Israel, US Strike Iran After Weeks Of Warning, Explosions Heard In Tehran

[randomradio]

Europe gets its gas supply basically from US and Norwegian LNG pipeline, reducing their dependence on Russian gas, EU was not importing a lot of gas from Gulf. Canadians are rich in fossils, US is rich in fossils, China has secured it's supply in other states like Nigeria or Chile, Russians have abundance. Indians left with no choice. Maverick diplomacy and energy security policies by mole Dharmendra Pradhan the most crap minister the P&NG ministry ever got, and hoarding Indian oil mafia has doomed it as they did not let India free away dependence from Russia and Gulf oil as they get a lot of cut during the deal which delayed the project of 15MT/ year of CBG gas, otherwise there was no need to import LNG.

China depends on the ME for oil, 50% vs India's 25%. India depends on ME for gas, 60% vs China's 30%.

We can create alternatives better than the Chinese due to our smaller import volume and domestic production of LPG at higher prices.

Agree with CBG. But the problems are the CBG market is not fully developed. Mainly due to feedstock supplies and byproduct marketing.

 

[randomradio]

Thanks, I wasn't familiar with his work.
A quick AI poster board:

View attachment 50684

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Yeah. Based on the Western model, Into India, the divergence happened in 2000-1500 BC and that's what brought Sanskrit from Central Asia into India.

But DNA evidence suggests Indo-Aryan migration into India began in 4700 BC. So the Western model has now changed its theory to steppe pastoralists bringing Sanskrit and Vedic culture in 1500 BC.

DNA evidence shows Indo-Aryans entering in 4700 BC and steppe pastoralists in 1500 BC. But it's very likely that the Indo-Aryans migrated into an established civilization which was at the very least proto-Vedic and proto-Sanskrit already. It's because 65% of Indian ancestry is still from 60000 years ago, the first immigration, which implies the dominant population was much larger and more established.

So, that implies, after a few thousand years there was a split, and the losers went on to establish Zoroastrianism in Iran and the Vedic Mitanni Empire in the Syria. And access to Central Asia also gave them access to horses, so they were more into horses while we were into bulls, continuing our lineage from IVC.

Furthermore, IVC gods like Shiva and Mother Goddess have found their way into the Vedic pantheon, further cementing civilization continuity.

Plus Sanskrit is such a superior language that had someone outside India created it, they would have still continued using it today. It wouldn't have been India-centric.

A far more important clue is in the pole stars. In Vedic texts, Hindus worship Dhruva as the pole star, that's Thuban in the Draco constellation, which was the one between 3200-2600 BC whereas Zoroastrians worship the north star in the form of Ursa Major in 1500 BC. There wasn't a single pole star at that point, so the constellation acted as one. In 1500 BC, we also worshipped Ursa Major as the Saptarishis, but the pole star was Dhruva pointing to Thuban in Draco. We are continuing to use the name Dhruva for Polaris too. The Zoroastrians don't care about Thuban. Their lack of knowledge about it clues us into their age.

So the Out of India model makes far more sense.

 

[screambowl]

China depends on the ME for oil, 50% vs India's 25%. India depends on ME for gas, 60% vs China's 30%.

Not any more, even though they continue to buy from west Asia but they have secured their alternate resources already 7-9 years ago as emergency buffer not yet exploited, even if they don't have access to Gulf they can easily manage without it. China's national petroleum corporation has invested billions in Africa in the last 1.5 decades for LNG backup supply and also oil.

We can create alternatives better than the Chinese due to our smaller import volume and domestic production of LPG at higher prices.

Agree with CBG. But the problems are the CBG market is not fully developed. Mainly due to feedstock supplies and byproduct marketing.

Plans were there but during Dharmendra Pradhan's tenure a lot of things got delayed. He is an incompetent and illogical person.

 

[randomradio]

Not any more, even though they continue to buy from west Asia but they have secured their alternate resources already 7-9 years ago as emergency buffer not yet exploited, even if they don't have access to Gulf they can easily manage without it. China's national petroleum corporation has invested billions in Africa in the last 1.5 decades for LNG backup supply and also oil.

Both are very low today. I guess time will tell.

Plans were there but during Dharmendra Pradhan's tenure a lot of things got delayed. He is an incompetent and illogical person.

Maybe this crisis will give it new life.

 

[screambowl]

Both are very low today. I guess time will tell.

No they have already built 1950 km long pipeline from Niger to Benin's Terminal in Atlantic and have 65% stake in it.

More over Chinese have acquired major stake in Brazil's Pre Salt Sector and Ecuador's Sacha oil fields.

And in Nigeria they have already built a SORAZ refinery.

They have fully secured their energy supplies for another two decades without a worry just like Europeans and Americans.

Maybe this crisis will give it new life.

There was already a report warning about it in 2021 that it is time to secure all sorts of supply chain including energy. Work did start but without any good consistency due to fund allocation issues.

 

[Parthu]

This is pretty much what I think:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036495634178494697

Stored as liquid so it cannot be proliferated or stolen. Transported as solid.

In fact, if stored as solid, considering the current situation, they will just turn it back to liquid to make it impossible to steal anyway.

Is there any indication of Iranians actually doing this or are you hypothesizing? Because it would also increase the risk of accidental radiological incidents to their own personnel even if the sites aren't attacked/raided.

There was some circumstantial evidence (tire tracks seen through satellites) during last year's bombings that suggested Iran may have moved out at least some material from locations like Isfahan immediately prior to the strikes. If true, that would suggest the material is indeed kept as a solid...just in case it has to be relocated quickly again.

 

[randomradio]

No they have already built 1950 km long pipeline from Niger to Benin's Terminal in Atlantic and have 65% stake in it.

More over Chinese have acquired major stake in Brazil's Pre Salt Sector and Ecuador's Sacha oil fields.

And in Nigeria they have already built a SORAZ refinery.

They have fully secured their energy supplies for another two decades without a worry just like Europeans and Americans.

They haven't built enough to replace ME oil at those quantities though.

The Niger pipeline is for 90-110k bpd.

Brazil's was recently auctioned, it will take 5-10 years to get that going.

Ecuador, they are hoping for 100k bpd over 3 years.

These projects will take 10+ years to fully deliver.

From ME, they imported 5 mbpd. These tiny projects will not replace ME oil.

Otoh, the Chinese have lost more than 0.5 mbpd due to the loss of Venezuela. And Iran's supplies are lost too, at the moment, that's almost 1.5 mbpd. So 2 mbpd gone. Plus it doesn't look like the Americans will stop yet.

There was already a report warning about it in 2021 that it is time to secure all sorts of supply chain including energy. Work did start but without any good consistency due to fund allocation issues.

The overall project doesn't seem to be easy.

https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2175126&reg=3&lang=1

PM Modi lays foundation stone of BPCL's Rs. 90 crore CBG plant in Haryana

The plant is scheduled for completion by May 2027

www.indianchemicalnews.com

Overall, 132 functioning, 920 TPD. 82 under construction, 660 TPD. And some 1000+ with LoI.

So, yeah, still short of the 41000 TPD goal.

 

[randomradio]

This is pretty much what I think:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036495634178494697

\

Hope their invasion works out. I don't want the regime left to die on another day.

Is there any indication of Iranians actually doing this or are you hypothesizing? Because it would also increase the risk of accidental radiological incidents to their own personnel even if the sites aren't attacked/raided.

The actual risk is deadly but minimal for trained personnel. And the storage inside the facility itself will be safe even in liquid form. In fact, centrifuge uses the gaseous form.

The idea behind keeping it in liquid form is to make it impractical to move.

Accidents have occurred and there have been both injuries and deaths handling this stuff. 1 person died and 37 injured in Oklahoma when a cylinder rutured in 1986. It was 14.5T gaseous form.

Here are the dangers associated with it. And note this is for solid form.

https://resources.inmm.org/system/files/patram_proceedings/1986/381.PDF

There was some circumstantial evidence (tire tracks seen through satellites) during last year's bombings that suggested Iran may have moved out at least some material from locations like Isfahan immediately prior to the strikes. If true, that would suggest the material is indeed kept as a solid...just in case it has to be relocated quickly again.

It cannot be relocated quickly.

Plus even if it's stored in solid form, transportation requires first converting it to liquid, transfering to canister, and then back to solid.

If the SF have some secret technique to move it in a jiffy, then we wouldn't know about it. But I highly doubt it.

 

[BMD]

They had 60% enriched uranium in 2005 and stopped. And then they surrendered everything after the 2015 JCPOA.

So in 2018, they only had 123.9 kg or 3.67% enriched uranium. The JCPOA was successful in denuclearizing Iran.

https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/documents/gov2017-48.pdf

11. Iran has continued the enrichment of UF6 at FEP.15 Iran has not enriched uranium above 3.67%U-235 (para. 28).

12. Throughout the reporting period, Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile has not exceeded 300 kg of UF6 enriched up to 3.67% U-235 (or the equivalent in different chemical forms) (para. 56).The quantity of 300 kg of UF6 corresponds to 202.8 kg of uranium.16

13. As of 5 November 2017, the quantity of Iran’s uranium enriched up to 3.67% U-235 was 96.7 kg,17 based on the JCPOA and decisions of the Joint Commission.18

So Iran was completely denuclearized at that point. As per the agreement, they could enrich only in Natanz, not Fordow. But after Trump quit JCPOA, the Iranians activated Fordow.

Nope. They kept their underground facilities, expanded centrifuge capacity in a way that was unnecessary for civilian nuclear and started constructing an extra underground facility, so that they could immediately build a bomb as soon as they had the designs worked out/stolen.

Any legitimate nuclear agreement needs to see Natanz and the other underground site dismantled and filled with concrete. They should be allowed only enough centrifuges to sustain a civilian nuclear program and they should be surface-based only.

They didn't have anything before 2021 after JCPOA, confirmed by IAEA inspections.

You still don't get it, the site itself is a nuclear program. 100m underground enrichment facilities buried in mountains aren't civilian. Neither is that many centrifuges.

 

[screambowl]

They haven't built enough to replace ME oil at those quantities though.

The Niger pipeline is for 90-110k bpd.

Brazil's was recently auctioned, it will take 5-10 years to get that going.

Ecuador, they are hoping for 100k bpd over 3 years.

These projects will take 10+ years to fully deliver.

From ME, they imported 5 mbpd. These tiny projects will not replace ME oil.

Otoh, the Chinese have lost more than 0.5 mbpd due to the loss of Venezuela. And Iran's supplies are lost too, at the moment, that's almost 1.5 mbpd. So 2 mbpd gone. Plus it doesn't look like the Americans will stop yet.

As an Indian if I write Chinese have been able to replace more than half of their imports away from west Asia giving them very good energy security status in current times compared to India, rest can be compensated with other means like bio fuels too. I am pointing towards their efforts to have their own oil companies refining in some second country. Plus they have also secured many oil fields in South China Sea, Bohai, countries like Chad, Mozambique. It's their strategic reserve in case of extreme emergency.

India on other hand trying to get rid of all crude oil which will take don't know how many years more, India had the time but wasted it. Tragedy will not wait for India to be fully ready to bear all pressure.

 

[BMD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036591568736424028

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036556934065590312

 

[_Anonymous_]

Thanks, I wasn't familiar with his work.
A quick AI poster board:

View attachment 50684

View attachment 50685

It's postulated that a certain people called Iranian Neolithic from around the Zagros Mountains are responsible for a significant amount of gene inflow into the IVC population . They're supposed to have ingressed into the IVC anywhere from 8000-6000 YBP ( Years Before Present ) .

This group also has Anatolian Neolithic DNA. Now the thing is there are no extant samples from India from around the same time to verify this postulate.

There's a Twitter handle I follow who used to be active there but has ceased being so for some time. He also has a blog wherein he discusses the ancestry of ancient Indians & much more on this topic. This handle is of the opinion that this Iranian Neolithic group inhabited a vast landscape extending from the Indo Gangetic Plains all the way upto the Zagros Mountains where as of now the only archaeo genetic samples we have are from Iran. Hence the name Iranian N .


A lot of what I've put out is from his feed though truth be told I haven't studied the issue in granular detail . Sometimes the technical terms discussed does fly over my head . Besides ancient genetics itself is an evolving field. Most of the findings & conclusions reported around 2 decades are repudiated by the current lot working in this field .

Moreover I've coming around to the PoV that for one to have conclusive answers to the issue of ancestry , one needs samples of both sexes from site A , at an interval of 1 century for comparison to site B - the purported recipient of that gene flow following the same conditions as listed for site A.

It's impossible for one to get these conditions. Hence archaeo geneticists resort to what's known as proxy populations who inhabit say site C which though similar is not the same as site A & may or may not be in close proximity to site A & further may or may not be of the same vintage.

Archaeo genetics then is just one more tool & not the definitive tool to identify ancestry as their fervent supporters claim & more importantly can't be deployed to establish the genetic origins of any civilization beyond reasonable doubt. Generally speaking it can be corroborating evidence though in some cases it may well be clinching evidence provided the conditions I've listed above are met.

Feel free to check him out if interested.

https://x.com/agenetics1?t=bwIA5XbHzC80y8gBt92dLw&s=09

The Mittanis show zero connection with the Zoroastrians or Zoroastrianism . Whatever evidence we have suggests they were Indo Aryans.

And since we have definitive evidence of their presence in Anatolia in the mid 2nd millennium BCE , it stands to reason that the split in the Indo Iranic religion either succeeded them or that Zoroastrianism as we know it today was founded by Zoroaster in the future.


As far as the pole star debate goes I've not much information about it nor is it a topic I've looked at cursorily or otherwise but this is what Gemini has to say .

Google Search

Google Search

The Pole Star incidentally is Ursa Minoris. I used to think AI is what would redeem ethnicities like the Paddys. No such luck. AI needs to be much more sophisticated to aid them.

Likewise AI is the best story teller in the biz. Like coding coolies , animators , call center coolies even porn stars etc , the professional story teller will soon be a thing of the past.

 

[Soldier35]

Iranian-backed groups in Iraq carried out their first FPV drone strike on US military equipment at the Victory Air Base in Baghdad. It's worth noting that the military equipment and personnel were removed from the base. The FPV drones also struck a US AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel radar and a UH-60 helicopter.

 

[randomradio]

Nope. They kept their underground facilities, expanded centrifuge capacity in a way that was unnecessary for civilian nuclear and started constructing an extra underground facility, so that they could immediately build a bomb as soon as they had the designs worked out/stolen.

Any legitimate nuclear agreement needs to see Natanz and the other underground site dismantled and filled with concrete. They should be allowed only enough centrifuges to sustain a civilian nuclear program and they should be surface-based only.

You still don't get it, the site itself is a nuclear program. 100m underground enrichment facilities buried in mountains aren't civilian. Neither is that many centrifuges.

America does not have the credibility for such things. The JCPOA agreement was only for 15 years, pending a future agreement based on mutual trust.

If you want all that you stated, then Isreal would also have to denuclearize simultaneously. No nukes for anybody.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Insured complicity: 76% of Russia’s LNG exports carried on UK owned or insured vessels since invasion​

Insured complicity: 76% of Russia's LNG exports carried on UK owned or insured vessels since invasion – Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

energyandcleanair.org

The old Perfidious Albion tactic of running with the hare & hunting with the hound continues , eh Paddy ?

After all what's a Briton who doesn't profit from someone's misery.

 

[randomradio]

As an Indian if I write Chinese have been able to replace more than half of their imports away from west Asia giving them very good energy security status in current times compared to India, rest can be compensated with other means like bio fuels too. I am pointing towards their efforts to have their own oil companies refining in some second country. Plus they have also secured many oil fields in South China Sea, Bohai, countries like Chad, Mozambique. It's their strategic reserve in case of extreme emergency.

India on other hand trying to get rid of all crude oil which will take don't know how many years more, India had the time but wasted it. Tragedy will not wait for India to be fully ready to bear all pressure.

I think both our situations are different. The Americans see the Chinese as a threat, so they are working with a different goal in mind relative to India.

We do not need the same volumes either. Our domestic consumption is 4.7 mbpd today, will rise to 5.6 mbpd by 2030, and around 7.5 mbpd by 2040. Surplus will exported, at least 3.5 mbpd by 2030, up from 1.2 mbpd today.

We can easily get 2-3 mbpd from Russia and 1 each from US and UAE, without being exposed to Hormuz. So that's 4-5 mbpd already. And we can get another 2 mbpd via the Cape of Good Hope. And we have half a million to a million bpd domestic production. That's easily 7-9 mbpd without the supplies being threatened. Only 2 mbpd via Hormuz is under threat, but some can be bypassed via Saudi's Yanbu in the Red Sea over time.

LPG, we can produce on our own. Domestic production has gone up from 40% to 60% in the last 2 weeks.

LNG is the only supply under threat from Hormuz. But our domestic production secures city distribution. Out of 70+ bcm, we only use 12 bcm in cities.

Let's see how biogas and other alternatives work out here. The future will belong to ammonia and green hydrogen.

 

[randomradio]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036556934065590312

Won't work. It's one-sided. Best to invade.

 

[randomradio]

Zoroastrianism (Gathas), Indo-Iranians = 1500 BC... Vedic ancestry. Possibly 2000-1500 BC immigration. Oral tradition.
Zarathustra = 600 BC... Discards Vedic ancestry... Ahura Mazda created. Zarathustra pretends to be the writer of the Gathas.

Thuban = 3200-2800 BC. Vedic Hinduism.
Ursa Minor, Kochab, Pherkad = 1500 BC. Prime constellation was Ursa Major for humanity.
Ursa Minor, Kochab = 300 BC.
Ursa Minor, Polaris = 500 AD. Puranic Hinduism.

In 1500 BC, Ursa Major was used to find the imaginary point between Kochab and Pherkad, so it was used for navigation. Essentially, Ursa Major was a replacement for the pole star. No star was present at the pole during this time. This lasted from 1700 BC to 300 BC, until Kochab became available at the pole. Religions used Ursa Major to locate Polaris. Thinking is a privilege.

 

[BMD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036781781647491430

 

[BMD]

Won't work. It's one-sided. Best to invade.

I actually agree with those points - points 4 and especially 5 are the most important, nobody will agree that Iran has abandoned its nuclear weapons program until that happens. If Iran is serious about not having nuclear weapons it shouldn't cause them issues.

Land-Based Marine Corps F-35Cs Are Now Moving Towards The Middle East

The F-35Cs, operating from land bases, look set to join a Marine combat capability that is about to balloon in size in the Middle East. The F-35Cs, operating from land bases, look set to join a Marine combat capability that is about to balloon in size in the Middle East.

www.twz.com