So much R&D that it became more expensive per aircraft than P8I. Something is wrong with numbers.
Maritime Patrol Aircraft : P-8I Neptune, Dornier-228 : News & Discussions
- Thread starter Ashwin
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R&D would be a third of the cost, easy. R&D costs can only be affordably amortized over a much larger order. 15 is too little compared to nearly 200 P-8s on order. It's the same reason why a B-2 costs $2B even if the actual bomber costs less than $750M. If a second batch is ordered, it will get cheaper.
Well its probably the entire thing, setting up division, machinery, workcenter , then the work, qualify thru QT, get certification done. All of that adds up along with profit margin for 2 entities now. Indian value addition % also pushed it higher typically.
Triton is a massively expensive platform. GoI and MoD will probably negotiate with the Navy to get it down to 4-5, similar to how the requirement of 22 MQ-9Bs was brought down to 15. Even the orded for 6 additional P-8Is isn't progressing forward. MoD will have a heart attack reading the price quote under FMS and will easily waste 2-3yrs on negotiations, if the Triton procurement ever reaches that stage.
The Tritons are important because they can work in concert with the P-8Is, 8 of them would cover our needs. The same is unlikely with HAL's planned drone in a similar class.
But yeah, the govt is more interested in protecting domestic companies rather than importing new capabilities faster.
We are likely to buy more MQ-9s, since it's something of a license production deal.
Oh I don't doubt the capability boost Triton will provide, I'm but wary of GoI creating roadblocks for such acquisitions. I agree that more SeaGuardians down the line looks highly likely. Triton is a more readily available solution so I do hope IN procures them.
Didn't realise HAL had proposed a jet-powered HALE UAV (MQ-4 equivalent). Indian/HAL's classification of MALE/HALE drones are a bit different from the US classification. HAL's HALE UAV proposal looks MQ9-inspired (MQ-9 is categorised as MALE and R/MQ-4 as HALE by the US).
The current HAL-planned HALE is an MQ-9 equivalent turboprop. There's also a turbojet version planned. But HAL has also planned to develop a UAV with the HTFE-25.
So it won't be as capable as the 35KN-powered Global Hawk or Triton, but something similar to that is possible. A twin-engine version could be even more capable. There's also an afterburner-version UCAV in the planning stages.
R&D of MMR conversion cost cannot be half the total budget of DRDO
56 aircraft with local production for 22,000 cr = Rs 392 cr per aircraft
15 aircraft MMR for 29,000 cr = Rs 1933 cr per aircraft
So if we go by your estimate of 1/3 cost as R&D = 1933 - 644 = Rs 1289 cr per vanilla aircraft with which you can by 3 transport version of C295.
Math is not mathing.
Spain recently placed order for 16 MPA version of C295 for $1.9 Billion. Here we are estimating $3.5 billion for 15 C295.
If this is the actual cost then its best to go for more P8I. For that cost you will get 12-14 P8Is.
We can assume six more P8I plans are dead if this proceeds. There wont be money left for the same mission set.
R&D of MMR conversion cost cannot be half the total budget of DRDO
56 aircraft with local production for 22,000 cr = Rs 392 cr per aircraft
15 aircraft MMR for 29,000 cr = Rs 1933 cr per aircraft
So if we go by your estimate of 1/3 cost as R&D = 1933 - 644 = Rs 1289 cr per vanilla aircraft with which you can by 3 transport version of C295.
Math is not mathing.
Spain recently placed order for 16 MPA version of C295 for $1.9 Billion. Here we are estimating $3.5 billion for 15 C295.
If this is the actual cost then its best to go for more P8I. For that cost you will get 12-14 P8Is.
We can assume six more P8I plans are dead if this continues.
Platform cost is very small relative to the cost of avionics and other capabilities in such aircraft.
The Spanish contract is without 100% R&D costs, only a part, 'cause it's been amortized over other orders. Being an existing operator may also have played a part.
This has always been the problem with local R&D, that's why the forces favored importing. And that's why producers aim for exports to amortize costs. We can't keep doing that anymore. Now the C-295 development will allow us to develop our own future P-8I at a lower cost, so consider it an investment for the future.
The IN wants 6 more P-8Is.
Airbus Defense & Space Revisiting A320 MPA, Unfazed By New Competition
SINGAPORE—Airbus Defense & Space is revisiting the design and development of a maritime patrol aircraft (MPA) based on the commercial A320 single-aisle airliner, following increased interest from both France and other customers in the Asia-Pacific region.“We have been hearing from customers that they want a larger MPA.” Airbus Defense & Space CEO Michael Schoellhorn tells Aviation Week. Airbus’ only MPA platform is the C925 MPA.
“It was always the question of how much development effort for how much volume,” he adds. “You need to have the right combination, and then it’s worth it with the current increase in demand.”
The A320 MPA concept was floated as early as 2018 but went quiet until 2023 when France awarded a contract to Dassault and Airbus to study a next-generation MPA.
This development also comes at a time when the Boeing P-8 Poseidon is nearing the end of production, leaving the market with no large, jet-powered MPA except the Embraer alternative that is still under development.
Despite establishing a beachhead in the Asian transport aircraft market, Schoellhorn remains unfazed on Embraer’s recent success in South Korea and Europe. Embraer edged out Airbus and Lockheed on a deal with South Korea for three KC-390s.
“Sometimes you mostly win and sometimes you lose,” Schoellhorn says. “The South Korean deal was not a disaster. It was for a small batch of aircraft with a relatively high ask in terms of offset and industrialization.”
Airbus’ A400M is expected to face the KC-390 in the Indian Air Force medium transport aircraft requirement, but Schoellhorn said the requirements of the program are still not yet clearly defined. He stressed that Airbus has been a supporter of the Made in India policy, proven with the local assembly of C295s by Tata Advanced Sytems.
Schoellhorn also revealed that the company is studying setting up a defense MRO center in Asia to keep aircraft maintenance close to local customers.
“Having a local MRO center will definitely change the situation for customers to have to fly to Spain for check,” he says. “We will have a much more capable local or regional MRO capability to serve our customers better.”
Indonesia’s PT Dirgantara Indonesia is currently the only aircraft parts manufacturer for the C235, but the company is not working with Airbus to ramp up its production capability and quality to be at the “level Airbus needed,” Schoellhorn adds.
“We need the right level of skills of the individuals, management skills, spare parts management,” he says. “There’s lots of things that are needed to come up with a functioning MRO organization. I’m not saying it’s not there, it’s just not maybe at the level that is needed for a supply chain that is so far from our hub.” /end