The very first nice collateral effect (of a very bad decision) made by Donald.
He will help to cement europe. God bless uncle Donald for that.
All the official words for rearming in Europe use Russia as an allibi but I think The real goal is to be ready against china. Even Poutine act so to push europe to rearm. If China become to much threatening we will see such an alliance between India and China larger than only a partnership.The idea behind why I support a more powerful EU is because in 30 years the West will be too weak to challenge Asia. And the only way there can be balance is if the EU's defence and foreign policy are centrally managed in order to both compete with the East and stave off pressure from the US. We have already seen how the rest of NATO was bullied into invading Iraq by the US.
All the official words for rearming in Europe use Russia as an allibi but I think The real goal is to be ready against china. Even Poutine act so to push europe to rearm. If China become to much threatening we will see such an alliance between India and China larger than only a partnership.
The russian bear has quite no more teeth. Except the nuclear one.Russia is the EU's biggest threat. Even if the Chinese are a threat, they will have to ally with Russia before they move towards Europe, which may not happen. By sea, the Chinese have no chance of reaching Europe. There's India on one side and the US on the other. So Europe will be the one that will have to go to China.
India will never ally with China either. We are not going to fight the US over Taiwan, Japan etc.
The problem with alliances is we have to start picking sides. India's mantra is, "Why make enemies when we can all be friends?" Our only enemy today is Pakistan and only because they choose to be our enemies. So we will continue to maintain friendly relations with all countries. This will actually increase our own diplomatic power as a mediator for disputes between other powerful countries. You can call us the "perpetual fence-sitters".
Basically, if the EU remains weak, then war is inevitable. But if the EU becomes strong, then the West will gain some levels of parity with Asia and the chances of war actually diminishes. Even small wars like Iraq will become unlikely.
The russian bear has quite no more teeth. Except the nuclear one.
In case of a classical european war, and ony classical, once the first (russian) surprise rush, they will be heavily beaten. Lack of practice, old weapons, too much centralized HQ....
For the first time in the recent years, their defense budget is lower than last year.They will comfortably surpass Germany over the next 2 decades. And with a focus on military spending, their defence budget will easily come up to the level of the EU of the time.
Had the oil crisis not happened, their defence budget would have crossed $100B by now.
For the first time in the recent years, their defense budget is lower than last year.
The last goal of Putin is not to reinforce its army, it's a loosing game, but to stabilize its economy. They have gas, petrol, and some raw materials since yearssss and are always a under developped country versus EU.
Germany is not alone. Europe will reinforce its military relation and strengh in the coming years (thanks to Donald the fool), having finally understood that Uncle Sam (and specially Donald) is definitively regarding elsewhere.
We will never let germany or Danmark or Poland alone.
Germany is not Ukrainia.
The EEU will at least be 200+ million people. Their economy in 20-30 years will be much bigger than Japan and their defence budget will be above $400B in today's value.
Aren't you being over optimistic ? Even by your standards ? Look at the way things are poised . The sanctions seem destined to remain throughout Trump's first term . We've no clue as of now if he'd be back for the second term . And he's Russia's best friend . I also don't see Russia giving up on Crimea. Which means the West would maintain a stranglehold on the Russian economy and tighten it's hold gradually . All of which suits China who'd be delighted to help only to extract their pound of flesh .
Even if Oil prices rise , the entry of the US as an oil exporter courtesy shale oil apart from rapid advances in alternative energy systems will only mean that the days oil made billions for its owners are past . This isn't to say that the oil industry would never stage a comeback . But it'd be brief and increasingly erratic .
Where in this bleak scenario do you see scope for a Russian economic boom and the rosy picture you painted ?
Sir their primary exports are oil and defence. Oil prices will rise but not so much, US is ramping up it's oil production to keep pressure on oil prices, remind you US is as big a producer as Saudi and Russia, beside that days of oil are limited. After EU, US, India and China aggressively dumping the oil for solar and electric cars all that oil reserve they want to save to inflate the prices today will be as good as trash.The Russian economic problems today has nothing to do with the sanctions. It's to do with oil. And as oil prices are going up, so is their economy.
But to get out of their oil-only economy, they are diversifying.
Russia will start competing in the high technology game pretty soon. They are bringing their military technology into the civilian sphere. So you will see them competing with companies like Airbus and Boeing. They are also moving into the civilian tech game.
Sir their primary exports are oil and defence. Oil prices will rise but not so much, US is ramping up it's oil production to keep pressure on oil prices, remind you US is as big a producer as Saudi and Russia, beside that days of oil are limited. After EU, US, India and China aggressively dumping the oil for solar and electric cars all that oil reserve they want to save to inflate the prices today will be as good as trash.
In defence export too they have lost two major buyers in India and China who together buy over 50% of their exports. Not just that from buyers they will emerge as competitors in short term effectively reducing the arms sales, and don't forget the effect of sanctions on arms sale. You may see few big tickets items but they too will get delayed while small buyers practically vanishing.
The climate and soil is not so fertile that they can become agri exporters, at best they maybe able to self sustain.
In industrial production I don't think they can compete China or India in long term due to cheap labour beside that only the region around Moscow have some demographic advantages being closer to EU, rest part of country is too cold and far.
They do have decent mining industry and gas exports.
So sir I don't see a bright future for Russia unless they are willing to behave like a civilized country. At best they will be able to sruvive, maybe even able to fight Turkey or Greece in long term but they are not coming back as major power forget super power.
I'll keep it simple. Russia will be a fully developed nation by 2050.
I would recommend looking up their forex and public debt numbers.
I would suggest you to talk to some Russians about Russia. They are not even 1% as optimistic as you are. Do you think creating high technology is some child's play? Even the mighty Nokia vanished into thin air within a span of 5 years!!I'll keep it simple. Russia will be a fully developed nation by 2050.
I would recommend looking up their forex and public debt numbers.
Forex reserves $460 Billion, nothing extra ordinary here.
Public debt 10% of GDP, which is good but not a strong or significant matrix to measure anything.
High or low public debt doesn't really say much, for example China and US both have significant debts but they are economically sound but Greece not so much.
I don't know who told you that sir but it is really too small a parameter in macroeconomics than you believe. I even quoted you successful countries with high debt and forex are not that high either, in an year or two India will have higher reserves.High forex and low debt is a massive advantage.
I would suggest you to talk to some Russians about Russia. They are not even 1% as optimistic as you are. Do you think creating high technology is some child's play? Even the mighty Nokia vanished into thin air within a span of 5 years!!
You think suddenly Russia will come up with some hi-tech gadgets and the whole world will be lining up to buy them ?? Give me a single reason why would that happen. Even Saudi Arabia knows the future of oil and hence trying hard to diversify by opening up theme parks !!
Oil price rise is a temporary phenomenon and very soon shale will flood the market eventually settling the price around 60-70$ range.