MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions

What is your favorite for MMRCA 2.0 ?

  • F-35 Blk 4

    Votes: 39 15.4%
  • Rafale F4

    Votes: 197 77.6%
  • Eurofighter Typhoon T3

    Votes: 4 1.6%
  • Gripen E/F

    Votes: 6 2.4%
  • F-16 B70

    Votes: 1 0.4%
  • F-18 SH

    Votes: 11 4.3%
  • F-15EX

    Votes: 9 3.5%
  • Mig-35

    Votes: 1 0.4%

  • Total voters
    254
Ever the optimist!

That's the plan though. They want to finalise the choice of jet as early as possible so they can start the design of IAC-2. So any design related funding has to be decided before next year's budget is finalised in Jan.

It's also the main reason why the IN decided to skip the tender. Instead they plan to just choose the best jet of the two and start GTG negotiations.
 
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I couldn't find the article but I came across two interesting pieces of information: the CDG was designed to be able to catapult 100 planes a day for a week. The rate of use considered "normal" is 50 per day.

So I think we must have been at around 80 sorties and the Americans at 100.

That's why I asked. It seems incorrect because while the CdG may max out at 30 jets, the Nimitz can go all the way to 70+. The Americans just tend to keep it cheap during peacetime by operating 48 jets at a time.


Nimitz conducted 975 sorties over 4 days. 727 were conducted by F-14s and SHs. That's 181+ per day. This is not counting DCA conducted by F-14s. The total were just 50 fighters, 36 SHs and 14 F-14s, with only 32 SHs and 9 F-14s being mission capable, so the actual number was just 41 jets.

Which is why I was interested in accurate numbers from France, 'cause 41 jets generated an average of 181 sorties per day. That's almost 4.5 sorties a day. More so if we add DCA jets.

We could be comparing CdG's best figures with Nimitz's almost peacetime figures.
 
After MRO, Dassault plans to manufacture Rafale CKD at its DRAL facility in India.

DRAL will be able to assemble two Rafale jets per month and 24 per year, which will match France's current production capacity. Most of the jets will be delivered as CKDs (Completely Knocked Down) and assembled in India.

As an example of the consequences of the recent Rafale export contracts, I offer you a description of how Thales intends to reorganise itself.

To meet demand, Thales plans to produce up to 4.5 pieces of equipment per month, compared to the current 2.5. Although the group recognises that this is a leap into the unknown in terms of industrialisation, it is not leaving anything to chance: the ramp-up will be gradual in order to adapt the industrial tool and carry out the necessary recruitment. It will take one year, for example, to go from a rate of 2.5 elements produced per month to 3.5 per month and the same amount of time to reach the next level. Thales therefore plans to reach a rate of 4.5 by 2025.

Note that at this rate, the group will produce at a rate higher than that of the final assembly line of Dassault Aviation's Rafale located at Mérignac (Gironde). Why is this? There are two reasons. On the one hand, the aircraft manufacturer's suppliers must also deliver a certain number of spare parts for their customer, hence the higher production rate. On the other hand, the suppliers upstream of the production chain are affected earlier by the increase in production rates. For example, it takes two years to produce an electronic radar or optronic equipment for the Rafale. Thales must therefore anticipate.

An internal academy to train rare profiles: Among the industrial priorities of the moment: recruitment.

Hiring will be significant and variable according to the different production areas. The sites that design and produce electronic combat systems (Etrelles, Bordeaux, Elancourt) will recruit 300 people in 2022. The sites and factories that work on radiocommunication and navigation equipment (Gennevilliers, Cholet, Laval and Brive) will recruit 200 people, the same number as in 2021. The optronics activities based in Elancourt will require the hiring of about sixty people. Given the sensitivity of certain skills in the field of armament, certain profiles are more difficult to recruit than others. This is why Thales recently set up an internal academy in Elancourt to train its engineers and technicians in the field of electronic warfare.

70 key suppliers to watch: In addition to these recruitments, there are industrial investments to accommodate new activities linked to the development and testing of equipment, to acquire new production benches, to increase the production area... Work is due to start this year. The sites in charge of activities related to electronic combat systems are in the front line. The Etrelles site will benefit from an extension of 1,200 m2, Brest (Finistère) from 650 m2 and Bordeaux from 450 m2. The Elancourt site in the Paris region will increase its optronics production capacity by 280 m2. In total, some forty additional test benches will be acquired between now and 2025 for all sites. Thales is also making sure that its supply chain is up to speed, particularly 70 key suppliers. To enable them to anticipate, it shares production objectives with them and indicates that it is ready to support those who encounter financing or recruitment problems.
 
Do you realise how many years they have been saying about an engine upgrade? At least 10 that I know of. If it was simple and cheap, it would have been done by now.
Not really.
The higher thrust engine R&D efforts were made in parallel with lower ownership costs initiativ, and french armies decided the higher thrust is absolutely not necessary now (always a pilot dream...) but choose instead to reduce the cost.
So it's quite natural to see a higher thrust engine nearly ready (if not 100% ready).
Some french forumers said for years Qatar chose this 8.3T engine, but unfortunately withour proof.
 
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The Rafale has had 3 engines so far. The US and 2 French models, M88 1 and 2. They were the ones talking about 9t, which is now 8.3t. I hope you don't mind if I wait and see. It may share a new engine with their next gen aircraft.
NO.
F404 was only used on the Rafale A demonstrator. It doesn't fit in serial one, because too long.
M88-1 never see the lights, except may in a prototyp form maybe. And never on a Rafale proto or serial.
There are only some M88-2 variants on Rafale so far (variants with differents fuel consummings or cost of ownership).
M88-3 is the 9T version. It was tested.
M88-4 is the 10.5T version. Only a paper project so far.
 

Rafale à l'export : et maintenant ?


Dassault Aviation is participating in two calls for tender, one for the French Air Force for 114 aircraft, the other for the Navy (between 26 and 57 aircraft). In this context, the Rafale Marine successfully completed trials in January in Goa on a land platform. The aircraft is well suited to the configuration of the Indian aircraft carrier in terms of size, especially as it can take lifts. Its American competitor, the Boeing F-18, carried out tests in December. A decision is expected at the end of the year for the Rafale Marine. A decision on the Rafale Air is not expected before 2023/2024 in India, which is due to receive its last three Rafales out of the 36 ordered in 2016 in 2022.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
 
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With Mission Rafale Accomplished, France Now Eyes Bigger Deal For Dassault Fighters For Indian Air Force & Navy

India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s three-day France visit seems to have provided a new thrust to the strategic and defense partnership between the two countries.

The purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets by India is frequently defined as a milestone in their defense relationship. On February 23, Jaishankar delivered a speech at the French Institute of International Relations on ‘How India Sees France’. Interestingly, France also completed the delivery of the three aircraft on February 23 night.

The Indian Air Force has so far received 35 of the 36 Rafales ordered. The last one with India-specific enhancements is expected to land next month.

According to Jaishankar, in the past two decades, New Delhi has “transformed many of its relationships, in its extended neighborhood as much as at the global level”.

“Our relationship with France, though, is one that bridges multiple generations. History is certainly an asset for this particular account. What is now happening is a shared endeavor to take it to a still higher level. I can assert with genuine confidence that it is the strongest now since our journey as an independent nation began 75 years ago,” he said.
“It is a relationship that has been free from sudden shifts and surprises that we sometimes see in other cases. Indeed, these ties have continuously adapted to change and come out stronger for that,” the minister added.

In terms of the defense relationship, Jaishankar said, “Our first acquisition of French fighter aircraft was in the early 1950s. Since then, succeeding generations of French aircraft and other platforms and equipment have been an integral part of the Indian military force. India, therefore, has strong reason to see France as a critical partner for its national security.”

Stressing that multiple crises are raging around the world now, including one in Europe, he said, “It is taking place in the midst of significant geopolitical, geoeconomics, and technological upheavals. The pandemic’s widespread disruption has heightened, if not expedited, these patterns. These developments, taken together, have posed fresh challenges to the international order. We no longer have the comfort of the familiar.”

“I am also pleased to share my thoughts on how India sees France. It is particularly appropriate that I am doing so following a bilateral meeting with Foreign Minister Le Drian, Defence Minister Parly and the Indo Pacific Ministerial Forum for which I came here. These occasions captured the strategic priorities that provide a compelling framework of what I believe is a truly unique partnership between India and France,” he said.

France Eyes New Deal

As the delivery of 36 Dassault Rafales is almost completed (the last one arriving next month), there have been discussions on purchasing another 36 under the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program, loosely called MMRCA 2.0.

The IAF’s fighter strength is depleting, prompting this new procurement program. Out of a sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons, the IAF currently operates 32. The MRFA jets would replace aging aircraft such as MiG-21s, Mirage 2000s, and Jaguars.

The Rafale could be suitable for this new procurement, according to a recent survey by The EurAsian Times. France is keen to secure this deal. Last year, France’s Minister of the Armed Forces, Florence Parly, stated that Paris is prepared to respond to any additional needs or requests for additional Rafale fighter jets from India, including for its indigenous aircraft carrier.

Last November, the two countries also agreed to strengthen their defense and security cooperation by improving intelligence and information sharing, strengthening capabilities, expanding military drills, and pursuing new maritime, space, and cyber activities.

The Indo-French defense collaboration has increased significantly after Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced a new security alliance — AUKUS — last September, in response to China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.

The pact promises eight state-of-the-are nuclear submarines for Australia. This came as a big blow to France as Canberra subsequently withdrew from its submarine agreement with Paris.

Rafale-M For Indian Navy

The Indian Navy is looking for a new carrier-based fighter jet, and the Rafale-M, manufactured by France, is a leading contender.

Previously, the naval variant of the Rafale was flight-tested at a shore-based facility in Goa, where conditions comparable to those aboard the indigenously-developed aircraft carrier INS Vikrant were emulated, as previously reported by EurAsian Times.

The Rafale-M is competing with the US-made Super Hornet for India’s carrier-based fighter jet contract. The INS Vikrant, India’s second aircraft carrier, is slated to be commissioned in August.

Last month, the Rafale-M fighter was said to have been tested for 12 days at the INS Hansa facility in Goa, utilizing a 283-meter artificial ski-jump ramp. Parallel tests for Boeing’s Super Hornet or F/A-18E/F jet are planned at INS Hansa next month. The French aircraft’s weight-to-power ratio and maritime attack capabilities are thought to favor its possible entry into the Indian Navy.

Jet Engine Technology

In his latest statement, Jaishankar mentioned the possibility of a technology partnership between the two countries. He added that France is one of the most important countries as India works to achieve industrial self-sufficiency in the defense sector, which he sees as a top priority.

India takes inspiration from France’s own national self-sufficiency in this regard. New Delhi is also considering ambitious concepts for collaborative ventures in India, given the history of defense cooperation between two countries, he said.

Considering the growing defense collaboration between the two nations, Jaishankar may hold negotiations with the French government about the transfer of technology to produce 100-kilonewton Safran aircraft engines in India as part of the ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ (self-reliant India) program.

The engine development agreements between the two countries have been ongoing for quite some time. Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said in December last year that France has agreed to jointly produce aircraft engines in India to increase the country’s self-reliance in the defense manufacturing sector.

“A big French company will manufacture an engine in India, thus far not made in the country, in collaboration with an Indian firm,” Rajnath Singh then said, most presumably referring to the Safran group.

France had earlier also proposed an enticing proposal to revive plans to develop the indigenous Kaveri jet engine as part of the Rafale agreement, as previously reported by The EurAsian Times. In addition, a detailed presentation on developing an aircraft engine ecosystem in India was given.

Safran, which develops engines and electronics for the Rafale fighter, has offered to co-develop the Kaveri engine for the Indian Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) program, which currently relies on American GE engines.

In early 2021, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), India’s state-owned aircraft maker, and Safran signed an MoU (Memorandum of Understanding), announcing their intention to collaborate on engine technology.

France had indicated that India will be the sole country to get such advanced technology transfer, ensuring that New Delhi would achieve complete “sovereignty” in the field of aero-engine technology.
 
If IAF ever wants to address its dropping sqdn strengths, alongside the Mk1A; F16's might be an option that needs to be reassessed. Also upgraded used airframes might be an option to be assessed.
 
If IAF ever wants to address its dropping sqdn strengths, alongside the Mk1A; F16's might be an option that needs to be reassessed. Also upgraded used airframes might be an option to be assessed.

The IAF is not going for either option though. The F-16s are too old, and the options for second hand jets are extremely limited.

And by the time we make a decision, LCA Mk2 will be ready for deliveries.
 
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The IAF is not going for either option though. The F-16s are too old, and the options for second hand jets are extremely limited.

And by the time we make a decision, LCA Mk2 will be ready for deliveries.
6 fishbed sqdns will decommission in the next 10yrs, and only additions as of now is 4 LCA and one rafale sqdns. 31 sqdns after 10yrs. Lets say we add additional 4 sqdns of LCA mk2, it's highly unlikely that all of them will be delivered in the same time frame, best case we will have 35 sqdns. We will get an additional 5 sqdns of the MRFA which will take it to 40sqdns.

Now if we look at f16, given it's one of the most optimized line , they have the capability to add 2qdns / year and can make a pretty nifty stop-gap especially if we look at the used market. US Air national guards have a massive stock pile and then there are multiple options out there that are going to flood the market. In some circumstances, it might be just a better option to keep them out of adversaries' access. Even if decide to get 5 new F16V's and 5 used BLk60 AESA upgrade sqdns. that will get us to a comfortable 50 sqdns and ease the pressure off the M2K and M29 retirement timeframes.
 
6 fishbed sqdns will decommission in the next 10yrs, and only additions as of now is 4 LCA and one rafale sqdns. 31 sqdns after 10yrs. Lets say we add additional 4 sqdns of LCA mk2, it's highly unlikely that all of them will be delivered in the same time frame, best case we will have 35 sqdns. We will get an additional 5 sqdns of the MRFA which will take it to 40sqdns.

Even if the F-16 was a viable option, which it is not, it's still too late.

The LCA Mk2 is gonna roll out this year and start flying the next. Within 3-4 years the first deliveries will begin. Post that is just an expansion of the assembly line to 24-36 jets a year, well within HAL's ability to achieve that, especially with Mk1A production going down. And we get a better jet than the F-16 in the process.

In any case, there's no real fix within the decade. Anything we do now in terms of new jets will only add to the fleet in piecemeal numbers. Faced with this reality, the IAF bought the S-400.

Now if we look at f16, given it's one of the most optimized line , they have the capability to add 2qdns / year and can make a pretty nifty stop-gap especially if we look at the used market. US Air national guards have a massive stock pile and then there are multiple options out there that are going to flood the market. In some circumstances, it might be just a better option to keep them out of adversaries' access. Even if decide to get 5 new F16V's and 5 used BLk60 AESA upgrade sqdns. that will get us to a comfortable 50 sqdns and ease the pressure off the M2K and M29 retirement timeframes.

If you're assuming we are so desperate that we will import the entire requirement just to buy 3 years, then that's not gonna happen.

It doesn't make sense to directly import anything more than 2 squadrons, and only as a stopgap. India will easily lose access to the ability to support the jets during problem times if we do not produce it ourselves. 10 squadrons is way too much of a risk for that.
 

Dassault Aviation: The Ultimate Value Play

Feb. 28, 2022 1:18 PM ET

Summary​

  • Dassault is still very undervalued, and now, European nations are upping their defense budgets starting with the least trigger happy nation of them all: Germany.
  • The Rafale is what European nations need as they start taking a cold war more seriously, which is what we're in now.
  • 6th gen aren't coming till later in the '30s, and 5th gen are not of unequivocal value to most air forces, so there's a big hole for Dassault.
  • The NGF programme with Airbus is more likely to work out now that Europe have stronger reasons to cooperate to develop the next platform.
  • Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Value Lab get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »

Fighter jets


VanderWolf-Images/iStock via Getty Images

Dassault Aviation (DUAVF) is 33% of our managed portfolio, and in my personal portfolio, I have weighted it 50% since the beginning of 2021. The stock did nothing for a year, despite the fact that its core operations were valued at 0 despite strong profitability and resilient end markets. Patience has been rewarded, with Dassault Aviation now being up 50% in our portfolios. This should make you rethink focusing only on the US, where every idea has been thoroughly priced by institutional investors managing massive money with US restricted mandates and even smarter retail money.

It is high probability ideas like this that we focus on for our portfolios and the Value Lab, where value is utterly on our side. And despite the run-up, and because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the stock remains remarkably attractive in the short, medium and long term. We outline below.

Defense Spending in Europe​

The big thing that's happened, which is major for the Rafale, is that Germany has committed 100 billion EUR to defense spending at over 2% of GDP. Germany currently sports the Typhoon, but with Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF) as its representative in the next generation fighter (NGF) programmer headed together with Dassault representing France, it's still directly relevant for Dassault as we'll explain later.
The thing about Germany is that there's no country in Europe more shy about increasing its military power due to some historical precedent of that getting out of hand. If Germany decides to increase its spending, which, to be fair, it should have been spending more to begin with to meet NATO commitments, you can imagine that budgets across Europe will rise. Many eastern European countries that are very much at the frontlines with Russia have pretty old fleets, with a lot of dominance of F-16s, which are a 4th gen and pretty outdated fighter at this point. Typhoons and Rafales are pretty cheap, especially relative to F-35s, which countries will have to wait to purchase, which means there's definitely a ripening market. Moreover, the Rafale is a better dogfighter than the F-35. To be fair, the F-35 kills you before it's seen, which is the point of its stealth capabilities, but with stealth able to be a pretty marginal part of the fleet while still effective, militaries may opt to bulge up with Rafales or Typhoons in an accelerated modernisation timeline to meet the rising Russian threat.

The NGF​

The next generation fighter programme between Dassault and Airbus as well as other European partners is a little more beleaguered than the Tempest, which has less interests to juggle. Reports say that the Luftwaffe is considering the F-35 again to replace its 90 Tornados. This would be a blow to European interests, however, because the whole point of the NGF, which is a programme to make a fighter of 6th generation so even ahead of the F-35, is to foster the development of defense systems in Europe. We would not be surprised if Germany picked the F-35, but they have more reason to pick the Rafales, especially since if the NGF programme holds up despite some arguments, they'd anyway have 6th gen fighters that would surpass the F-35 down the line, where the F-35 has been a bit controversial in terms of value. The NGF is planning to produce jets by 2040, so the Rafale or more Typhoons might be a better intermediate pick while the NGF programme matures.

We think that the arguments over the NGF are likely to become a little more settled once the pie has proven to grow for all of Europe given rising tensions with Russia. There is still the risk that the Tempest by BAE Systems (OTCPK:BAESF) becomes the dominant platform for the defense of Europe, where Britain is at least a bit more European than the US, but the future of the NGF programme should be brighter rather than darker after this point.

Conclusions​

Based on our valuation back in the day, which did not make strong assumptions about growth in the Rafale line, we still have around 40% in upside from these levels on the basis of valuation. Short-term momentum might bring us even closer in the coming weeks. In the medium term, we may see fundamental improvements in the Rafale business line for Dassault, and this could further improve the upside beyond our valuation from Christmas 2020. In the long term, the NGF prospects may have improved.
There are risks to Dassault, like the fact that Safran, its engine producer, is exposed to Titanium shortage risk in relation to Russia sanctions. They are shoring up and are less than 40% exposed to Russian Titanium supplies. But the picture is overwhelmingly low risk, now with headwinds. Moreover, we're waiting for full-year earnings, and maybe our original private jet thesis shows performance too. Overall, Dassault is an obvious buy.
 

Dassault Aviation: The Ultimate Value Play

Feb. 28, 2022 1:18 PM ET

Summary​

  • Dassault is still very undervalued, and now, European nations are upping their defense budgets starting with the least trigger happy nation of them all: Germany.
  • The Rafale is what European nations need as they start taking a cold war more seriously, which is what we're in now.
  • 6th gen aren't coming till later in the '30s, and 5th gen are not of unequivocal value to most air forces, so there's a big hole for Dassault.
  • The NGF programme with Airbus is more likely to work out now that Europe have stronger reasons to cooperate to develop the next platform.
  • Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Value Lab get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »

Fighter jets


VanderWolf-Images/iStock via Getty Images

Dassault Aviation (DUAVF) is 33% of our managed portfolio, and in my personal portfolio, I have weighted it 50% since the beginning of 2021. The stock did nothing for a year, despite the fact that its core operations were valued at 0 despite strong profitability and resilient end markets. Patience has been rewarded, with Dassault Aviation now being up 50% in our portfolios. This should make you rethink focusing only on the US, where every idea has been thoroughly priced by institutional investors managing massive money with US restricted mandates and even smarter retail money.

It is high probability ideas like this that we focus on for our portfolios and the Value Lab, where value is utterly on our side. And despite the run-up, and because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the stock remains remarkably attractive in the short, medium and long term. We outline below.

Defense Spending in Europe​

The big thing that's happened, which is major for the Rafale, is that Germany has committed 100 billion EUR to defense spending at over 2% of GDP. Germany currently sports the Typhoon, but with Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF) as its representative in the next generation fighter (NGF) programmer headed together with Dassault representing France, it's still directly relevant for Dassault as we'll explain later.
The thing about Germany is that there's no country in Europe more shy about increasing its military power due to some historical precedent of that getting out of hand. If Germany decides to increase its spending, which, to be fair, it should have been spending more to begin with to meet NATO commitments, you can imagine that budgets across Europe will rise. Many eastern European countries that are very much at the frontlines with Russia have pretty old fleets, with a lot of dominance of F-16s, which are a 4th gen and pretty outdated fighter at this point. Typhoons and Rafales are pretty cheap, especially relative to F-35s, which countries will have to wait to purchase, which means there's definitely a ripening market. Moreover, the Rafale is a better dogfighter than the F-35. To be fair, the F-35 kills you before it's seen, which is the point of its stealth capabilities, but with stealth able to be a pretty marginal part of the fleet while still effective, militaries may opt to bulge up with Rafales or Typhoons in an accelerated modernisation timeline to meet the rising Russian threat.

The NGF​

The next generation fighter programme between Dassault and Airbus as well as other European partners is a little more beleaguered than the Tempest, which has less interests to juggle. Reports say that the Luftwaffe is considering the F-35 again to replace its 90 Tornados. This would be a blow to European interests, however, because the whole point of the NGF, which is a programme to make a fighter of 6th generation so even ahead of the F-35, is to foster the development of defense systems in Europe. We would not be surprised if Germany picked the F-35, but they have more reason to pick the Rafales, especially since if the NGF programme holds up despite some arguments, they'd anyway have 6th gen fighters that would surpass the F-35 down the line, where the F-35 has been a bit controversial in terms of value. The NGF is planning to produce jets by 2040, so the Rafale or more Typhoons might be a better intermediate pick while the NGF programme matures.

We think that the arguments over the NGF are likely to become a little more settled once the pie has proven to grow for all of Europe given rising tensions with Russia. There is still the risk that the Tempest by BAE Systems (OTCPK:BAESF) becomes the dominant platform for the defense of Europe, where Britain is at least a bit more European than the US, but the future of the NGF programme should be brighter rather than darker after this point.

Conclusions​

Based on our valuation back in the day, which did not make strong assumptions about growth in the Rafale line, we still have around 40% in upside from these levels on the basis of valuation. Short-term momentum might bring us even closer in the coming weeks. In the medium term, we may see fundamental improvements in the Rafale business line for Dassault, and this could further improve the upside beyond our valuation from Christmas 2020. In the long term, the NGF prospects may have improved.
There are risks to Dassault, like the fact that Safran, its engine producer, is exposed to Titanium shortage risk in relation to Russia sanctions. They are shoring up and are less than 40% exposed to Russian Titanium supplies. But the picture is overwhelmingly low risk, now with headwinds. Moreover, we're waiting for full-year earnings, and maybe our original private jet thesis shows performance too. Overall, Dassault is an obvious buy.

Expecting Germany to buy Rafales is quite a stretch, but Dassault's chances in Europe in general have picked up quite a bit.

If Frances plays its diplomatic cards right, many European countries could end up with Rafales. But I feel LM will dominate the European market anyway.

More opportunities for a Rafale vs F-35 tender though.
 
Expecting Germany to buy Rafales is quite a stretch, but Dassault's chances in Europe in general have picked up quite a bit.
That article is from financial analysts (notice how they talk about "value play" and buying shares) not from political or military analysts. We all know Germany will never buy the Rafale or anything else produced by a French industry.

But I don't really see any potential new customer in Europe. We're at the end of the current wave of aircraft replacement, everyone has already made their choice.
 
That article is from financial analysts (notice how they talk about "value play" and buying shares) not from political or military analysts. We all know Germany will never buy the Rafale or anything else produced by a French industry.

But I don't really see any potential new customer in Europe. We're at the end of the current wave of aircraft replacement, everyone has already made their choice.

If the French play their cards rights, some countries in Eastern Europe will want to rebuild their air forces and their options could be between the F-16, Gripen E and Rafale. Some may even go for a two-type fleet.

Some of these countries are still operating old jets, including Soviet ones that now need replacements.

Once the Russians start really bustin' balls in Ukraine, all these neighbours will fall in line with their 2% committment.