Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

vstol Jockey said:
Gen Panag seems to be on fire at all ends. No one has peddlled as much fake news as this Officer alone.
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Exactly sir! I thought that he does it because he is uncomfortable with the fact that LAC is being discussed in media a bit too much and we are not defending LAC. Some past military leaders also said that most of our narrative should be around Johnson line -- our claim. This is why I asked @Falcon about what is the general perception of LAC in IA.

But then recently I am beginning to think that Retd Col. Panag has some totally different motive because of his bizzaro claims

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This is his recent most hand annotated image.

He has mis-identified fingers. I think knowingly. Finger 8 (AFAIK) is more to the eastern side of the lake, nearer to Khurnak PLA post than ITBP post.

Also, I am not aware of ANY publicly disclosed LAC demarkation of LAC as claimed by India. Only think that I know and has been confirmed by @Falcon as well, is that it is the actual control in 1993.

Then here is the cake.

In a previous article, the same Retd Col shifted the our version of LAC eastward, aligning it with Indian claim of border.

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The guy, IMHO, is just throwing whatever comes to his mind (so long it is provoking) and hoping something sticks.
 
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Aurora said:
Chinese presently have enough troops to start a small skirmish and then they would have all the time to move their troops from inlands to the border thanks to their excellent infra. Plus the mobilisation is not halted and they are getting more and more aggressive for instance they tried to infiltrate in Sikkim yesterday.

Of course if China starts shooting then we will answer it with all our might. I am cent percent sure about our victory too. But then again it is same what I am saying that we would allow them to shoot. Because if we go by your theory then we should have attacked Pakistan by now.

Problem is, once PLAAF starts offensive against us then we would not have your 1 week and required resources to crush PAF.
The operation GAGANSHAKTI demonstrated our capability to quickly switch resources from Western border to eastern border and vice versa not what you have said which again proves the lack of resources required to crush PAF on one front and simultaneously holding against PLAAF on the other.

Yes, but we are not attacking see?
We won't do that. We lack the intent
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The Chinese will take a long time to come into Tibet from hundreds of Kms away.

Because if we go by your theory then we should have attacked Pakistan by now.
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Er... No. GA. WTC.
 
Quicksilver said:
some mod just cleared out messages from delaseeker just when I was having fun with him. no wonder this is how the army folks feel - just when we are having fun, the politicos go "no more fun - be civil".
adding @Ashwin so he can clear this out as well. but just wanted to put it out there.
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Not a good thread to have fun.

Please report when a thread goes off-topic. Don't feed trolls.
 
screambowl said:
You can't solely rely on firepower, because that's not the only thing which makes you win a skirmish, and those here who think it's ONLY military which wins a war, well they are fools. Big countries DO NOT engage in direct skirmish. They use third countries to shed their anger off. Simple Mahabharat trick. At least I expect professionals here to learn from their own scriptures before going outright when you have a doomed economy, pandemic all around and you are not sharing your part of pension or income knowing it will end up non-utilized as well. So before making big claims, ' hum yeh kardenge wo kardenge' look around you. There is a big social gap and one large scale skirmish will doom you to the core. What will India gain?

China has occupied all water resources in Tibet, they are thinking economically, and foolish military planners in India are thinking emotionally!! The lake in Aksai Chin , major area is within China, has any one ever thought why they are moving along the rivers and lakes? I am bl**dy damn sure, these foolish Indian military planners never thought so. They are just there to their 'moti buddhi'.

China will not stop at Aksai Chin, they are aiming for Nubra, Gangotri, , Upper Himalayas in Nepal and Glaciers in NE by using Pakistan to ruin Indian economy.
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yup thats where chinese are aiming, they have already done the same thing in mekong delta.
 
Aurora said:
It could be taken as a one view. But you could never be certain. For example after parliament attack there was clear cut intent to go for war and there was mobilisation for it. But it all turned into mere posturing. Now please don't reckon the reasons for it because that is exactly my point. You could never know when a posturing would turn into a war or a war mobilisation turn into mere posturing. It is true for this situation too, for various reasons.
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If you want to say that the world is uncertain, I whole heartedly agree. BTW, by the same token there could be massive nuclear exchanges between USA and China tomorrow and our problems may solve themselves. But thats not the position you take, right? Because that is not likely.
 
randomradio said:
The Chinese will take a long time to come into Tibet from hundreds of Kms away.



Er... No. GA. WTC.
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1- Not much. Their infra ensures that. Untill then their troops could hold.
2- What is GA?
As far as WTC is concerned then it is the command which is responsible for the management of Sino Indian border and it is the command which is presently mobilising Chinese troops on our borders.
 
Saaho said:
If you want to say that the world is uncertain, I whole heartedly agree. BTW, by the same token there could be massive nuclear exchanges between USA and China tomorrow and our problems may solve themselves. But thats not the position you take, right? Because that is not likely.
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May I digress a little and present my argument through some quantum theory??
According to quantum mechanics world is uncertain on which you agreed with me. And I agree with you that anything is possible even the scenario you have just presented. But the reason that I would not take it into account is the theory of relative probability of different possibilities. In this every event has a unique probability assigned to it through which we could measure the possibility of it's happening. Now the occurrence of the event you have just presented has extremely low probability, but the scenario of which I am talking about has very high probability. Because a posturing can easily result into a conflict by slightest of miscalculation but US China won't start nuking each other all of a sudden unless the leadership of at least one of them got mad which again has a very low probability. I hope it clears.
 
Aurora said:
According to quantum mechanics world is uncertain on which you agreed with me.
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Thats not what I meant. I meant, limited knowledge and complex political interactions. Quantum mechanics uncertainities are totally different beast. Geo-political uncertainties are unknowns, quantum uncertainties are unknowable. I avoid quoting "quantum mechanics" in almost any "real world" because beyond being flashy, they have no relation to almost anything we talk about in real world and especially business and politics.

Aurora said:
Now the occurrence of the event you have just presented has extremely low probability, but the scenario of which I am talking about has very high probability.
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The scenario of nuclear confrontation with USA that I presented has low probablity -- which was the entire point. That said, I don't know what makes you think that a military confrontation with China has "very high probablity".

shaxm said:
China is aiming till bodh gaya.
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No dear, China is aiming till Antarctica and is angry why India has not occupied territory from Kanyakumari till Antarctica. BTW, I wonder how does an Indian Muslim sitting in west-bengal has a direct communication with MSS and Xi Ding Dong?
 
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screambowl said:
China will not stop at Aksai Chin, they are aiming for Nubra, Gangotri, , Upper Himalayas in Nepal and Glaciers in NE by using Pakistan to ruin Indian economy.
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the only thing they managed to do is damage pakistani economy. have you seen it lately? begging saudis and chinese.
India has half a trillion forex reserves. not much effect Pakistan or China is having on the Indian economy.

as much as the Pakistanis want to see a decimated Indian economy, its just not in the works.
 
Quicksilver said:
the only thing they managed to do is damage pakistani economy. have you seen it lately? begging saudis and chinese.
India has half a trillion forex reserves. not much effect Pakistan or China is having on the Indian economy.

as much as the Pakistanis want to see a decimated Indian economy, its just not in the works.
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The economic ruin in Pakistan has little bearing with China. They faced mess when America was dumping money in them. Americans dumped money in Korea and Japan and Taiwan as well. They are doing really really really well.

BTW, when it comes to that, I don't count India as way way better than Pakistan. Our systems have very similar problems.
 
Saaho said:
The economic ruin in Pakistan has little bearing with China. They faced mess when America was dumping money in them. Americans dumped money in Korea and Japan and Taiwan as well. They are doing really really really well.
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they dint face a mess during the US regime their growth rate was much higher than it is now (it was also greater than India since we had the Nehru Indira growth rate)

BTW, when it comes to that, I don't count India as way way better than Pakistan. Our systems have very similar problems.
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We started with very similar problems. and for most part we did have the same. but the changes are showing results now. the growth will only get wider. You complain of India-China disparity. the India Pakistan disparity is much wider and growing at faster pace.
 
vstol Jockey said:
An Avalanche is not soft ice but bolders of Ice which are as hard as solid rock.


Seems what we discuss here are read by PLA also. Just a few days back we discussed this part about GB and BRI and how India can be more beneficial for China than Pakistan. If the so called offer is indeed true, than Chinese are willing to give us whole of POJK including GB but they are holding back POJK as part of negotiations.
IMHO, India should accept this provided this includes whole of POJK, GB, Aksai Chin and settlement of boundary with China all across LAC. Once that happens we can have a no-war pact with China and Pakistan. This will give lot of strength to China to settle its disputes with other nations and settle the Taiwan issue without fear of India joining the international coalition against them. China will get Taiwan in return for barren Aksai Chin and massive return on its investments on BRI beyond what they had ever imagined.

But Pakistan will never agree to this proposal and even if they agree to GB, they will never agree for POJK as the IB in that case will run over the mountain crest of western most range of Pir Panjal and after that heart of Punjab will be exposed to India.
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And why would china agree to such a proposal? What advantage India will provide that Pakistan won't provide with respect to GB. I am sorry but this thought is fan boyishism. Pakistan will never agree to this. If the myth in the army is broken then the Chinese Wont have any power control in Pakistan.
 
Vicky said:
And why would china agree to such a proposal? What advantage India will provide that Pakistan won't provide with respect to GB. I am sorry but this thought is fan boyishism. Pakistan will never agree to this. If the myth in the army is broken then the Chinese Wont have any power control in Pakistan.
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If you read in detail about CPEC, now Pakistan has only one source left for funds and that is China which also lent largest money to Pakistan. Today China is in a position to get anything that it wants from Pakistan otherwise it will make Pakistan bankrupt overnight. After that there will be no Pakistan. I request you to read some of the posts of @Falcon on this issue.
 
Saaho said:
Thats not what I meant. I meant, limited knowledge and complex political interactions. Quantum mechanics uncertainities are totally different beast. Geo-political uncertainties are unknowns, quantum uncertainties are unknowable. I avoid quoting "quantum mechanics" in almost any "real world" because beyond being flashy, they have no relation to almost anything we talk about in real world and especially business and politics.
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My use of Quantum Mechanics was for analogy. Now it doesn't matter that the uncertainties of QM differs from GP as I both cases some events are more probable than others. And that was my whole point. That is why I said that I won't take a sudden nuke war b/w US and China into account as it has too little probability to spend our time on. While the present posturing has a high probability to turn into a conflict.

Saaho said:
The scenario of nuclear confrontation with USA that I presented has low probablity -- which was the entire point. That said, I don't know what makes you think that a military confrontation with China has "very high probablity".
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There is a difference b/w military confrontation with China and turning of a posturing into conflict. If this posturing was happening with any other country then too the probability of conflict with that country would have become very high.
 
Aurora said:
If this posturing was happening with any other country then too the probability of conflict with that country would have become very high.
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China does posturing with almost all the countries around it. Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam etc. Seldom does it comes to war. US / USSR did posturing for 30+ years with almost no real conflict.
 
Saaho said:
China does posturing with almost all the countries around it. Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam etc. Seldom does it comes to war. US / USSR did posturing for 30+ years with almost no real conflict.
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1- Not of this level.
2- In US- USSR case it was different as both sides have explicitly said that any type of aggression by other would be met with nuclear retaliation. Hence they were content to not fight directly but indirectly.
In case of India and China use of nukes is a distinct possibility.
 
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