Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[randomradio]

It seems that the coordination of Russian attacks has greatly diminished in recent days and they are spreading themselves and their firepower around by going after several targets.

For example, the effort on Sievierodonetsk even at the expense of the push via Popasna is not very rational (but the Russians may have been hoping to repeat the Lyman scenario with a quick capture of the town, except that it seems that the Ukrainian counter-battery fire from the heights is quite effective).

The Russians probably thought that after the fall of Lyman the Ukrainians would let go of the left bank of the Donets, this is not yet a fact and it fixes Russian troops who are not participating in the effort on the Ukrainian salient.

The fighting to the south-east of Lysychansk is apparently terrible, but again the Russians are not taking action because of a lack of reserves.
Similarly the effort on Avdiivka would be much more important operationally but the troops (DPR) who broke through the Ukrainian front line complained of not being supported / not having reserves.

It just looks like the boss has ordered a general attack hoping for a quick outcome.

After the failure to cross the Donets near Bilohorivka, the main Russian thrust is happening through Popasna to create the cauldron in Lysychansk. So the Russians are pushing to Zolotarivka in Popasna's north and a slow push to Soledar in the west. The Russians cannot take Lysychansk through Severo, so the main thrust has to come from Popasna or the front won't move. There's also a push happening towards Myrna Dolyna to cut off the Ukrainians at Zolote and Hirske. This area is bound to fall to the Russians once the cauldron is created.

As for Avdiivka, the Russian are moving through the north of the area to cut the Ukrainians off. This will force the units in Avdiivka to move west towards the M-04 highway that connects to Dnipro city. H-20 has already been cut off.

Between Lyman and Izyum, the Ukrainians have retreated to the other side of the Donets, but still hold the high ground. And to the south of Izyum the Russians are pushing rapidly to cut off Slovyansk from the west.

The Russian offensive is based on a plan, it's not a general attack.

 

[Tatvamasi]

Tell that to the MENA nations who are short of food due to Russia's blockade of the Black Sea.

We don't tell, we supply them with food. Because we are a food surplus nation.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

After the failure to cross the Donets near Bilohorivka, the main Russian thrust is happening through Popasna to create the cauldron in Lysychansk.

The russians obviously did not try to close the Lysychansk encirclement.

The tip of the salient lies nicely on the main road... And most of the attacks are aimed at widening the salient. Basically it's consolidating more than it's advancing.

 

[randomradio]

It appears Zolote has been cut off from Lysychansk, at least there's fighting going on at Myrna Dolyna. And from Popasna, the Russians have advanced to Soledar and cut off access to Lysychansk. So there's only one secondary road left to take to form a cauldron. And it could trap 15k Ukrainian troops in the cauldron.



So based on this map (outdated map from 22nd March):
The big yellow road from Bakhmut (the intersection of all the yellow lines) into Lysychansk has been cut off at Soledar and Bilohorivka. The only road now connecting Lysychansk to the rest of Ukraine is the yellow dotted line, which is a small road. So the intersection between the main road and the dotted road is the next major target, Zolotarivka. Siversk would have been a better target if the Russians could cross the Donets river, but they failed. You can see where they failed at the northern most red line that's been crossed out in blue, Bilohorivka (different town).

So, in two weeks or so, we could see the entire area falling under Russian control. Then the Ukrainians could fall back to the Bakhmut-Slovyansk line, the yellow road that goes northwest from Bakhmut. And the outskirts of Bakhmut is already under artillery fire.

If Bakhmut falls, then another cauldron will form in the southwest of Popasna, which also has thousands of UAF troops.

In the meantime, while Avdiivka is being encircled by the Russians, the 4-5k Ukrainians there are busy shelling civilians in Donetsk, which hasn't really changed in the last many years.

 

[randomradio]

The russians obviously did not try to close the Lysychansk encirclement.

The tip of the salient lies nicely on the main road... And most of the attacks are aimed at widening the salient. Basically it's consolidating more than it's advancing.

To add to my post above, the Russians have already pushed into Berestove along the big yellow road, which is as you say, but the encirclement is the next step. Once they take Vrubivka to the east of Berestove, it will give the Russians two road accesses to Mykolaivka (cutting off Hirske-Zolote in the process). The next step would be Spirne to the southwest of the oil refinery near Zolotarivka, which would cover the flanks for the advance, followed by taking the oil refinery itself. The Russians are only 12Km away from their objective.

 

[jetray]

To add to my post above, the Russians have already pushed into Berestove along the big yellow road, which is as you say, but the encirclement is the next step. Once they take Vrubivka to the east of Berestove, it will give the Russians two road accesses to Mykolaivka (cutting off Hirske-Zolote in the process). The next step would be Spirne to the southwest of the oil refinery near Zolotarivka, which would cover the flanks for the advance, followed by taking the oil refinery itself. The Russians are only 12Km away from their objective.

I think russian strategy is to grow the flanks on north & south , narrowing down the area in between ukranian troops either break it or fall back to avoid encirclement. russian troops will try to disrupt the supply line from either side as the gap narrows, which will increase the pressure on ukranian troops. If they are able to totally cut off then , they can expect very less fighting from the other side unless we have another mariopol thing take place.

 

[randomradio]

I think russian strategy is to grow the flanks on north & south , narrowing down the area in between ukranian troops either break it or fall back to avoid encirclement. russian troops will try to disrupt the supply line from either side as the gap narrows, which will increase the pressure on ukranian troops. If they are able to totally cut off then , they can expect very less fighting from the other side unless we have another mariopol thing take place.

Yeah, the Russians started off with very big plans back in Feb for encirclement and slowly dropped it down over time, not enough troops. They lost the maneuver advantage in the first week and switched over to attrition warfare. Now the only saving grace for them is they are losing much lesser troops and materials than the Ukrainians.

The UAF did stupid things too, like chasing after Russian troops outside Kharkiv, the so-called counteroffensive in Kherson, and possibly the counteroffensive now in Severo. All three attacks were countered using artillery. The first two went really bad for UAF while the third one is still ongoing. The third one's in the claim-counterclaim phase.

 

[RISING SUN]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533165345141362688

 

[RISING SUN]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1521777530805661696

 

[BMD]

Russia is stopping food supplies because the West has boxed Russia inside the Black Sea. Obviously there's space for common ground.

Nope, it's stopping food supplies because it's under sanctions. Putin's lying to you, there is no blockade in the Med.

We don't tell, we supply them with food. Because we are a food surplus nation.

We supply them with food via roads now too. Russia will pay the additional costs via seized assets.

EU steps up effort to bring millions of tonnes of grain out of Ukraine

Russian blockade of ports forces search for alternative routes to supply countries relying on cereals from wartorn country

www.ft.com

 

[BMD]

Yeah, the Russians started off with very big plans back in Feb for encirclement and slowly dropped it down over time, not enough troops. They lost the maneuver advantage in the first week and switched over to attrition warfare. Now the only saving grace for them is they are losing much lesser troops and materials than the Ukrainians.

Says who? Russia?

The UAF did stupid things too, like chasing after Russian troops outside Kharkiv, the so-called counteroffensive in Kherson, and possibly the counteroffensive now in Severo. All three attacks were countered using artillery. The first two went really bad for UAF while the third one is still ongoing. The third one's in the claim-counterclaim phase.

As one Russian soldier said yesterday, "leave the lying to Putin."

 

[randomradio]

Nope, it's stopping food supplies because it's under sanctions. Putin's lying to you, there is no blockade in the Med.

Food cannot be sanctioned by international law.

 

[RISING SUN]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1529743297815650304

 

[BMD]

Food cannot be sanctioned by international law.

Food isn't being sanctioned. Russia is blockading the Black Sea because it's under sanctions, which prevents grain reaching MENA.

 

[randomradio]

Says who? Russia?

Says experts and also common sense.

Food isn't being sanctioned. Russia is blockading the Black Sea because it's under sanctions, which prevents grain reaching MENA.

Turkey has blocked Russian ships at Bosphorus.

 

[BMD]

Ukrainian artillerymen from the 45th and 43rd OABR destroyed the enemy's ammunition depot in the Zaporozhye region

 

[BMD]

Says experts and also common sense.

Western estimates say 15,000 Russians troops killed, and 11,000 Ukrainian troops.

Turkey has blocked Russian ships at Bosphorus.

Nope, Turkey has stopped only military vessels entering, in line with Montreux Convention.

 

[RISING SUN]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533198412543295488

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Yeah, the Russians started off with very big plans back in Feb for encirclement and slowly dropped it down over time, not enough troops. They lost the maneuver advantage in the first week and switched over to attrition warfare. Now the only saving grace for them is they are losing much lesser troops and materials than the Ukrainians.

The UAF did stupid things too, like chasing after Russian troops outside Kharkiv, the so-called counteroffensive in Kherson, and possibly the counteroffensive now in Severo. All three attacks were countered using artillery. The first two went really bad for UAF while the third one is still ongoing. The third one's in the claim-counterclaim phase.

Russian tactics are so brilliant that when they are not killed, Russian generals are replaced.

 

[BMD]

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-708588

Ukraine military intelligence claims Russia dependent on western tech​

The GUR said US-made electronics were found in Russian Pantsir air defense systems, Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters and Kh-101 cruise missiles.​

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

Published: JUNE 5, 2022 04:54

Russian Air Force Kamov Ka-52
(photo credit: FEDOR LEUKHIN/CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)/VIA WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)


The Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR), Ukraine's military intelligence service, claimed last Tuesday in a post on its official website that it had obtained evidence that invading Russian forces are using microchips made in the United States.

According to the post, US-made electronics were found in Russian Pantsir air defense systems, Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters and Kh-101 cruise missiles.

According to Howard Altman of The War Zone, who received component lists from the GUR, Ukrainians found microchips manufactured by AMD, Rochester Electronics, Texas Instruments and Linear Technology in a Pantsir air defense system and at least 35 additional US-made chips were found in a Kh-101 cruise missile.

A Pantsir-S surface-to-air missile system fires a missile during the Keys to the Sky competition at the International Army Games 2017 at the Ashuluk shooting range outside Astrakhan, Russia August 5, 2017 (credit: MAXIM SHEMETOV/REUTERS)

Previous claims​

The GUR claimed that these findings emphasize Russia's dependence on Western technology. These underscore the GUR's previous claims that western sanctions have disrupted Russian military production.

The Jerusalem Post reported in March that the GUR said Russia may need to resort to producing older components and vehicles due to a lack of key foreign components and that Russia was attempting to repair old vehicles in order to replace ones that had been lost or destroyed during the invasion.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533198412543295488

But Russia isn't trying to stop grain getting out.