Whether China will have enough oil for a war is also questionable at this rate.
Israel, US Strike Iran After Weeks Of Warning, Explosions Heard In Tehran
- Thread starter Ashwin
- Start date
No offense but comparing Iranian missiles to Chinese missiles is like comparing a Corolla to a BMX X7. Chinese missiles are way superior. But the US has loads of missiles as well, not as much as China but enough of them with enough range and reach to blow Chinese factories producing fighter jets and missiles to smithereens. And the US can always replenish its stocks cuz it's factories are on the other side of the world where only Chinese nuclear missiles can reach, whereas Chinese factories are all within range of American, Korean and Japanese missiles.
I doubt US could stop most of China's missiles but it doesn't have to, it just has to send waves of Tomahawks and Barracudas and other missiles to destroy their factories and also to starve them of oil by sinking their tankers. But the US will lose a huge number of troops, thousands in the first month. Eventually it will win but will its people be willing to wait for that eventuality? That is the question.
If China attacks US bases first along with attacking Taiwan, then its over. Americans at home will support the war full steam and China will eventually falter.
They will try to stockpile but they can stockpile only so much and not to mention their oil storage facilities can also come under attack by Tomahawks and other US assets!!!! Man the US is so goddamn lucky with that goddamn geography, surrounded by 2 entire oceans and incompetent neighbors. Poor old China like all the other enemies of unkill has its enemies right at its doorstep.
The only way for China to sort of 'win' taiwan is for them to blockade it and force it to surrender and accept the one country 2 system governance model. Even this will completely change the country as in FDI will start flowing out at extreme pace. The best thng for china is to just wait for taiwan to come back but with all the BS they've been pulling taiwan is only going furthur and furthur away rather than closer.
A full scale battle for taiwan will be catastrophic for china and its economy on a scale that only the world wars and maybe the napoleonic and anglo-spanish wars were.
If they blockade Taiwan, US has some options to put the dragon in a sticky situation. One, deliver stuff to Taiwan by air. Well oil can't be delivered but food, supplies etc can be. If China shoots down American aircraft, they will get cucked badly. 2, do nothing but not likely US will do this.
But a full scale war with US will be bad for China and definitely the world as the world economy's will literally go into a great depression like in 1929, but maybe not US cuz their arms industry will explode once again like it did during WW2. Perhaps the west will accelerate moving factories to Vietnam, Mexico etc with some coming to India as well. But China will be hurt very badly, its "superpower" image will be shattered and its people who were smug of replacing the US will contend with being bombed by America like how weak, unstable hell holes like Iran or Libya were bombed. US will lose many troops but Americans in the mainland otherwise will be chilling (well higher prices and a tanked economy will ruin many but they wont be getting bombed).
Turkey's aerospace industry was developed by the US, Iran received no such help from anyone. They received missile tech from NoKo via China so they developed their BM forces via that, and that contributed to the development of their ADS along with Russian help in radar tech. In any case guided munitions won't work if you don't have intelligence gathering capabilities.
The Shaheds have been used to great effect against static targets.
Now this is interesting. Is it Akash AD or Barak & which country...
UAE operates Barak 8, so...
Unlike Ukraine, things are moving too fast in Iran. Russia was in the process of fulfilling contracts for Iran's modernization, 48 Su-35s and a few regiments of S-400 before the war began. Russia otoh took things really slow in Ukraine, which allowed NATO to send weapons, after many, many months of fighting.
Chinese supplied HQ-9s seem to have failed, although the Chinese have denied supplying it.
Reports say both countries sent supplies to Iran before the war began.
It's still the early days. Weapons can be sent only if the Iranians actually fight back in a consistent manner, like the Ukrainians did.
The iranian capacity to block Ormuz are declining fastly.
In a couple of days USN will take control of it and the flow will be re opened.
Iran virtually has no moe air force, nearly no more navy, and the ground forces are freezed.
The chinese SAM and radars already failed in Venezuela. May be not only due to technical reasons...
The only thing China lacks today is a navy on par with the US. When that day comes, 2035, you will see them behaving like rogues too.
That's why we have just 2030-35 to permanently deal with Pakistan. Or else a massive Chinese fleet's gonna park itself in the Arabian Sea right next to us.
As for Taiwan, to be fair, China to Taiwan cannot be paved like the route to Mandya.
Over two years. So 2021.
So you're saying Muslims haven't taken over university campuses and streets in the West in protests over Gaza?
They cooperated in Syria against Iran. I've pointed this out multiple times years ago.
Try your Qatari and Yemeni friends.
Sure. Israel backstabbed Russia in Syria. Both sides have chosen political sides not related to each other, but still maintain a "special relationship." Anyway you are way too hung up on what the media says, and this explains the current situation in the UK.
This drone was sold so Israel could coordinate with Russia in Syria. Secret defense relations stopped in 2016 due to US pressure.
There, all your arguments dead on arrival.
Ships, lots and lots of ships, with lots and lots of DEW, all firing away in the good weather of the invasion.
The Japanese also have a cheap 100 kg command guidance using SAM called Type 11.
Kangress story.
One of my parents are indeed from Mandya (born but not brought up), damn this comment is gonna have me looking over my shoulder for quite some time now!!!!!! randomradio was absent all this time cuz he was spying on this humble student!!The only thing China lacks today is a navy on par with the US. When that day comes, 2035, you will see them behaving like rogues too.
That's why we have just 2030-35 to permanently deal with Pakistan. Or else a massive Chinese fleet's gonna park itself in the Arabian Sea right next to us.
As for Taiwan, to be fair, China to Taiwan cannot be paved like the route to Mandya.
Wtr to the Chinese, me no think they will have a permanent fleet in IOR by 2035. Only real way PLAN can threaten IN in IOR is to send aircraft carrier preferably nuclear cuz their conventional carriers wont pose much threat to IN supremacy in IOR, and it will take China beyond 2035 to operationalize 2 nuclear carriers, their first nuclear carrier will be used to further strengthen their position at SCS and first island chain.
But by 2040 yea I am very sure PLAN will have one nuclear carrier strike group permanently stationed in IOR. A pacing problem for India but by then I am quite sure LRHASM will be in mass production and our ISR capabilities across sea air and space would have grown by leaps and bounds. So in a war like situation, their carrier group cannot realistically come within 1,500 km at least to our mainland and Andaman else they will face the risk of LRHASM, Brahmos, SMART, Agni P etc. Not to mention our SSNs and Project 18 destroyers will start coming online by then to supplement our new P75I SSKs.
So PLAN gaining the total supremacy it needs in IOR to thwart an Indian attack on Pak is unfeasable.
US used some 150 THAAD interceptors and some 80 SM-3s last year (June 2025).
We will see, how much they will spend this time.
We will see, how much they will spend this time.
They had some plans to produce thousands per year no? Or was that the Patriots?
Also PLAAF is quite behind USAF, they have not operationalized their H20 stealth bomber for eg. The gap by 2035 would have closed considerably yes, but it is still quite big today when it comes to long range strike capability.The only thing China lacks today is a navy on par with the US. When that day comes, 2035, you will see them behaving like rogues too.
That's why we have just 2030-35 to permanently deal with Pakistan. Or else a massive Chinese fleet's gonna park itself in the Arabian Sea right next to us.
As for Taiwan, to be fair, China to Taiwan cannot be paved like the route to Mandya.
China produces ~ 25% of it's oil in house Paddy. As far as the rest of its needs go , why do you think they're going electric with a vengeance ?
Here's what Google AI has to say -
So apart from ATF for their civil airliner & obviously for their armed forces , consumption of oil will be naturally limited .
Hate to break this to you Paddy but wth , you're a old pal. Why don't you deploy AI to make all your posts here ? That way you come across as intelligent to the newbies here , saves your limited intellect much stress & strain thus leaving it fresh for daily chores like pissing in the kitchen sink & washing your face in the commode.
THAAD and SM-3 production was always low. only PAC-3 has somewhat healthy production line.
Production will increase but it will take time to fill in the gaps, especially after current conflict.
Neither of those equations favour the US/Allies. I've gone over some of the details regarding China's industrial capabilities in another thread, read my replies from the linked post onwards:
Taiwan - China Brewing Conflict : Discussions
Pretty big development. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-building-fleet-of-special-barges-suitable-for-taiwan-landings/ This new ship design is meant to navigate around the lack of landing beaches in Taiwan. Difficult to invade during Trump's era though. The last...www.strategicfront.org
Any effort to resupply/rebuild US/Allied infrastructure along the First or Second Chain involves a logistics tail that spans the width of the Pacific. China's logistics are right there.
As I said, in order to make China pay a similar price vis-a-vis the damage they could do in that timeframe, the US will need capabilities that can impose an overwhelming air superiority over mainland China within the first few days. That capability doesn't exist because sortie rates of F-22s & F-35s will plummet once First Chain bases are under saturation strikes. No sustained sortie generation = no air superiority.
Only way to sustain that sortie rate is with planes that are: 1) Capable of operating from bases farther out, and 2) Are available in sufficient numbers to generate enough sorties.
That means building up a large enough fleet of F-47 and B-21. The B-2 will still be able to penetrate but there's too few of those airframes. There's a reason why they want ~100+ B21s.
And then there's the fact that unlike Iran, China actually possesses the ISR capabilities needed to properly target moving Carriers.
It depends on the timeframe you are referring to. China does not have the ability today, but by the time they do, the other side will be ready too. China needs to aim for parity before going to war with the US.
Due to the presence of Taiwan, the Chinese need to exert more pressure compared to the Allies spanning from the north of Japan to the south of the Philippines. PLAAF and PLAN are split into two while the Allies are not. So while Taiwan is closer to China, the Chinese also have other issues to deal with.
Anyway the combination of Taiwan's defense strategy success and 2 hardline govts in the US and Japan, the already delayed Taiwan invasion plan has been further delayed. The Chinese are unlikely to attack anytime during Trump's administration now.