MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions

[randomradio]

Eh Eh ...
What about the Navy?

USN? Boeing will deliver the last plane in 2024. There are no orders beyond that. The last I heard the SH line will be converted for MLU.

To keep the production line open for MRFA, they need either the German or IN order. We know the German order is gone. And the US has begun making itself politically unviable for India. The now concrete realisation that we will choose Russia over the US seems to have hit them hard.

Don't dismiss the SH for the IN though, the numbers are still small enough for CAATSA to not create hurdles. But if Boeing switches out the SH with F-15EX for MRFA, then we know that Boeing does not have much confidence in the SH. The fact is Boeing has to reply to the MRFA RFP before the IN winner is announced. So it can also mean that Boeing does not have much confidence in winning the IN's order.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

I'm more inclined to believe it will be a bit faster than the Mk2.

With imports the IAF can choose to import the follow-on options in parallel, whereas with Mk2, they can ask for an Mk2A as part of the options, which can take longer. Assuming serial inductions begin in 2030 at 12 a year for Rafale and 16 a year for Mk2, options can double the Rafale to 24 by 2033-34 while the Mk2 stays at 16.

So we could see Rafale production ending by 2039 while Mk2 can go on until 2042. The reason being the alternative will take too long, all the way up to 2045, which would complicate matters with AMCA considering Rafale production would continue even after AMCA has ended and that would be undesirable for business and political reasons.

I hope that the MMRCA concluded a bit faster and the final assembly plant here starts deliveries by 2027-28. Even at 12 Aircrafts a year for say 10 year, the facility should be viable. If still a twin engine platform is needed, go for a modified tedbf version.

But that's too far.

As of now I am only looking up till the 2025-26 period. Hopefully we get an off self purchase of 36 more Rafales first. Along with Mk1A would be solving short term issues. After 2026-27 we can start looking at expansion.

So it can also mean that Boeing does not have much confidence in winning the IN's order.

Considering we haven't given up the failed practice of L1. I think SH is still a strong contender for Navy. Their cost offer will be very competitive.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

USN? Boeing will deliver the last plane in 2024. There are no orders beyond that. The last I heard the SH line will be converted for MLU.

To keep the production line open for MRFA, they need either the German or IN order. We know the German order is gone. And the US has begun making itself politically unviable for India. The now concrete realisation that we will choose Russia over the US seems to have hit them hard.

Don't dismiss the SH for the IN though, the numbers are still small enough for CAATSA to not create hurdles. But if Boeing switches out the SH with F-15EX for MRFA, then we know that Boeing does not have much confidence in the SH. The fact is Boeing has to reply to the MRFA RFP before the IN winner is announced. So it can also mean that Boeing does not have much confidence in winning the IN's order.

But what about the planned leasing of aircraft for the IAC1 introduction ceremony next July?
There should be a choice from IN beforehand between the SH and the Rafale?

 

[Innominate]

The problem is the F-15EX is simply another MKI, which is why I think Shukla is spinning tales as usual. But Boeing may not be able to sustain the SH line for long without German or IN orders. And with the US starting to prove their unreliability, the IN may end up with the Rafale.

Lol. If you think the F-15EX is just another MKI you're not as clever as you think you are.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Lol. If you think the F-15EX is just another MKI you're not as clever as you think you are.

US has a bad attitude , always hectoring its allies

 

[Ankit Kumar]

Lol. If you think the F-15EX is just another MKI you're not as clever as you think you are.

MKI hasn't seen an upgrade in 20 years. And MMRCA 2 may or may not happen but the upgrade will happen. And it will more or less fill any capability gap. IAF if needs any more in the class of heavy air superiority fighter, will get more MKIs. That's why Su35 and F15 both won't make the cut. Typhoon is too costly to acquire, so it's between SH and Rafales to fight it out.

 

[_Anonymous_]

MRFA if fructifies will be delivering aircrafts in the similar timeframe like that of Tejas MK2.

Which is precisely what we don't need . The need is for this decade . The next decade ought to be for an indigenous 4.5++ Gen home grown solution which is the Mk-2 , different iterations of the AMCA & planned development of a 6 / 6.5 Gen Fighter Aircraft.

 

[randomradio]

I hope that the MMRCA concluded a bit faster and the final assembly plant here starts deliveries by 2027-28. Even at 12 Aircrafts a year for say 10 year, the facility should be viable. If still a twin engine platform is needed, go for a modified tedbf version.

But that's too far.

As of now I am only looking up till the 2025-26 period. Hopefully we get an off self purchase of 36 more Rafales first. Along with Mk1A would be solving short term issues. After 2026-27 we can start looking at expansion.

Can't help it. The IAF wants a tender over a direct GTG. From their PoV, the order is large enough that it will give them an idea about what others think will be the next 20-30 years of air warfare, and the tender is the ticket to such information.

TEDBF will come after AMCA Mk1, it's useless to the IAF. It needs 10+ years of service before the IAF shows interest in it, but by then the MKI replacement will be happening. Any clean sheet design requires 10 years of service before it becomes a serious contender for MRFA. A modified design would require at least 5 years. If it's not a proven aircraft, best not to talk about it. The IAF is already taking risk with LCA Mk2 and AMCA, there is no need to add a third high tier risk until the Indian industry actually delivers. So that's 2040+.

Considering we haven't given up the failed practice of L1. I think SH is still a strong contender for Navy. Their cost offer will be very competitive.

We have modified the L1 to give us the advantage. It's not such a big problem anymore.

SH is the most likely winner for the IN. But Boeing's behaviour is a bit awkward considering the F-15EX stands no chance in MRFA.

 

[randomradio]

But what about the planned leasing of aircraft for the IAC1 introduction ceremony next July?
There should be a choice from IN beforehand between the SH and the Rafale?

No, I don't think the IN has already decided. Even if they did, I wouldn't know. Once the SH begins trials, the decision should be made. But I won't be surprised if some important people favour the SH based on previous data, something @vstol Jockey talked about when he said the SH B3 is more advanced and has better deck performance compared to the Rafale.

The aircraft that wins will be leased. I guess a lease contract will be signed after the main contract has reached an acceptable level in negotiations. Or both may be signed together. I am leaning on the latter.

At this time, Vikramaditya is apparently under refit. Should take time, so Vikrant has a functional air wing with Mig-29K. Air wing IOC is planned for mid-2023.

MRCBF is for IAC-2 rather than Vikrant. So I believe the leased jets are needed to design the carrier, which apparently has been downgraded to 50000T now.

 

[Hydra]

The problem is the F-15EX is simply another MKI, which is why I think Shukla is spinning tales as usual. But Boeing may not be able to sustain the SH line for long without German or IN orders. And with the US starting to prove their unreliability, the IN may end up with the Rafale.

Good thing is that F15 EX can do & done what ever we are believing an MKI is capable of doing.

 

[randomradio]

Lol. If you think the F-15EX is just another MKI you're not as clever as you think you are.

If we put a squadron each in a pit, the MKI will win. Why? Because the F-15EX doesn't exist yet. Will at best have 12 by the end of 2023.

So naturally, being a new jet it's gonna be more advanced. But the MKI MLU will deliver more advanced capabilities and better numbers before 2030. So we are good at the heavy front. The F-15 will simply be an inferior cousin of the MKI at twice the cost and three times the expected "advanced" life. We want to fly Cold War era crap for only another 20 years not 60.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Cold war era crap. Lol. Time for sweetie to get xis / xer / xem / xeir thongs into a twist .

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

SH based on previous data, something @vstol Jockey talked about when he said the SH B3 is more advanced and has better deck performance compared to the Rafale.

I don't think it is true.

 

[randomradio]

I don't think it is true.

I don't think so either, but as per him his colleagues who tested the jet said the B3 was, at least compared to F3R. It may not necessarily be in reference to basic technologies like radar and EW suite, but more exotic tech that's reserved for USN. I suppose while the IAF is looking at independent capabilities, the IN is looking at USN-dependent capabilities against China and independent capabilities against other adversaries.

Plus you can expect that the USN must have demonstrated a lot of USN-specific capabilities to IN pilots during exercises, particularly to do with force coordination and situational awareness that a mere fighter jet cannot provide on its own. There may be new weapons and drone options too.

I think you should consider the overall capability boost a jet provides for the still nascent aviation capabilities of the IN compared to the piecemeal spec-heavy criterias that the IAF would look at in MRFA that would fit within their more developed and mature structure.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

I don't think so either, but as per him his colleagues who tested the jet said the B3 was, at least compared to F3R. It may not necessarily be in reference to basic technologies like radar and EW suite, but more exotic tech that's reserved for USN. I suppose while the IAF is looking at independent capabilities, the IN is looking at USN-dependent capabilities against China and independent capabilities against other adversaries.

Plus you can expect that the USN must have demonstrated a lot of USN-specific capabilities to IN pilots during exercises, particularly to do with force coordination and situational awareness that a mere fighter jet cannot provide on its own. There may be new weapons and drone options too.

I think you should consider the overall capability boost a jet provides for the still nascent aviation capabilities of the IN compared to the piecemeal spec-heavy criterias that the IAF would look at in MRFA that would fit within their more developed and mature structure.

We'll see about that

 

[Sathya]

I don't think it is true.

I think vstol said if provided with F414 110KN engine s.. It ll have better deck performance.
And Conformal tanks were dropped due to some issue s.

 

[vstol Jockey]

I don't think it is true.

It is true as the Blk-3 has 116KN engines which not only provide 4 tons of extra thrust without increase in weight but also provide much larger electrical power for more electrical aircraft. The best part is increase in dry thrust from 65Kn to 75KN.

 

[Hydra]

It is true as the Blk-3 has 116KN engines which not only provide 4 tons of extra thrust without increase in weight but also provide much larger electrical power for more electrical aircraft. The best part is increase in dry thrust from 65Kn to 75KN.

What's your opinion on f15EX with mmrca2? And why Boeing is even bringing a heavy category aircraft to a tendering process which is intended to procure a medium class aircraft?

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

It is true as the Blk-3 has 116KN engines which not only provide 4 tons of extra thrust without increase in weight but also provide much larger electrical power for more electrical aircraft. The best part is increase in dry thrust from 65Kn to 75KN.

It retains the aerodynamics of a ski racer in a snowplough.

 

[vstol Jockey]

It retains the aerodynamics of a ski racer in a snowplough.

It did have lot of problems earlier due to 20* sweepback wings and lack of adequate thrust. But the B3 is far superior in TWR compared to B2. So as far as deck performance goes, it is now a much better and much evolved aircraft for operations from STOBAR carriers.