I am talking about zip tying and castrating the feral hog. Not let it build up strength.
Defanged and split up. The remaining force trying to maintain order and consequently its corner plots.
Nope and Nope
What I am talking about is an Iraq like collapse after the head loses contact with the tail, you dont fight major units, instead you buy out key commanders, stubborn units get isolated and either break / collapse or get wiped out after GHQ Pindi gets rezoned as a parking lot at Zero Hour.
A broken command structure where we achieve strategic paralysis if not operational for 72 hours will achieve the collapse I am talking about.
Let 1/2 province secede, set a fire in PoK - people demand exiting Pak, Balochis running their own train.
Turn your existing boots on ground into peacekeepers while Delhi puts together a peace formula.
If you try the full war route you will end with a Ukraine like situation with Arabs, Unkil and others propping Pak up while we grind away.
Knock out Pak before the Chinese can move or BD can finish the fish curry lunch.
You're referring to the immediate future post collapse of the Paxtani State.
I'm referring to the medium to long term future there. Those various factions of Fauji Foundation left & their commanders will have a fiefdom to look after . To what extent are you going to subsidise them & for how long ?
Look at the long term scenario for Paxtan . Their population today is 250 million poised to reach 300 million in a decade if not earlier.
The water scarcity is so acute it makes the list of the top 5 water stressed nations in the world. And that's in the present . What happens tomorrow when we divert waters from the Indus River Systems to our states since India especially North India is pretty water stressed too ?
Then there're the various tanzeems & the radicalization to consider. Add illiteracy , poor health & sanitation. Economically their industries are shutting down , agriculture even otherwise is unviable , with water scarcity it's going to be even more so .
Where do you think this mass of people will go to ? This isn't the 2010s anymore where people from sub Saharan Africa , Iraq , Libya , Syria etc ended up welcomed in the EU .
You're looking at masses of young men highly radicalized , well armed ( with small arms mfg becoming a cottage industry there not that it isn't ) running narco jehadi terrorist fiefdoms.
Paxtan eventually becomes an amorphous state with no central authority resembling the NW frontiers at the beginning of last millenium from where they lauch daily raids into what was then Paxtan & what is now NW India.
Our entire IB from J&K down to the Rann of Kutch will be highly militarised & clashes across the border will be daily affairs spilling onto our territory frequently or waged on their lands.
This will be a replay of the old classic pastoral nomadic vs sedentary population dynamic. Most of our energy & focus will go towards meeting this threat.
In the meanwhile BD explodes & the after effects are felt in our NE where pretty soon the Bengali Muslims in Assam who're galloping towards the 50% + population mark & having achieved it will look to surpass it soon achieving 60% .
The native Assamese won't sit quiet for obvious reasons & voila ! We've the makings of a major insurgency there with the Bengali Muslims finding sanctuary & support across the border.
Before you realise it the same situation is replicated in WB & since these vermin have spread across towns & cities in India you can expect problems to crop up everywhere.
Problems would be an extremely polite way to describe the situation & as this issue progresses it gets inter woven with traditional Hindu Muslim animosities & you're looking at a full blown civil war .
Into this now try to visualise how & where those narco jihadi tanzeems from Paxtan fit in !
What I'm describing isn't some cheap plot from a pulp fiction novel but a very realistic scenario set to unfold anywhere between 2-3 decades from now likely earlier.
It's something I've thought about long & hard. I can't seem to come up with any plausible scenario which isn't dire to our existence .
Oh yes for the purpose of a realistic scenario I've considered the Sino US war over Taiwan to have resulted in a Pyrrhic victory for the US with China split into 3-4 nations , the Gulf states lose their importance as oil as a commodity now longer rules the roost , EU is economically devasted after resuming the war in Ukraine against Russia defeating it but only barely & now have to face down Islamic hordes they've imported with a belligerent native population baying for their blood given the economic downturn , loss of confidence in the state as the social contract between the state & the citizens has long ceased to be functional or even trustworthy.
In other words the rest of the world have their own fish to fry which leaves us open to do pretty much what we want to . However the odds we face are daunting.
Check if you can wargame this differently.
