Ukraine - Russia Conflict

An extract from a very interesting ISW report:

Key Takeaways:
  • Ukrainian armored vehicles are operating beyond the final line of the Russian defensive layer that Ukrainian forces in western Zaporizhia Oblast are currently penetrating, although ISW is not yet prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken fully through this Russian defensive layer.
  • Russian forces currently defending in western Zaporizhia Oblast have been unable to prevent Ukrainian forces from making gradual but steady advances since mid-August.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes targeting the Russian airfield near occupied Saky, Crimea, and may have damaged Russian aircraft.
  • Satellite imagery confirms that Ukrainian forces also struck the 744th Communications Center of the Command of the Black Sea Fleet in occupied Crimea on September 20 as part of an apparent Ukrainian effort to target Black Sea Fleet facilities.
  • Russian forces conducted a notably large series of missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 20 to 21, likely to correspond with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the United States.
  • The Kremlin continues to seek to intensify divisions between Ukraine and its Central European partners following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
  • The Russian State Duma will reportedly propose a bill allowing the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) to include volunteer formations amid continued rumors about the Wagner Group operating alongside Rosgvardia.
  • The Kremlin is reportedly pushing propaganda narratives that highlight Russian artillery and aviation while downplaying the efforts of Russian forces conducting ground operations, likely in order to avoid discussion of Russian personnel losses and poor counterbattery capabilities.
  • The Kremlin is likely aiming to blame Armenian leadership and the West for Azerbaijan’s recent military operation into Nagorno-Karabakh.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not advance.
 

In France, they write that Ukraine can get Mirage fighters. Here is Ignat's reaction​


This guy should be fired. What the hell does he mean outdated? Compared to what? Does Ukraine understand what their air force is made up of? Even if these are the older Mirage 2000c with no fox-3 capability they will likely come with the uploaded software to carry the exocet missile and scalp which that alone Ukraine should accept these Mirages. If France is giving scalps I'm pretty sure they won't mind giving exocet missiles and that could be a game changer for Ukraine in the black sea.

Also if those mirages come with refueling probes now you can start imagining maybe Ukraine getting thier hands on a couple of KC-130 Hercules from the US or the many Euro nations that fly these.

Mirage2000_FAB_02.jpg

Now these mirages come with a very long range strike capability with their scalps. Sochi Russia now becomes in range.
 
New attack in Crimea with Scalp + Drone


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Ukrainian missile attack on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine launched a missile attack on the city of Sevastopol. As a result of the attack, the historical headquarters building of the Black Sea Fleet was damaged. Reportedly, while repelling a missile attack, Russian air defense systems shot down five missiles. The Russian headquarters building is located in the very center of the city, judging by the video, one of the missiles hit the building. At the moment, according to available information, one soldier was killed and six people were injured.

 
A video of a Russian kamikaze drone “Lancet” striking a Ukrainian AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar, made in the USA, has been published. Judging by the video, the AN/TPQ-50 radar was destroyed.

 

Ukraine FPV drone destroys Russian bunker as soldiers flee for their lives at a crossroad​