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Is an alliance growing from Greece to India against Turkey?​

A new system of alliances may be shaking shape that stretches from India to Greece that threatens to leave Turkey out in the diplomatic cold.

Mohammed Soliman, a non-resident fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI) in Washington D.C., says that Turkey’s aggression has pushed these countries into a closer alignment.

“Erdoğan’s Turkey in terms of foreign policy moved from a zero enemies foreign policy to a zero friends over the last few years,” Soliman told Ahval News in a podcast.

“There is a feeling that Turkey’s foreign policy is more about dominance, not co-existence with regional and other foreign powers,” he said.

Soliman, who authored an article with MEI in July detailing what he termed an “Indo-Abrahamic alliance”, says that Turkish foreign policy on its own is not the sole agent driving this convergence but a significant factor. These partnerships between nations as varied as Greece, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and India are developing from individual initiatives based on a wide set of interests that include a rejection of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s assertiveness of Turkish might regionally.

The August 2020 Abraham Accords that normalised relations between Israel and the UAE took place in part because of shared fears related to Turkey, he said. Greece, a fellow member of NATO and Ankara’s chief rival next door, has cultivated closer ties with Israel and the UAE on defence and trade to counteract Turkish influence in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Concerns about Turkey resemble in part similar regional fears about Iran, particularly in the Middle East. However, Soliman added that worries about Iran are not equally felt across the band of countries he is examining compared to at least a shared disagreement with Turkey’s policies. He said that Turkey is in many senses a more capable strategic player than Iran, and its ability to project its power has left many worried about its intentions.

“There is a feeling that Turkey’s foreign policy is more about dominance, not co-existence with regional and other foreign powers,” Soliman said.

The inclusion of India in Soliman’s analysis had much to do with Turkey’s closer relations with Pakistan. Under Erdoğan, Ankara has backed Islamabad in its dispute over the Jammu-Kashmir region that is ruled by New Delhi, and has gone as far as to reject any Indian membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group on Pakistan’s behalf.

In a recent interview with ThePrint, Turkey’s ambassador to India said that he saw any political problems as something to compartmentalise without wider damage to diplomatic ties. But Soliman believes that the two states are strategically opposite in ways that will manifest even after leaders like Erdoğan or India’s Nahrenda Modi depart the political scene.

This may be apparent particularly in the aftermath of the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s seizure of Kabul on August 15. Soliman says that the end of the U.S. presence in Afghanistan will sharply reduce any importance Washington has assigned to Pakistan in favour of closer ties to India. For the U.S., India represents a critical partner in its growing competition with China as opposed to the staunchly pro-Beijing Pakistan.

With the loss of U.S. interest, Pakistan may in turn draw closer to Turkey, which until the Taliban’s victory in Kabul had a desire for greater involvement in Afghanistan.

The fact that powerful rivals are now speaking to each other and concocting new partnerships has not been lost on Ankara. In the last year, Turkey has made attempts to mend relations with several of them, which has produced some inways towards reducing its isolation.

That being said, Soliman explains that these same regional capitals view this Turkish charm offensive as tactical than any genuine strategic shift away from confrontation. They are keenly aware of Turkey’s need to improve its flagging economy, but they also have seen how these de-escalations have run into a wall with those like Greece and Israel.

To the members of this Indo-Abrahamic bloc, Soliman says that their view is that Turkey will not be changing in the long-run, and that any attempt to convince them otherwise is seen as a temporary adjustment.
 
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Reactions: Gautam
That’s offensive. You can say that their “Ancestors” are Turko-mongols, Arabs,Afghans, Persians and some other tribes , that invaded the subcontinent.
Ancestors are individually identifiable, plunderers, murders and rapists belong to larger group of Musal-man

Here is a demo of how much pakistani's love IK

 
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Reactions: _Anonymous_

Is India-Turkey rapprochement in the offing?
Illustration by Erhan Yalvaç.


Migrants wait for buses after their arrival to the port of Elefsina, near Athens, Greece, Oct. 22, 2019. (AP Photo) Europe's mistreatment of refugees from the Global South

In a less-publicized event in Turkey's latest diplomatic resetting, Indian and Turkish diplomats met after a four-year hiatus for political consultation in Ankara on June 10. According to informed sources, both sides have reached an understanding to increase exchanges of views and perspectives to enhance their bilateral cooperation in the coming months. After a prolonged time, the new initiatives have not come without reason.

For a long time, both countries have been looking at their relations only within their bilateral merits; nevertheless, they have been active beyond their traditional geographies and built their spheres of economic, security and political cooperation.

In recent years, India has become more active in the entire Indian Ocean region, including the Persian Gulf and Indo-Pacific. With two summits, the quartet of cooperation between the United States, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), India and Israel has now taken a shape that has brought India closer to its natural maritime neighbors and made it their partner in peace and stability.

Thanks to its status as a NATO member, Turkey has also deepened its ties with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE. In Central Asia and Eurasia, Turkey has been active for quite a long time to reconnect with the Turkic population and cultures and has formed the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). The liberation of Karabakh has also brought new opportunities for normalization with Armenia along with 3+3 format cooperation between the nations of the South Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, and their powerful neighbors, namely Russia, Turkey and Iran.

When India and Turkey trade is reaching a nearly $10 billion benchmark, and India-Turkey commercial and tourism relations have been increasing, they cannot avoid a wider political consultation.

However, the India-Turkey relationship is not an easy combination. It makes a complex puzzle for Indian and Turkey observers, as the relation is evaluated in an environment of highly volatile regional politics in South Asia and the Middle East. Turkey is a country that for a long time belonged to the Western security architecture as the largest army of NATO, with a neo-liberal economy, deeply connected with European politics and economy, emerging as a Eurasian power. The country's economy performed very well from 2005-2013, enough to join the club of G-20 economies.

India had maintained a strict nonalignment approach vis-a-vis international problems. With the declining influence of the Non-Aligned bloc in world politics, India is faced with two different realities, one, China has not only established itself as an economic and military power, but also it has developed a different world view as opposed to the philosophy of the previously agreed principles of peace and cooperation famously known as “Panchsheel principles.” Moreover, India has gradually reduced its dependency on Russia's defense supplies and diversified its relations beyond defense.

Turkey, too, has expanded its relations beyond the West and has tried to reduce its dependency on Western defense.

Despite belonging to two different security environments, India and Turkey have, nevertheless, found a comprehensive economic agenda to cooperate and advance their trade relations. Companies from both countries have started exploring their markets and have found promising opportunities in all sectors. Turkish companies are active in India's metro, road and tunnel construction and civil aviation projects. The successful economic relations notwithstanding, their political relations do not match the level of economic convergence. That is where such an important political consultation was needed to iron out their pending differences and bridge the trust gaps.

Briefly, there are three issues on which India and Turkey's political relations have failed to build confidence.

First, Turkey's very special relations with Pakistan, archrival of India, are generally seen as a "preferential choice," at least in their public sentiments and bilateral narratives. Having good relations with any country is, after all, the most important objective of diplomacy. The relations with both India and Pakistan have their respective merits in Turkey's diplomacy. Yet, the merits of the two different relations occasionally get blurred. While Pakistan-Turkey exchanges at all levels are frequent, India-Turkey exchanges have remained limited. Although, Turkey's Asia Anew Initiative has indeed promised a new beginning and a new perspective, Turkey's Asia Anew Initiative is yet to offer something promising to the world's sixth-largest economy. The Asia New Initiative has focused on new geographies and new markets so far, while old markets like India require a far more comprehensive approach.

In terms of understanding South Asia in general and India in particular, Turkey's policy perspectives remain occupied by the most happening geographies of the Middle East, Europe and Eurasia. Rarely a think tank in Turkey publishes and discusses South Asia and India beyond marginal commentaries. The region requires more academic and intellectual investments in understanding the region as a permanent need. Turkey has a very limited number of South Asia-related discussions in its universities, think tanks and policy forums. As Turkey's strategic profile and ambitions grow, Turkey's regional perspectives are carefully watched by all regions and stakeholders.

Second, both countries have often disagreed on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir, on which India and Pakistan have fought three wars. On several occasions, the Turkish leadership has raised the issue at international forums, only to be strongly refuted by Indian authorities. The Turkey-India spat over an issue primarily fought bilaterally by India and Pakistan has been of little help to the resolution of the issue or the improvement of India-Turkey confidence. Previously, the Gulf nations also used similar approaches and decided to engage with India and Pakistan on their individuality and merits.

Third, more important, rather the most important issue, is to find mutually beneficial trade relations. The least talked topic between India and Turkey observers is the scope of economic cooperation well beyond their bilateral ties. The companies of both countries have been competing for international projects from energy to construction to transport. India has gradually established its footprints in Africa and the Middle East, where Turkey has recently expanded its diplomatic and commercial presence. In Central Asia and Europe, Indian and Turkish companies have many common interests in supporting the local governments in order to keep their investment choices diverse and less dependent on any power. As Turkey has successfully diversified its relations beyond Europe, particularly with her trade and investment relations, Turkish and Indian companies meet everywhere. However, they have yet to explore how to use the available opportunities for cooperation in other regions for joint trade and development projects.

The discussions on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) once proposed and discussed during the visit of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to India, is maybe a starting point. Joint efforts in research and development, cooperation in renewable energy, cybersecurity and the environment are the areas of immediate mutual interest.

Not to forget, India was among the first countries to have voiced its condemnation of the military coup attempt in Turkey in 2016 and had responded positively to Turkey’s security concerns about the Gülenist Terror Group’s (FETÖ) activities.