India-Russia Relations

Bali78

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Dec 26, 2017
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Just like 1929 and 1969, lol:ROFLMAO:
Russia doesn’t have a choice. Few years back I predicted in this forum that Putin’s ego will result in Russia becoming side kick of China. Unfortunately it happened much faster than I anticipated. Question is how quickly we can replace our Russian equipments?? It will be terribly painful and expensive!!
 

Parthu

Gessler
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Dec 1, 2017
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The Russians deserve everything that's coming to them:


If they think they will be seen as an equal partner by the PRC, or god forbid, being seen as in charge of the relationship, they are terribly mistaken.

The Ukraine misadventure & Putin's miscalculations will end this iteration of Russia. Not unlike WW1 & Tsar Nicholas II's miscalculations ended the Empire or the Afghan misadventure and Gorbachev's miscalculations ended the USSR.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
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Russia doesn’t have a choice. Few years back I predicted in this forum that Putin’s ego will result in Russia becoming side kick of China. Unfortunately it happened much faster than I anticipated. Question is how quickly we can replace our Russian equipments?? It will be terribly painful and expensive!!

The opposite. Russia holds all the cards.

If Russia doesn't get what it wants peacefully, they can get it militarily. They have a lot of options. Let's assume all three powers decide to become their enemies.

1. Europe can be dealt with via insurgencies in the Baltics and the Balkans, even Africa, where Wagner has been creating problems, the French in particular.

2. China can be dealt with through multiple ways. They are militarily inferior to the Russians today. Parity may only be achieved by 2030 before aiming for a superiority after 2035, so that's more than a decade away, not counting Russia's attempts at militarisation. If the Russians properly militarise again, then China won't achieve parity for a very long time. So China cannot get into a direct conflict with Russia today. Which means, the Russians can always start an insurgency in Xinjiang unchallenged.

In both cases, neither Europe nor China are capable of initiating war with Russia due to different reasons. If they do prefer to go to war, then that's fine with Russia, they will have no choice anyway.

3. This one is the ultimate. The various means they have to pull the US into conflict with others is insane. Two of their patsy countries are NoKo and Iran. All the Russians have to do is arm and fund them enough to start creating problems in East Asia and the ME, enough to drag the US in. No/SoKo can drag the Chinese in as well.

They have other means too, like making space unusable, only nuclear-powered satellites can function reasonably well in such an environment. They can cut internet connections via taking out submarine cables. And worse comes to worst, they can start destroying oil pipelines via non-state actors and severely disrupting the energy market. This is basically a Russia vs the world scenario.

Why? Any attempt at curtailing the Russian economy beyond what's already done will see them resorting to hostilities, that's the no-choice bit. And they have plenty of cards for that.

As for our dependency on Russian weapons, it's not gonna go away for a very long time. We have three areas where we depend on them. One is outright purchases of entire systems, like the T-90 and the S-400. That's gonna dissappear well before 2030, at least in terms of contracts signed.

The second is spares and supplies. With Russia militarising, they plan to move spares and supplies for not just the Indian market but also the global market. It's unlikely to be 100%, like the MKIs, but it will be enough to end more than 90% of the current imports from Russia by 2030.

The third is a bit sticky. It's R&D and MLUs. Cooperation here is not expected to end until 2035-40. We gotta buy new Brahmos missiles, production of which will go on for at least 10+ years, at least until 2035-40. And then we have a whole string of aircraft and helicopters that need upgrades; MKI, Mig-29K, IL-76/78 and Mi-17. There's the Talwars and Vikramaditya upgrades. They are involved in other R&D programs within DRDO as well, the biggest of which is SSBNs.

So the greatest dependence is this decade. But by 2030-35, it would begin to reduce drastically, by 2040, its impact on our security calculus will be almost nil due to obsolescence. After 2040, only some MKIs, S-400s and T-90s will need upgrades. Everything else will have been replaced.
 
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randomradio

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Nov 30, 2017
19,309
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India
The Russians deserve everything that's coming to them:


If they think they will be seen as an equal partner by the PRC, or god forbid, being seen as in charge of the relationship, they are terribly mistaken.

The Ukraine misadventure & Putin's miscalculations will end this iteration of Russia. Not unlike WW1 & Tsar Nicholas II's miscalculations ended the Empire or the Afghan misadventure and Gorbachev's miscalculations ended the USSR.

I'm giving their current business-as-usual relations until 2030. It's all tits-up after that.
 

A Person

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Dec 1, 2017
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If Russia doesn't get what it wants peacefully, they can get it militarily.
With what army? The one they destroyed in Ukraine?

Europe can be dealt with via insurgencies in the Baltics and the Balkans
Nope. Insurgencies in the Baltics is a complete fantasy with no substance. In the Balkan they can get the Serbs to cause troubles in Bosnia and Kosovo but that will just end poorly for them; the entire place is surrounded by NATO and nobody objects to bombing the Serbs.
even Africa, where Wagner has been creating problems
We stopped giving a shit about Africa. The instability they foster will mostly create problems for China, not for Europe, which has stopped investing in there.
China can be dealt with through multiple ways. They are militarily inferior to the Russians today.
That's a funny joke. Russia's only military strength is in numbers, and that's even more of a strength for China. Especially so on the border between Russia and China, as it's a very sparsely populated area of Russia with only two railroad lines linking east and west. China could easily cripple Russian logistics and achieve complete superiority locally.
Which means, the Russians can always start an insurgency in Xinjiang unchallenged.
Insurgency is your silver bullet by which Russia wins all the time, everywhere; I'm not convinced. Xinjiang is locked up tight and very closely watched.

But even then, why couldn't the Chinese start insurgencies all over Russia in response? That seems like an easy task.
 

randomradio

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Nov 30, 2017
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With what army? The one they destroyed in Ukraine?

All that Cold War era junk? They are beginning their modernisation.

Nope. Insurgencies in the Baltics is a complete fantasy with no substance. In the Balkan they can get the Serbs to cause troubles in Bosnia and Kosovo but that will just end poorly for them; the entire place is surrounded by NATO and nobody objects to bombing the Serbs.

Then they will stick with macro-managing terrorist attacks.

We stopped giving a shit about Africa. The instability they foster will mostly create problems for China, not for Europe, which has stopped investing in there.

That would mean they are succeeding. Anyway, the US wants to enter Africa with India and Japan.

That's a funny joke. Russia's only military strength is in numbers, and that's even more of a strength for China. Especially so on the border between Russia and China, as it's a very sparsely populated area of Russia with only two railroad lines linking east and west. China could easily cripple Russian logistics and achieve complete superiority locally.

Three actually. And a fourth one through Kazakh towards Xinjiang. Plus, as problems slowly creep up, the Russians will respond with more local forces and infrastructure, it's not difficult to do. India's already doing a pretty insane job in the Himalayas since 2017, building in Siberia is a lot easier.

And it's not the army, but the navy that's the real threat. It's gonna take a long time for the Chinese to match Russia's SSN fleet.

And, as I said, the Russians only need to destabilise the region via NoKo. They don't have to do anything on thier own.

Insurgency is your silver bullet by which Russia wins all the time, everywhere; I'm not convinced. Xinjiang is locked up tight and very closely watched.

Insurgencies are extremely long, unnecessarily bloody, and very, very pointless, outside of getting political brownie points. Which is why it works almost every time. And keeping the region tight only means more targets to kill. India's borders are fenced and locked up tight with far more troops in a much smaller area, but infiltration still happens. And Russia can fund an excessive number of Islamic heroes who want to win back their territory, no problem. Unlike in the Baltics and Balkans, even Belarus, Russia doesn't have to care about any of the parties involved.

There is no rule saying an insurgency should be a local struggle. Local sympathisers can be cultivated later.

A huge advantage Islamists have in Xinjiang is other than it being quite well populated with over 25 million people, more than half are potential targets, while the other half hate them. Plus the Chinese will react to it with heavy vehicles and aircraft in the beginning, extremely juicy targets for insurgents, before finally getting into a fistfight with them. Once it gets bloody enough, the Chinese will start feeling the blowback from the Islamic world.

But even then, why couldn't the Chinese start insurgencies all over Russia in response? That seems like an easy task.

Sure they can. But Russia has dealt with some already. But it won't be to the same size and scale as Xinjiang. Hell, even the Chechens will fight in Xinjiang.
 

Bali78

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Dec 26, 2017
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Defeating Russia is the ultimate target of the Chinese. How people don't see it is beyond me:rolleyes:
China doesn’t want Russia to lose. That will severely weaken its camp.

To maximize the benefits, China wants Russia to win, but at a huge cost. That will ensure 1. West’s confidence is shaken and will be seriously reluctant to interfere in Taiwan 2. Russia will be an ally for long time who provides cheap energy and a reasonably sized captive market when orders from west are drying up.
 

Rajput Lion

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Sep 23, 2022
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China doesn’t want Russia to lose. That will severely weaken its camp.

To maximize the benefits, China wants Russia to win, but at a huge cost. That will ensure 1. West’s confidence is shaken and will be seriously reluctant to interfere in Taiwan 2. Russia will be an ally for long time who provides cheap energy and a reasonably sized captive market when orders from west are drying up.
I'm not talking about the current Russo-Ukraine war. But the Chinese future plans. Defeating and humiliating Russia is their ultimate target.

Read this: Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years

Even though the link is Indian, yet they're quoting articles from Chinese sources.
 

Bali78

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randomradio

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China doesn’t want Russia to lose. That will severely weaken its camp.

To maximize the benefits, China wants Russia to win, but at a huge cost. That will ensure 1. West’s confidence is shaken and will be seriously reluctant to interfere in Taiwan 2. Russia will be an ally for long time who provides cheap energy and a reasonably sized captive market when orders from west are drying up.

Russia's performance in Ukraine will have no bearing on Taiwan. Whether the Russians win or lose, all their attention will be focused on the region for the coming decade, so that fulfills one of the US' main objectives, ie, driving a permanent wedge between Europe and Russia.
 
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