MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions

[Subgradewalker]

And all the defence fanbois on X would support his cancer takes. Because I don't expect anything logical coming from his mouth. Like nobody is every going to give you source code. Even Russian didn't gave us one.

"Rahul" fanbois. Any 'defense' fanboy would be last to support him and his narrative.

As for source code.. how many of us even know what source code actually is? Its importance to a nation. Many just think it's like a magical key and not a proprietary code containing millions and millions of lines of code.

36 billion? Its not even a drop in the bucket when it comes to the value of code. You are basically asking them for their Aircraft industry at this rate.

What we need is enough access to make it a part of our ecosystem. And that's a no brainer. For that we need to wait for some details to come out.

All the hoopla about 2008 timline is just that. There was no deal then. Period. Past is gone. And no new govt would've inked such a big deal in 2 years of its power, i.e. 2016. Sentiment doesn't always meet hard reality.

I still maintain my position that foreign imports should be zero. Wether rafale or Su-57. But that's only on the condition that the money is directed towards sovereign projects.

For that our defense ecosystem needs to reform itself. But these same morons would criticise GOI and become roadblock when it tries to cut HALs Monopoly. When it tries to give DRDO more freedom by decentralising fund access to lab heads. Without such mechanisms, no amount of money would fast-track out indigineous programs.

Its a vicious cycle of education, educators, scientists, infrastructure etc. Takes time. Especially when DPSUs become job vacancies only.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Does anyone know the details of deal that was on the table in 2000s and early 2010s? The extent of access IAF was getting? The system architecture?

Only then would it be a prudent to compare the deals.

 

[Speedster1]

While we compare the Rafale deal vs MKI, I cannot recall 1 instance from the past where France would've allowed the integration of third-party radars (or avionics/comms/ew for that matter) on their platforms. They did build customized variants (like the M2000-9 for the UAE) but using only French gear.

Even the finicky Americans have selectively allowed foriegn operators to customize jets like the F-16 (Israel, Turkey, etc.). Japan was even allowed to build a scaled-up, fully localized Viper variant from scratch in the Mitsubishi F-2.

Afaik, the gutsy Israelis were the only country that pulled off an indigenous (but unlicensed) upgrade of the Mirage-5 into the Kfir C2, equipping it with an American engine, reprofiled nose, wings, new avionics, etc. They later even sold it to South Africa and the Sri Lankans. Recall the fuss the French created when the IAF modified its M2000s to carry Israeli LGBs + Litening LDP during Kargil.

Could $36 billion + lifetime maintenance/upgrade fees persuade the French to change their policy? Guess only time will tell.

 

[Rune]

Does anyone know the details of deal that was on the table in 2000s and early 2010s? The extent of access IAF was getting? The system architecture?

Only then would it be a prudent to compare the deals.

There was no deal back then period. All three stakeholders (IAF, HAL, Dassault) were at odds with each other. How can we compare this deal to something that never existed. This one is much better since Dassault controls the production part and all the OEM guarantees that will come with it.

 

[marich01]

Good chunk of issue is due to stakeholders on our side wanting Russia like deals from EU counterpart fully knowing they are not accustomed with such arrangement and IPR issues even within their zone let alone outside, and in the process GoI or HAL completely disregard the time factor. If a deal even materialises in 2050 or later, they will go ahead with that instead of newer tech based product.

The bottom line is for those with concern about how the older gen jet would fare against chinese counterparts, be sure the Govt , political leadership of the country will not let that happen at a grand scale, they will press nuke trigger way ahead of that. Few jets attrition in a short conflict is nothing to them or IAF or anybody else. It should not bother anyone tbh. But the sort of josh with which a good chunk of defence community want Indian jets to counter chinese or other jets in aerial battles, how longer astra can go vis a vis chinese or pak missiles, that is very glass house fighting sort of.

 

[Bon Plan]

If this is true then Rafales we are having right now are totally ... standalone. Not integrated in Indian defence network. No wonder they could not perform as well in May. No AWACS was present because... they were operating solo, not as a net centric warfare.

Rafale were not alone during Sindoor. What about Su30 and Mirage 2000, in the indian inventory for so many years ?

 

[Bon Plan]

Recall the fuss the French created when the IAF modified its M2000s to carry Israeli LGBs + Litening LDP during Kargil.

False !
The M2000 was modified ONLY with the agreement of the french top brass and then Dassault. Impossible if not in a so short ime.
So no.

 

[_Anonymous_]

The bottom line is for those with concern about how the older gen jet would fare against chinese counterparts, be sure the Govt , political leadership of the country will not let that happen at a grand scale, they will press nuke trigger way ahead of that.

And what happens after GoI presses the nuke button ? The Chinese will sit on their haunches & absorb their losses ?

Deterrence is mostly a mind game. If the Chinese were so deterred by us you wouldn't have seen a Galwan in the first place.

 

[Speedster1]

False !
The M2000 was modified ONLY with the agreement of the french top brass and then Dassault. Impossible if not in a so short ime.
So no.

Got a bit carried away there. But the fact is that Isreal later outbid DA with a much cheaper M2000 upgrade package for the IAF.

The French weren't too happy about it and MoD eventually ended up paying DA an astronomical amount for an upgrade w/o engine replacement.

Only time I can recall when the Indian MoD ignored its L1 policy when awarding a contract.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

And what happens after GoI presses the nuke button ? The Chinese will sit on their haunches & absorb their losses ?

Deterrence is mostly a mind game. If the Chinese were so deterred by us you wouldn't have seen a Galwan in the first place.

Galwan Casualties of the Chinese , themselves created a deterrence for the Next 4 years till 2024 agreement

They didn't fire a Single Artillery shell in all those 4 years

 

[marich01]

And what happens after GoI presses the nuke button ? The Chinese will sit on their haunches & absorb their losses ?

Deterrence is mostly a mind game. If the Chinese were so deterred by us you wouldn't have seen a Galwan in the first place.

Its a verbal threat, and effective against the sizeable opponent , basically china & usa , that should the adversary choose the escalatory move next, it will be facing this because our doctrine allow us to interpret any attack that way. This works usually & will work. No other country we have near our borders that would pose significant threat otherwise.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Galwan Casualties of the Chinese , themselves created a deterrence for the Next 4 years till 2024 agreement

They didn't fire a Single Artillery shell in all those 4 years

I don't think you understand the concept of deterrence. Had the Chinese been deterred they wouldn't have initiated what they did.

And to think they're deterred today is a fallacy , something you share with South Block who seem to think the Chinese either won't prosecute their claims & if they do it'd be confined to the LAC & what's more we can handle them with what we have.

Anyway don't mean to detail the thread. If you wish to reply please quote me in the appropriate thread.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Its a verbal threat, and effective against the sizeable opponent , basically china & usa , that should the adversary choose the escalatory move next, it will be facing this because our doctrine allow us to interpret any attack that way. This works usually & will work. No other country we have near our borders that would pose significant threat otherwise.

I really can't believe somebody of your calibre typed this. Believe me I checked multiple times if I was actually engaging you in conversation or Hydrocele.

 

[Hydra]

Galwan Casualties of the Chinese , themselves created a deterrence for the Next 4 years till 2024 agreement

They didn't fire a Single Artillery shell in all those 4 years

Galwan created deterence? seriously? They didn't fire a single bullet in last few decades.

 

[Speedster1]

The bottom line is for those with concern about how the older gen jet would fare against chinese counterparts, be sure the Govt , political leadership of the country will not let that happen at a grand scale, they will press nuke trigger way ahead of that

Unlike our 2 neighbors, India has a NFU policy without any strategic ambiguity. Unless our N doctrine changes, we will never be the 1st to escalate.

Our policy makers were bold in embracing an NFU posture as early as 2001. Our N triad became fully operational only in 2018 when Arihant conducted her first deterrent patrol.

Few jets attrition in a short conflict is nothing to them or IAF or anybody else. It should not bother anyone tbh. But the sort of josh with which a good chunk of defence community want Indian jets to counter chinese or other jets in aerial battles, how longer astra can go vis a vis chinese or pak missiles, that is very glass house fighting sort of.

Nukes do not alter the balance of power wrt another N weapons state (or even otherwise.) They can only provide parity, better known as MAD.

Our AF is down to a mere 29 sqns against arguably the 3rd largest AF in the world. Every jet lost hurts us much more than it does China.

The fact remains that the IAFs qualitative edge has eroded vs both China and Pak. So, it is a neccessity for us to get into reactive mode and plan for various scenarios we might face off against the PLA.

 

[Ashwin]

Good summary

 

[Bon Plan]

Got a bit carried away there. But the fact is that Isreal later outbid DA with a much cheaper M2000 upgrade package for the IAF.

The French weren't too happy about it and MoD eventually ended up paying DA an astronomical amount for an upgrade w/o engine replacement.

Only time I can recall when the Indian MoD ignored its L1 policy when awarding a contract.

OK. It's correct about Kargil urgent upgrade.

About the engine : unfortunately we had not other engine than M53P2 for M2000, the engine already fitted on M2000.
There was a plan.... for M53PX engine, supposed to deliver something in the 11 tons thrust, but as the jet reach the end of its commercial life it was abandoned beause too few potential customers. Another plan was the M88-4, of 10.5 tons, but same fate.

 

[Saaho]

Good summary

No one explains why the hell From 2000 it took 2007 for just ... RFP? What the *censored* were we doing in between?

 

[Ashwin]

No one explains why the hell From 2000 it took 2007 for just ... RFP? What the *censored* were we doing in between?

You dont really need explanation unless you are very new to indian defence procurement.

• Indian defense procurement is notoriously slow because its bureaucratically driven, and prone to corruption.
• Political apathy
• Lack of funds, we committed to a large number of Su-30 MKI aircraft at the same time.

You could ask why we didn't go with the same direct procurement 2-3 years ago. Why now? Answers will be similar.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Do corruption. Then make rules to deter corruption. Find loopholes. Make more rules, more signature , more files to close loopholes. More loopholes found. More regulations.

But people change. Single person doesn't know every single rule, regulation and legality of things. So, keep repeating the process. Push file, send files back, push again untill the process finds all signature. Then comes the politician who will decide the future of the file depending upon his current political scenario, geo-politics etc. pray that sufficient conditions are met. Otherwise Rinse and Repeat.


Doesnt seem much? That's just one file. Multiply it by 100s of files that are in circulation at any given period of time. Constraint your manpower due to staff shortage. Now shift the lens from system to people. The person is human, not a machine. Cognitive fatigue happens. Clarification, Re-checking, Ensuring zero culpability in any unforseen scandal, lopsided incentives between Time taken and Results. Welcome to a system that prefers process over product. If it's still not enough than add some real corrupt and pathetic people in the mix who are on their way to find more loopholes.

I have no love for babus, but they too are human beings at the end. With time, the system just breeds apathy. shocks like Galwan and Pahalgam just brings the system out from their stupor for short term. It seems like things are finally happening, some things do, but the system ensures that it goes back to its "natural" state without Shocks.