Brexit and Future of UK : Discussions
- Thread starter Vergennes
- Start date
Way too idealistic if you think it can be done quickly.
For example, 51% of car exports go to the EU. Otoh, 12% of all cars produced in the EU go to the UK. Assuming trade stops completely due to higher prices, the UK loses 51% of its workforce while the EU loses 12%.
Similarly you can imagine the kind of job losses that will happen in the UK in the service industry like retail, the people involved in selling EU cars in the UK. Let's say a street has a JLR and a BMW showroom employing 10 each, selling the same number of cars. Let's assume all JLR cars in the showroom are locally made while BMW is imported. Now, if we consider BMW sales shift to zero and JLR sales double, that would mean BMW and all its UK employees are out of business. You have this wrong notion that all the BMW employees will switch to JLR, that's not going to happen. The only thing that will happen is JLR employees will have more work while the BMW employees are on the streets.
However, the way I see it, BMW will only have to pay 10% more under WTO, which is not a lot. So they will continue selling cars in the UK at a slightly higher price, after they cut some of their margin. Or they can even have it manufactured in a third world country and have it imported into the UK to compensate for the 10%. Either way, their business will keep going. But the UK companies may have to move production to a third world country in order to keep exporting cars to the EU, which is a huge loss to the British exchequer since we are talking about 51% of all car production in the UK moving out of the UK. Which means, the loss to the UK will be greater than to the EU.
Oh it won't be done quickly but it will be done. There will be pain before gain.
You're not looking at the absolute numbers which is what counts though. 2.5 million cars are exported to the UK from the EU, only 800,000 are exported to the EU from the UK. There will be a market 3x as big here as the previous export market after EU vehicles are all subjected to individual SVA testing.
Cars are generally stockpiled. New cars don't get sold within a day of leaving the production line. Many of them have been waiting to be sold without plates for a year.
Ultimately it won't be a choice if BMW doesn't move a production plant to the UK. BMW will be subject to individual SVA testing, which will put a 3 year wait on even basic 320d BMWs, with a fairly huge price hike too.
The tariffs are the issue, it's the non-tariff barriers. We no longer have to recognise type approval for EU cars, which would put them in the same category as the likes of grey imports from Japan, so they will all need an SVA test and there are a limited number of testing stations. This will restrict the rate of flow onto the UK market even if customers were happy to pay £1m for a BMW.
On top of that we'll save lots of money in many ways.
1) £11bn/year subscription.
2) £40bn divorce bill.
3) Keeping EU convicts in UK prisons.
4) Subsidising EU students at UK universities.
5) Sending benefits overseas.
6) Importing food from cheaper sources without tariffs.
7) New trade deals.
For the EU on the other hand there is no economic plus side to Brexit. They lose trade and money. In summary:
UK - Some win, some lose.
EU - All lose.
Last edited:
UK and Italy.... For some reason i personally would like their downfall. Maybe their closeness to Pakistanis count too .....
France, Germany and Dutch on the otherhand , i hope beef up their capacity and capabilities military wise in Europe.
France, Germany and Dutch on the otherhand , i hope beef up their capacity and capabilities military wise in Europe.
So because they didn't even make good thieves they get a pass from India. You actually have a lot in common with the British habbit of supporting the underdog.
You are forgetting Karikal, Yanaon and Chandernaga. The point is that all these crooks would have done the same if they got the chance. One way or another Europeans would have colonised India, the only question was which.
British Prime Minister Theresa May Faces New Pressure To Quit As Brexit Deadline Looms
By Samantha Raphelson
NPR.org, March 24, 2019 · Updated at 4:43 p.m. ET
British Prime Minister Theresa May is facing new challenges to her leadership the day after protesters packed the streets of London to demand a second referendum on Britain's exit from the European Union.
A number of British parliamentarians, including senior members of May's own Conservative Party, have wanted her out for some time, NPR's Frank Langfitt tells Weekend Edition Sunday. British newspapers on Sunday reported that senior members of May's cabinet could resign to force her resignation.
If that were to happen, May would be replaced by an interim prime minister. But two cabinet ministers who were named by British media as possible replacements touted their support for May on Sunday.
David Lidington, the prime minister's de facto deputy, who voted to remain in the EU, denied rumors of a plot to oust May, telling reporters that he was "100 percent behind" her. Michael Gove, the secretary of state for environment, food and rural affairs, who was also named in the papers as a possible caretaker prime minister, said that it was "not the time to change the captain of the ship."
Another option for Parliament would be to ask May to commit to a date to step down in exchange for an approval of her Brexit deal, though that seems unlikely given the unpopularity of her plan, which has been soundly defeated in two votes.
May has not responded to the reports, but No. 10 Downing St. insists that she is going nowhere. Fellow Conservatives and pro-Brexit lawmakers, including Boris Johnson, met with May at her country residence, Chequers, on Sunday.
The prime minister's office released a statement after the meeting, but provided no indication as to whether May had made any progress on gaining support for her plan. A Downing Street spokesperson did not address rumors about May's future.
"The PM and a number of government ministers met today at Chequers for lengthy talks with senior colleagues about delivering Brexit," the spokesperson said, according to Reuters. "The meeting discussed a wide range of issues, including whether there is sufficient support in the Commons to bring back a meaningful vote this week."
Despite the pressure she is facing to step down, May has survived two no-confidence votes in Parliament, the most recent being this January. She cannot face another leadership challenge from within her own party until December, according to party rules, but if several members of her cabinet resigned, she could be convinced to quit.
"Changing the players doesn't solve the problem," Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond told Sky News on Sunday morning. "The problem is that we as a nation have to decide how to deliver Brexit."
Still, May angered lawmakers last week when she delivered a speech blaming Parliament for the Brexit stalemate. And if Saturday's demonstrations are any indication, May is also losing support among voters. An Ipsos MORI poll released this past week shows that 86 percent of Britons are dissatisfied with her leadership.
Protesters told Langfitt that they want a second chance to vote on Brexit because they believe the vote in 2016 was flawed.
"This country's in grave danger of shooting itself in the foot," Tim Parsons, who works in finance in London, told Langfitt. "There was a vote. Nobody knew what they were voting for at the time, so I think it should be put back for another vote. At least it will have been an informed decision."
The chances of a second referendum are considered low because it would enrage the 52 percent of voters who supported Brexit. Even some who voted to remain in the European Union feel a second vote would be anti-democratic, Langfitt says.
The leadership drama comes as May is running out of time to get a new Brexit deal approved by Parliament. She has until the end of next week to secure an agreement, after winning an extension from EU leaders. Britain was originally scheduled to leave the EU on March 29.
May could present her Brexit plan for a third vote next week, but she has said she would do that only if she were certain it had enough support to win. If Parliament can agree on a plan next week, the United Kingdom will have until May 22 to leave the EU. But if Parliament can't get a deal done, it will have to devise a new plan or leave the EU with a no-deal Brexit on April 12, which most experts say would be a nightmare scenario.
By Samantha Raphelson
NPR.org, March 24, 2019 · Updated at 4:43 p.m. ET
British Prime Minister Theresa May is facing new challenges to her leadership the day after protesters packed the streets of London to demand a second referendum on Britain's exit from the European Union.
A number of British parliamentarians, including senior members of May's own Conservative Party, have wanted her out for some time, NPR's Frank Langfitt tells Weekend Edition Sunday. British newspapers on Sunday reported that senior members of May's cabinet could resign to force her resignation.
If that were to happen, May would be replaced by an interim prime minister. But two cabinet ministers who were named by British media as possible replacements touted their support for May on Sunday.
David Lidington, the prime minister's de facto deputy, who voted to remain in the EU, denied rumors of a plot to oust May, telling reporters that he was "100 percent behind" her. Michael Gove, the secretary of state for environment, food and rural affairs, who was also named in the papers as a possible caretaker prime minister, said that it was "not the time to change the captain of the ship."
Another option for Parliament would be to ask May to commit to a date to step down in exchange for an approval of her Brexit deal, though that seems unlikely given the unpopularity of her plan, which has been soundly defeated in two votes.
May has not responded to the reports, but No. 10 Downing St. insists that she is going nowhere. Fellow Conservatives and pro-Brexit lawmakers, including Boris Johnson, met with May at her country residence, Chequers, on Sunday.
The prime minister's office released a statement after the meeting, but provided no indication as to whether May had made any progress on gaining support for her plan. A Downing Street spokesperson did not address rumors about May's future.
"The PM and a number of government ministers met today at Chequers for lengthy talks with senior colleagues about delivering Brexit," the spokesperson said, according to Reuters. "The meeting discussed a wide range of issues, including whether there is sufficient support in the Commons to bring back a meaningful vote this week."
Despite the pressure she is facing to step down, May has survived two no-confidence votes in Parliament, the most recent being this January. She cannot face another leadership challenge from within her own party until December, according to party rules, but if several members of her cabinet resigned, she could be convinced to quit.
"Changing the players doesn't solve the problem," Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond told Sky News on Sunday morning. "The problem is that we as a nation have to decide how to deliver Brexit."
Still, May angered lawmakers last week when she delivered a speech blaming Parliament for the Brexit stalemate. And if Saturday's demonstrations are any indication, May is also losing support among voters. An Ipsos MORI poll released this past week shows that 86 percent of Britons are dissatisfied with her leadership.
Protesters told Langfitt that they want a second chance to vote on Brexit because they believe the vote in 2016 was flawed.
"This country's in grave danger of shooting itself in the foot," Tim Parsons, who works in finance in London, told Langfitt. "There was a vote. Nobody knew what they were voting for at the time, so I think it should be put back for another vote. At least it will have been an informed decision."
The chances of a second referendum are considered low because it would enrage the 52 percent of voters who supported Brexit. Even some who voted to remain in the European Union feel a second vote would be anti-democratic, Langfitt says.
The leadership drama comes as May is running out of time to get a new Brexit deal approved by Parliament. She has until the end of next week to secure an agreement, after winning an extension from EU leaders. Britain was originally scheduled to leave the EU on March 29.
May could present her Brexit plan for a third vote next week, but she has said she would do that only if she were certain it had enough support to win. If Parliament can agree on a plan next week, the United Kingdom will have until May 22 to leave the EU. But if Parliament can't get a deal done, it will have to devise a new plan or leave the EU with a no-deal Brexit on April 12, which most experts say would be a nightmare scenario.
The UK does not have the time to organize a new referendum, all these protesters who want a "people's vote" are deluded.
UK's choice is simple: either Parliament approves the withdrawal agreement within the next few days (less than five remaining), or it gets out with No Deal on April 12. Anything else is a fantasy.
UK's choice is simple: either Parliament approves the withdrawal agreement within the next few days (less than five remaining), or it gets out with No Deal on April 12. Anything else is a fantasy.
I'm beginning to think they'll revoke Article 50. The CBI lobby is too strong.
Unfortunately it will AFAIK. The only solution is for the EU to refuse any further extensions and see what happens, otherwise this crap will still be going on in 2030.
Let me expand a bit on why revoking Article 50 is not a solution. First, from the UK's side.
- It won't undo the political damage of invoking it in the first place. The UK has lost a lot of political capital with this, and canceling out at the last moment isn't going to bring it back. For example, the two European agencies that were hosted in London (European Banking Authority and European Medicines Agency) have been officially transferred and I doubt they will be moved back.
- The British eurosceptic public will logically see this as a betrayal. They will not change their mind or be mollified by the government saying at the last minute that all things considered it'd be too much of a hassle, let's just forget about it. The issue will stay, and the factors that led Cameron to organise the referendum will still be there, and even stronger.
- The UK has always been a proponent of having the European Community as a free-market area and nothing more. They've consistently opposed reforms trying to deepen integration or to create a real political and military power out of it. With an aborted Brexit, that will be even stronger now; nobody can imagine the UK trying to sell to its eurosceptic public that not only Brexit is canceled but that in addition the UK will agree with further integration. There would be riots.
- Since cancelling Brexit does nothing to address why it happened in the first place, the issue will hang like the sword of Damocles, everyone waiting for it to happen again but no one looking forward to it.
- Euroscepticism, in Britain and elsewhere in Europe, will actually increase as a result. Both from those who are opposed to the entire idea of European Union, but also from those who actually like the idea but think it is poorly implemented.
1. We never had any political capital in the EU, it was always a Franco-German dominated institute.
2. It will be a betrayal.
1. We would likely veto further integration.
2. Well Macron said the EU must reform. What reforms have there been since?
3. Good.
2. It will be a betrayal.
1. We would likely veto further integration.
2. Well Macron said the EU must reform. What reforms have there been since?
3. Good.
Do you think the UK will adopt its own Article 13 after it leaves the EU? Not having such draconian online censorship laws will definitely give Brexit UK an upper leg in the digital economy (unless the rest of the world follows suit....)