Chinese Wuhan Virus Thread

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Are you prepared to walk the talk along with your near & dear ones & be part of that 10-20 crores whom you say won't make it?

YES , if it is my Fate , I will accept it

I didnt mean to say that 20 crore will die
But even if all 135 crore are affected
India will survive

We need to control the Spread of the outbreak so that All people do not fall ill together


So far in last two months 20 lakh people have died normally as compared to 4000 corona related deaths
Corona related Accidents and Starvation

But the people who are adversely affected at present and who will be affected in the coming months is around 70 crores

Economic problems like increase in debt and poverty will remain for a long time and kill
Many millions through stress and hypertension

 

[_Anonymous_]

YES , if it is my Fate , I will accept it

I didnt mean to say that 20 crore will die
But even if all 135 crore are affected
India will survive

We need to control the Spread of the outbreak


So far in last two months 20 lakh people have died normally as compared to 4000 corona deaths

But the people who are adversely affected at present and who will be affected in the coming months is around 70 crores

Economic problems like increase in debt will remain for a long time and kill
Many millions through stress and hypertension

If it's destined, you will get it. Whether you accept it or not is another matter. One of the reasons, the lock down was implemented is acknowledgement of the fact that our health care services is in the doldrums.

If we consider 135 crores of our population who're supposed to be infected as part of herd immunity, were we not to implement the lock down, more than 80% would be asymptomatic. The balance 10% would require care, with a few days in the ICU, oxygen, medications, etc.

It's the last 10% across age groups but mostly in the 60+ category with co Morbidities who'd be severely affected involving hospitalization in an ICU, on the ventilator, etc with few survivors. Now 10% of 135 crores is 13.5 crores.

But given the state of our healthcare services the previous 10% who'd require nominal hospitalization with intensive care for a few days without being on a ventilator could well fall in the last category of 10% of the severely affected given the dismal state of our health care industry.

Hence, that means 20% of out population is at risk which translates to 27 -30 crores nearly 90% of which would result in casualties . That's about the population of the US .

Add the cost of caring for them to the economy, the pandemonium which'd ensue in caring for them & disposal of their corpses & the public outcry which follows. Which government could or would risk it?

I'm not even referring to the cases of malnutrition & undernourished ppl across age, sex & regions spread over India who'd perish adding to the list of casualties. In the event, given the poor implementation of the lock down in Maharashtra, particularly in Mumbai, to be blamed both on the ppl & state govt, particularly the latter for failing to exhibit leadership and take tough decisions & we'd get a glimpse of what not implementing a lock down would mean.

This was always going to boil down to a trade off between the economy & casualty rate or rather an acceptable casualty rate.

 

[Sathya]

Lockdown so far is a success for me..

How?

It slowed down transmission so the health sector had to time to prepare.

In USA, a Indian doctor was awarded Unsung hero because she treated patients smartly and all that she was given is Single N 95 mask.

Imagine the same kind of situation in India.. It ll be massacre.

Now mask s and PPE kits are available to the hospitals to treat..

Industry are ready to churn out for the demands..

Hospitals have been modified to accommodate covid pts.

Health personnel are trained to handle cases...

People are made aware of do s and don't s..

We are not blind at night..

We can do reasonably well compared to what if we haven't locked down.

Anyways we cannot continue lock down after teaching everyone what must be done.

Time to go through the war smartly.
Advance and retreat wherever needed.

@Falcon

 

[Gust of Wind]

Can't say what the macro situation across the state is but looking at the rates of infection in TN it seems bad across the board? I wonder why. For except TN all the other southern states seem to be doing much better

For TN,lockdown came very late.

Especially for the northern districts. Due to the proximity to bigger metros (Chennai n bangaluru) daily traffic was high between these areas.

The moment government announced lockdown,people from Chennai flocked to cmbt bus terminal like a rock concert to get to their native places and this situation lasted for more than a week.

Coronavirus scare in Tamil Nadu: Crowd before the curfew - Times of India

The Koymabedu bus terminus was a nightmare on Monday. No one cared about social distancing, as thousands crowded the terminus pushing and shoving to board the few buses that were plying in their bid to leave the city before the lockdown from 6 pm on Tuesday.

m.timesofindia.com

Even today,I saw a family of 4(parents with 2 kids) arrived in our area.
Smuggled themselves out by a vegetable truck.

Lock down is a big joke.



Plus,tabligi meet didn't help the situation either.

At one point,90% of the positive cases were reported from the tabligi attendees alone.

 

[Sathya]

For TN,lockdown came very late.

Especially for the northern districts. Due to the proximity to bigger metros (Chennai n bangaluru) daily traffic was high between these areas.

The moment government announced lockdown,people from Chennai flocked to cmbt bus terminal like a rock concert to get to their native places and this situation lasted for more than a week.

Coronavirus scare in Tamil Nadu: Crowd before the curfew - Times of India

The Koymabedu bus terminus was a nightmare on Monday. No one cared about social distancing, as thousands crowded the terminus pushing and shoving to board the few buses that were plying in their bid to leave the city before the lockdown from 6 pm on Tuesday.

m.timesofindia.com

Plus,tabligi meet didn't help the situation either.

At one point,90% of the positive cases were reported from the tabligi attendees alone.

Now tabligi gone, koyambedu source and contacts have struck..
Hope we control it soon, &
No new hidden case source reveals later ..

I don't think we can survive another strike..
Community transmission is around the corner..

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

If it's destined, you will get it. Whether you accept it or not is another matter. One of the reasons, the lock down was implemented is acknowledgement of the fact that our health care services is in the doldrums.

If we consider 135 crores of our population who're supposed to be infected as part of herd immunity, were we not to implement the lock down, more than 80% would be asymptomatic. The balance 10% would require care, with a few days in the ICU, oxygen, medications, etc.

It's the last 10% across age groups but mostly in the 60+ category with co Morbidities who'd be severely affected involving hospitalization in an ICU, on the ventilator, etc with few survivors. Now 10% of 135 crores is 13.5 crores.

But given the state of our healthcare services the previous 10% who'd require nominal hospitalization with intensive care for a few days without being on a ventilator could well fall in the last category of 10% of the severely affected given the dismal state of our health care industry.

Hence, that means 20% of out population is at risk which translates to 27 -30 crores nearly 90% of which would result in casualties . That's about the population of the US .

Add the cost of caring for them to the economy, the pandemonium which'd ensue in caring for them & disposal of their corpses & the public outcry which follows. Which government could or would risk it?

I'm not even referring to the cases of malnutrition & undernourished ppl across age, sex & regions spread over India who'd perish adding to the list of casualties. In the event, given the poor implementation of the lock down in Maharashtra, particularly in Mumbai, to be blamed both on the ppl & the of the we're getting a glimpse of what not implementation of a lock down would mean.

This was always going to boil down to a trade off between the economy & casualty rate or rather an acceptable casualty rate.

Why cannot we start giving Hydroxy Chloroquine to all citizens as these are preventive medications

We are exporting millions of tablets

I meet many senior citizens , who are supposed to be most vulnerable

They are all relaxed but taking all precautions

What they all say is that the Fear of Death is much worse than Death

Even the young are more concerned about Living

Indian cities are too congested , so Zero cases are impossible

 

[_Anonymous_]

For TN,lockdown came very late.

Especially for the northern districts. Due to the proximity to bigger metros (Chennai n bangaluru) daily traffic was high between these areas.

The moment government announced lockdown,people from Chennai flocked to cmbt bus terminal like a rock concert to get to their native places and this situation lasted for more than a week.

Coronavirus scare in Tamil Nadu: Crowd before the curfew - Times of India

The Koymabedu bus terminus was a nightmare on Monday. No one cared about social distancing, as thousands crowded the terminus pushing and shoving to board the few buses that were plying in their bid to leave the city before the lockdown from 6 pm on Tuesday.

m.timesofindia.com

Plus,tabligi meet didn't help the situation either.

At one point,90% of the positive cases were reported from the tabligi attendees alone.

The lock down was implemented across the country around the same time. It's the enforcement which seems to be an issue. What else can account for rapid transmission in some States in spite of a lockdown as compared to other states.Another issue seems to me that when the first lock down was implemented, the rates of infection & the depth of it in some states was definitely more than what was assumed in the beginning. That explains why Maharashtra, Gujarat & TN are among the worst affected and together account for nearly 70-80% of the infected with the numbers growing exponentially in spite of a lock down today.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Why cannot we start giving Hydroxy Chloroquine to all citizens as these are preventive medications

We are exporting millions of tablets

I meet many senior citizens , who are supposed to be most vulnerable

They are all relaxed but taking all precautions

What they all say is that the Fear of Death is much worse than Death

Even the young are more concerned about Living

Indian cities are too congested , so Zero cases are impossible

HCQ isn't a universal panacea. It's shown encouraging results in some select cases. It's only coz Trump shot off his mouth like he's wont to & claimed it to be so besides appealing to Modi for export relaxation of it followed by Bolsinaro, etc appealing to India for it that Modi did what he does best. Capitalize on it, indulge in PR to boost his & India's public image particularly the former.

HCQ is known to cause severe side effects among ppl with a pre existing case of heart & kidney conditions & can be fatal too. Hence , it has to be strictly administered under medical supervision.

To come back to densely packed cities like mumbai, it seems to me that globally prescribed norms of 12 weeks to break or probably eliminate the chain of infection won't do. Out here, it'd be more like 16-20 weeks of ruthless implementation especially in red zones & containment areas if we're to break this otherwise we might as well open things up & rely on herd immunity.

I'm afraid the way we're going, this lock down would be implemented for another 2-4 weeks ( post end of lock down - 4 on 31st May) in the same wishy washy manner as it's being implemented now post which red zones or not you'd see opening up of all sectors in a graduated manner. In short, we're going to rely on herd immunity, casualties be damned. Udhwasth Thackeray ani chiu senachya kamaal.

 

[randomradio]

Guys,Is it okay to post my opinion piece on migrant crisis here?
It was a response to a guy in the other forum,i'll take it down if it breaks any forum rules,
Regards,

=====================================




Either enforce a full lockdown or let the people go about their life.
I am one those supported the lockdown(still asking for a full lockdown) but opposed for lifting it on the basis half baked data.

Im currently living in my hometown,which is a rural area.
According to the government data,my district is marked Orange but in reality it should be in red zone. The positive cases reached way above the breaking point.
(my relatives work in the health department,and visited few of those quarantine facilities myself)

All of my nearest college's and schools are working as make shift quarantine facilities.

Day before yesterday,5 positive cases were found in my nearest villages(within 4km or so).including a pregnant woman.

Revenue department officials came and physically cut down the access roads to those villages.

Including those 5 cases there 50+ cases in my 10km radius(which hosts 7 quarantine facilities)

All this ruckus in a quiet rural area,hence the myth of "yet to reach the villages" myth have been already busted. Community transmission has already started.

Current situation is way over our heads.

Wether,Migrants on the road or not ,we are doomed.

So my point is,why bother those poor souls along the way?

First of all,the logic of "certain states are pristine from infection,so allowing migrants will enhance the transmission" is a bogus statement. Those states do not even have proper grass root government set up.(like local revenue dept vao's,health dept. BDO offices etc)

If they don't have such set up how they could be sure of the infection rate ?

I'll go briefly on the migrant issue.

The way I see it,Welfare of any migrant belongs to three entities,
1.)Central government(mainly transportation,railways)
2.) State government of their origin
3.)state government of their work place.


If the central government kept the lockdown seriously,I wouldn't have cared for the migrant plight. But they didn't.


The central government gave nod for lifting the lockdown without proper planning and data.


we know what happened next, biggest example of the blunder is opening of booze houses.(I guess you might have seen the videos of tamils flocking into Ap wine shops)



If people get to have booze during this lockdown what's wrong for a migrant want to get home in this miserable time period?



i think your point is "even the host state/employers pay regularly,then they wouldn't stay so there,so the fault lies with them"


most of our decision makers are well educated,well paid civil service officials.

Despite their education, their excellent suggestion after a lockdown is" lets open those alcohol vomit shops,lets see what happens,"

If the educated, well paid official thinks like that,imagine what is the thought process of a underpaid migrant worker?

I heard stories of relatives (grandmas,grandpas,fathers,mothers)crying on the phone day/night begging them to come home. ie,they don't want them "suffer" in a unknown place.

Its a psychological thing, anothers cannot understand why they risking their life to get home.

If they wanna go home so what?

What's wrong with that thought?

They been here for 7-8 months on end and some for years.
In a time of crisis, people get home sick very easily. that's logical and expected.

My question is very simple.from the day one, Why haven't they(government) formulated a plan to move those migrants in a orderly mmanne?

Government could have moved them in tranches and held them in the district level quarantine centres. Heck they work hard and bring moolahs to their poverty ridden respective states.

Considering their contribution to the society,least we can do is treat them with respect.

Is it too much to ask for a train ride?

We elected governments for the welfare of our people.

To take care of us in the hour of crisis.

If the government fails on the prospect,we should question them and hold them accountable for
their mistakes.
Just because our favorite government is in the helm,it doesn't mean we have to give them a free pass.

Since you respect data so much, do you have numbers for migrants and the type of transportation available to move all those migrants at short notice during a lockdown?

 

[_Anonymous_]

Now tabligi gone, koyambedu source and contacts have struck..
Hope we control it soon, &
No new hidden case source reveals later ..

I don't think we can survive another strike..
Community transmission is around the corner..

What's the koyambedu source? Can you elaborate?

 

[Gust of Wind]

The lock down was implemented across the country around the same time

Imo,We should have implemented the lockdown in the February itself. That's what I meant for "came late".

 

[randomradio]

Can't say what the macro situation across the state is but looking at the rates of infection in TN it seems bad across the board? I wonder why. For except TN all the other southern states seem to be doing much better.

Complete and utter lack of discipline. People aren't following the lockdown rules.

 

[Gust of Wind]

do you have numbers for migrants

As an individual I do not have resources or time to collect data

 

[randomradio]

As an individual I do not have resources or time to collect data

Do you know that if every single train in India is used it can only move 23 million people a day? And these trains mainly operate from economically stronger areas to other stronger areas. There are more trains between Bangalore-Delhi than Bangalore-Varanasi. And this is all across India. If you want to move migrants from economically stronger areas back to weaker areas, then the absolute numbers per day falls drastically. At best, no more than 4 or 5 million a day.

If we assume there are at least 200 million migrants who wish to leave, we need 40 days just to move the whole lot.

Now rail services are govt owned and this can be achieved, although the lockdown will completely fail and by this time we would have had a million or more infected with at least 100,000 dead. Moving those millions of people will require a massive amount of supporting manpower after all. As for road transport, where the govt has little control, you won't find drivers willing to ferry the people.

So do you understand now why the govt can't simply ferry people around on their own?

People also complain about the lack of time before the lockdown was announced. This was naturally done so as to ensure there is minimum panic across the board. If people were given time, you would have seen logjammed highways and crowded bus and railways stations everywhere. People would have thronged to supermarkets and other areas in panic, instead of sitting at home and calmly awaiting further news, like the supply of essentials and so on.

There was nothing wrong with what the govt did. Only people expectations are unrealistic.

The people who failed the migrants are not the govt but other more privileged citizens themselves. All those who employed migrants should have continued paying their salaries, even those who were freelancers should have been paid as per their previous month's earnings. So instead of attacking the govt, people should attack the employers who failed to support their own employees. Switch your target elsewhere. The govt is not a babysitter.

 

[Sathya]

What's the koyambedu source? Can you elaborate?

Koyembedu is a large vegetables market in Chennai..
Large number of people went to their native after the market is closed.

1000 x cases of positive covid spread out through out the state.

Current increase in cases in TN especially in few district s like ariyalur, perambalur can be entirely attributed to Chennai veg market.

 

[Gust of Wind]

What's the koyambedu source? Can you elaborate?

Koyambedu is an area part of Chennai where central vegetable/fruit market is located.

Second wave of transmission started from this place.

Koyambedu: India's coronavirus cluster at a vegetable market

An outbreak in one of India’s biggest markets has revealed the challenge of regulating them.

www.bbc.com

 

[Gust of Wind]

The govt is not a babysitter.

Then the government doesn't have any locus standi over its subjects. Let them stop collecting taxes,abolish the military and police etc.

Let play the game of"survival of the fittest".

What happens the disgruntled labours goes into rioting mode?

Anyway,I've given solution for that in my post too.

My question is very simple.from the day one, Why haven't they(government) formulated a plan to move those migrants in a orderly manner?

Government could have moved them in tranches and held them in the district level quarantine centres.

They could've given tokens/tickets based on their home state. Even They could've hired travel agencies to connect to those missing links.
Remember,post lockdown bus transport too got shut down. So thousands of both government and private buses are sitting idly in the parking lots across the country.

Plus Indian railways are accustomed to crowding. They gone through many diwali rush bookings.

If a economic power like india can't figure out a model to transport its stranded citizens,what is there to discuss.

Hope, we don't run in circles in the name of discussion.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Hope, we don't run in circles in the name of discussion

Ibtadaa ishq hain rotaa hain kya?
Aage aage dekhiye hota hain kya?

Before you protest that being a Tamilkam you don't understand it, let me direct you to randomradio who'd give you a very selective reading of it .

All the best for the rest of your discussion. Since you've expressed an urge to learn in your very first post, let me inform you, you can't get a better teacher than randomradio. It's your good fortune that you've chosen to log in here.

 

[randomradio]

Then the government doesn't have any locus standi over its subjects. Let them stop collecting taxes,abolish the military and police etc.

Let play the game of"survival of the fittest".

What happens the disgruntled labours goes into rioting mode?

Anyway,I've given solution for that in my post too.

Now you are supporting one irrational theory with another irrational theory.

No, the govt has no real obligation to take care of you. It's not your parent.

They could've given tokens/tickets based on their home state. Even They could've hired travel agencies to connect to those missing links.
Remember,post lockdown bus transport too got shut down. So thousands of both government and private buses are sitting idly in the parking lots across the country.

Plus Indian railways are accustomed to crowding. They gone through many diwali rush bookings.

If a economic power like india can't figure out a model to transport its stranded citizens,what is there to discuss.

Hope, we don't run in circles in the name of discussion.

You haven't understood. All the train drivers, guards, linesmen etc are sitting at home. This is a lockdown. Buses and trains do not move on their own.

If you are arguing about sending migrants home, then instead you should be saying we shouldn't have had a lockdown in the first place. You can't have both.

 

[Gust of Wind]

Meanwhile,human misery continues,

A migrant worker from Chhattisgarh who started walking back home from Kadapa along with his family members including two infants in a makeshift doli. Head Constable Jagdish Kumar saw their plight while at work in Yemmiganur town and arranged vehicle for them #MigrantWorkers

https://twitter.com/x/status/1261529473498836993

Sunita is inconsolable. Her husband has passed away in Sasaram, Bihar, and she is stuck at Delhi-UP border since last night. Workers/labourers are being stopped here now #MigrantLabour

https://twitter.com/x/status/1261836012751208448

https://twitter.com/x/status/1261872027092172800

https://twitter.com/x/status/1261909920552677376

The #MigrantLabour crisis is an unmitigated disaster. Most on roads and those stuck at state borders have no clue. The government should have established help desks at borders to guide people on how to get transport and provide them relief.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1261905583252234240

At this juncture,whats the point of lockdown?

Let them die of corona,at their place of choosing,it'll be much more humane