Arihant-class SSBN - News & Discussions
- Thread starter Nick
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Do you think SSBNs will be safe by the time India can operationalise 12 SSBNs simultaneously?
Yes.
Unlike ssn's Their job is not to get close to enemy fleet or subs in order to hunt them.
Their job is to remain hidden submerged somewhere in the vast ocean, close enough so that their SLBM can reach enemy mainland( which would mean thousands of km away from enemy coast ).
Subs are also improving, with passive acoustic stealth reaching pinnacle with latest current subs, now future subs are going for angular shape for better active acoustic stealth too.
I can confidently say, even in 2050s ssbn's will remain the most potent and safe aspect of a nuclear triad.
In future, inside the vast ocean, somewhere submerged within its depth will lay ahead an angular non magnetic tube, with capabilities of completely * mimicing * the acoustic signature of its surrounding ocean enviornment, storing humans and nuke armed missiles inside of it.
Also Bastian concept, for example russia(&china) is creating a safe area of ocean for its ssbn's where russian naval and air assets can reach and maintain dense presence to create a safe heaven/sanctuary for its ssbn's to lurk below the waves.
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It makes sense with current scenarios.
But let's say on average with increase in construction capacity.. it takes 5 years per sub from starting of construction to getting commissioned. Considering industrial scale is expanded aggressively. That's 8 subs remaining x 5 years = 40 years. That's 2065 with decent development pace given indias history. So, 2050s will be done and dusted by then bro.
The world of 2060 will not be same as we know it now. I would urge you to go look up the new tech being invested in and under development. Also at the plans of major nations for deep sea exploration beyond EEZ. Even the arctic is starting to be increasingly on Europes agenda. And with need comes innovation. I won't be surprised if 5000++KM SLBMs become the minimum requirement for a credible deterrence by then.
UUVs, sea bots, drones will be moving in deep oceans. With increase in stealth tech, anti stealth tech will also advance. SSBNs might not even be the same as we know it. And that's not considering the C4ISR advancement, space based deterrence, And an integrated networked armada of Subs+ UUVs out on hunt.
And then there's Air defense. If India, China, US.. everyone is already developing shields covering their whole nation.
That was my thought process when I asked if SSBNs would even have same weight by the time India can realistically have 12 SSBNs. Let alone 30-40 SSNs.
We should focus on enough assets to deter and hurt if times call for it. Not for attrition. Rather than 12 SSBNs, 30-40 SSNs, it would be more prudent to build few SSNs to get experience like we got with arihant. And than advance the SSNs itself by making them competent enough so, one underwater armada can outdo 12 old SSNs.
Note: We are in hypothetical and assumption based territory here. Don't turn it into a argument fest.
We can discuss ofcourse if anyone wanna talk about future developments.. but don't be hostile yo.
That's not how it works.
Another sub doesn't start construction after 1st is fully completed.
In simple language
Its block by block, parts are made outside of dry Dock and are assembled in dry Dock.
You can start construction on same part for 2nd sub after the part of first sub is completed, even if first submarine isn't fully completed.
That's around a 10-15 years for 8 subs, if it takes 5 years for one sub to be completed, and a single dry Dock is used.
( though process can be faster if more than one dry Dock is present).
Current plans are for ~6 s5 class subs by ~2040.
First one expected to by ready by mid 2030s.
Slbm's with 8k-12k range are already standard in most ssbn's.
We are building 8k(full payload mode)-12k km one as k6 for our future ssbn's.
I am fully aware of all those, i said those words while being fully aware of these plans, and i still stand by it.
Ssbn's will remain the most survivable leg of nuclear traid.
Also as said before, Bastian concept.
Put long range slbm on ssbn's, and keep ssbn's near your coast so that your assets can dominate the region around yout sub, your aircraft, your subs, your ships, your uuv's, your sensor network to detect if any non,friendly asset entered that region by air, surface, underwater etc.
A safe heaven for your ssbn to lurk beneath the wave.
This will prevent enemy from taking out your sub even if they can detect it lurking by some near future sensing tech like gravity-gradiometry, underwater wake detection etc.
* I understand what you're saying. The seas provide the best available natural safe heaven for such assets hence SSBNs. But my point is not about SSBNs being obsolete. But not as safe as now, especially with the current standard of SSBNs that we know of. And I am coming across the deep sea exploration initiatives and mention in discourse more frequently than anytime in past, which makes me think that in future oceans won't be as lonely or dark as now.
That's why I took average of 5 years. Otherwise it took 12-15 years for each of our 4 subs currently in various stages of operations.
For the 6 S5, given timeline of 2 S5 to be inducted in early 2030s, adding usual delays and focus on maximum indigenous content possible.. how realistic do you think it is for 6 S5 to be operational by 2040. Let alone 12.
Our whole discussion hinges on the hypothetical scenario of 12 SSBNs bro. Our engineers, scientist already have too much at their plate due to lack of brainpower( no of scientists) at DRDO.
The stealth tech you mentioned are in active R&D but not in India. We don't lead it. We are improving gradually. Only a miraculous change in our domestic innovation capacity can take us on par. Plus, you will need advanced missiles like K-6+ to evade our adversary's air defense too, which will include space based assets and maybe even interceptors at launch and booster phase combined with autonomous explorers and hunters. Maybe more submerged, at forget distances , needing more powerfull propulsion etc. doable but then SSBN might not be just SSBNs anymore.
What I mean to say is that SSBN won't remain same as they are today if they want to survive. They will likely have to not only adopt stealth but also counter ASW systems and networked UUVs as a mini bastion of sort.
I did not say SSBNs will be obsolete. But they won't be as safe as now. They will be a potent deterrence, just as AGNI V is. But not the safety attributed to them today. But ofcourse, if Indian SSBNs and SLBMs are able to match the highest standard of that time with even 3-4 assets.. it will be remarkable. Maybe 12 won't even be needed by then if our tech becomes on par.
Ofcourse this is hypothetical with certain assumptions that current development pace remains steady at the least. Any major disruption in science may alter the dynamics further.
On the contrary, UUVs armed with weapons will be needed in much much larger numbers to really deter the enemy to start something. Conventional deterrence below nuclear threshold.
That's why I took average of 5 years. Otherwise it took 12-15 years for each of our 4 subs currently in various stages of operations.
For the 6 S5, given timeline of 2 S5 to be inducted in early 2030s, adding usual delays and focus on maximum indigenous content possible.. how realistic do you think it is for 6 S5 to be operational by 2040. Let alone 12.
Our whole discussion hinges on the hypothetical scenario of 12 SSBNs bro. Our engineers, scientist already have too much at their plate due to lack of brainpower( no of scientists) at DRDO.
The stealth tech you mentioned are in active R&D but not in India. We don't lead it. We are improving gradually. Only a miraculous change in our domestic innovation capacity can take us on par. Plus, you will need advanced missiles like K-6+ to evade our adversary's air defense too, which will include space based assets and maybe even interceptors at launch and booster phase combined with autonomous explorers and hunters. Maybe more submerged, at forget distances , needing more powerfull propulsion etc. doable but then SSBN might not be just SSBNs anymore.
What I mean to say is that SSBN won't remain same as they are today if they want to survive. They will likely have to not only adopt stealth but also counter ASW systems and networked UUVs as a mini bastion of sort.
I did not say SSBNs will be obsolete. But they won't be as safe as now. They will be a potent deterrence, just as AGNI V is. But not the safety attributed to them today. But ofcourse, if Indian SSBNs and SLBMs are able to match the highest standard of that time with even 3-4 assets.. it will be remarkable. Maybe 12 won't even be needed by then if our tech becomes on par.
Ofcourse this is hypothetical with certain assumptions that current development pace remains steady at the least. Any major disruption in science may alter the dynamics further.
On the contrary, UUVs armed with weapons will be needed in much much larger numbers to really deter the enemy to start something. Conventional deterrence below nuclear threshold.
That's not a standard construction time.
Of a planned class of ssbn's.
We are developing our subs.
That time it took was also a time of experiment and testing
Quite realistic.
We are progressing in lead times.
For example Arihant was commissioned in 2016.
Arighaat was commissioned in 2024( 8 years difference between subsequent subs).
But Aridhaman already entered sea trails, which means will be commissioned next year of at most 2 years later( 2-3 difference between subsequent subs expected).
And s4* is launched, already on fitting out phase, sp we can expect 2 years of difference in commissioning between aridhaman and s4*.
We can expect faster deliveries between subsequent s5 class in 2030s, as we are improving in construction and our economy is growing at 7-8% year on year.
Indeed we are improving gradually.
We don't have to worry about falling behind in icbm tech.
My guy, capacity increases with time and growth.
They will expand the pool.
But that 12ssbn is in 2040s(2040-2050)
Till 2040 current plan are of 6 ssbn
( maybe more ssbn's ordered in 2030s to be commissioned in 2040-2050
Hope so. I would be glad to be proven wrong about my expectations of delay in S5. Would be wonderfull for our shipyards to get major upgrades. More than planned too.
But I doubt about talent pool at DRDO. Not because of them but the whole recruitment system of anything related to govt. Maybe DcPP will evolve into R&D partner, bypassing stupid process.
Some rather weird bookmarks are kept by me. This is some Brazilian study of Arihant building process, in Portuguese
www.scribd.com
and a submarine related old monograph + some LT presentation in last decade on sustaining sub making
Submarino Nuclear Arihant da Índia | PDF | Constituição | Estado
A monografia analisa o programa do INS Arihant, o primeiro submarino nuclear da Índia, com o objetivo de fornecer subsídios ao Ministério da Defesa brasileiro para a construção de seu próprio submarino nuclear. O estudo utiliza revisão de literatura e pesquisa de dados, abordando aspectos...
and a submarine related old monograph + some LT presentation in last decade on sustaining sub making
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Aren't at least one SSBNs on active mission at a given time? Am I missing something here
Na, we don't do Continuous At-Sea Deterrence (CASD)
don't have enough boomers yet for that.
We bring the boomers out only when it's a DEFCON 3 level or higher situation (like in May 2025).
Current Minimum standard is 4 ssbn,
Set by France and uk both having 4 ssbn and maintaining CASD.
though also depends on capabilities of the ssbn itself and maintance capabilities of the dockyard.
Our goal should be 8 ssbn by 2040.
S4, S4*, six S5 class.
S2 and s3 retired by then or converted into mini ssgn.
Yeah! Realised S4 and S4* are still at trials only.
After commissioning of S4 ( expected this year or next) , will IN test CADS? To have a better understanding for SOPs and logistics etc for eventual full 24/7 x 365 deterrence
Can expect CASD test run in late 2020s, partial CASD after that I guess.
Though i don't think we will have full CASD capabilities before mid2030s when s5 starts delivering.
