The significance of Arihant

[Ashwin]

That's impossible. For the reasons I have already pointed out.

Take this for example:
https://www.ruaviation.com/news/2015/12/25/4522/

The first contract expected us to buy 6000 missiles from Russia for the S-400. And much more than half this stock has very effective BMD capability against SRBMs and MRBMs. How many missiles will Pakistanis use to overwhelm these many missiles?

Yeah, now we are counting S400 as BMD ! That too all 6000 missiles. Even the US is struggling to keep their small bases safe from BM. While here you are predicting we will clear 3000 km of the boundary from BM and CM.

Not at all. It's just cruise missiles, the missiles can be shot down by both ships and fighter jets long before they have even crossed half the Arabian Sea. We have far too many surveillance assets in comparison to our actual needs during wartime since a lot of it has been built to contend with China.

Of course, shooting down is not the problem but detecting well ahead is. Arabian coastline is too long and we have so many value targets to cover.

 

[randomradio]

Yeah, now we are counting S400 as BMD ! That too all 6000 missiles. Even the US is struggling to keep their small bases safe from BM. While here you are predicting we will clear 3000 km of the boundary from BM and CM.

Only you can throw everything out of context. Why bring US bases here? Everybody and their dog knows the US doesn't invest a lot in SAMs, and their SAMs are not good at BMD. Only their BMD ships are good at that job.

The S-400 is BMD capable, if you didn't know. And the main threat from Pakistan is SRBMs and MRBMs, which the S-400 is capable of defeating. You can say that there's not a single missile in Pakistan's inventory that the S-400 cannot defeat. And right now, they do not have any IRBMs in their inventory.

Of course, shooting down is not the problem but detecting well ahead is. Arabian coastline is too long and we have so many value targets to cover.

Not really. We have an oversupply of assets for surveillance. Even the subs won't be able to escape the net, let alone being able to fire missiles.

You also forget that they do not have the range necessary to fire from anywhere they want. If their subs are to retain stealth, the missiles need to be fired in lo-lo profile. Considering their best CM cannot do anything more than 700Km at high altitude, the lo-lo profile won't be any better than 200-250Km. Which sub in their inventory can operate at such distances from the shoreline?

Hell, you forget that submerged submarines of the kind they operate do not even have the range to come close to India's shoreline. Even the Kilo class's range when submerged is less than 800Km one way. So they can't really operate anywhere outside Gujarat's shores without being detected. The Pakistanis operate submarines in order to keep fuel supply lines open to the Gulf, so that's where their main focus is on. Only the SMX Ocean has long range and sufficient speed without needing to surface.

At best, all they can do is fire missiles from a safe corner of their sea at max range, that's before Sir Creek. Meaning, they can't get to cities below Mumbai at all. Mumbai is their absolute borderline with a 700Km missile. Similarly, they can't do any damage beyond Jodhpur. So their sea strike capability is pretty much non-existent.

Maybe some day they will make cruise missiles with ranges of 2000Km or so to be effective. You take a guess how long that will take.

It's simple. Without an SSBN, their dreams of launching nukes from the sea are pretty much non-existent. And with IN dominating the Arabian Sea, their SSBNs have nowhere to operate. It's only their fanboys dreaming of a nuclear triad.

 

[Ashwin]

Why won't china be bothered about Indian ssbn . K4 itself can Target a whole lot of Chinese cities even before k5/6 comes into being.

Numbers and doctrine. Its not that hard to understand.

Nsg was simply an example of china being bothered.

NSG and Hafiz Saeed both were for foreign policy signaling. Not tied to an outcome.

Not to mention having nuke warheads on a diesal sub is something no one has done ! Wonder why?

Obviously you are not aware of Dolphin and Popeye.

They will have to run away to farther corners of Indian ocean to survive which will necessitate longer range ballistic missiles which will necessitate more expenditure on development of such missiles .

That is not how sub-hunting works here!. Its very hard to detect a hidden SSBN/SSB because its job is just to hide and wait for the order to fire. Unlike attack subs which are constantly on more.

In this case, they do not even need to leave pakistani EEZ.

But it does. Survivability is the whole logic of second strike capability. To survive they need range and unlimited endurance. How will they hide from p8i and it's magnetic anamoly detector. There endurance will greatly decrease with heavy ballistic missiles . Plus they will have to master the tech of firing ballistic missiles from under water.

We are not going to fight world war to assume unlimited endurance or nothing. MAD is a useless tech unless you have a 100-200 meter radius first to locate. USN P-8 do not even have those. Its not a silver bullet as you think.

Even after I concede to all your points theoretically I still don't get how it's a dilemma for india. Like you say we have a no first use policy. So we aren't going to pre-emptively strike Pakistan so what does it matter if they have ssb or not ? How does that affect our policy to match up to china ? The whole notion underlying that article is ridiculous.

I would recommend you spend more on better understanding various nuances of nuclear deterrence at play. It is not that straightforward as you assume.

Challenges to India's Nuclear Doctrine” by Retired Indian Vice Admiral Vijay Shankar
India’s Counterforce Temptations
South Asian strategic stability a Pakistani perspective

 

[Ashwin]

Only you can throw everything out of context. Why bring US bases here? Everybody and their dog knows the US doesn't invest a lot in SAMs, and their SAMs are not good at BMD. Only their BMD ships are good at that job.

The S-400 is BMD capable, if you didn't know. And the main threat from Pakistan is SRBMs and MRBMs, which the S-400 is capable of defeating. You can say that there's not a single missile in Pakistan's inventory that the S-400 cannot defeat. And right now, they do not have any IRBMs in their inventory.

Is there an actual real-life test of 'BMD capability' of these 6000 missiles? Does anyone use it solely for the role? No.

Not really. We have an oversupply of assets for surveillance.

No one else can claim this. None other than our resident optimist.

You also forget that they do not have the range necessary to fire from anywhere they want. If their subs are to retain stealth, the missiles need to be fired in lo-lo profile. Considering their best CM cannot do anything more than 700Km at high altitude, the lo-lo profile won't be any better than 200-250Km. Which sub in their inventory can operate at such distances from the shoreline?

Hell, you forget that submerged submarines of the kind they operate do not even have the range to come close to India's shoreline. Even the Kilo class's range when submerged is less than 800Km one way. So they can't really operate anywhere outside Gujarat's shores without being detected. The Pakistanis operate submarines in order to keep fuel supply lines open to the Gulf, so that's where their main focus is on. Only the SMX Ocean has long range and sufficient speed without needing to surface.

At best, all they can do is fire missiles from a safe corner of their sea at max range, that's before Sir Creek. Meaning, they can't get to cities below Mumbai at all. Mumbai is their absolute borderline with a 700Km missile. Similarly, they can't do any damage beyond Jodhpur. So their sea strike capability is pretty much non-existent.

Maybe some day they will make cruise missiles with ranges of 2000Km or so to be effective. You take a guess how long that will take.

It's simple. Without an SSBN, their dreams of launching nukes from the sea are pretty much non-existent. And with IN dominating the Arabian Sea, their SSBNs have nowhere to operate. It's only their fanboys dreaming of a nuclear triad.

We do not have the capability to clear our entire coastline 24*7. Only something like SOSUS can do it.

The range of an SSK is depended on speed and task. 800Km where do you come up with these? Modern SSKs with AIP can hide for 50+ days without submerging and travel long distances with minimal speed.

 

[randomradio]

Is there an actual real-life test of 'BMD capability' of these 6000 missiles? Does anyone use it solely for the role? No.

S-400 SA-20 Triumf - Russia / Soviet Nuclear Forces
And the anti-missile capability of the system has been increased to the limits established by the ABM Treaty demarcation agreements -- it can intercept targets with velocities of up to 4.8 km/sec, corresponding to a ballistic missile range of 3,500 km.

a gas-dynamic control system enables the 9M96 missile to maneuver at altitudes of up to 35 km at forces of over 20g, which permits engagment of non- strategic ballistic missiles.

Which aircraft flies at 35Km?

No one else can claim this. None other than our resident optimist.

I already told you, we have an oversupply because we have to deal with China. This is an in-your-face fact.

We do not have the capability to clear our entire coastline 24*7. Only something like SOSUS can do it.

You think we do not have underwater sensors? That's pretty much among the cheapest sensors available for submarine hunting.

The range of an SSK is depended on speed and task. 800Km where do you come up with these? Modern SSKs with AIP can hide for 50+ days without submerging and travel long distances with minimal speed.

SSK Kilo Class (Type 636) - Naval Technology
Range is 7,500 miles when snorkelling at 7kt and 400 miles when submerged at 3kt.

Lada Class Patrol Submarine | Military-Today.com
The Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) system increases the Lada class submerged endurance to 45 days. The submerged cruising range is 500 nautical miles (900 km) at 3 knots.

Why else do you think the Americans don't give two hoots about SSKs?

An AIP can keep you underwater, that doesn't mean you are carrying enough fuel to go everywhere you want. Most of the times you are not even moving.

 

[Ashwin]

S-400 SA-20 Triumf - Russia / Soviet Nuclear Forces
And the anti-missile capability of the system has been increased to the limits established by the ABM Treaty demarcation agreements -- it can intercept targets with velocities of up to 4.8 km/sec, corresponding to a ballistic missile range of 3,500 km.

a gas-dynamic control system enables the 9M96 missile to maneuver at altitudes of up to 35 km at forces of over 20g, which permits engagment of non- strategic ballistic missiles.

Which aircraft flies at 35Km?

You did not answer the question. We bought it for SAM role and it will not be guarding indian cities.

I already told you, we have an oversupply because we have to deal with China. This is an in-your-face fact.

Oversupply of what? Our billion-dollar warships are going to sea without AWS helicopters or towed array sonars.

We have an oversupply of imagination.

You think we do not have underwater sensors? That's pretty much among the cheapest sensors available for submarine hunting.

Yeah right. Till last year our naval harbours were without diver detection sonars. Which are worth a few millions.

An AIP can keep you underwater, that doesn't mean you are carrying enough fuel to go everywhere you want. Most of the times you are not even moving.

The range comes in to play when you are hunting. For SSB role it is less of a factor.

Surprised to see Lada has much less range. Then again russian AIP and a sub per design. Then again Type 39B is 1000 ton bigger.

 

[Indianhawk]

That is not how sub-hunting works here!. Its very hard to detect a hidden SSBN/SSB because its job is just to hide and wait for the order to fire. Unlike attack subs which are constantly on more.

In this case, they do not even need to leave pakistani EEZ

We won't just start searching them when in war. In fact we already keep track of their subs . In balakot episode we found out there sub hiding on western edge of Pakistani coast. Not to mention our own ssk will be constantly looking for them in nooks and corners of arabian sea even in peace time. Their EEZ is too near to us and that is a disadvantage for them .

At top of that if they convert their ssk into ssb that means they have even less subs letf to face conventional challenges that Indian Navy will subject them too.

would recommend you spend more on better understanding various nuances of nuclear deterrence at play. It is not that straightforward as you assume.

You haven't answered the main point still. Even if Pakistan balances Indian nuke posture. Does that stop India from matching china ? The answer is clear No. India will match chinese nuke posture ragardless of what Pakistan does of doesn't. So there is no dilemma at all. Has our ssbn program slowed or stopped because of what Pakistan might do ? Nope it's going on as it was planned. No effect of Pakistani response at all.

That is what I was saying from the beginning . You some how twisted it into some grand theory of nuclear standoff.

Ask your self a simple question even if India didn't went for ssbn or second strike capability wouldn't Pakistans own insecurities compell them to come with this joke of an ssb on their own . Or do you think without Indian ssbn Pakistani would never attempt an ssb of their own.

Why then link the two?

Is there an actual real-life test of 'BMD capability' of these 6000 missiles? Does anyone use it solely for the role? No.


No one else can claim this. None other than our resident optimist.


We do not have the capability to clear our entire coastline 24*7. Only something like SOSUS can do it.

The range of an SSK is depended on speed and task. 800Km where do you come up with these? Modern SSKs with AIP can hide for 50+ days without submerging and travel long distances with minimal speed.

Ballistic missile or even big cruise missile and nuke warheads will negatively affect both range and endurance.

 

[Indianhawk]

Surprised to see Lada has much less range. Then again russian API and a sub per design. Then again Type 39B is 1000 ton bigger.

Chinese subs are even more badly designed. Most of them never leave home ports. A lot remain forever in maintainace yards . Chinese aip is also unproven .

 

[_Anonymous_]

Chinese subs are even more badly designed. Most of them never leave home ports. A lot remain forever in maintainace yards . Chinese aip is also unproven .

In case you didn't notice, the Chinese had a Yuan class equipped with AIP spotted near Aceh or off the Sri Lankan coast a few years ago.

 

[Indianhawk]

In case you didn't notice, the Chinese had a Yuan class equipped with AIP spotted near Aceh or off the Sri Lankan coast a few years ago.

I said most of them not all. Is there a confusion ?
Chinese have dozens of yuan , Pakistan will have only eight.

 

[Ashwin]

We won't just start searching them when in war. In fact we already keep track of their subs . In balakot episode we found out there sub hiding on western edge of Pakistani coast. Not to mention our own ssk will be constantly looking for them in nooks and corners of arabian sea even in peace time. Their EEZ is too near to us and that is a disadvantage for them .

Its impossible to keep track of submarines all the time. Even USN cant do it. Especially SSKs.

Why do you think advanced nations like UK are solely dependent on SSBN for nuclear delivery.

You haven't answered the main point still. Even if Pakistan balances Indian nuke posture. Does that stop India from matching china ? The answer is clear No. India will match chinese nuke posture ragardless of what Pakistan does of doesn't. So there is no dilemma at all. Has our ssbn program slowed or stopped because of what Pakistan might do ? Nope it's going on as it was planned. No effect of Pakistani response at all.

That is what I was saying from the beginning . You some how twisted it into some grand theory of nuclear standoff.

Ask your self a simple question even if India didn't went for ssbn or second strike capability wouldn't Pakistans own insecurities compell them to come with this joke of an ssb on their own . Or do you think without Indian ssbn Pakistani would never attempt an ssb of their own.

I did, you skipped it. I don't think you fully grasp what a dilemma means. It is not stopping anything it just increases risk by tilting the balance.

Why then link the two?

Ok, that settles it. Nothing to add.

Chinese subs are even more badly designed. Most of them never leave home ports. A lot remain forever in maintainace yards . Chinese aip is also unproven .

Again these kinds of blanket simplistic statements do not help.

 

[Indianhawk]

Why do you think advanced nations like UK are solely dependent on SSBN for nuclear delivery.

All nuclear power depend on ssbn or are building ssbn . Because they can go to open ocean to remian undetected. This is why P5 and India itself are not Fielding nukes of ssk because ssk can't go to open oceans to hide. That is why ssk are trackable if they are forced to reside in coastal waters. We have come full circle with this. You are actually proving my point now.

don't think you fully grasp what a dilemma means. It is not stopping anything it just increases risk by tilting the balance of power.

Eh ! Dilemma means state of indecision because of said risks . If you are decisive that means there is no longer a dilemma. We are going forward with our nuke programs as was decided no dilemma at all. No hesitation . No indecision . No re assessment.

Again these kinds of blanket simplistic statements do not help.

These are mere facts. They were in respond to Russian sub capabilities which are still way ahead of china. Point is Pakistan will more likely chose agusta aip to field babur. Time will tell.

Ok, that settles it. Nothing to add.

Agreed .

 

[Ashwin]

All nuclear power depend on ssbn or are building ssbn . Because they can go to open ocean to remian undetected. This is why P5 and India itself are not Fielding nukes of ssk because ssk can't go to open oceans to hide. That is why ssk are trackable if they are forced to reside in coastal waters. We have come full circle with this. You are actually proving my point now.

No one is stopping an SSK from going open waters. Of course, nuclear submarines are more capable. That doesn't take away the utility of diesel submarines.

In last post you said IN is tracking all subs now it has become now they are undetectable!. Yes, I have proven how you are not capable of presenting a coherent argument.

Eh ! Dilemma means state of indecision because of said risks . If you are decisive that means there is no longer a dilemma. We are going forward with our nuke programs as was decided no dilemma at all. No hesitation . No indecision . No re assessment.

Again a naive blanket statement. Yes, you are not thinking anything. That doesn't mean Indian policymakers are. Have you read their writings? No one who has followed these things will not say that we do not weigh our decisions.

These are mere facts.

Facts? Is there a cited research paper or do you have access to classified documents?

 

[Indianhawk]

No one is stopping an SSK from going open waters. Of course, nuclear submarines are more capable. That doesn't take away the utility of diesel submarines.

In last post you said IN is tracking all subs now it has become now they are undetectable!. Yes, I have proven how you are not capable of presenting a coherent argument.

I said ssbn ( nuke subs ) are undetectable in open ocean read my post again. You are only proving your that your comprehensive skills are not upto task.

No one who has followed these things will not say that we do not weigh our decisions.

They may weight on our other decision. With regards to our ssbn program there is no change in policy. Again you are linking two separate issues same as the article. Again not comprehending the difference in rationale of our ssbn program.

No one is stopping an SSK from going open waters. Of course, nuclear submarines are more capable. That doesn't take away the utility of diesel submarines.

In last post you said IN is tracking all subs now it has become now they are undetectable!. Yes, I have proven how you are not capable of presenting a coherent argument.


Again a naive blanket statement. Yes, you are not thinking anything. That doesn't mean Indian policymakers are. Have you read their writings? No one who has followed these things will not say that we do not weigh our decisions.


Facts? Is there a cited research paper or do you have access to classified documents?

Russian have been making submarine long before Chinese . If you believe Chinese design/ executions is better than Russian subs the onus of proof lies on you. To any naval wather it has been obvious where Chinese stand vis a vis russians.


And to the point of ssk going to open ocean they can't do that with heavy loads or without snorkeling.
Even then I previously said the same thing that Pakistani ask will have to hide in farther corners of arabian sea to be undetected thus necessitate new longer range ballistic missile . Are you even reading?

 

[Ashwin]

I said ssbn ( nuke subs ) are undetectable in open ocean read my post again. You are only proving your that your comprehensive skills are not upto task.

And i said SSKs are even harder to detect in the open sea.

They may weight on our other decision. With regards to our ssbn program there is no change in policy. Again you are linking two separate issues same as the article. Again not comprehending the difference in rationale of our ssbn program.

Where did i say they changed policy on SSBN kido?

Russian have been making submarine long before Chinese . If you believe Chinese design/ executions is better than Russian subs the onus of proof lies on you. To any naval wather it has been obvious where Chinese stand vis a vis russians.

Where did i compare russian and Chinese subs genius? I was talking about a particular class of russian sub (Lada).

 

[Indianhawk]

And i said SSKs are even harder to detect in the open sea

Read the post above . If Pakistani ssk goes to open acean it needs new BM with longer range and weight which might not even fit on ssk. Beating the whole purpose.

Where did i say they changed policy on SSBN kido?

Granpa that's why i called the article bullshit in first place. Why are you even debating if you agree that our ssbn policy is intact. Old age getting to you?

Where did i compare russian and Chinese subs genius? I was talking about a particular class of russian sub (Lada).

My post that you quoted was saying Chinese design are inferior to Russians you doutbted it ! Why?

 

[Ashwin]

Read the post above . If Pakistani ask goes to open acean it needs new BM with longer range and weight which might not even fit on ssk. Beating the whole purpose.

Why ? Do you think nuke cant fit in cruise missile? What up with you and weight?

Granpa that's why called the article bullshit in first place. Why are you even debating if you agree that our ssbn policy is intact. Old age getting to you?

Learn basic English starting with what dilemma means. Calling people BS because you couldn't comprehend basic concepts is a mark of genius.

My post that you quoted was saying Chinese design are inferior to Russians you doutbted it ! Why?

I didn't All I said was not to make blanket statements. I didnt compare with Russians. Then you said these are 'facts'. Obviously, you have your own definition of 'facts'.

 

[Indianhawk]

I'm tired of this . Just answer this even if India didn't pursue second strike would Pakistan also never pursue it.

Pakistans pursuit of second strike is independent of Indian pursuit of second strike. If you can't comprehend that I can't force you to see the logic of it.

You were the first who was giving definition of ssb and now you are saying Pakistan will go for cruise missile as deterrent. I don't know how seriously to take it.

I am now going to sleep it is futile to debate you. You have even discarded all the ssk range estimate that were given by another poster because they don't suit your views . You are slandering my posts on other threads because you can't handle debate here.

Sigh! Have your victory sir. I won't debate with you any longer.

 

[Ashwin]

I'm tired of this . Just answer this even if India didn't pursue second strike would Pakistan also never pursue it.

Pakistans pursuit of second strike is independent of Indian pursuit of second strike. If you can't comprehend that I can't force you to see the logic of it.

You were the first who was giving definition of ssb and now you are saying Pakistan will go for cruise missile as deterrent. I don't know how seriously to take it.

I am now going to sleep it is futile to debate you. You have even discarded all the ssk range estimate that were given by another poster because they don't suit your views . You are slandering my posts on other threads because you can't handle debate here.

Sigh! Have your victory sir. I won't debate with you any longer.

All answered but you keep skipping it and coming back to it. Let me try again.

On the question of pakistani second strike, you first point was that pakistan bankrupt itself by catching up. There you have the answer. It is always catching up with any means to strike a balance. Thus increasing risk for everyone involved. (ie, dilemma)

The article didn't say pakistani SSB is in direct response to indian SSBN but it is a response to an evergrowing culmination of Indian capabilities to 'pre-emptive' strike on pakistani counterforce targets. For example Rafale and Brahmos give more strike capability while activation of Indian BMD and S400 purchase gives possible defense against pakistani land-based BM strikes. This gives indian policymakers room to call a possible strike. This tilts the balance. Thus they are developing sea-based deterrent which is the most promising one because of their narrow land geography.

On survivability and capability of SSKs, (post #49)

On a scenario of Indian preemptive strike against Pakistani counterforce targets, the mere existence of few SSBs in waters is good enough deterrence.

Subsea based is the best kind of deterrence because its very hard to detect and track.

As i replied to random, Range estimates are dependent on role. SSB/SSBN's job is to hide and wait for orders nothing else. They don't even have to move most of the time. So i didnt discard it. (If you have a counter-argument then give it, why depend on a third person)

No need to take calling out on other thread personally. I merely pointed out your double standard on how you are making everything here simplistic yet got annoyed by the same there.

 

[Ymir]

and their SAMs are not good at BMD.

What??? PAC-3 has more kills against ballistic missiles than any other BMD system. When's the last time a Russian SAM even shot down the right aircraft operationally, let alone a ballistic missile?

Subsea based is the best kind of deterrence because its very hard to detect and track.

Truth. Although rail based systems are also rather hard to locate. However... Russia actually practices deterrence-at-port, forgoing sea patrols on occasion.

Pakistan could theoretically do the same, its just not quite the same when their principle adversary is right next door. My point is that there are options that don't require large at sea patrols or deterrents. Rail garrisons, underground bunkers, large caliber guns, at-port delivery, diffused basing. Lots of options that don't require expensive SSBs or SSBNs.