MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions
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By now I think it's safe to admit that while our security management won't admit to it , it's clear that the Rafale is not the silver bullet to tackle the J-20 + J-16 combination.
Like the rest of the world we underestimated the progress the Chinese'd make in their various aerospace programs & overestimated the French product.
To make matters worse , the definitive F5 program has been delayed from the end of this decade to somewhere next decade. Then again how effective would this upgrade be against the J-20 then is unknown for the latter would have their own upgrade programs.
Said this before & tired of repeating myself but the IAF is cooking in its own juices. Apart from GoI & MoD bungling the IAF itself has acted like a spoilt child when it came to supporting indigenous initiatives insisting on imports.
Well long story short , here they are , caught up in a perfect storm . Platforms from the US can't be got for obvious reasons , platforms such as the Eurofighter comes with its own baggage whereas the Gripen does nothing to boost our capabilities.
That leaves us with precious little options like the French & the Russians of which the latter has an unknown , untried & untested product in the Su-57.
Then of course there's the induction time line to be taken into account . However the way North & South Block seems to be moving you'd hardly get the impression we're preparing for an imminent war.
They're just going about their affairs like it's BAU - Biz As Usual which makes one wonder which conflict are they getting these platforms for & when in their estimation would this conflict materialise for as I've pointed out before we can take on Paxtan any time .
Today tomorrow & day after irrespective they get 2 more squadrons of J-20 & 4 squadrons of J-35 with next to no foreign platforms being inducted in the IAF . Just that our attrition rate would be higher.
So what or whom exactly are our dhotis , babooodumb & uniforms planning for & what exactly is the timeline they're expecting this to happen in ?
Post Op Sindoor, there seems to have been a re-evaluation of many ongoing/planned procurements and GoI may have lost appetite for 114 Rafale (just like Kalvari B2 SSK.) Only items that have proved themselves in combat are now on the shopping list like S-400.
In any case, it's not reasonable to expect DA to transfer >60% of Rafale tech and GoI knows it full well. It is still trying to drive a hard bargain.
The endgame could be GoI buying a small number of both Rafale and Su-57 off the shelf and diverting the rest of the money to Tejas mk2 and AMCA. In the interim, it will likely invest in Sudarshan Chakra/Kusha/SBS-3/hypersonics to back up the IAF fighter fleet.
I don't know why people keep comparing Spice and Hammers. Hammers are much more versatile munitions and can be employed for multiple different mission profiles. Spice are very much one dimensional in comparison. We are already developing TARA REK kit so it makes no sense to integrate spice in rafales.
I agree with this decision even if I don't think this would be the final outcome. GoI along with MoD / IAF wants to kill too many birds with one stone .
They want the best of what's available , with full ToT to be MII at the cheapest prices possible without taking into account the timelines it is required in .
Result they'd come up with some hotchpotch solution which will not provide a comprehensive solution to the problem at hand & further complicate matters.
I'd written earlier we can see a 1980s redux where we went in for MiG-29s as well as the Mirage 2000 . Of course we also went in for the MiG-23 & the MiG-27 both extremely problematic products.
I'm venturing that's exactly what'd happen this time around . Some Su-57 & some Rafales both of which will be fully operational in the IAF by the mid 2030s. In effect we'd be shutting the door after the horse has bolted.
A good deal of our neither here nor there approach has also got to do with the fact that we just refuse to spend more money or allocate more towards CAPEX.
Having a Paxtan centric approach is not merely a handicap then it's part of our tunnel vision deeply engrained in the DNA of our security establishment. Also helps penny pinching.
Meanwhile MahaManav has gone on his yearly showboating expedition on Diwali this time on INS Vikramaditya claiming he slept early when he was on board the ship which was uncharacteristic for he doesn't hit the bed early but this was an exception. He did so for he felt completely safe.
That's classic baniyagiri . When you've nothing much to offer , all you can do is sugar coat your words & MahaManav has been doing that since 2014 .
DA may be amenable to this after lengthy negotiations but whether it'd be to the satisfaction of the powers that be here is difficult to say.
In any case they'd ask for an arm & a leg whereas our establishment are penny pinchers also penny wise & pound foolish.
For this entire process takes time , a luxury at the moment which we're running out of rapidly.
I have this rather perverse notion he'd be at the helm of affairs when the balloon goes up in the 2030s. Live long enough & you see a hero turn to a villain.
Chacha discovered that in 1962. Bania here will face the same fate 7 decades later. The more things change the more it remains the same.
Yes . It looks likely. Which also means that both programs will be further delayed & induction would also be piece meal. After all we've a reputation to live upto.
Explains reports we're going in for another 2-5 regiments of the S 400 perhaps with a few components of the S 500 as well . Also reports of us seeking local mfg here. Remains to be seen if Russia can execute timely orders. Pending orders of the S 400 do not inspire confidence.
Which brings us to the conclusion none of the rest are arriving before 2030 with the exception of the SBS . That too how effective would it be is another matter.
I feel bad for our jawans on the LAC. They'd be expected to give another Herculean performance whereas the dhotis & our BA in English Literature with Hons Babooodumb will be resting their backsides in Delhi along with a significant section of our uniforms except a few who'd be put there with their men giving it their all .
This is another Chronicle of A Death Foretold in the making. The more I think of it , the more sick in the stomach I get.
Given the alacrity with which MoD has decided to drop the Kalvari B2 prog, there is no saying what shape MRFA could eventually take. Iirc, according to Snehesh Alex Philip (of the Print), MoD felt MRFA would be enough to mollify the French after canceling the imminent sub deal.
So, more Rafale may indeed be coming, (contingent on source code xfr from France). But expect some push back from the French, Rafale is selling like hot cakes right now and DA will try and hold on to core IP as much as possible.
Also, DA had made it clear they'd need a minimum order of 100 units for a local production line to be viable. That means GoI would need to order at least 74 more birds (the rest made up by the INs 26 MRCBF) which would still fall short of the IAFs original requirement for 126.
In any case, the GoI will likely split the order into multiple tranches (as advocated years ago by the late CDS Gen. Bipin Rawat). The sticker price of ~$30bn would otherwise be too much for MoF + GoI could be playing right into the opposition's narrative of suit boot ki sarkar.
I'd hoped GoI would lean on the IAF to finalize MKI UPG in the aftermath of Op Sindoor but that hasn't happened yet. Putin's India visit would've been the perfect backdrop for signing the UPG deal.
As things stand, Su-57 is apparently still in the early stages of negotiation. Other than spares for Russian-origin gear and additional S-400 rounds, I hope we don't get suckered into buying the 3× used Kilos with Kalibr SLCM Russia's been offering.
Is it just me that's happy with this development.
If anyone has seen my pov.. I was always against both rafale and Su-57 imports. And divert all money into AMCA.
And while it matures, invest funds into IADS, networking, AWACS, UAVs, Unameed ground vehicle, UXLV etc.. AI, Radars .. the ecosystem, the foundation on which any 5th gen+ FA can truly flourish.
And it also helps in our posture. Indians are scaredy bunch ( babus), but give them protection, and they will turn into rowdy like none other. Give the country Sudarshan Chakra as envisioned.. to keep cities( offices & houses of babus/dhotis) safe and behold.. you might truly get free hand from dhotis to finish the menace of... Well you know.
But ofcourse... That's still an aspiration/my ideal pov. Who knows what's going on in the real negotiation meetings and what's the actual agenda. If it turns towards self reliance ( R&D led), even if delayed.. I am all for it.
And if babus at DRDO, DPSUs or pvt babus of TASL, KALYANI doesn't move beyond licensing.. let OPS 2.0 be the Black swan event that jolts them.
So, my only gripe is.. the intention is still not clear. If even 20 of that 30 goes to domestic R&D, and induction of systems.. as mentioned above, it's the best move. This stop gap measures is the thing which led to our big yet pathetic defense industry.
If deal goes thru.. you guys might be happy but all I see is burden for future gen.
If anyone has seen my pov.. I was always against both rafale and Su-57 imports. And divert all money into AMCA.
And while it matures, invest funds into IADS, networking, AWACS, UAVs, Unameed ground vehicle, UXLV etc.. AI, Radars .. the ecosystem, the foundation on which any 5th gen+ FA can truly flourish.
And it also helps in our posture. Indians are scaredy bunch ( babus), but give them protection, and they will turn into rowdy like none other. Give the country Sudarshan Chakra as envisioned.. to keep cities( offices & houses of babus/dhotis) safe and behold.. you might truly get free hand from dhotis to finish the menace of... Well you know.
But ofcourse... That's still an aspiration/my ideal pov. Who knows what's going on in the real negotiation meetings and what's the actual agenda. If it turns towards self reliance ( R&D led), even if delayed.. I am all for it.
And if babus at DRDO, DPSUs or pvt babus of TASL, KALYANI doesn't move beyond licensing.. let OPS 2.0 be the Black swan event that jolts them.
So, my only gripe is.. the intention is still not clear. If even 20 of that 30 goes to domestic R&D, and induction of systems.. as mentioned above, it's the best move. This stop gap measures is the thing which led to our big yet pathetic defense industry.
If deal goes thru.. you guys might be happy but all I see is burden for future gen.
If (big if imo) and when China comes for us, Leaderji will be long gone and be in some obscure ashram. This is his last term and China won't attack for a full scale high intensity war before 2030 and probably never. They will continue Galwan like clashes and arming their little attack dog
(provided this dog doesn't keep going closer and closer to Unkil ji).A high intensity war in barren terrain against a nuclear power is not something trivial even for a power like China. They will only do it after Taiwan. The only people who are cooked before 2030 is Taiwan. And perhaps the Phillipines.
We have tunnel vision against Pak because we fight actual wars with Pak while China sends soldiers with sticks and clubs. There may be a section of baboos who believe China intends to get India spending much more than what it can afford in defence and bog down our spending in other areas namely infrastructure and subsidies for manufacturing which in the long run will dent our industrial capability. Perhaps to a certain extent this is true, but that doesn't mean we get stingy. In my opinion, the only true path forward is like you said, limited Rafales and maybe even Su 57 import, and funneling the rest on Tejas Mk2 and AMCA. As one member astutely said, no matter how many abuses we hurl at our domestic industry in the end we have to rely on it only.
Buying sole silver bullets like Rafales ain't gonna cut it. We need more AWACS, better Gan based Aesa ground radars, Kusha SAMs, satellites and such. For airpower even a Tejas with Astra Mk2 linked with Netra AWACS and ground radars can be deadly against a J16. We need to push further networked systems. Instead of buying more silver bullets for $30 billion how about we spend some of that on EW, sigint planes, AWACS, BVRMs, CCAs etc. Rafales are needed but they are only useful if networked.
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A Tejas firing an Astra Mk2 which can be guided by our ground radars and AWACS will be far more deadly than a lone Rafale relying on its GAAS radar in a contested environment to fire a Meteor. Thats my opinion. The IAF must go all in on building a networked kill chain and then decide where and how imported items will fit in this network, not importing first and thinking later as we do so stupidly for decades.
Yes the future warfare is about how potent are network of networks. People are underplaying the role of AI in defense. ChatGPT is the BPL of AI tech currently developed. The real gem sits with the military of US, CHINA.
If India wants any chance to have greater role in future inevitable wars over the world, it needs artificial minds capable of managing these things. And systems built around them.
Honestly.. leave the radars. A CATS or Ghatak derivative purely for guidance purposes can go deep and detect threats even at the risk of being nuteralised.. given that it relays it back to MkII or SU-30MKI and guides our Gandiva missiles.
And it is feasible.
Small nano drones to identify ground units of adversary and sending SOS once discovered.. become a target itself to guide Surface to surface munitions.
Etc.. there's so much potential that can come out with a potent network of networks for military.
IACCS is a more of TD in large scheme of things.
Can't say whether the current impasse on the scorpene deal is part of our negotiation tactics or there's a genuine rethink coz of Project 75 I or the way Project 76 is shaping up , some or all of these.
Let's not forget the IN has no love lost for Naval Group. If they weren't in such a desperate situation , they wouldn't have bothered with exercising the option for an additional 3 nos .
However if MoD / IN is confident of signing an agreement with TKMS within a year give or take then I don't see the need for additional Scorpenes.
MRFA is different though. In addition to the 36 nos pending an order for which we've already erected facilities & paid for it , DA & the government of France will expect substantial orders for the Rafale. That's the reason they were forthcoming with the JV with GTRE . There has to be a quid pro quo & a substantial one at that.
I personally don't think the additional requirement of Scorpenes need be conflated with the MRFA requirement.
Or they may give in as I pointed out before after lengthy negotiations charging an arm & leg for it . At the end of the day will it be what the IAF desires & whether it'd be worth that price only time will tell .
As I've pointed out before in any case it's not going to come in whatever form we want them & in the numbers we want them before 2030. That bus has moved on .
If they're going in for a tranche based model a la MKI then there's not going to be a MII component . We'd be getting it directly thru imports.
Not a bad option if we go in for another 54 nos apart from the IN requirement with source codes. Would turn out to be cheaper than the MII we're planning.
In any case as I've also mentioned before discussing all these permutations & combinations making comparisons having intensive negotiations on these various points all require a lot of time , a luxury we don't have as of now.
I thought we're implementing the MKI in house. Where did Russia come into the picture ?
I don't think the Kilo class proposal will go anywhere. Hopefully we conclude an agreement for another 5-7 nos S 400 & S 500 with local mfg this December & get the entire component within 3-4 yrs.
That's the least we can do to shore up our IADS now that offensive arms & supporting platforms like ISR , Refuellers etc are nowhere in sight nor is there any news of our indigenous Rocket Force or the various components going into it.
This thinking is precisely what led to the 1962 disaster. We're improving though. Back then it was thought the Chinese would never attack us . Now the thinking is they'd restrict themselves only to the LAC.If (big if imo) and when China comes for us, Leaderji will be long gone and be in some obscure ashram. This is his last term and China won't attack for a full scale high intensity war before 2030 and probably never. They will continue Galwan like clashes and arming their little attack dog
There's literally no application of mind on what if they target our hinterland with the PLAAF & the PLARF if the war along the LAC isn't going their way ? What do we have by way of deterrence to prevent that eventuality ?! If the answer is N weapons , they have that too in much more qty & potency than us.
It's not trivial for them & neither will it be trivial for us although they'd get into it thinking it'd be a quick short intensive war .
I'd suggest you pay attention to the internal situation in China. Right now there's a battle royale going on for control of the CMC & the PLA between factions of the CCP.
Sometimes you set a fire outside to come to grips with the one in your home. What this means is China may get into a war they're not prepared for & when the going gets tough for them , they may well be tempted to unleash their arsenal on our hinterland if we've no substantial defence or conventional deterrence to exact a similar toll on their hinterland .
Maybe maybe not.
Our job is to be prepared for the worst while expecting the best . At the moment we seem to be expecting the best & preparing for the best case scenario. In any case it's the wrong approach.
The Chinks attacked in 62 due to very specific factors one of them being Nehrus forward policy which was basically him not wanting peace or war like the confused old man he was at the time. Now, the entire border area is alert with 200,000 Indian troops there permanently and watching with eyes wide open whatever the Chinese are doing. 2 different things. Not saying 100% they wont attack, but it being sudden and unexpected will likely not happen. They will try to probe using cyber and EW means and then attack if they are absolutely sure of a quick and decisive victory. Else the hinterland case you suggested is a worse case scenario as it means we will do the same by eventually ramping up production of Pralays and conventional Agni 1, 2 to hit their cities which will disrupt the entire world economy very badly.
Hence India must rapidly enhance it's asymmetric tools namely cyber warfare by finding more zero days and our EW capabilities to dissuade their asymmetric offense which will predate their hard offense.
The surprise element ended in 2020 with Galwan. The Chinese know this . They'd keep launching feints before they go in for the real thing. That's what they're doing across the Formosa Straits since the past few years. The objective is to tire out the opponent lulling them into a deep sense of complacency before striking.
They will commence their attack with a massive assault on our Cyber Systems trying their best to paralyse the entire country from banking to electricity to airports to transport , communication to you name it.
Are we prepared to withstand it leave aside initiate counter assaults of the very kind we're subject to ? Your guess is as good as mine.
That should be followed by a rocket & artillery barrage by PLARF & an air campaign by PLAAF . Boots on the ground will come much later.
What're you going to target with the Pralay ? Few dozen bases in Tibet & Xinjiang ? That's it . Their industrial & population centers are in the heartland nearly 3000 kms away from the LAC whereas Delhi is ~ 500 kms from the LAC.
We need 3-4000 kms BMs , Supersonic & Hypersonic CMs in the thousands to target their hinterland Where are they ?
That's why subs are the only true deterrent against Chinese, below the N threshold.
Not just a sub. But a very potent underwater doctrine backed by best of the systems we can have.
That's where an armada of SSBN, SSN, SSGN will play an important role. Some will be lost while penetrating the bastion. But that's inevitable in the worst case scenario we are talking about here.
Maritime blockade in straits is more of a posture and limited in deterrence capacity in today's world. But go into SCS, hit the ports... Even their industrial bases will suffer
As you know I have a friend who was a cyber defence guy at the American DoD, an Indian American dude. He said the critical Indian defence systems can withstand a Chinese cyber assault as they are mostly air gapped, the Chinese would need cracking ie people/spies on the ground with thumbdrives having malware and they would need to physically insert the thumbdrive on critical computers. Even then the computer systems are decentralized and spread out, so one part being infected does not necessarily mean a total collapse of the defence cyber establishment.
The GSAT series for military use have been significantly hardened with anti jamming and anti spoofing capability along with frequency hopping features. Unfortunately, the civilian GSAT series has 0 protection to spoofing or jamming whatsoever. Which means the Chinese can literally hijack the civilian GSAT signal feed and then insert propaganda videos into the TV sets of ordinary Indians.
The core feature of a Chinese assault will be the use of zero day vulnerabilities for cyberwarfare. The US has discovered the most number of zero days and are suspected to have 350-400 maybe even 500 of them, while China is estimated to have 250-300 in their cyber arsenal. India only has around 30-35 the cyber defence friend estimates.
Tldr, the Indian defence establishment is capable of largely withstanding a Chinese cyber assault on full-scale but the Indian civilian sector will be mauled very badly and the government will likely resort to shutting down internet and TV signals etc. Multiple Indian cities will completely lose power as Chinese have probably infiltrated malware deep into Indian energy grid and we will lose thousands of people who are on ventilators and other support systems if our CERT IN can't get power back on quickly.
As usual, being the reactionary people we are, you can expect a massive surge in government support for zero day vulnerability research, cyber defence and cyber offense capability AFTER this assault.
Btw, the chinks sending us to a sense of complacency where they can achieve another 62 is never going to happen and they know that.
Agree with your sentiment that India should build more missile capacity quickly, in fact that's the best thing India can do to counter the falling AF squadron strength. But things are not quite as hopeless. The goal is to deter misadventures, not annihilate the Chinese.
Brahmos/PinakaER are well within range of all their SW theater military infrastructure, critical logistical roads and airfields:
And that doesn't even take into account the terrain advantage that India has, and the nightmare they have to deal with for their high altitude airfields in Tibet as well as forced to be out in the open generally. The PLA/PLAAF/PLAN will remain reasonably pinned but certainly their formidable PLARF needs to be contended with (assuming they haven't filled all their ordnances with water as was recently discovered).
The sooner Brahmos800 and Nirbhay can be inducted, the quicker we can target airfields in Xinjiang, and even put their population centers in Chengdu at risk without resorting to SBMs:
And that doesn't even begin to take into account the unprecedented rate at which their generals have been sacked -- not even one showed up to their grand parade! Or the fact their weapons proved worthless in Op Sindoor.
The Chinese are a formidable opponent and India shouldn't repeat the humiliation of 1962 (thanks to poor leadership), but let's also not make them out to be invincible. India is more than capable of handling them today.
We need to have hundreds of hypersonic missiles and ballistic missiles with 3,000 km range as he said, though it will be expensive to produce and maintain. But it will be worth the effort.
De centralised & spread out plus air gapped also hampers our operational responses. So it cuts both ways .
I was giving you an analogy of what they might try. In any case like I've mentioned before the element of surprise was lost in 2020.
Moreover as I've also pointed out before our upcoming war against the Chinese would broadly have two components - the land war across the LAC & the other domains.
While we can give them a tough fight in the first one , we're lacking in the second domain across multiple fronts & in some cases severely.
That has the potential to undermine whatever gains we make in the first component.