Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
- Start date
They need to place an average of over
199 BILLION Rubles at every remaining auction day during Q3 to meet their Q3 goal.
This is MORE THAN DOUBLE the largest amount they have placed during a single auction day in 2024
Also worth noting here:
199 Billion is more than double what the DEMAND was for Auction Day 7 (Constant Coupon Bonds are no where near as in demand as variable rate)
Stryker try to hide but there is no hiding anymore.
Ukrainian SPG providing support for Ukrainian invasion forces destroyed
Ukrainian SPG providing support for Ukrainian invasion forces destroyed
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German Iris-T with 100% interception success rate got destroyed in the Sumy region by an Iskander strike.
Although the Central Bank holds a press conference on the same day as the bank meeting, this report provides additional information.
The release of this report then generated a series new articles about the key rate.
This means people were given new details about the bad news.
People were also reminded that the Central Bank was sending signals from that meeting that the key rate could go up again before the end of the year AND that people were discussing numbers like
20%
This would likely further drive people towards variable rate bonds.
It’s unclear how much of this news would have impacted the OFZ bonds sales during last weeks auction placement (I don’t know what time the report was released vs when the auction occurred) but it would have an effect now.
And it’s *possible* that after learning that no Variable Rate bonds would be offered at this week’s auction, some of the usual participants chose not to participate at all.
Their absence (likely featuring a more hawkish attitude) may have brought down the overall yield%
But the article didn’t point out 2 very big possible future problems
1. That there won’t be enough capital available to meet the Government’s financing needs
2. The public lose confidence in the government’s ability to PAY OUT on the bonds.
It’s important to realize that if the Russian Government isn’t able to
Increase Enough Revenue (through new taxes, fees, nationalizations) Cut Costs Secure Financing (Bond)
To deal with their skyrocketing expenses
THEN…
And many of the poor choices that they made to get this point will result in unavoidable consequences in the future. Even if they ended the war today.
It summary
IT WILL GET WORSE
~ The End ~
Two, one is highly dubious and both lacked secondaries.
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united24media.com
Good news, Russian assets on the decline.But the article didn’t point out 2 very big possible future problems1. That there won’t be enough capital available to meet the Government’s financing needs2. The public lose confidence in the government’s ability to PAY OUT on the bonds.It’s important to realize that if the Russian Government isn’t able toTo deal with their skyrocketing expensesTHEN…
