Project 75 India Diesel-electric Submarine Programs (SSK) : Updates and Discussions
- Thread starter Himanshu
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Scorpene is sunk cost. If it's not sufficient then we need to work with the French on improving the platform. We're already working to upgrade it with Fuel Cell AIP which is already a superior solution to the Stirling AIPs used by Pakistan & China.
We'll no doubt be incorporating LIBs as well at some point in the future. We're also working on replacing the MAN diesels with Rolls-Royce MTU 4000s which means more power on tap for the sensors as well.
We can realistically move towards a SMX 3.0-like platform for the next batch if we want (after the +3 are done).
The additional cost & risk of a new platform is not worth it if it's only gonna come at around the same time as our SSNs.
No, because we already have a production line for them. MDL already knows how to build them & the indigenous supply chain is already established & running hot.
It took over a decade for NG (then DCNS) to identify Indian suppliers capable of doing the job & imparting know-how and ToT.
If we go with a new design now, we'll need to start that process afresh because NG certification =/= TKMS or Navantia certification.
It is in fact the lowest risk & lowest cost option. Not just from a technical standpoint but also a geopolitical standpoint.
You cannot count on Germans or Spanish - they have no resident interests in the INDOPAC that ties them down to reality, which means they'll be sanctioning us at the drop of hat. Their foreign policies are not rational.
Spain denies docking nod to ship with explosives headed to Israel from India
Spain has been one of Europe’s most critical voices about Israel’s Gaza offensive and is working to rally other European capitals behind the idea of recognising a Palestinian state.
indianexpress.com
Not to mention heavy usage of US equipment on S80+, we'll be opening ourselves up to all kinds of new operational risks in the subsurface arm.
France has already agreed to integrate DRDO AIP on Scorpene hull so that's not a problem.
There will be if we go for additional Scorpenes.
The supply chain has been figured out & experience has been built up. New boats will take much less time to build compared to the first 6. And the more we build, the faster we can build them out.
That's the problem: there IS no risk-free import - unless we're ready to go G2G with Germany as it's a single-vendor situation. But we aren't gonna do that, so now only option is to wait for the Spanish to try & alleviate whatever risks their solution is currently plagued with.
But our own AIP would also be maturing in the same timeframe so by the time Navantia is ready (don't know when that will be), the scenario might be very different and we'll need to reassess what we want & how we want it.
Because if we have a working domestic AIP on hand, there's no way we'll be signing up to import a comparable one. AIP might even get added to negative import list by that point. The competition will then shift to whoever is willing to incorporate our module into their design for the lowest cost - as it would be a no-brainer to want your entire SSK fleet to have a common AIP module.
Scorpene is sunk cost. If it's not sufficient then we need to work with the French on improving the platform. We're already working to upgrade it with Fuel Cell AIP which is already a superior solution to the Stirling AIPs used by Pakistan & China.
We'll no doubt be incorporating LIBs as well at some point in the future. We're also working on replacing the MAN diesels with Rolls-Royce MTU 4000s which means more power on tap for the sensors as well.
We can realistically move towards a SMX 3.0-like platform for the next batch if we want (after the +3 are done).
The additional cost & risk of a new platform is not worth it if it's only gonna come at around the same time as our SSNs.
No, because we already have a production line for them. MDL already knows how to build them & the indigenous supply chain is already established & running hot.
It took over a decade for NG (then DCNS) to identify Indian suppliers capable of doing the job & imparting know-how and ToT.
If we go with a new design now, we'll need to start that process afresh because NG certification =/= TKMS or Navantia certification.
It is in fact the lowest risk & lowest cost option. Not just from a technical standpoint but also a geopolitical standpoint.
You cannot count on Germans or Spanish - they have no resident interests in the INDOPAC that ties them down to reality, which means they'll be sanctioning us at the drop of hat. Their foreign policies are not rational.
Spain denies docking nod to ship with explosives headed to Israel from India
Spain has been one of Europe’s most critical voices about Israel’s Gaza offensive and is working to rally other European capitals behind the idea of recognising a Palestinian state.
Not to mention heavy usage of US equipment on S80+, we'll be opening ourselves up to all kinds of new operational risks in the subsurface arm.
France has already agreed to integrate DRDO AIP on Scorpene hull so that's not a problem.
There will be if we go for additional Scorpenes.
The supply chain has been figured out & experience has been built up. New boats will take much less time to build compared to the first 6. And the more we build, the faster we can build them out.
That's the problem: there IS no risk-free import - unless we're ready to go G2G with Germany as it's a single-vendor situation. But we aren't gonna do that, so now only option is to wait for the Spanish to try & alleviate whatever risks their solution is currently plagued with.
But our own AIP would also be maturing in the same timeframe so by the time Navantia is ready (don't know when that will be), the scenario might be very different and we'll need to reassess what we want & how we want it.
Because if we have a working domestic AIP on hand, there's no way we'll be signing up to import a comparable one. AIP might even get added to negative import list by that point. The competition will then shift to whoever is willing to incorporate our module into their design for the lowest cost - as it would be a no-brainer to want your entire SSK fleet to have a common AIP module.
Honestly, the best solution would be 3 Advanced Kilos to join while we start work on Scorpene+. Evolutionary by going in for Lithium Ion and a bigger beam. This would mean the Scorpene becomes our LCA. Test out the latest tech in batches, while integrating them into the SSN, SSBN and Project 76. This 75I sometimes I feel, is just to keep some babus occupied and push paperwork with international holidays.
If that's on offer, we will take it.
It will be a separate process though. We are in the market for 1-2 SSNs, supplied by the OEM. Both are supposed to be Akula leases, so you are free to jump in for one or both deals.
Interestingly, both Yasen-M and Barracuda are ending production within the same time frame. If that culminates into a production deal, then nothing like it.
We want to avoid this. We want readymade systems.
S-80 Plus is such a submarine anyway.
It's irrelevant. MDL chose TKMS 'cause the sub is potentially more advanced, and has a greater likelihood of getting the T1 status.
And Navantia's S-80 Plus is basically an enlarged Scorpene. So imagine that... MDL has experience building Scorpenes but decided to go for a competitor. The S-80 was designed by the French, the export designation is Scorpene.
HAL too knows how to build the MKI, but would prefer Boeing as a partner over UAC's Su-35. The goal is to win after all. Poor Tata.
It is in fact the lowest risk & lowest cost option. Not just from a technical standpoint but also a geopolitical standpoint.
You cannot count on Germans or Spanish - they have no resident interests in the INDOPAC that ties them down to reality, which means they'll be sanctioning us at the drop of hat. Their foreign policies are not rational.
Spain denies docking nod to ship with explosives headed to Israel from India
Spain has been one of Europe’s most critical voices about Israel’s Gaza offensive and is working to rally other European capitals behind the idea of recognising a Palestinian state.
Not to mention heavy usage of US equipment on S80+, we'll be opening ourselves up to all kinds of new operational risks in the subsurface arm.
There is political risk with non-Russian/French options, but the plan is to indigenize quite a bit of the P75I.
As for Navantia, the Americans won't sell us their stuff anyway, and we can opt for Indian and French stuff as well. Navantia is offering heavy customization.
What does the IN want on P75I? DRDO's AIP or a foreign AIP? We gotta go by what the IN wants.
Why is there such a large focus on a foreign system? Because it's not just the technology itself, it's also about the production and maintenance processes, the GUI and MMI, and all the manufacturer and operator experiences that can be transferred to a new operator that has absolutely no experience with AIP.
If the IN is fine with DRDO's AIP, then a whole host of contenders can come back into the competition. But the tender will need to restart. I find that quite unlikely.
It's the same as P75I, 7-10 years. The only thing experience somewhat ensures is the schedule won't go beyond 7-10 years, which is not guaranteed either.
If the IN says they are willing to wait for Spain to prepare, then I don't think it's going to take long.
Personally I think Navantia will win L1, although TKMS will get T1.
The S-80 Plus is exactly that, as explained before.
It's not though. It's a critical requirement, like Rafale. We are still 5-10 years away from making our own stuff reliably. AMCA timeline here as well.
Our 6 Barracudas are going to cost us 9 billion euros, that's 1.5 billion per Barracuda. How much do you want and where do we sign?
Without ToT, 1 or 2. With ToT, 4 to 6. India is already talking with France for P-75A. And the IN has made no secret of wanting to import SSNs.
India's top priority is still the SSBN program, a new class. And they have only cleared 3 submarines for the SSN program, so there's a lot of room for growth.
Does it not look to you that prelim 3 subs is sort of mk1 which will later get scaled up to desired standard? Also the infra coming up suggests the project is at a better stage compared to the foreign procurement drama ?
The Indian problem is not only quality (SSN >> SSK) but also quantity.
A SSN cost, to purchase and operate, is so higher (than SSK) that a mix is probably needed.
So SSK for costal operations, and SSN for deep blue.
IN has not the USN budget !
The timelines don't interfere with each other. Importing 1 or 2 Barracuda or Yasen M over the next 2 years would mean we will get the subs before 2035, the production line is already in an advanced stage. Our first sub will take a few more years after that.
There's the capability question too. The Yasen M is a much bigger sub than what we have planned to build. Our sub's gonna be the same size as the Barracuda, but there's proven capabilities, maturity and all that.
Same story as MRFA. The imports are gonna fit in like Rafale, and our SSN is similar to AMCA.
Can't dismiss problems either, it's our first attempt. In case our first sub fails, then we won't have a proper SSN fleet until the 2050s, so the imports will significantly de-risk our own program.
The IN's first option was importing SSNs. Pre-war Russia cited international obligations in such transfers. The US flatly denied such transfers. No idea about the French. I won't be surprised if the British offer the Australian one, especially if the Russians offer one post war. And I'm hoping the French jump in too.
SSNs are actually cheaper to operate. No primary diesel cost, only reserve.
We don't want 66 SSNs. Just 6.
May be.... just ..... may be.... go back and look at the terms and see what made them so stupid in the first place? Why is it that purchasing ready to use subs is so hard for IN? Why did South Korea skip? Why did Japan never join?
I am partial towards south korean offering. Its large and fuel cell based AIP. Just buy them with favourable conditions and call it a day? Or may be offer 20% more $$$? Or may be... just buy a larger number of subs?
What kind of backarse ward policy is to wait for spain to make new AIP? Since DRDO is already in the process of certifying its AIP via Naval Group, isn't P-75(I) meant to derisk our AIP program? Just buy god damned established Fuel cell based sub from Germans or South Koreans and be done with it!
I am partial towards south korean offering. Its large and fuel cell based AIP. Just buy them with favourable conditions and call it a day? Or may be offer 20% more $$$? Or may be... just buy a larger number of subs?
What kind of backarse ward policy is to wait for spain to make new AIP? Since DRDO is already in the process of certifying its AIP via Naval Group, isn't P-75(I) meant to derisk our AIP program? Just buy god damned established Fuel cell based sub from Germans or South Koreans and be done with it!
The efficiency of sterling is also affected by the diving depth.
Although in Arabian sea this won't be much of a problem, but in general fuel cell equipped SSKs will do better than sterling engines.
The present Scorpene can use all 6 of its Torpedo Tubes to fire all kinds of weapons compared to 2 Torpedo Tubes on Kilo which can fire the Klub.
I will say again. Scorpene is Rafale and Kilo is Mig23/27 class.
More like ~12 if we want 2 CBGs on station, an escort for our ssbns and a couple roaming around in SCS and IOR....
At some point, we need to make something out of sunk cost.
With SSNs becoming a viable high-end option, a reassessment of the sub plan is due, simple as that. In all likelihood, we aren't gonna go ahead with P75I until & unless that happens.
We already indigenized most of Scorpene. Would be a waste of billions of dollars and nearly two decades of time if we don't build at least another 6-9 upgraded versions of those (including FC-AIP, LIB and maybe even a VLS module plug-in like the Korean SSKs).
Something tells me, that's what we'll eventually end up doing. We'll see...the track record of P75I means there's no reason to assume it'll happen until it does.
So basically nothing except the hull is going to be off-the-shelf. Our own CMS & probably (given the timeline) our own AIP. I just don't see this as viable. 15 years back, maybe. But certainly not now.
I think it's more beneficial to just go for a fully indigenous SSK program (P76) which would essentially be our own enlarged Scorpene with full IP control that would deliver in next decade. And just keep building Scorpenes until then.
Like I said, the focus on foreign system is a 16-year old assessment. Right now it depends on how soon the Spanish can get theirs ready. If they take too long, the whole thing becomes unviable.
The entire 75I was based on the premise that there are ready-to-buy solutions to choose from. That is now clearly not the case & there's gonna be a lot of waiting & uncertainty involved in this as well*
*unless we go G2G.
Not possible for it to be same as 75I.
Tejas Mk-1A can roll off the same hot production line we have for Mk-1. But the Mk-2 can't. It'll need all new infrastructure & jigs. Same for Scorpene & 75I.
Track record says Navy is in no hurry whatsoever.
Cuz if you ask me, Navy itself doesn't yet know if they should be buying 75I in its current form. But the plan drawn in 90s requires them to pursue a procurement effort until otherwise told, so they'll keep the RFP up.
But an actual deal? Probably not.
That's why the high-low mix.
SSNs on high-end, SSKs on low-end.
Korea backed out 'cause of CHINAAAAAAAAA!!!!! Some say it's 'cause of ToT requirements, but of course that's BS 'cause they had agreed to it already. And we know Sweden backed citing ToT even before the competition began.
Japan has to change its constitution. They have made an exception for GCAP, 'cause of other countries. But that's on the terms that they will withdraw support in case the importer goes to war for any reason. Of course, the other partners can support the importer; UK and Italy.
We gotta wait for Spain to avoid a single vendor situation. There's no one else left.
??? big doubt.
Maybe the ones using highly enriched uranium (only one load for the whole life of the sub), but a replacement of the uranium load for low enrichied one is long, complex so costly.
If we know the price of diesel liter, what about low or higly enriched uranium ?
Endurance is better and the technologies used are more recent on Kilos.
Of course, but that's long term, and by the time we get 6, we will become as rich as the US is.
If the Barracuda is on offer, I'd like to see the IN go for it over the P75I. Then AIP will lose its importance. We can skip on P76 as well, just build 12 of each class of SSNs on 2 lines. We get SSNs, France gets to wave its middle finger at AUKUS.
But the end question is, will France even offer us the Barracuda class SSN and not the Shortfin Barracuda which was recently selected by the Netherlands?
It's an open secret that Naval Group did not fulfill it's ToT commitments that were agreed upon when the original P75 deal was signed. The boats that rolled out of MDL are barely 50% indigenous.