India vs China - War Gaming Scenarios : Related News , Updates , Discussions & Analysis .

Ytube has been infested by a lot of Chinese bots who are part of the information/psychological warfare strategy of China. As Gen Shukla said, China intends to fight in 7 domains of which information/psychology is a key part.


As for IACCS until AD AH and Kusha are ready we don't have much defence against DF ZF and other hypersonic missiles that China fields. So Kusha and AD AH must be accelerated. As should be our space situational awareness systems to identify and track hypersonic projectiles.
Kusha & the other ADS you've mentioned aren't coming before 2030-32 possibly later. This is the reason talks about us procuring 3 more regiments of S-400 / S-500 along with local mfg / MRO has been doing the rounds in the media.

As far as space based ISR assets go while the SBS program is a step in the right direction though the scale small & the time lines extended ( due to be curtailed if media reports are to be believed ) the biggest danger lies in the fact that the NAVIC system is performing well below expectations with most of the satellites having being rendered dysfunctional & the ones functioning are either sup par or on the verge of being towards the end of their service life or both.

It gets better . As of now there seems to be no plans for their replacements or at least none in the public domain.
 
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I believe India's in the process of implementing this strategy. The IACCS & the various individual grid networks of the different arms of the armed forces is evidence of it .

We've covered considerable ground & there's a lot more ground to be covered though the extent of what we've accomplished with respect to what's mentioned in the report & what we're executing besides planning to execute in the future is unknown.

The level of secrecy is such that forget Indian sources none of the multitude of TTs infesting the West have come up with even a preliminary analysis of the IACCS. They seem to have bought into PAF > IAF wholesale which suits us just fine.

Unfortunately for us, the PLAAF hasn't & the more we engage with PAF the more the former will be able to study the IACCS & come up with solutions when we go up against them. This is another compelling reason we should've finished the job during our engagement between 7-10th May itself.

@Jaymax ; @Rajput Lion ; @vstol Jockey et al

While we're on the topic here's a mini documentary on China's attempts at dual use infrastructure on their side of the LAC. Do go thru the comments. It's been completely infested by Wumaos.

IAF is going to deploy PCLR en masse. That will help them hunt down all VLO threats from west or north.
 
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It's been completely infested by Wumaos.
Which place hasn't been? There are places where they do not even need to act. Pakistani and Bangladeshi citizens actively take up white or chinese usernames and regularly do work for them for free when it comes to ensuring that the BRI agenda or Chinese defence industry has ample online support. However, as you will note these do not translate to weapon sales or for that matter no country looks up to China to be a net security provider.
 
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Kusha & the other ADS you've mentioned aren't coming before 2030-32 possibly later. This is the reason talks about us procuring 3 more regiments of S-400 / S-500 along with local mfg / MRO has been doing the rounds in the media.

As far as space based ISR assets go while the SBS program is a step in the right direction though the scale small & the time lines extended ( due to be curtailed if media reports are to be believed ) the biggest danger lies in the fact that the NAVIC system is performing well below expectations with most of the satellites having being rendered dysfunctional & the ones functioning are either sup par or on the verge of being towards the end of their service life or both.

It gets better . As of now there seems to be no plans for their replacements or at least none in the public domain.
Their replacement is called NVS satellites, of which 2 have been launched, 1 is operational, another failed in Jan 2025. The rest 4 will get launched by 2029 supposedly.

Against China uncle ji will 100% let us use GPS for missiles and other stuff. So while NAVIC is important more important is actually strengthening our ability to detect and track HGV and missiles. We now have the radars for it, but our space based ISR for it must improve by leaps.

BTW what are these reports of SBS being curtailed? The plan was always 52 sats in 2 years right?
 
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Their replacement is called NVS satellites, of which 2 have been launched, 1 is operational, another failed in Jan 2025. The rest 4 will get launched by 2029 supposedly.
2029 is too late. By 2029 we need a minimum of 1 to a max of 2 dozen NAVIC satellite in an orbital constellation if we've to provide guidance to our missiles from the extreme east & north coast of China to Gwadar in the west & everything in between.
Against China uncle ji will 100% let us use GPS for missiles and other stuff.
I wouldn't risk reliance on anybody least of all the Americans irrespective whom we're going up against. What if it's a two front war & US permits usage only on our Eastern Front which they're well capable of doing given their past record ?

So while NAVIC is important more important is actually strengthening our ability to detect and track HGV and missiles. We now have the radars for it, but our space based ISR for it must improve by leaps.

BTW what are these reports of SBS being curtailed? The plan was always 52 sats in 2 years right?
The time lines of the launch of those 52 satellites have been collapsed from 2028 to late 2026 . No clue if it will hold but I reckon with those GoI guidelines in place for these contractors even if we achieve launch of all these satellites by end 2027 it'd be a huge achievement.

What we need is another contract for 50-75 satellites to be inked within a year from now with the deadline for all the launches to be effected by end 2019. Difficult but doable with the right planning & logistics.

Simultaneously get cracking on the NAVIC system & for the love of God put aside all those vanity projects like man in space , man on the moon , etc for later .

If we survive this decade & early next one we can plan for a man on the sun as well.
 
2029 is too late. By 2029 we need a minimum of 1 to a max of 2 dozen NAVIC satellite in an orbital constellation if we've to provide guidance to our missiles from the extreme east & north coast of China to Gwadar in the west & everything in between.

I wouldn't risk reliance on anybody least of all the Americans irrespective whom we're going up against. What if it's a two front war & US permits usage only on our Eastern Front which they're well capable of doing given their past record ?




The time lines of the launch of those 52 satellites have been collapsed from 2028 to late 2026 . No clue if it will hold but I reckon with those GoI guidelines in place for these contractors even if we achieve launch of all these satellites by end 2027 it'd be a huge achievement.

What we need is another contract for 50-75 satellites to be inked within a year from now with the deadline for all the launches to be effected by end 2019. Difficult but doable with the right planning & logistics.

Simultaneously get cracking on the NAVIC system & for the love of God put aside all those vanity projects like man in space , man on the moon , etc for later .

If we survive this decade & early next one we can plan for a man on the sun as well.
The latest Ops has given us a fair idea of Chinese SAT advantages against us. By the end of this decade, we shall position ourselves quite favourably even against them.
 
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@_Anonymous_

Here is something relevant to this thread. A nice video regarding opinion of retired Army, Navy and Air-Force veterans regarding how our Army, Navy & Air-Force stacks-up against PLA, PLA-N & PLA-AF:


When I say that IA has the capability to rout PLA, people call me optimistic, but listen to all these veterans, they all share my thought process;)
 
@_Anonymous_

Here is something relevant to this thread. A nice video regarding opinion of retired Army, Navy and Air-Force veterans regarding how our Army, Navy & Air-Force stacks-up against PLA, PLA-N & PLA-AF:


When I say that IA has the capability to rout PLA, people call me optimistic, but listen to all these veterans, they all share my thought process;)
India TV ? Apparently even ex service personnel get carried away by the aura of the channel .

The ex IAF officer is repeating what we know. Nobody seems to be commenting on circumventing launching missions from Tibet by launching them from Yunnan instead which is the actual game plan apart from launching them from Tibet & obviously Xinjiang.

As far as the IA goes sure they've an edge but I doubt it's enough to grant them victory over the PLA especially if the support systems from everything like logistics to the IAF , to the IRF to ISR to our cyber warfare & counter to it & so on are in various stages of disrepair / dysfunction / extremely limited state / very initial stages etc.

We're looking at most of the Agniveers & perhaps the reserve forces fighting the war of their lives offering themselves as sacrifice to achieve even a stalemate . That's the only way we get to stop the oncoming onslaught. Thru body bags & more body bags.
 
The latest Ops has given us a fair idea of Chinese SAT advantages against us. By the end of this decade, we shall position ourselves quite favourably even against them.
Hopefully . RN there seems to be no urgency regarding NAVIC even if there's some urgency regarding the SBS of which we need much more of than the initial 52 planned . At least 2-3 times this number & 1-2 dozen NAVIC satellites to form a constellation.
 
2029 is too late. By 2029 we need a minimum of 1 to a max of 2 dozen NAVIC satellite in an orbital constellation if we've to provide guidance to our missiles from the extreme east & north coast of China to Gwadar in the west & everything in between.

I wouldn't risk reliance on anybody least of all the Americans irrespective whom we're going up against. What if it's a two front war & US permits usage only on our Eastern Front which they're well capable of doing given their past record ?




The time lines of the launch of those 52 satellites have been collapsed from 2028 to late 2026 . No clue if it will hold but I reckon with those GoI guidelines in place for these contractors even if we achieve launch of all these satellites by end 2027 it'd be a huge achievement.

What we need is another contract for 50-75 satellites to be inked within a year from now with the deadline for all the launches to be effected by end 2019. Difficult but doable with the right planning & logistics.

Simultaneously get cracking on the NAVIC system & for the love of God put aside all those vanity projects like man in space , man on the moon , etc for later .

If we survive this decade & early next one we can plan for a man on the sun as well.
Sir Bharat will survive for centuries, what you're worried about this decade. Man in space is important for national prestige. Both can be done at the same time we have the money. Gaganyaan total budget is $2.4 billion Karnataka government spent more for free bus rides for women.

ISRO budget needs to be increased. BY 2030 we will have NAVIC guidance for India and 1,500 km around it. Considering SBS Phase 3, Chandrayaan, NGLV, Gaganyaan, ISRO has a lot on its plate to expedite Navic.



Some figures on the estimated size of PLAAF while we're busy discussing what we ought to get in how many numbers how do go about the deal , import vs MII and so on while they're churning out FAs like sausages.
Our air power is in its lowest point ever and it's gonna take a decade to go to a decent level. Matching PLAAF fully is not gonna happen for the next 3 decades though we can build a sizeable force infront of them in Tibet.
 
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@_Anonymous_ btw when is it you think China will go to war with India? Personally I think it's rather unlikely but if the dragon wants to fight we need to detonate nukes, remove NFU and threaten nuclear retaliation for any attack conventional or not. I don't think we can fight the Chinese for the next 10 years.
 


This is an excellent in depth look at our space based ISR program . What comes across quite clearly is the non seriousness of our national security set up towards this most vital asset as compared to the US & of course China who've leaped miles ahead while we're still stuck in piece meal initiatives undertaken at our own sweet time.

It's always been a case of well begun is half done with us. Sanjeev Sanyal who's so good at communicating having coined the phrase " the poverty of imagination " to describe the risk averse nature of the private sector in our country should probably turn the gaze within at the administration he represents especially the bureaucracy for this article mirrors his view alas all too perfectly .

Result we've missed the bus & are now playing catch up at the most inopportune time when tensions are escalating by the day the threat scenario increasingly getting more volatile resulting in both US & China flexing their muscles as far as space goes & we're scrambling to get the basics right.

Read this & weep.

@Rajput Lion ; @Jaymax ; @Speedster1 et al
 
Sir Bharat will survive for centuries, what you're worried about this decade. Man in space is important for national prestige. Both can be done at the same time we have the money. Gaganyaan total budget is $2.4 billion Karnataka government spent more for free bus rides for women.

ISRO budget needs to be increased. BY 2030 we will have NAVIC guidance for India and 1,500 km around it. Considering SBS Phase 3, Chandrayaan, NGLV, Gaganyaan, ISRO has a lot on its plate to expedite Navic.
You need to tell this to Leaderji . It's he who's being tight fisted. All those projects you've named & more can be accomplished by ISRO with a proportionate budget to match . Otherwise it's a question of deciding priorities & if Leaderji dictates you send a Vyomnaut to space increasing the ISRO budget incrementally instead of exponentially which ISRO director is brave enough to give this pet project of the PM the same priority other projects of ISRO get.

@Hellfire recognised this trait in Leaderji long ago dubbing him Nehru 2 which I felt was unusually harsh .

5 years later I realise /Hellfire was extremely prescient.
Our air power is in its lowest point ever and it's gonna take a decade to go to a decent level. Matching PLAAF fully is not gonna happen for the next 3 decades though we can build a sizeable force infront of them in Tibet.
You remind me of RST . He was of the opinion we'd be in a position to take on the Chinese in 2040. Somehow he forgot to issue them the memo & here we are. Silly him !
 
@_Anonymous_ btw when is it you think China will go to war with India?
By 2030 give or take a year.
Personally I think it's rather unlikely but if the dragon wants to fight we need to detonate nukes, remove NFU and threaten nuclear retaliation for any attack conventional or not. I don't think we can fight the Chinese for the next 10 years.
The Sino Indian N dynamic is similar to the Indo Pak N dynamic. Paxtan has the N option which they threaten to exercise at the drop of a hat . Have they in spite of us crossing practically most of their established red lines ?

You could extend this logic to the Sino US paradigm as well. The US isn't deterred by Chinese NW & China's not deterred by our NW. Never has been . Had that been the case they'd never have undertaken what they did in the summer of 2020 & we wouldn't be having this conversation.
 


This is an excellent in depth look at our space based ISR program . What comes across quite clearly is the non seriousness of our national security set up towards this most vital asset as compared to the US & of course China who've leaped miles ahead while we're still stuck in piece meal initiatives undertaken at our own sweet time.

It's always been a case of well begun is half done with us. Sanjeev Sanyal who's so good at communicating having coined the phrase " the poverty of imagination " to describe the risk averse nature of the private sector in our country should probably turn the gaze within at the administration he represents especially the bureaucracy for this article mirrors his view alas all too perfectly .

Result we've missed the bus & are now playing catch up at the most inopportune time when tensions are escalating by the day the threat scenario increasingly getting more volatile resulting in both US & China flexing their muscles as far as space goes & we're scrambling to get the basics right.

Read this & weep.

@Rajput Lion ; @Jaymax ; @Speedster1 et al
History repeats itself. In the 1990s, it was only after the Kargil war that GoI decided to upgrade our well-established remote sensing sat capability to mil-grade 1m resolution via TES satellite, as part of SBS-1. Now, it's taken another war-like situation for GoI to expedite SBS-3.

A whole slew of ISRO progs are in limbo including GSAT-7A series mil comsats for the Army and AF. The IN's Rukmini sat should also be due for replacement anytime now.

If anything, the pvt sector is a silver lining with companies like Tata, Pixxel, GalaxEye and Digantara launching dual-use sats on their own dime. If it were up to GoI/ISRO, things would have continued to move at a glacial pace. Ironically, the Dept of Space comes under the PMO.
 
You need to tell this to Leaderji . It's he who's being tight fisted. All those projects you've named & more can be accomplished by ISRO with a proportionate budget to match . Otherwise it's a question of deciding priorities & if Leaderji dictates you send a Vyomnaut to space increasing the ISRO budget incrementally instead of exponentially which ISRO director is brave enough to give this pet project of the PM the same priority other projects of ISRO get.

@Hellfire recognised this trait in Leaderji long ago dubbing him Nehru 2 which I felt was unusually harsh .

5 years later I realise /Hellfire was extremely prescient.

You remind me of RST . He was of the opinion we'd be in a position to take on the Chinese in 2040. Somehow he forgot to issue them the memo & here we are. Silly him !

You know, I only joined this forum very recently. The first thing I did when joining forum was to go through the threads and read from starting.

Most of the threads were started around 2017-2019 period. And at the start, most of the time I have seen big criticism. Of handling of jk , infra, defense, politics, foreign policy etc etc..

It's been 6 years and most of the critique i saw turned out to be the success of the govt.

I am glad that you're all criticising his lack of vision for ISRO, Space ISR like you did for other reasons back then. I hope this turns out to be a more remarkable success.

An ISRO which was unmotivated after axiom scandal is taking on GAGANYAN mission.
And ISRO doesn't only work on one mission at a time. Just because we don't know doesn't mean that goi and ISRO ismt actively working on making "better" and more advanced indigenous satellites. Earlier satellite failed for a reason. They will solve them. Then they will make other advanced.. all the meanwhile NASA-ISRO must be exchanging pointers on advanced technology.

Then just 6-7 years ago, honestly how many of you could even imagine we will have a fckn private sector in space based tech!! We indians would be laughed at the idea of anything progressive happening.

For IAF. It's sad to see Current state. But IAF knew about the squad strength like 25-30 years ago. There's a predictable lifetime of FA. Many bad things happened from GOI, IAF, MoD scams etc..
Now we seem to have become weaker in air force you say.. I will like to remind everyone of one fact..
In history since independence.. barring few period of gaps.. IAF had never been superior in terms of Advanced jets against PAF. Wether it always f-16.. or in 1971,1965 etc.. We won!! As for china.. other than F-35 or Su-57.. which FA do you think is effective, even in big numbers to go against PLAF... One wasnt available before trump. Another isn't good enuf.. And the border infra.. wouldn't you say IAF has better infra now. Especially after 2020 clashes.

And to fill the gap .. that's what LCAMk2 with AMCA is for. LCA being late can't be delegated to GOI after a point.
For pvt aerospace industry.. for anyone who says that we should have started AMCA a decade ago.. tell me one indian company which was ready to take on the project.

10 years ago, how many of you had realised that our pvt industry would be embedding itself into FA supply chain and learning experience. So much so that it's possible to make a consortia and take part in FA program meaning fully.

Anyone? There might be many misses in the govt like any other.. but one thing it doesn't lack is a vision. Infact, it's the first govt after liberalisation which has a commendable vision for India which is realisitic for 21st century. Everyone else is just pulling the cart of past..

Heck.. do we have the vision we criticise others lack thereof? Do we have the analytical capabilities to see the signs of future without forming opinion based on news articles rather than seeing the events happening all over the world.

So, criticise the govt where it matters. The STEM education curriculum, Higher education, Buckling under pressure and giving freebies to those who don't need it, etc..

But don't just laptop up on an article or current situation and come to conclusion about success / failure. Is that what a visionary take looks like? More like reactive.

And please don't ignore the role of GDP in development. As GDP increases, our appetite will also increase. China has so many jets cause it can afford it. We really can't. But we will be able to one day. Gotto keep improving and investing.

You know, many people criticise MM for focusing on IT only,. I don't. Cause in 2000 India didn't have enough capital or workers to leapfrog into advanced sector. So, it was good. Where he went wrong was that he thought that it was enough. He went for IT " service" sector and there was no policy environment to turn it into IT Producer.

That's what I see different in current govt. They started assembling way back in 2015. And now we have moved up the chain with increasing indigenous content year by year. Biggest example is the Semi-con industry.

Now there's a talk that Chinese firms are allowed/asked to invest in electronic sector in india. To actually ToT and manufacture. With cap upto 26% ownership. You might think that's bad.. but that's a serious yet pragmatic and cautious attempt at making Chinese have stake in India's growth story.

Just like china can't abandon pak not only cause of geo-dtrategy but also the amount it has invested doesnt permit it to do so.

Just my take. Please letme know what you think. It's an evolving thought process..
 
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You need to tell this to Leaderji . It's he who's being tight fisted. All those projects you've named & more can be accomplished by ISRO with a proportionate budget to match . Otherwise it's a question of deciding priorities & if Leaderji dictates you send a Vyomnaut to space increasing the ISRO budget incrementally instead of exponentially which ISRO director is brave enough to give this pet project of the PM the same priority other projects of ISRO get.

@Hellfire recognised this trait in Leaderji long ago dubbing him Nehru 2 which I felt was unusually harsh .

5 years later I realise /Hellfire was extremely prescient.

You remind me of RST . He was of the opinion we'd be in a position to take on the Chinese in 2040. Somehow he forgot to issue them the memo & here we are. Silly him !
Sir who is RST? You frequently mention him I've been seeing for years, still don't know who he is.
By 2030 give or take a year.

The Sino Indian N dynamic is similar to the Indo Pak N dynamic. Paxtan has the N option which they threaten to exercise at the drop of a hat . Have they in spite of us crossing practically most of their established red lines ?

You could extend this logic to the Sino US paradigm as well. The US isn't deterred by Chinese NW & China's not deterred by our NW. Never has been . Had that been the case they'd never have undertaken what they did in the summer of 2020 & we wouldn't be having this conversation.
Sir what makes you think China will come for us in 2030 and not later, like 2035.
 
You know, I only joined this forum very recently. The first thing I did when joining forum was to go through the threads and read from starting.

Most of the threads were started around 2017-2019 period. And at the start, most of the time I have seen big criticism. Of handling of jk , infra, defense, politics, foreign policy etc etc..

It's been 6 years and most of the critique i saw turned out to be the success of the govt.

I am glad that you're all criticising his lack of vision for ISRO, Space ISR like you did for other reasons back then. I hope this turns out to be a more remarkable success.

An ISRO which was unmotivated after axiom scandal is taking on GAGANYAN mission.
And ISRO doesn't only work on one mission at a time. Just because we don't know doesn't mean that goi and ISRO ismt actively working on making "better" and more advanced indigenous satellites. Earlier satellite failed for a reason. They will solve them. Then they will make other advanced.. all the meanwhile NASA-ISRO must be exchanging pointers on advanced technology.

Then just 6-7 years ago, honestly how many of you could even imagine we will have a fckn private sector in space based tech!! We indians would be laughed at the idea of anything progressive happening.

For IAF. It's sad to see Current state. But IAF knew about the squad strength like 25-30 years ago. There's a predictable lifetime of FA. Many bad things happened from GOI, IAF, MoD scams etc..
Now we seem to have become weaker in air force you say.. I will like to remind everyone of one fact..
In history since independence.. barring few period of gaps.. IAF had never been superior in terms of Advanced jets against PAF. Wether it always f-16.. or in 1971,1965 etc.. We won!! As for china.. other than F-35 or Su-57.. which FA do you think is effective, even in big numbers to go against PLAF... One wasnt available before trump. Another isn't good enuf.. And the border infra.. wouldn't you say IAF has better infra now. Especially after 2020 clashes.

And to fill the gap .. that's what LCAMk2 with AMCA is for. LCA being late can't be delegated to GOI after a point.
For pvt aerospace industry.. for anyone who says that we should have started AMCA a decade ago.. tell me one indian company which was ready to take on the project.

10 years ago, how many of you had realised that our pvt industry would be embedding itself into FA supply chain and learning experience. So much so that it's possible to make a consortia and take part in FA program meaning fully.

Anyone? There might be many misses in the govt like any other.. but one thing it doesn't lack is a vision. Infact, it's the first govt after liberalisation which has a commendable vision for India which is realisitic for 21st century. Everyone else is just pulling the cart of past..

Heck.. do we have the vision we criticise others lack thereof? Do we have the analytical capabilities to see the signs of future without forming opinion based on news articles rather than seeing the events happening all over the world.

So, criticise the govt where it matters. The STEM education curriculum, Higher education, Buckling under pressure and giving freebies to those who don't need it, etc..

But don't just laptop up on an article or current situation and come to conclusion about success / failure. Is that what a visionary take looks like? More like reactive.

And please don't ignore the role of GDP in development. As GDP increases, our appetite will also increase. China has so many jets cause it can afford it. We really can't. But we will be able to one day. Gotto keep improving and investing.

You know, many people criticise MM for focusing on IT only,. I don't. Cause in 2000 India didn't have enough capital or workers to leapfrog into advanced sector. So, it was good. Where he went wrong was that he thought that it was enough. He went for IT " service" sector and there was no policy environment to turn it into IT Producer.

That's what I see different in current govt. They started assembling way back in 2015. And now we have moved up the chain with increasing indigenous content year by year. Biggest example is the Semi-con industry.

Now there's a talk that Chinese firms are allowed/asked to invest in electronic sector in india. To actually ToT and manufacture. With cap upto 26% ownership. You might think that's bad.. but that's a serious yet pragmatic and cautious attempt at making Chinese have stake in India's growth story.

Just like china can't abandon pak not only cause of geo-dtrategy but also the amount it has invested doesnt permit it to do so.

Just my take. Please letme know what you think. It's an evolving thought process..
My point of grouse is restricted to our preparations or lack of it as far as China goes.
Everything which hasn't got anything to do with the topic is extraneous to this discussion. Please refer to the thread title if in doubt & frame your response accordingly.

Your post which I've quoted is rambling & all over the place.
 
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