Brexit and Future of UK : Discussions

LoneWolfSandeep said:
EU is not expected to face more than 0.1-0.2% of GDP slump, being a bigger market, unlike UK negative GDP growth, but like i said Time will tell
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Some people's maths must be very bad then because the EU is only a $13-14tr economy without the UK. Aside from the 20% hit it takes as soon as the UK leaves, 2-3% of rest of EU GDP is composed of exports to the UK, we are their biggest export market accounting for 17% of all their exports. Some countries in the EU however have a much bigger share of their exports going to the UK, e.g. for the Netherlands it's about 6% of GDP.

Italy is already in recession and has 1.5% of GDP worth of exports going to the UK. For Portugal it's 2% of GDP. All these economies are heavily in debt already.

You're very mistaken if you think the problems will be all one way. The fear campaign has prepared the British but the same cannot be said for other EU members.
 
BMD said:
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Agree on Italy part, having gone through more economists assessment, but i found Italy is not alone in present EU -
Greece/Belgium/Spain/Italy/Britain are a collapse waiting to happen with well over 110% debt to GDP ratio & slow growth rates, which is totally unsustainable in future, more its bailed out in future, more risk for bailer, to sink with ship in future. Or become a cotangent.
Yes 4out5 such countries will be in EU still, post Brexit & be a serious threat for spillover collapse in rest of EU countries, if more bailouts are done in future, which in some time in future will likely happen, due to unsustainable debt servicing.
On other hand EU will have vested interest to keep the agony going to keep Greece/Belgium/Spain/Italy going for union sake, hope & best of luck for Britain post Brexit with $3.7 trillion debt @132%Debt/GDP ratio & expected negative growth post brexit, which will definitely balloon Debt to GDP ratio even further. But agree all things said, Greece/Spain&Italy will still remain worse off than Britain.
Thank god India $534billion debt is only 18%Debt/GDP & fast decreasing further, due to sustained 7.5%+ growth rate & negligiable new borrowing post liberalization in present century.
 
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LoneWolfSandeep said:
Agree on Italy part, having gone through more economists assessment, but i found Italy is not alone in present EU -
Greece/Belgium/Spain/Italy/Britain are a collapse waiting to happen with well over 110% debt to GDP ratio & slow growth rates, which is totally unsustainable in future, more its bailed out in future, more risk for bailer, to sink with ship in future. Or become a cotangent.
Yes 4out5 such countries will be in EU still, post Brexit & be a serious threat for spillover collapse in rest of EU countries, if more bailouts are done in future, which in some time in future will likely happen, due to unsustainable debt servicing.
On other hand EU will have vested interest to keep the agony going to keep Greece/Belgium/Spain/Italy going for union sake, hope & best of luck for Britain post Brexit with $3.7 trillion debt @132%Debt/GDP ratio & expected negative growth post brexit, which will definitely balloon Debt to GDP ratio even further. But agree all things said, Greece/Spain&Italy will still remain worse off than Britain.
Thank god India $534billion debt is only 18%Debt/GDP & fast decreasing further, due to sustained 7.5%+ growth rate & negligiable new borrowing post liberalization in present century.
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Germany keeps Greece and co. going for the sake of Deutsche Bank.
 
What a pathetic, backward looking country we've allowed the petty nationalists to create. Our weak and deluded Prime Minister chops and changes her stance at every whim of her equally deluded right-wing party members.

None of them have the slightest notion of a sensible long term plan for the future of our country, instead they just bathe in a deep-seated hatred of our nearest neighbours as if that was reason enough to destroy the fabric of Britain.

Labour have equally failed to show the proper and sensible leadership we so desperately need, and instead Corbyn and his disciples prefer to watch May and the ERG destroy the country in the hope that they are allowed to rebuild it from the ashes into a socialist heaven.

Where does this leave sensible folk who neither want to crash out of the most successful peace project the world has ever known, one that has over the decades improved the life of millions of Europeans, nor do we want to revert to seeing state run monoliths that answer to no one.
The fantasy's of both the left and the right are about to destroy one of the most liberal, fair and open countries the world has created. It wasn't perfect but neither was it necessary for it to be razed to the ground.
 
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Emmanuel Macron refuses to postpone Brexit date
Google Translate

Theresa May requests a postponement of the Brexit date to June 30th. The French president will oppose it, effectively driving the European Council.
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For Macron, it is decided: it is necessary to stop refining and refuse to the British any postponement of the Brexit , planned on the date of March 29th. This is in any case the position he will express on Thursday at the European Council. In a letter dated March 20 addressed to Donald Tusk , the President of the Council, Theresa Mayclaims a postponement of Brexit to June 30, explaining that she still intends to propose the withdrawal agreement to the vote of the House of Commons but that he needs more time ...

In this crazy soap opera, Emmanuel Macron 's firm position would win the decision of the European Council. Indeed, on the issue of postponement, the 27 must be decided unanimously. It is therefore sufficient that only one Member State refuses to postpone the Brexit so that it will come on schedule, ie on 29 March. "At this point, let's try to decide," says the entourage of the French president.
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Macron pushed the English to an unprepared hard brexit on March 29, and it was going to be a huge chaos in the United Kingdom that attracted media attention throughout the campaign for the Europeans.
In short, a magnificent advertisement against the Eurosceptics in fashion "anyway, it's Europe or chaos, you just have to see the mess on the other side of the sleeve without us". :) :) :)
 
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Picdelamirand-oil said:
Macron pushed the English to an unprepared hard brexit on March 29, and it was going to be a huge chaos in the United Kingdom that attracted media attention throughout the campaign for the Europeans.
In short, a magnificent advertisement against the Eurosceptics in fashion "anyway, it's Europe or chaos, you just have to see the mess on the other side of the sleeve without us". :):):)
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Yeah. The Eurosceptics should be put in their place. The EU cannot survive another exit.
 
The deal can't even be voted on again until it's changed because the house speaker has ruled it so. So 29th of March it is, finally.
 
randomradio said:
Good. Even by June 30, there's not going to be an agreement of any sort.

Britain should just be happy with a Canada style FTA and be done with it after Brexit happens.
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There's not going to be an FTA because that only covers goods where the EU has a huge surplus. It will be WTO with lots of unhelpful NTBs relating to car imports.
 
Picdelamirand-oil said:
Macron pushed the English to an unprepared hard brexit on March 29, and it was going to be a huge chaos in the United Kingdom that attracted media attention throughout the campaign for the Europeans.
In short, a magnificent advertisement against the Eurosceptics in fashion "anyway, it's Europe or chaos, you just have to see the mess on the other side of the sleeve without us". :):):)
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He's not going to be as smart when people start losing jobs and having to pay more tax and the number of yellow vests quadruple.
 
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