This was expected. They will make more diplomatic relations where India has strong hold.
It's quite the opposite. Saudi-pak has been the stronghold of paks diplomatic space where India enhanced relations. The stronghold we assume to be of India's are actually historically been paks stronghold where we are increasingly countering them and building better relations.
Let's see.. whom we likely presume as our stronghold:
1. USA : Deep ties with Pakistan with active cooperation and military assistance as recent as 2016. Only after that did we see that relationship falter. The deep state ties likely to be still present.
2. Saudi: Has funded Pakistan through informal and formal loans amounting to billions and billions of dollars. Pak trains saudi soldiers. Saudi funded key military needs of pak. Islam playing big narrative role there. Only in last decade or two, there has been increase in partnership b/w India & saudi through trade and investment. (No military)
3. China: 1962 war. Pak giving aksai chin and it's role as messenger b/w US&PRC during cold war. Considered as our rival ( by us) so different diplomacy altogether.
4. Japan,Sk and other Pacific Islands: China-centric with little to do with pak or its inability to meddle in it. Strategic needs coincides.
5. Srilanka, Nepal, Bangladesh: The most believes to be our stronghold. But reality is that while people to people ties remained well..
2008 left establishment was inclined away from India given that even indian leftist are often inclined against India as an entity . Nepal was widely used by ISI and even kandhar happened from there but that's security angle. It had also always maintained particularly good relationship with Pakistan, sometimes favoring them in SAARC to counter India. It only changed after SAARC got sidelined and India's strong anti pak stance from then that nepal had to pivot towards China. Recent upheavals and more to come, part of wider deliberations. Status quo maintained with diplomacy not pak centric anymore.
Srilanka: the biggest misconception, srilanka assisted pakistan during 1971, RGs use of peace keeping force further deteriorated relationship and the civil war in srilanka further strained ties. That was also the time when Chinese with pak help made huge inroads in their diplomatic domain. Only after 2016, the change of rajapaksa govt, there was limited increase in diplomatic warmth due to BRI amd was solidified only after the economic crisis of srilanka and India's rapid response. That was the moment when India actually made inroads into srilanka with goodwill and created a positive presence there.
Amid increasing US trade tariffs imposed on India, a Sri Lankan MP stood firm in support of New Delhi. In the parliament, he said, “Don’t laugh at India. Don’t mock them when they are down because when we were down, they were the only ones to lend us a hand.”
www.wionews.com
Some articles from yesteryears I found on Google randomly.
CommentaryBehind The Sri Lankan BloodbathBrahma Chellaney, 10.09.09 ForbesColombo’s victory over the Tamils shows India’s power on the wane.Thousands of noncombatants, according to the …
chellaney.net
A quarter century on, India’s military involvement in Sri Lanka remains relevant as a lesson in poor leadership in contrast to the 1971 war to liberate East Pakistan
www.thehindu.com
The two-day visit to Colombo, during which Imran Khan and Sri Lankan Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa discussed cooperation across a variety of strategic areas, signifies Islamabad’s intention to work with Sri Lanka for expanded political, security, and economic partnerships in the Southern...
www.stimson.org
www.vifindia.org
Many more, just need a quick search.
Bangladesh: Former East Pakistan. While got independence, the pro pak people didn't emigrate. History of bad ties with India, even after 1971 with radical leaders ( opposition party of hasina) maintaining anti-india stance.
UPA didn't have good relationship with Hasina despite her having more friendly attitude towards India. That was the time when UPA ministers had better relations with Pakistan.
Only got better after bangladesh-India border exchange was ratified in 2015. Thats govt to govt ties. People to people ties with bangladesh were never good and were more of radicalism exchange than economic and cultural prosperity like nepal.
So, hasinas period was an aberration becoz of hasina. Not our diplomatic stronghold. Even after 1971. It now goes back to previous nature of Bangladesh with yunus and radicals.
Internal vote bank politics and hasinas hate of radicals was just one roadblock.
Myanmar, Vietnam: was never a stronghold of either india or pak. Largely influenced by cold war era communism and US invasion of vietnam. China's aggressiveness in SCS has opened a small opening there but requires india to have strong navy to build better diplomatic relations. ASEAN FTA already proving to be costly and undergoing review. So, military diplomacy is the key there.
EU& Canada: Do I need to say more? Barring France, most of EU followed USA and provided pak with ample resources that it used against India. Not a stronghold and can be found as a hub for anti-india voices more than pro-india in past. Pick any publication from there, to get an idea. Colonial complex.
Only after 2020 Ukraine-russia war, subsequent pressure by US& lecture by EU and India's hard stance and Jaishankar's public rebuttals and unveiling of India's multi alignment evolution, supply chain issues arising out of Covid chain.. did EU revised it's strategy from lecturing to talking.
After then only will you see increased reciprocal diplomatic presence and exchanges on equal terms. Still ongoing and strengthening. Work in progress.. UK FTA, EFTA deal, and talks with EU. With EU itself going thru issues of its own, Indian diplomacy has done well while more gets done. Jaishankar also focused heavily on europe after 2024 with his tour.
So, never a stronghold or even positive. Recent trends shows promise.
Did I miss anyone?
