Indian Air Force : Updates & Discussions

I guess IAF is thinking of retiring the An-32 fleet with a mix of C-295s and this new MTA in the near future. We are having close to 105 An-32 and previously we planned on having ~45 MTA so the rest of numbers will be filled by C-295. Though, I want C-390 to be selected as the MTA but yeah lets see what happens.
 
  • Like
Reactions: marich01
I guess IAF is thinking of retiring the An-32 fleet with a mix of C-295s and this new MTA in the near future. We are having close to 105 An-32 and previously we planned on having ~45 MTA so the rest of numbers will be filled by C-295. Though, I want C-390 to be selected as the MTA but yeah lets see what happens.
There was a fully developed aircraft called AN70 from Ukraine. It was similar in class with A400, we should have just brought that design.
 
Thought about this before & IAF apathy/fearfulness towards this. Given recent joint exercises & integrated use of assets I wonder if this is on.

 
  • Like
Reactions: Rajput Lion
In effect what he's saying is that they won't be waiting for FOC before induction. If these FA's prove certain basic parameters , they'd be inducted. The rest of the process of testing & certification can follow post induction. I recall Indranil , Nilesh Rane , Rohit Vats , S Jha & basically all of the BRF gang argue for it between the IOC to FOC transition in the Mk-1 .

Glad to see it happen now & glad IAF for once is being pragmatic & sensible about the whole issue . First real good news of 2023.

Pls note the date . 2022 ille , 2023 . @Sathya
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sathya
In effect what he's saying is that they won't be waiting for FOC before induction. If these FA's prove certain basic parameters , they'd be inducted. The rest of the process of testing & certification can follow post induction. I recall Indranil , Nilesh Rane , Rohit Vats , S Jha & basically all of the BRF gang argue for it between the IOC to FOC transition in the Mk-1 .

Glad to see it happen now & glad IAF for once is being pragmatic & sensible about the whole issue . First real good news of 2023.

Pls note the date . 2022 ille , 2023 . @Sathya
Don't take anything for granted. Even if PM Modi says it.

Tejas Trainer as per someone I talked to says realistic 1st flight is last quarter of 2023.

By 2024 Feb people are claiming Tejas MK1A production start. From now to that promised time, its 12 months. 18 trainers in 12 months ?

And if I go accordingly to my pessimistic/realistic friend, 18 trainers in 4 months ? Is it possible?
 
Don't take anything for granted. Even if PM Modi says it.

Tejas Trainer as per someone I talked to says realistic 1st flight is last quarter of 2023.

By 2024 Feb people are claiming Tejas MK1A production start. From now to that promised time, its 12 months. 18 trainers in 12 months ?

And if I go accordingly to my pessimistic/realistic friend, 18 trainers in 4 months ? Is it possible?
A few questions -

If I'm not mistaken the entire lot of Mk-1s except for the trainers have been manufactured. Why're the assembly lines empty assuming the trainers will start coming from the beginning of the 4th qtr of this calendar yr?

Secondly, granting the above assumption to be true , what was the original schedule ? IIRC they were to mfg the entire lot of trainers in F. Y-2023-24. That's 18 trainers in 12 months or was there supposed to be some sort of overlap between mfg of trainers & Mk-1a?

Isn't Mk-1a supposed to get 2 lines enabling 25 nos per annum? Eventually these would be utilised to mfg Mk-2.

Accepting your friend's assumption to be true, isn't it a fact that almost all the sub assembly's happen at the vendor's factory with final assembly of these sub assembly's being done at HAL followed by testing & certifying the plane post successful flight trials ? Since most of the work is done outside, isn't it theoretically possible to assemble 3-4 trainers per month?

Finally, this is the ACM making a statement. Shouldn't his words be given some value? Pls note I'm not denying your word of caution. After all this is India. Anything can happen out here.
 
A few questions -

If I'm not mistaken the entire lot of Mk-1s except for the trainers have been manufactured. Why're the assembly lines empty assuming the trainers will start coming from the beginning of the 4th qtr of this calendar yr?

Secondly, granting the above assumption to be true , what was the original schedule ? IIRC they were to mfg the entire lot of trainers in F. Y-2023-24. That's 18 trainers in 12 months or was there supposed to be some sort of overlap between mfg of trainers & Mk-1a?

Isn't Mk-1a supposed to get 2 lines enabling 25 nos per annum? Eventually these would be utilised to mfg Mk-2.

Accepting your friend's assumption to be true, isn't it a fact that almost all the sub assembly's happen at the vendor's factory with final assembly of these sub assembly's being done at HAL followed by testing & certifying the plane post successful flight trials ? Since most of the work is done outside, isn't it theoretically possible to assemble 3-4 trainers per month?

Finally, this is the ACM making a statement. Shouldn't his words be given some value? Pls note I'm not denying your word of caution. After all this is India. Anything can happen out here.
According to claims and promises we should have had 1st 4 trainers in service by end of last quarter of 2022 only.

And I am not saying that anybody is presenting wrong facts. The people in various chairs are to give out positive expected outcomes. And I am also not saying that only HAL is responsible or IAF is responsible. It's a cumulative result of everyone's actions.

And for production lines, we have 8 + 8 + 3 = 19 production capacity. Same will be used for Tejas MK1A.

Production of Tejas MK1A can be improved as the 2nd production line with current capacity of 8 airframes a year could be expanded (some claims doubled). But for that we need to like order atleast 40 more Tejas MK1A.
 
In effect what he's saying is that they won't be waiting for FOC before induction. If these FA's prove certain basic parameters , they'd be inducted. The rest of the process of testing & certification can follow post induction. I recall Indranil , Nilesh Rane , Rohit Vats , S Jha & basically all of the BRF gang argue for it between the IOC to FOC transition in the Mk-1 .

Glad to see it happen now & glad IAF for once is being pragmatic & sensible about the whole issue . First real good news of 2023.

Pls note the date . 2022 ille , 2023 . @Sathya

I don't understand how can Amca production start 2-3 years after roll out, not even first flight??

Even the production agencies say 3 years after contract signature
 
According to claims and promises we should have had 1st 4 trainers in service by end of last quarter of 2022 only.

Last Qtr of F.Y - 2022 ends on 31 Mar'23. There's a month a half left .

And I am not saying that anybody is presenting wrong facts. The people in various chairs are to give out positive expected outcomes.

They're there to give relatively honest updates not feel good stories . Politicians out there are supposed to narrate feel good stories . Which is why they don't enjoy much credibility .



And I am also not saying that only HAL is responsible or IAF is responsible. It's a cumulative result of everyone's actions.

Depends on time & various other factors .

And for production lines, we have 8 + 8 + 3 = 19 production capacity. Same will be used for Tejas MK1A.

That's a welcome development . So what's the problem in mfg the trainers ? We can churn out 18 nos in a year .

Production of Tejas MK1A can be improved as the 2nd production line with current capacity of 8 airframes a year could be expanded (some claims doubled). But for that we need to like order atleast 40 more Tejas MK1A.

The way things are progressing you can be sure the IAF will place an order for exactly that amount if not more but you know when will they do that ? At the 11th hour meaning around 2028 or later thus pushing up the costs & extending the delivery T/L . As S.Jha put it & is common knowledge with anyone associated with mfg , the Indian defence establishment has absolutely no idea about how it works. And by the looks of it , they don't even want to learn & improve.
 
I don't understand how can Amca production start 2-3 years after roll out, not even first flight??

Even the production agencies say 3 years after contract signature
Roll-out would mean flight trials commence a yr after roll-out. Basic flight parameters can be verified within a yr or at least a good idea can be had before they begin to expand the envelope. Which means they can start with the paperwork & negotiations within 2 yrs of roll-out. If the paperwork & negotiations take a couple of yrs accompanied by signature on contract that's 4 yrs after roll-out.

Negotiations of long lead items & other LRUs / sub assemblys can begin the day negotiations for the FA start as the quantity is known , the production agency has a good idea of the own cost based on previous purchases . Both these negotiations run concurrently & Once the price negotiations of the FA is concluded, say 3 yrs after roll-out , orders for these long lead items & other sundries can be placed .

Meanwhile the real paperwork for placing a formal purchase order & signing of the agreement begins once the price negotiations are concluded . Assuming that is concluded in a yr that's 4 yrs since roll-out.

Between the 5th & 6th yr of the roll -out you can expect the 1st production variant. Once that is tested & certified by which time the prototypes should have completed 5yrs of trials & be on the verge of certification if not certified. Then it's only a matter of ironing out production kinks & scaling up .
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sathya
Roll-out would mean flight trials commence a yr after roll-out. Basic flight parameters can be verified within a yr or at least a good idea can be had before they begin to expand the envelope. Which means they can start with the paperwork & negotiations within 2 yrs of roll-out. If the paperwork & negotiations take a couple of yrs accompanied by signature on contract that's 4 yrs after roll-out.

Negotiations of long lead items & other LRUs / sub assemblys can begin the day negotiations for the FA start as the quantity is known , the production agency has a good idea of the own cost based on previous purchases . Both these negotiations run concurrently & Once the price negotiations of the FA is concluded, say 3 yrs after roll-out , orders for these long lead items & other sundries can be placed .

Meanwhile the real paperwork for placing a formal purchase order & signing of the agreement begins once the price negotiations are concluded . Assuming that is concluded in a yr that's 4 yrs since roll-out.

Between the 5th & 6th yr of the roll -out you can expect the 1st production variant. Once that is tested & certified by which time the prototypes should have completed 5yrs of trials & be on the verge of certification if not certified. Then it's only a matter of ironing out production kinks & scaling up .

Personally I think this is possible with Mk2, However for Amca i am still doubtful.

Anyways I agree with necessity of shortening the cycle.. Chinese are rolling out generation after generation .. We cant sit on one generation for a long time.
 
Personally I think this is possible with Mk2, However for Amca i am still doubtful.

It can be done with both .

Anyways I agree with necessity of shortening the cycle.. Chinese are rolling out generation after generation .. We cant sit on one generation for a long time.

Basically this is what the KAI is following with their 4.5 Gen ++ / 5th Gen FA program . Ditto with the TAI program. In both these cases they've very good & vastly experienced consultants namely LM & BAe respectively.

The latter well versed with the development cum production cycle know precisely which stages need emphasis & clearance during flight trials & which can be sorted out later during production related trials.

We don't have that luxury as we lack experience nor do we have any such external consultants. This is the reason why all such knowledge base is being built in house & all the development agencies like DRDO / ADA , mfg - HAL & client- IAF are erring on the side of caution thus stretching the T/Ls .

As we keep rolling out programs consistently , our development to production cycle will also see compressed T/L .

China's followed much the same path as we are undertaking.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Sathya