MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions

[randomradio]

If SA want to send a message to GB and USA, with a good impact on its air force strength, I see a first purchase of 48.
Enough to wait the US and GB answer,
Enough to not have all the eggs in the same basket,
Too few for an arm race.

Egypt with at least 54-100, Qatar with 36-72, UAE with 80 and now Saudi with 48-200. That leaves Turkey and Iran to come up with their own solutions.

And because Turkey and Azerbaijan are allying with Pakistan to create problems in Kashmir, we are arming Armenia. Now Russia and India will have to arm Armenia with fighters too. The Russians are also bound to create problems in Georgia. And they are sure to eventually arm Syria. And we already know the problems both Russia and China are creating in Africa.

Basically a Saudi purchase of Rafales will enable them to have a more independent foreign policy free from US/UK influence, which means the region will open up for Chinese interference.

The Chinese are already in Iran. If they entrench themselves in the GCC, then the US will be forced to pick sides, and they may choose Turkey 'cause of Russia. So both India and France will end up in a problematic situation.

With 400+ Rafales in the region, if Iran decides to match that with next gen Russian/Chinese tech, then Israel's in trouble too. If Israel is pressured, then the US will become more diplomatically aggressive. And any instability in the ME reflects on our prices back home. All 'cause the Saudis are attempting to chart their own course independent of the US.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

100-200 Rafales could result in an arms race.

And where is the problem?

 

[randomradio]

And where is the problem?

Saudi foreign policy independent from US/UK and Turkey's and Iran's reaction to this purchase. Potential entry of China into the ME.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

China's entry into the Middle East is more likely if SA doesn't buy the Rafale than if it does buy the Rafale, because if it doesn't buy the Rafale and rejects the US and the UK, what solution is left? And if the US chooses Turkey, we'll arm Greece, which should keep them busy for a while.

 

[john0496]

I do not think it's a good thing for France to sell Rafales to SA.
It's only a good thing for Dassault.
SA is not a traditionnal partner for France. We don't share great common interests.
France should buy Rafales for the french armies, and for the Marine Nationale first.

 

[Herciv]

I do not think it's a good thing for France to sell Rafales to SA.
It's only a good thing for Dassault.
SA is not a traditionnal partner for France. We don't share great common interests.
France should buy Rafales for the french armies, and for the Marine Nationale first.

If SA act alone in the next decades I can agree. But will it be possible ? I don't think. The post likely is that SA operate as a non align country, but under the influence of India policy as the very main part of rafale's customers.
The real challenge for SA is not for US but between India and China.

 

[randomradio]

China's entry into the Middle East is more likely if SA doesn't buy the Rafale than if it does buy the Rafale, because if it doesn't buy the Rafale and rejects the US and the UK, what solution is left? And if the US chooses Turkey, we'll arm Greece, which should keep them busy for a while.

Saudi has 300+ F-15s, out of which only 84 are young. Combine 84 with 72 Typhoons, the Saudis plan to balance it out with an equal number of Rafales, directly replacing older American and British fighters.

The potential Rafale order is so large that it can become the signal of a decoupling from the US, and if the Saudis leave the US, the only other alternative is Russia or China, most likely China. France is too small a power, can't influence global markets like the main powers.

Turkey is a much bigger power compared to Greece and an aggressor state. They have imperial aspirations.

The world order is changing too quickly. Perhaps whatever the US is doing in the ME is enough to distract the Chinese away from Taiwan.

 

[randomradio]

If SA act alone in the next decades I can agree. But will it be possible ? I don't think. The post likely is that SA operate as a non align country, but under the influence of India policy as the very main part of rafale's customers.
The real challenge for SA is not for US but between India and China.

Saudi has to pick a side, they can't survive on their own.

In the long run, yeah, but today India is too small a player. We are the same size as France, minus our oil market. It's not enough to influence the Saudis like the US and China. India also follows a policy of neutrality in the ME. Plus India's hands are tied until Pakistan is dealt with first.

 

[Bon Plan]

I do not think it's a good thing for France to sell Rafales to SA.
It's only a good thing for Dassault.
SA is not a traditionnal partner for France. We don't share great common interests.
France should buy Rafales for the french armies, and for the Marine Nationale first.

Until the very last years, we sell all the SA navy vessels, earlier MBT and short range air defense...
We are a traditionnal partner. Not among the biggestn but a usual partner.
Add petrol : SA is our main supplier.

Perhaps whatever the US is doing in the ME is enough to distract the Chinese away from Taiwan.

I'm afraid not.
Next big clash (after ukrainian - russian war) will occur in the Taiwan strait. in the 5 to 10 years max.

 

[Herciv]

Saudi has to pick a side, they can't survive on their own.

In the long run, yeah, but today India is too small a player. We are the same size as France, minus our oil market. It's not enough to influence the Saudis like the US and China. India also follows a policy of neutrality in the ME. Plus India's hands are tied until Pakistan is dealt with first.

Modi has a bigger ambition for India and will always received help from Macron if needed. The moon landing make India look more and more like a super power in the becoming.
The world need a non align nation with no imperialist ambition. India look like this nation for a lot of countries. For example most of the arabic countries hopes such an ambition from India.

 

[randomradio]

I do not think it's a good thing for France to sell Rafales to SA.
It's only a good thing for Dassault.
SA is not a traditionnal partner for France. We don't share great common interests.
France should buy Rafales for the french armies, and for the Marine Nationale first.

A small number is fine, but 100-200 is too much. Even 70-80 is significantly less threatening, it will not displace the US/UK.

Otoh, if the US sells another 100 F-15s and Japan allows Saudi participation in GCAP, then selling 100-200 Rafales will be fine, it won't erode US/UK hold over the Saudis. It will still lead to an arms race, but at least the Saudis won't be the main destabilising factor and GCC will continue to remain in US/UK pockets.

If the US/UK are kicked out, then any Chinese control over Saudi or the GCC will give them direct influence to over 50% of the global oil production. A totally underserved status, which they will put to good use, while they get discounted oil.

 

[randomradio]

I'm afraid not.
Next big clash (after ukrainian - russian war) will occur in the Taiwan strait. in the 5 to 10 years max.

Yes. But the US doesn't want that. So the best way to maintain control over the Pacific is to distract global powers away from the Pacific.

 

[randomradio]

Modi has a bigger ambition for India and will always received help from Macron if needed. The moon landing make India look more and more like a super power in the becoming.
The world need a non align nation with no imperialist ambition. India look like this nation for a lot of countries. For example most of the arabic countries hopes such an ambition from India.

I agree, but India has only soft power today, not hard power. We lack the military strength necessary to face challenges outside immediate neighbors, and we barely even have the resources for that. Modi, if re-elected, will only stay in power for 5 more years before retirement. But it will take India a minimum of 10 years to create hard power. I reckon at least 15 years, 'cause navy takes time to build. Modi keeps talking about India becoming a "net security provider" for the IOR, but it's just a political slogan today.

Only the US, UK and France have hard power. China will get there well within this decade, rivaling the US in some ways. It's why I keep complaining about France not doing enough.

Forget military hard power, we are not even an economic hard power. 85% of India's population lives on $5.5 per day compared to 25% in China, just $2000 per year. So the people who care about these things are less than 15% of the population, so you can understand how even Indian politicians are more interested in looking inwards than outwards. India's democracy is still dealing with a poverty mindset, we don't yet have an abundance mindset, which only exists on forums like this, and gives an incorrect perception to the wider global audience. We need a population shift where the literate section outnumbers the illiterate. India is currently surviving off of only 100-200 million people.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

France wants Europe to become a power, but we have to admit that the other Europeans don't want that. So we think that France + India would be a much greater power than France on its own or India on its own, because we complement each other.

 

[jetray]

I agree, but India has only soft power today, not hard power. We lack the military strength necessary to face challenges outside immediate neighbors, and we barely even have the resources for that. Modi, if re-elected, will only stay in power for 5 more years before retirement. But it will take India a minimum of 10 years to create hard power. I reckon at least 15 years, 'cause navy takes time to build. Modi keeps talking about India becoming a "net security provider" for the IOR, but it's just a political slogan today.

Only the US, UK and France have hard power. China will get there well within this decade, rivaling the US in some ways. It's why I keep complaining about France not doing enough.

Forget military hard power, we are not even an economic hard power. 85% of India's population lives on $5.5 per day compared to 25% in China, just $2000 per year. So the people who care about these things are less than 15% of the population, so you can understand how even Indian politicians are more interested in looking inwards than outwards. India's democracy is still dealing with a poverty mindset, we don't yet have an abundance mindset, which only exists on forums like this, and gives an incorrect perception to the wider global audience. We need a population shift where the literate section outnumbers the illiterate. India is currently surviving off of only 100-200 million people.

we will assert ourselves after poverty eradication is like saying I will do things after school, after college then after retirement. It reflects more of poverty of leadership , strategic thinking & execution , which is what we severely lack. Only those powers who have asserted themselves have acquired resources & market to remove poverty from their population.

Its not India lacks military to exercise hard power, its just we lack mentality & attitude. When you have politicians who cannot look beyond their noses you will have a country who cannot see or do things beyond their borders.

 

[randomradio]

France wants Europe to become a power, but we have to admit that the other Europeans don't want that. So we think that France + India would be a much greater power than France on its own or India on its own, because we complement each other.

Hence the 10-15 year wait. If we do it alone, it's a 25-30 year wait, the route China has taken.

China began its militarization process after they became a $10T economy. We have already started. So when we become worth $10T, we will have all the world beating tech in our hands.

Russia (aircraft, armor, rocket propulsion, nuclear propulsion) and Israel (electronics) have been instrumental in doing that for us. And now France with engines and space tech is joining that club.

 

[randomradio]

we will assert ourselves after poverty eradication is like saying I will do things after school, after college then after retirement. It reflects more of poverty of leadership , strategic thinking & execution , which is what we severely lack. Only those powers who have asserted themselves have acquired resources & market to remove poverty from their population.

Its not India lacks military to exercise hard power, its just we lack mentality & attitude. When you have politicians who cannot look beyond their noses you will have a country who cannot see or do things beyond their borders.

It definitely requires political will, which exists in certain quarters, but the main factor is money.

But money comes only when people are willing to sacrifice comfort for the sake of national goals, something the Chinese call national rejuvenation. But people in India are far too poor to give up on "comfort" because it generally implies going hungry. A literate population can sacrifice by paying more taxes in case the govt needs money, but in India it would mean sacrificing the various welfare programs designed to keep farmers in business and the poor fed.

India is a population of 200 million with 1.2 billion dependents. And that's only to maintain a basic standard of living. In reality, if you want to play power games at the top, then only 1% of India's population pay income tax. So that's 14 million earners and 1.4 billion dependents, and the average Indian taxpayer pays a lot less than an average Western one.

So, even if there is political will, where's the money?

 

[South block]

 

[Hydra]

Government literally killed mrfa/mmrca2

 

[randomradio]

Government literally killed mrfa/mmrca2

HAL did. They were the ones who killed FGFA as well.

Govt saved MMRCA, with their risky bet on 2 squadrons.