MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions
- Thread starter Picdelamirand-oil
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ORCA is simply a statistical impossibility. It will not be ready when it's needed.
In any case delaying MRFA will only serve to weaken the IAF. ORCA won't provide any capability upgrade either.
TEDBF will eventually cross 100 jets. Two carriers need 40+ each in two air wings. And at least one coastal squadron in A&N. There's economies of scale too, because TEDBF will use LCA and AMCA tech. In fact only the airframe is the problem, the engine and avionics will be shared. And the airframe can also share raw materials and perhaps many components too.
The jet is suitable for exports.
U most likely to know our country & it's happening s.
Just because we screw up the spark doesn't mean we should give up.
U never know that little spark may be the one to save us one day.
Su30MKI will start going out from 2042 beyond. It's still 4-5 years before a solution for their replacement be get into works.
Mk2 induction starting then will replace the outgoing Mig29, Mirage 2000 and Darin III. Just maintaing the 29(+/-1) squadrons number.
That is not true actually. Dassault has capability to make 33 Rafales a year. The deliveries of UAE are to start in 2026-27.
So a small order of like 36 aircrafts will not even need Dassault to increase the rate of production to their full capacity.
I doubt GoI will allow a new program until TEDBF and AMCA Mk1 achieve IOC.
In any case, with digital engineering, like the thing ISRO does, the paper to flight duration can be made much shorter.
MRFA is not restarting, they are drafting the RFP. It appears OEMs prefer the Buy and Make process instead of SPM. SPM is a lot more stringent and lengthy.
What can derail the process again is if HAL is made the lead integrator instead of allowing all the OEMs to partner up with companies of their choice. If it's the latter, then the process will run smoothly. Boeing will choose HAL and Dassault will choose Reliance.
What can derail the process again is if HAL is made the lead integrator instead of allowing all the OEMs to partner up with companies of their choice. If it's the latter, then the process will run smoothly. Boeing will choose HAL and Dassault will choose Reliance.
So timeline:
RFP drafting: 2022
RFP issuing: 2024
RFP evaluation completing: 2027
L1 negotiations starting: 2029
L1 negotiations completing: 2036
First aircraft deliveries: 2040
That's if HAL and other lobbies do not throw spanners in the works.
The RFP will be issued as soon as it's drafted and approved. So we are talking June/July 2022.
And if we go by MMRCA dates, the process took 4.5 years from RFP to L1. With a June/July release, the same should take us to the end of 2026. Of course, MMRCA was delayed due to the slow pace of technical evaluations. 2.5+ years to shortlist, mid-2008 to early 2011 plus Saab delayed the process by 6 months on their own, which won't be the case this time. The new process is expected to be much faster, so we could say 3 to 3.5 years at best. The L1 decision to be made by 2025-26.
So it's the post L1 negotiations that could kill the program. Generally it should be done within 6 months. If DRAL leads the program for Rafale, then it can be done even before that. If HAL, then you know the drill. For now, we can assume DRAL will lead Rafale.
My estimate is 6 months for RFP, 6 months for paper evals, 2 months for flight evals, 6 months for shortlist and 6 months for price discovery. Add an additional 6 months for delays. So 32 months. If things go well, we could sign the contract well within 3 years.
The bigger issue was financing it, and that's been solved.
Procurement model to be similar to that of C295W. Strategic Partnership abandoned.
25 billion USD will be the cost.
A 100 million dollar jet made elsewhere, if assembled in India will easily cost 150 million USD.
It depends on what is the procedure we want. What is the level of localisation we want. Import duty on kits and GST on assembled aircrafts won't be pardoned. Remember this.
A 100 million dollar jet made elsewhere, if assembled in India will easily cost 150 million USD.
40 million USD Su30MKI if assembled in Irkut and then refitted in a Base Repair Depot at IAF will cost more than 100 million per piece. Just wait for the numbers of 12 Su30MKI deal.