Just a few numbers here.
minfin.gov.ru
This is Russia's preliminary assessment of its finances for the January-November 2023 period. Contrary to popular expectations, Russia's deficit (as a percentage of GDP) is projected as only
0.5%.
There's been a significant decline in Russia's oil and gas revenues, but it has accompanied by a rather significant increase in non-oil revenues. The figures are as following:
Translation:
Non-oil and gas revenues of the federal budget amounted to RUB 17,737 bln and increased by 25.6% YoY. The dynamics of receipt of the largest non-oil and gas revenues of the federal budget (turnover taxes, profit tax) remains in a consistently positive area - including by the level of 2021 (as less subject to statistical base effects).
Translation:
Oil and gas revenues amounted to RUB 8,226 bln and decreased by 22.8% YoY due to the high base of last year's comparison, lower Urals price quotations at the beginning of the year, lower prices, and reduced natural gas export volumes.
Also given is this:
Translation:
Taking into account these operations, the level of oil and gas revenues in November 2023 would exceed the previous year's level by 11%.
From Jan-Nov 2023, Russia's total expenditure is
26,841 billion roubles against a total revenue of
25,963 billion roubles; this put Russia's deficit at
878 billion roubles (or 0.5% of its GDP).
For those interested in a more detailed, month-wise breakdown of Russia's revenues and expenditures, refer below (note: the figures given are cumulative, m-o-m):
minfin.gov.ru
Revenue figures for December will be known next year (as would be obvious). But just for a comparison, the oil revenue for Oct 2022 was
866.4 billion roubles; for Oct 2023 it was
1,016.1 billion roubles. So, while the cumulative numbers are down sharply, the monthly figures for Oct are up. Whether it translates into a trend will be seen once figures for December and January come in next year.
The division of expenditures under different heads has not been updated since January 2022 (the month-wise total expenditure figure however has been updated).
Thus, speaking strictly in fiscal terms, Russia's finance books have not been crippled yet (per the official data linked above).