Avec le Rafale F5, la France a-t-elle encore besoin du SCAF ?
With the Rafale F5, does France still need the SCAF?
30 August 2023
The Rafale F5 now takes priority over the SCAF! This is the statement made by Eric Trappier, CEO of Dassault Aviation, during his appearance on the French business news channel BFM Business.
For the CEO, resources are currently focused on the objective of bringing out the new Rafale standard by 2030, followed by the UAVs that will accompany it, while the SCAF programme is aiming for a more distant timeframe.
In a more diplomatic vein than usual, Eric Trappier also reiterated his concerns about the future of the fighter aircraft programme that brings together France, Germany and Spain.
A still unclear future for the SCAF programme
While the tasks and industrial sharing are relatively well defined for phase 1B of the study preceding the design of the demonstrator until 2027, the future remains unclear.
It took the joint intervention of the French, Spanish and German defence ministers to get the SCAF programme out of the rut it had been in for a year.
Clearly, Dassault Aviation is afraid of a new tug of war with Airbus DS over the management of the NGF (Next Generation Fighter), the combat fighter and first pillar of the programme, which was already at the root of the strong tensions that brought the programme to the brink of implosion just two years ago, until the three countries' supervisory ministers took it in hand.
The fact is, Eric Trappier's concerns are well-founded. Not only is nothing set in stone beyond phase 1B, but another programme could shatter the fragile balance around the SCAF programme.
The links between the SCAF and MGCS programmes
At the same time, the other Franco-German defence programme, MGCS, is currently the subject of a major tug-of-war between Paris and Berlin, again over industrial sharing.
The MGCS and SCAF programmes are politically linked, and the failure of one could well lead to the failure of the other.
Above all, at the next meeting between ministers Sébastien Lecornu and Boris Pistorius at the end of September, France intends to impose Italy's entry into the programme, so as to force a salutary rebalancing of the programme. However, this does not seem to be to the liking of Berlin, and in particular its two industrialists.
For Berlin, or rather for the Bundestag, the two programmes, MGCS and SCAF, are linked, particularly as regards the sharing of responsibilities and industrial management: Germany manages MGCS, France manages SCAF, even if this is disputed by Airbus DS.
In short, if MGCS falls in the next few weeks or months, there is a good chance that the SCAF programme will do the same. Eric Trappier and Sébastien Lecornu are perfectly aware of this.
The ambitions of the Rafale F5 revised upwards by the new LPM
This is precisely where the Rafale F5 standard comes in. Although not officially presented as an alternative to the SCAF, the new Military Planning Law has given this new standard so many attributes that it could unquestionably claim to be one.
So much so, in fact, that we can now ask ourselves whether, in the current context, France still needs the SCAF, given the imminent arrival of the Rafale F5?