Brexit and Future of UK : Discussions

(for some reason the twitter embed is failing, so click here)


No-deal Brexit is coming.

Since May is incapable of getting the hard and soft brexiters to agree on a compromise, and since the remainers are still living in denial by thinking a lack of deal will mean Brexit is canceled, the EU no longer believes a deal can possibly be reached in time, and is warning everyone to prepare for it.
 
But it's a problem for Ireland, not for EU! So negociations will be between UK and Ireland with a risk of war at the border between North and south Ireland. :eek:
Nope, I'm talking about the trade between ROI and EU. Without the freedom of our ports, there isn't the capacity to support the current level of trade and without the use of our airspace, Dublin to Paris would take twice as long. We can simply choose to have no border between NI and ROI regardless of the deal, and leave it to the EU to force Ireland to have a border, thus breaching the divorce agreement and nullifying it, as well as pissing off the various factions. Then you'll be short another £40bn as well as having tariffs on £400bn/year worth off exports to the UK, which we will collect and use to rebuild public services and infrastructure, along with the £11bn net we will no longer be paying you each year. Since services aren't included, only 5% of our GDP depends on goods exports to the EU, whereas your goods exports to us would amount to 15% of our GDP, if jobs are to move (either directly or indirectly) and avoid tariffs. You will lose, have no doubt. It is mathematically impossible for us to lose a trade war.
 
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(for some reason the twitter embed is failing, so click here)


No-deal Brexit is coming.

Since May is incapable of getting the hard and soft brexiters to agree on a compromise, and since the remainers are still living in denial by thinking a lack of deal will mean Brexit is canceled, the EU no longer believes a deal can possibly be reached in time, and is warning everyone to prepare for it.
Good, because it is coming. Only they underestimate how much it will affect them.
 
Britain’s imperial fantasies have given us Brexit

In his recent book Behind Diplomatic Lines, Patrick Wright, a former head of the UK diplomatic service, provides an illuminating account of Margaret Thatcher’s worldview. The former British premier wanted South Africa to be a “whites-only state”, and believed the Vietnamese boat people should be pushed into the sea before they reached Hong Kong. In addition, the late prime minister was particularly gripped by “Germanophobia”.

“She seems to be obsessed by a feeling that German-speakers are going to dominate the [European] community,” Wright writes. “Any talk of German reunification is anathema to her.” At one point it got so bad that the former foreign secretary Douglas Hurd claimed: “Cabinet now consists of three items: parliamentary affairs, home affairs and xenophobia.”

So when the outgoing German ambassador to Britain claimed this week that Brexiteers were fixated on the second world war, he was on to something. Referring to the popularity of films such as Darkest Hour and Dunkirk, Peter Ammon said: “History is always full of ambiguities and ups and downs, but if you focus only on how Britain stood alone in the [second world] war, how it stood against dominating Germany, well, it is a nice story, but does not solve any problem of today.” (If the second world war taught us anything, it was that you couldn’t stand alone. They weren’t called “the allies” for nothing.)

There were some sound reasons for voting to leave the EUalthough the campaign was rarely fought on them, and wasn’t won because of them. And this nostalgia for a particular, and peculiar, version of our history long preceded Brexit. Remarking on the chant “Two world wars and one World Cup” that rang out whenever England played Germany at football, academic Paul Gilroy wrote, in After Empire: “The boast to which the phrase gives voice is integral to a larger denial. It declares nothing significant changed during the course of Britain’s downwardly mobile 20th century … We are being required to admit that the nations which triumphed in 1918 and 1945 live on somewhere unseen, but palpable.”

But Ammon was only half right. For while the Brexit vote was certainly underpinned by a melancholic longing for a glorious past, the era it sought to relive was less the second world war than the longer, less distinguished or openly celebrated period of empire. For if memories of the war made some feel more defiant, recollections of empire made them deluded. Our colonial past, and the inability to come to terms with its demise, gave many the impression that we are far bigger, stronger and more influential than we really are. At some point they convinced themselves that the reason we are at the centre of most world maps is because the Earth revolves around us, not because it was us who drew the maps.

It was through this distorted lens (“Let’s put the Great back in Great Britain”) that a majority voted to leave. Ammon puts the fantasies down to war stories from Brexiteers’ childhoods. “Obviously every state is defined by its history, and some define themselves by what their father did in the war, and it gives them great personal pride.” But British history didn’t stop after the war. Empire was more recent and, for a considerable element of the Brexiteers’ campaign, more personal.

Douglas Carswell, the sole Ukip MP during the referendum, was raised in Uganda; Arron Banks, who bankrolled Ukip and the xenophobic Leave.EU campaign, spent his childhood in South Africa, where his father ran sugar estates, as well as in Kenya, Ghana and Somalia; Henry Bolton, the current head of Ukip, was born and raised partly in Kenya; Robert Oxley, head of media for Vote Leave, has strong family ties to Zimbabwe. One can only speculate about how much impact these formative years had on their political outlook, (Carswell attributes his libertarianism to Idi Amin’s “arbitrary rule”) but it would be odd to conclude they didn’t have any.

But if echoes of empire reverberated through the campaign, they have also framed our negotiating strategy. The past 18 months have illustrated the journey from hubris to humiliation. For a couple of generations, we have seen our attributes and others’ weaknesses through the wrong side of a magnifying glass; now our diminished state is becoming fully apparent, and, like Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, reciting Kipling in Myanmar, we are struggling to adjust.

This awakening would be funny (abroad they find it hilarious) if it were not so consequential. Johnson told the Commons the EU27 could “go whistle”for an extortionate Brexit bill. They whistled; now we will cough, to the tune of £35-40bn.
During her 2017 election campaign, Theresa May, channelling her inner Thatcher, boasted about being a “bloody difficult woman”. “The next man to find that out will be Jean-Claude Juncker,” she claimed. In fact Juncker, the president of the European commission, and his team have found May more overwhelmed and befuddled than overwhelming and belligerent. After one Downing Street dinner, European negotiators concluded that she “does not live on planet Mars but rather in a galaxy very far away”.

In a recent private meeting between May and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, the two leaders reportedly found themselves in a tragicomic conversational loop. May kept telling Merkel: “Make me an offer.” To which Merkel would reply: “But you’re leaving – we don’t have to make you an offer. Come on, what do you want?” To which May would retort: “Make me an offer.”

A change of leader won’t make this right. Lacking authority and coherence, haemorrhaging relevance and credibility, May is a faithful reflection not only of her government but of the country at this moment. Brexiteers have ostensibly got what they want: Brexit. They assumed we could dictate the terms; we can’t. They assumed we could just walk away; we can’t. They had no more plans for leaving than a dog chasing a car has to drive it. They are now finding out how little sovereignty means for a country the size of Britain in a neoliberal globalised economy beyond blue passports (which we could have had anyway). What we need isn’t a change of leader but a change of direction.

May is no more personally to blame for the mess we are in with Europe than Anthony Eden was for the mess with the 1956 Suez crisis – which provides a more salient parallel for Britain than the second world war. It took Britain and France overplaying their hand, in punishing Egypt for seizing the Suez canal from colonial control and nationalising it, to realise their imperial influence had been eclipsed by the US and was now in decline.

“France and England will never be powers comparable to the United States,” the West German chancellor at the time, Konrad Adenauer, told the French foreign minister. “Not Germany either. There remains to them only one way of playing a decisive role in the world: that is to unite Europe … We have no time to waste; Europe will be your revenge.”
Once again, Britain has overplayed its hand. Preferring to live in the past rather than learn from it, we find ourselves diminished in the present and clueless about the future.

Britain’s imperial fantasies have given us Brexit | Gary Younge
So rather than respond to the points I raised, you copy and pasted someone else's half-baked opinion in order to avoid actually thinking for yourself. This is a very contagious problem these days, in fact, it is the new AIDS (Attributed Intellect Disease Syndrome). Without their own ideas, the sufferer copy and pastes a story from someone else and attributes it to their own intellect.
 
We are definitely bringing back lbft and imperial hp for car specifications. That is for sure.
 
So rather than respond to the points I raised, you copy and pasted someone else's half-baked opinion in order to avoid actually thinking for yourself. This is a very contagious problem these days, in fact, it is the new AIDS (Attributed Intellect Disease Syndrome). Without their own ideas, the sufferer copy and pastes a story from someone else and attributes it to their own intellect.
I put an article up which I found would explain the reason why old farts voted for Brexit - as usual you haven’t even taken time the trouble and read it - sums up Brexiteers - you sir are a prime piece of gammon.
Have a nice evening
 
I put an article up which I found would explain the reason why old farts voted for Brexit - as usual you haven’t even taken time the trouble and read it - sums up Brexiteers - you sir are a prime piece of gammon.
Have a nice evening
It doesn't though. It's merely a long-winded accusation written by someone with far too much time on their hands. It does nothing to address any of the economic, social or security issues I have raised in this thread. An equivalent response would be, "well the EU rules were written by an ex-Nazi party lawyer, Merkel was a members of the East German stasi propaganda bureau and Macron has a Napoleon complex, therefore I'm out." The only difference would be that my accusation is actually more factual, since 2 of the 3 facts check out and only the 3rd is an assertion.
 
The EU likes to portray itself as a non-protectionist entity, but it is anything but in reality. The moment we voted to leave, it was already threatening non-tariff barriers and a whole raft of other crap. There is no such thing as free trade with the EU, you always pay for it, and members of the EU itself pay the highest price - that of their country.
 
Well if I understand correctly, free movement Irish peoples is part of Good Friday agreement which ended the IRA campaign.
So we will allow free movement in Ireland regardless of the deal/no deal and leave it to the EU to block it, then it will be ruled illegal under the terms of the divorce agreement, which means Ireland will be operating under a different set of conditions to the rest of the EU with respect to customs and the oh so precious 'integrity of the single market' will be shattered.

Then we will use the trap below to lure France away.

 
Then we will use the trap below to lure France away.


Mouths:eek:!?! In my Polandball?

d56.jpg
 
North Ireland would leave UK.
You really have no idea at all. There is a strong majority in favour of remaining in the UK in NI. 60% of Northern Ireland's exports go to the rest of the UK. The amount going to the EU is barely even existent. And aside from that, Northern Ireland has a deficit of about 20% of GDP. You really need to research your facts.

https://fullfact.org/media/uploads/NI sales graph.PNG


It's more likely that ROI would leave the EU.

Ireland’s economy reiles on UK trade - a Brexit could be ruinous
https://www.dfa.ie/media/dfa/alldfa...ies/ourwork/statevisit2014/Economic-Facts.pdf
 
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Nope, I'm talking about the trade between ROI and EU. Without the freedom of our ports, there isn't the capacity to support the current level of trade and without the use of our airspace, Dublin to Paris would take twice as long. We can simply choose to have no border between NI and ROI regardless of the deal, and leave it to the EU to force Ireland to have a border, thus breaching the divorce agreement and nullifying it, as well as pissing off the various factions. Then you'll be short another £40bn as well as having tariffs on £400bn/year worth off exports to the UK, which we will collect and use to rebuild public services and infrastructure, along with the £11bn net we will no longer be paying you each year. Since services aren't included, only 5% of our GDP depends on goods exports to the EU, whereas your goods exports to us would amount to 15% of our GDP, if jobs are to move (either directly or indirectly) and avoid tariffs. You will lose, have no doubt. It is mathematically impossible for us to lose a trade war.

The way I see it, companies will be forced to divide their production between EU and the UK for their respective markets. So overall trade between the EU and UK will reduce in exchange for domestic production. The same with services.
 
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The way I see it, companies will be forced to divide their production between EU and the UK for their respective markets. So overall trade between the EU and UK will reduce in exchange for domestic production. The same with services.
Yes and that would leave the UK as the winner, since the EU exports twice as much to us, as we do to them.
 
Oh really, and I suppose Indian independence was a toxic combination of food poisoning and a nostalgia for ancient Indian empires too? Don't pretend to know anything about something which you have no idea about. The majority of Sikhs in the UK voted for Brexit and Hindus were split 50:50. Even 33% of Muslims voted for Brexit. It was a cross-party, cross-race, cross religion vote.

The common feeling was that if you don't know how many people are coming each year, or where they're going, or how much tax and NI they'll be paying, or how much benefits they'll be claiming, then you can't possibly plan for or afford the expansion of public services or infrastructure to cope, and people have observed a deterioration even where funding has increased. Secondly, EU free movement doesn't even allow countries to refuse convicted felons, mafia affiliates and terrorists entry. Lastly, EU free trade is not free because we were paying for it. The only question is whether the taxpayer should pay for it (as per EU rules), or whether the people actually buying imported goods should pay for it (as per WTO rules). I.e. whether low income families should be subsidising BMW purchases for others, or whether they should pay the tariffs themselves. And aside from that, the US and UK will always oppose bloc-type organisations that oppress the sovereignty of nation states, especially if it's our own.

On the economic side, there are far more EU jobs reliant on free trade with the UK than there are UK jobs reliant on free trade with the UK, especially in the goods sector. Furthermore the EU relies on the UK to connect trade to Ireland. This could get very complicated for them if they continue being pricks.

The followign is the sequence of Brexit events, as has been identified by investigative reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein:

a) Queen mother and Queen hatch plan to reclaim the lost British territories and colonial empire
b) They call Camerron to brief him and ask him to set up referrendum, Boris and Farrage are ordered to lead leave campaign
c) David Cameroon protests pointing out that European Union has learnt from history and was against another colonial enterprise. All ethical considerations of cameroon are ignored by the pair
d) Queen mother threatens to have him jailed and orders that EU should be removed from Britain and Brexit referrendum go ahead is given
e) Juncker, privately informed of these above events makes an impassioned plea to queen. He is silenced with threat of Jail/ even assasination
f) Harry is ordered to marry Meghan Markle because queen thinks she may need more money to carry out her plans and dowry coming through her succesful acting career can help
g) British people, scared of losing jobs vote for staying in EU
h) Queen mother and queen rig elections and order BBC to show it as close win for Leave.
 
Yes and that would leave the UK as the winner, since the EU exports twice as much to us, as we do to them.

No- that's because EU has a strong industrial base and makes high quality products that the British are desperate to buy. Now Brits will have to pay more to buy the same products which will ruin economy.
 
No- that's because EU has a strong industrial base and makes high quality products that the British are desperate to buy. Now Brits will have to pay more to buy the same products which will ruin economy.
Nope, jobs will be moved here and local production will increase to fill the vacuum. And if imports do continue, the people buying them will pay the price of trade and the taxpayer will receive it, rather than the taxpayer subsidising their purchases as per the current system.

figure-eu-imports-productgroups-tariffs.png


http://www.eucolait.eu/userfiles/fi...n future EU-UK trade relations 2017_02_15.pdf

Existing trade flows between the UK and the rest of the EU are very significant. The UK annually ‘exports’ more than 1 billion € worth of dairy products to other EU Member States, whereas ‘imports’ from the EU-27 account for more than € 3 billion.
So 35% of £3bn? That's >£1bn in tariffs we'd collect on dairy products alone, while our dairy exports would only result in £350m being collected, and by the EU not the recipient countries.

A further £3.8bn would be collected on EU motor vehicle imports.
Motor vehicle trade between the UK and its main EU partners | ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association
 
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