Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates

RISING SUN

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Dec 3, 2017
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I wonder what will be the duration of this project. If the duration is the similar to the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), from 2020-2025, then we will be spending US$ (1.35 + 1.4) = US$ 2.75 trillion with in 5-6 years.

That's some serious investment. That's almost the size of India's nominal GDP. Admittedly I don't understand economics, so let me ask this. Where will we get this massive amount of money ? Loans from foreign banks ? That doesn't sound like a great plan.

Also doesn't this new "Gati Shakti" mission overlap with the NIP ? Why do we need 2 separate projects of this size ?

@Ashwin @Nilgiri @_Anonymous_ @randomradio et al.
 
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RISING SUN

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India on Track to Post World-Beating Growth as Spending Revives​

India is set to regain its position as the world’s fastest growing major economy this year, but any euphoria is likely to be tempered by concerns around a resurgent virus outbreak.

Gross domestic product will grow 9.2% in the fiscal year ending March 2022, according to the first official estimate released by the Statistics Ministry Friday. That’s slightly slower than a 9.5% expansion forecast by the Reserve Bank of India as well as the economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

With one quarter still left in the fiscal year and parts of the economy already facing fresh curbs to stem the omicron variant, the estimate will likely undergo revisions. The uncertainty spawned by the pandemic has so far kept fiscal and monetary policies accommodative to aid the a durable recovery, even as global peers have begun dialing back stimulus measures to combat inflation.

A sustained pace of growth is key to attracting investors to India, which is in the midst of a massive privatization drive, besides boosting manufacturing and creating jobs.

India will be the world's fastest growing economy this year



“We do have pockets of revenge demand coming in spurts but consumption still needs some hand-holding,” said Shubhada Rao, founder at QuantEco Research in Mumbai, who reckons that the impact of India’s ongoing third virus wave may have been factored in these estimates. “We are looking at 7.5% growth next year.”

Digging Deeper​

  • Gross value added, a key input of GDP that strips out the impact of taxes on products, is seen increasing 8.6%. Manufacturing output is estimated to rise 12.5%, while mining sector is seen expanding 14.3%. Agriculture, which provided some cushion to the economy last year, is projected to grow 3.9%
  • Gross fixed capital formation, a proxy for investment, is forecast to increase 15%, whereas government spending is seen increasing 7.6%. The ministry sees a 6.9% jump in consumption as pent-up demand drove sales
  • The growth numbers, which benefit from last year’s sharp contraction, will serve as a key input to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s annual federal budget, due to be presented next month
  • India’s growth is seen moderating to 8.5% next year, according to a forecast by the International Monetary Fund released in October
— With assistance by Tomoko Sato
 

STEPHEN COHEN

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Dec 4, 2017
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randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
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India

This will put a BRAKE on Arms imports as well

@Ashwin @_Anonymous_
@randomradio @vstol Jockey

That doesn't affect the govt. It only affects the corporate sector, and they will just refinance it.
 

_Anonymous_

Senior Member
Banned
Dec 4, 2017
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This will put a BRAKE on Arms imports as well

@Ashwin @_Anonymous_
@randomradio @vstol Jockey
 
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STEPHEN COHEN

Senior member
Dec 4, 2017
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That doesn't affect the govt. It only affects the corporate sector, and they will just refinance it.

Some part of NRI deposits would
Also be maturing

The real problem is that US interest rates will go up from March onwards and US FED will raise interest rates 4 times this year

This is because of high inflation

Now that will put pressure on the Rupee. It will need RBI intervention ,both by selling dollars and raising interest rates

Commodity prices , trade deficit are already high

Once Interest rates go up , corporate Refinance will be affected
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
14,102
10,617
India
Some part of NRI deposits would
Also be maturing

The real problem is that US interest rates will go up from March onwards and US FED will raise interest rates 4 times this year

This is because of high inflation

Now that will put pressure on the Rupee. It will need RBI intervention ,both by selling dollars and raising interest rates

Commodity prices , trade deficit are already high

Once Interest rates go up , corporate Refinance will be affected

For the corporates, refinancing their loans is still cheaper than paying it all off even with higher interest rates in the US.
 

Ankit Kumar

Team StratFront
Nov 30, 2017
3,613
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Bangalore
We should maybe give a one year tax break on importing machinery required for textile industry.

This one industry is where by dominating it we can dominate all of South Asia.
 

Tatvamasi

Senior member
Jan 5, 2018
1,108
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India
Two biggest failures of the Modi government.
  • This is 2022, Farmer income did not double. They went back on every initiative they took.
  • Make in India, Share of manufacturing actually reduced from 16% (target was to reach 25%)
 

Ankit Kumar

Team StratFront
Nov 30, 2017
3,613
3,475
Bangalore
Two biggest failures of the Modi government.
  • This is 2022, Farmer income did not double. They went back on every initiative they took.
  • Make in India, Share of manufacturing actually reduced from 16% (target was to reach 25%)
We want FTA with leading economies. There is no way farming as it is now is viable under this circumstance. The only way out is farming on industrial scale. Small scale intensive farming will never be profitable for farmers. It's impossible. Never happened anywhere else in the world. Won't happen here.
 

Ankit Kumar

Team StratFront
Nov 30, 2017
3,613
3,475
Bangalore
On manufacturing, GST still needs a lot of work. Other barriers in imports need to worked upon. Energy and land is a problem too. We are working on transportation but as it is now, it's a problem too. A very large amount of funds is wasted which could be used to galvanize businesses.