PAK-FA / Sukhoi Su-57 - Updates and Discussions

Sathya said:
Only way we can increase fighter count before 2027-28 time frame @_Anonymous_ mentions is by building more Su 30..
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MKI in it's present shape will be good enough to go up against PAF but only barely.
Sathya said:
But UPG program timeline is 7 years .
Virupaksa may not be ready for integration in 2-3 years.
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That's the crux of the problem. If we're getting the 12 replacement MKIs what shape are we getting them in ? I was given to understand it'd be in the Super Sukhoi configuration . If that's the case how come the entire upgrade program is taking up to 2032 to fructify when we're scheduled to receive these 12 MKIs in a couple of years ?
Sathya said:
Lca mk1A going at accelerated pace is limited by engines availability. So it's already maxed out.

4 squads of Mk1A + 2 squads of Su 30 ( if signed) is the max we can get by 2028 .
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We'd be lucky to get the first tranche of Mk-1a by 2030. And 12 nos MKI . Make no mistake about that . Plus 26 Rafale M. Anything additional is a bonus.

"We'd fight with what we have " Gen V.P.Malik (1999)

Please sear that phrase into you're consciousness for we're doing everything in our power to live up to this maxim once again & will keep repeating it for we're not a serious country.
Sathya said:
Post that post 2028 will be
Second tranche of Mk1A
Su 30 UPG
Marine Rafale.
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_Anonymous_ said:
MKI in it's present shape will be good enough to go up against PAF but only barely.

That's the crux of the problem. If we're getting the 12 replacement MKIs what shape are we getting them in ? I was given to understand it'd be in the Super Sukhoi configuration . If that's the case how come the entire upgrade program is taking up to 2032 to fructify when we're scheduled to receive these 12 MKIs in a couple of years ?

We'd be lucky to get the first tranche of Mk-1a by 2030. And 12 nos MKI . Make no mistake about that . Plus 26 Rafale M. Anything additional is a bonus.

"We'd fight with what we have " Gen V.P.Malik (1999)

Please sear that phrase into you're consciousness for we're doing everything in our power to live up to this maxim once again & will keep repeating it for we're not a serious country.
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_Anonymous_ said:
If that's the case how come the entire upgrade program is taking up to 2032 to fructify when we're scheduled to receive these 12 MKIs in a couple of years ?
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Those 12 won't come with full super sukhoi upgrades in late 2020s when theyvare to be delivered, especially the main Virupaksha radar will be integrated later, around ~2030.
 
babablacksheep said:
Those 12 won't come with full super sukhoi upgrades in late 2020s when theyvare to be delivered, especially the main Virupaksha radar will be integrated later, around ~2030.
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Yes looks like that which means even if we add another 50-60 MKI proposed to be mfgd we're only adding numbers without doing anything about their capabilities.

Then again with a question mark on the capabilities of the Rafales in its present form as we've received them , which FA of ours is capable of going up against the J-20 ? That's the million dollar question.

This move of the proposed induction of 40-50 MKIs solves only part of the problem. The problem with the IAF is whatever solution they can think of is sub optimal from the perspective of us going up against China around the 2030 timeframe.

Either the FAs they want comes with a lot of strings attached , therefore unattainable besides being available post 2030 ( F-35 ) or don't live up to the hype in its present form with the upgrades to address our misgivings only available in the next decade ( Rafale - C F5 model ) besides being scheduled for delivery early next decade in the best case scenario be it thru imports or MII or simply not worth the effort viz Eurofighter or the Gripen E wherein case of the former there are too many actors involved with whom we have trust issues while in the latter we're getting an equivalent in a few years.

Another aspect about the Rafale is the numbers we're getting them in & the source codes which will also depend to a large extent on the numbers we're getting them in. Then there's the Su-57 which is an unknown entity. Even if we procure limited nos as imports with a MII component there's no guarantee we'd receive the imports by 2030 given the current state of Russian industry courtesy the sanctions. All this is assuming it meets our requirements & is not some sort of a compromise.

Another point if both the Rafale or the Su-57 involves minor or major MKI zation that's going to be a huge undertaking which'd take a decade at least & given the mentality of this government may well cannibalise our resources both manpower & money for our indigenous programs.

It's one unholy mess !!
 
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Rajput Lion said:
There are plans to increase new MKI order size from just 12 to 60-80. Let's wait for more details as both India and Russia are involved with heavy and serious discussions regarding future of Indian air power.

Also, Russians have offered us both PAK-DA stealth bomber and PAK-DP(Mig-41) 6th gen interceptor as well;) @randomradio
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We need mki replacement from 2035 i guess, it easy to make MKI EX variant with new engine. Provided with enough electical output to power up next gen avionics. Design with an aesa radar with jamming capabilities & desi eodas in it.

We straight away deny PAK DA, it will be another fgfa trap. We also have ahome program for bomber, if reports are true.

Rather if its in really on table, go for Mig 41. Im still saying that 2019 public embarrassing moment could have avoided if we had Mig31, and beliving that op sindoor also goes smoothly with mig31. That lost opportunity must be undone with mig41,a super interceptor to target PAF & chinese force multipliers on the first minute of war.
 
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Hydra said:
We need mki replacement from 2035 i guess, it easy to make MKI EX variant with new engine. Provided with enough electical output to power up next gen avionics. Design with an aesa radar with jamming capabilities & desi eodas in it.

We straight away deny PAK DA, it will be another fgfa trap. We also have ahome program for bomber, if reports are true.

Rather if its in really on table, go for Mig 41. Im still saying that 2019 public embarrassing moment could have avoided if we had Mig31, and beliving that op sindoor also goes smoothly with mig31. That lost opportunity must be undone with mig41,a super interceptor to target PAF & chinese force multipliers on the first minute of war.
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mate, the mig 41 is more of a paper plane than the su75 LMAO. At least the su75 looks like it will get a prototype by next year and might even fly by the end of that year. the mig 41 is a late 2030s product meant to be 5.5 gen or even low end 6th gen. it not gonna come before the 2040s lol.
 
Rajput Lion said:
Now go ahead and say that there is nothing like full tech-transfer except in fanboy fallacy, lol;)
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listen, i understand india really needs a fifth gen fighter but the amount of relations we would damage if we bought the su57 in big numbers while the ukraine war is going on right now is so fking high we would permanently stall our future growth. its simply better to bite the bullet or even buy the f35 compared to the su57 because if we buy the f35 we could simply buy a shit ton of russian products to show them that we still care but if we buy the su57 it doesnt matter at all especially since our economy is far more connected to the west compared to russia.
The plane doesnt even matter in the slightest.
This wil affect things like our semicon industry which relies completely on ASML. Its not worth it.
 
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Rajput Lion said:
Now go ahead and say that there is nothing like full tech-transfer except in fanboy fallacy, lol;)
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Know how vs know why. Article says gradual localisation of license production to deep localisation and possible co-evolution through software upgrades and so on. Just sound bites more than anything. It's only normal that things will be hyped up to generate interest among everyone for the planned visit of President Putin.
Let's take it with a pinch of salt. Even a MoU or LoI haven't been signed let alone negotiation process where the real terms and conditions be unveiled.

And most importantly.. very much depends on what Russia is offering that India can't develop on its own by the time Su-57 is envisioned to become a force in IAF. Things are never as rosy as they seem ( neither are they low as some propogates)

I am not gonna even talk about HAL and it's competency and efficiency to handle the program and actually deliver on it.

P.S. If know-why along with Know how happens in full ( engine + material science), by perhaps a seperate JV for research & Development, not manufacturing.. then sure, buy as many as you want.
 
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Rajput Lion said:
Now go ahead and say that there is nothing like full tech-transfer except in fanboy fallacy, lol;)
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Its exactly that. Full tech transfer here means licence production. You said IP sharing of aircraft and engine. Thats not even fanboy more like delusional.

Expecting a nation like Russia to share their crown jewel IP is just too much.
 
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Guys I know that I have said a lot, but wait for more time you'll see that all my saying here like local manufactiring of 140+ jets, 2-seater FGFA revival with us owning full IP of jet along with engine, initial order of 60-80 single-seat variant and other stuff will come true one by one, like always;)

Just have some patience and watch this space;)
 
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Rajput Lion said:
Guys I know that I have said a lot, but wait for more time you'll see that all my saying here like local manufactiring of 140+ jets, 2-seater FGFA revival with us owning full IP of jet along with engine, initial order of 60-80 single-seat variant and other stuff will come true one by one, like always;)

Just have some patience and watch this space;)
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they are not going to sell the IP lol, you will get the tech for the plane and tech for the engine at most but they will hold full rights over the IP in itself. India will not manufacture the su57 for players abroad. the engine IP will never ever come. We might even get 100% local production of the engine and jet but we will have to pay the licensing fee and cannot share the tech anywhere
please stop thinking its going to happen because you will be dissapointed.

the only IP sharing will be the franco indian engine and thats cause we are paying fing 8 billion for it for both the development and the IP.
 
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@Rajput Lion welp it looks like ukraine is going to run out of money by early 2026 at the most optimistic projection(for ukraine). IF these reports are indeed true and IF the reports about a hasty peace deal being prepped up for russia are also true then we might actually see an end to this war by early 2026. THEN ' *censored*'. We might actually be able to go for the serially produced su57 which would fundamentally change things for India. europe and the US can be convinced using large defence collabs and orders(unlike the current situation).

The next 4 months are going to be the most interesting 4 months in the last 3 years.


im very confident in the ukraine not having enough money report since its sorta verified by the ukranians themsleves and the sheer amount of stuff going on in the EU regarding russian assets(primarily in the form of bonds) stored by them. i think it was about 180 billion dollars worth. If EU touches the stuff which are stored in belgium that would mean the death for belgiums financial security and every person with the bonds would immediatly cash out(china, india. the middle east i.e all the big players). It would also mean the death for EUs financial security since that would mean the EU can bascically steal from you if you are against them in any relatively obscure way(ukraine is not counted as a direct way to the EU since ukraine is not part of the EU and is simply supported by it). *censored* it really changes soo much.

obviously we still wont get the IP lol but we will get full TOT for manufacturing here. all of this is still subject to changes on ground. and ofc how the pakistan situation develops. If it becomes critical india will get the su57 regardless of any pressure but i doubt it will ever get critical(full blown war) with pakistan.
 
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