Not gonna happen. We never learn. Despite what happened last year, it would have been prudent to have numbers befitting the problem ( two fronts ) . Instead, it's a token raise given just for the sake of it. There is no way this can be used in case things go south with the Chinese and Pak. We will again see additional expenses which will be fund thrown in to do a patchwork.Hope they plan and spend wisely instead emergency purchase s again.
India should bite the bullet and add at least $10 billion to capital expenditure for next 15 years. With an overall budget of $400 + billion, an additional 10 billion is nothing when it comes to national security.So this year the capital budget was increased from 1.13LC to 1.35LC.
And the coming year, the capital budget will remain 1.35LC. So there's no effective growth unless the revised estimate sees a significant upward movement later on. I hope to see more emergency purchases this year to cover up for any shortfalls.
FY 2019 = 0.94LC
2020 = 1.05LC
2021 = 1.35LC
2022 = 1.35LC
We may see it revised to 1.4-1.5LC this year at the very least. And hopefully the next year will see a significant rise to well above 1.5LC with the revised budget adding even more to it.
Nevertheless, a 1.13 to 1.35LC increase for two consecutive years is pretty good news.
Wait till next year. It's officially 2022.India should bite the bullet and add at least $10 billion to capital expenditure for next 15 years. With an overall budget of $400 + billion, an additional 10 billion is nothing when it comes to national security.
India should bite the bullet and add at least $10 billion to capital expenditure for next 15 years. With an overall budget of $400 + billion, an additional 10 billion is nothing when it comes to national security.
I agree. But the system cannot yet handle the pressure of an unsustainable boost to the capital budget right away, because any increase in capital budget also increases the revenue budget by default.
What the govt is doing instead is reducing the price of capital procurement by going for indigenous products. So instead of importing 10, we are waiting and buying 15 for the same price. This means the forces are left waiting but the final bill is cheaper. So the leasing option and emergency purchases have been introduced to offset the delay in procurement.
Also it's about time that the boosts in capital budget that I have been expecting over the last few years begins. This year we saw a massive 18% rise in the capital budget thanks to China, and may actually grow by at least another 5-10% as the year progresses, making it a well over 20% growth. Next year and the year after could be equally big because it's about the time when a lot of indigenous programs mature, like the army's rifles, artillery, helicopter programs and the massive contracts expected for MRSAM and QRSAM. The army requires a significant boost over the next 2 years in order to fund their modernisation programs until 2028.
So, although you won't see a direct addition of $10B to the capital budget in just 1 year, you can definitely expect a pretty high double digit growth of the capital budget over the next 5-10 years, with a mix of low and high increases. The only way you can expect a big one-time boost is if we end up going to war.
By 2030, we will likely end up with a sufficiently large budget, with indigenous production having offset the large cost of imports. The govt believes we will only need half our actual capital budget if we mainly buy indigenous products and that shift began 2 years ago.
Modi doesn't have a Plan B or if it's there it's conspicuous by it's absence. Plan A consisted of intimidating Pakistan & milking it dry to the nation ( which seemed easy enough in retrospectb, for any action against them would be applauded coz the UPA put up a pathetic response everytime an outrage occurred) while also sucking up to China if only confronting it within limits like Doklam. Everything went according to script till last summer."we are waiting and buying 15 for the same price" - key word is 'waiting'. Given the current situation, can we afford to wait?
Going indigenous is fine, but it cannot happen overnight. It needs to be given time to mature and at the same time, we must procure off-the-shelf products to maintain balance. We cannot ask the army to wait for weapons while they are under attack. For the record, I am fully in favour of developing self made equipments, but it cannot be allowed to jeopardise the operational effectiveness of the military. I am not sure what the rationale is behind the approach the current government is taking. For the later part, adding the capital budget for defence can help do a patch-work, more in line with what we saw last year (purchase of systems which are required immediately to handle a short term aggression). It can in no way help modernise the army (tri-services) with the required modern equipments (as applicable) which can help us dominate any theatre.
If we talk about 2028 - 2032, may be, our own systems will be in a position to be deployed (touch wood), but what happens if all hell breaks loose within next two years? No one can rule out that possibility given the great neighbours we have. In fact, I wont be surprised, if we see a push from the Chinese in the coming summer.
Another important point - next election, given what happened before last election, Balakote strike was politicised to death and it had a major influence on the outcome of the last election. Hypothetically, if push comes to a shove anywhere near the next election, our government will not be able to say "koi andar nhi aya tha" and they will have to stand their ground. How do they plan on doing that with this kind of defence budget?
Modi doesn't have a Plan B or if it's there it's conspicuous by it's absence. Plan A consisted of intimidating Pakistan & milking it dry to the nation ( which seemed easy enough in retrospectb, for any action against them would be applauded coz the UPA put up a pathetic response everytime an outrage occurred) while also sucking up to China if only confronting it within limits like Doklam. Everything went according to script till last summer.
I'd venture so far as to say if the Chinese didn't show up in Ladakh we would've seen a de growth in the defense budget. There seems to be absolutely no sense of urgency or alarm to cater to a massive campaign were the Chinese to launch one in the near future. It's business as usual.
I agree. But the system cannot yet handle the pressure of an unsustainable boost to the capital budget right away, because any increase in capital budget also increases the revenue budget by default.
What the govt is doing instead is reducing the price of capital procurement by going for indigenous products. So instead of importing 10, we are waiting and buying 15 for the same price. This means the forces are left waiting but the final bill is cheaper. So the leasing option and emergency purchases have been introduced to offset the delay in procurement.
Also it's about time that the boosts in capital budget that I have been expecting over the last few years begins. This year we saw a massive 18% rise in the capital budget thanks to China, and may actually grow by at least another 5-10% as the year progresses, making it a well over 20% growth. Next year and the year after could be equally big because it's about the time when a lot of indigenous programs mature, like the army's rifles, artillery, helicopter programs and the massive contracts expected for MRSAM and QRSAM. The army requires a significant boost over the next 2 years in order to fund their modernisation programs until 2028.
So, although you won't see a direct addition of $10B to the capital budget in just 1 year, you can definitely expect a pretty high double digit growth of the capital budget over the next 5-10 years, with a mix of low and high increases. The only way you can expect a big one-time boost is if we end up going to war.
By 2030, we will likely end up with a sufficiently large budget, with indigenous production having offset the large cost of imports. The govt believes we will only need half our actual capital budget if we mainly buy indigenous products and that shift began 2 years ago.
We will see a "harakiri" if we see any push in the recent future. The main point of focus for GoI is perception. If GoI thinks that it can create another positive perception & milk it for the next election, especially where the Chinese are concerned, it will be a huge gamble.
From the Chinese PoV, the current government is a major threat given how conducive the UPA were to the them, so, they will try their level best to ensure that BJP doesn't come back to power. What better way to do that than beating BJP at their own game. If India gets a sucker punch from the Chinese & the perception within India is destroyed, there is not a chance in hell that BJP will come back to power in the next election. The national security card was a major chip which was used to win the previous elections. I don't understand why this is so difficult for GoI to grasp.
They have shown zero intent so far. We continue to bring Nehru back from the graves when ever we need stuff that needs blaming, but honestly, I don't see how this GoI is any different. Losing sight of the immediate while focusing on the future is not something that a wise government will do imo.
"we are waiting and buying 15 for the same price" - key word is 'waiting'. Given the current situation, can we afford to wait?
Going indigenous is fine, but it cannot happen overnight. It needs to be given time to mature and at the same time, we must procure off-the-shelf products to maintain balance. We cannot ask the army to wait for weapons while they are under attack. For the record, I am fully in favour of developing self made equipments, but it cannot be allowed to jeopardise the operational effectiveness of the military. I am not sure what the rationale is behind the approach the current government is taking. For the later part, adding the capital budget for defence can help do a patch-work, more in line with what we saw last year (purchase of systems which are required immediately to handle a short term aggression). It can in no way help modernise the army (tri-services) with the required modern equipments (as applicable) which can help us dominate any theatre.
If we talk about 2028 - 2032, may be, our own systems will be in a position to be deployed (touch wood), but what happens if all hell breaks loose within next two years? No one can rule out that possibility given the great neighbours we have. In fact, I wont be surprised, if we see a push from the Chinese in the coming summer.
Another important point - next election, given what happened before last election, Balakote strike was politicised to death and it had a major influence on the outcome of the last election. Hypothetically, if push comes to a shove anywhere near the next election, our government will not be able to say "koi andar nhi aya tha" and they will have to stand their ground. How do they plan on doing that with this kind of defence budget?
Actually there is no need to pump up the capital budget .Chinese are playing the same game we played against the Pakistan.Pakistan as usual made folly and pumped up the budget for defence and screwed their development programs .
Chinese also planning the same ,we have to know that we are not Pakistan.
Lets it be very clear.PRC is a 15 trillion $ economy with iron curtain as their face value .
Noone knows what is really going on behind that .
So we are simply not able to compete them pocket to pocket.
And to win a war you dont have to overspend anything but only need to use wisely .
As long as it clears user trials, everything else is unnecessary. Alternate capability is also being formed at the side anyway. For example, we are buying Rafales alongside LCAs. One proven, one not.
Similarly I have supported buying ATHOS alongside ATAGS for the same reason you have outlined.
Once a milestone has been reached in the development of a particular system, then imports are not necessary. For example, due to the success of Akash, future imports of SAMs are no longer required once the MRSAM program is complete. All future SAMs can be indigenous. Also why we have numerous SAM programs running in parallel now. The same thing's happening with other weapons, primarily in precision weapons and missiles.
That requires emergency purchases and leasing options. Rafale came in due to emergency operational requirements. Whereas IN is pushing for 15-18 SHs through the leasing option. They also got 24 MH-60s the same way as the IAF's Rafales. IAF is pushing for the A330 through lease as well. Then there's the army's Apaches, which were pushed through via FMS with the US, and many more are needed.
Similarly plenty of weapons and other systems are needed on emergency basis for immediate use, like those SIG 716 rifles. We also need Derby ER, hopefully that's already gone through.
Whatever new that we can use in the next 2 years will have to come in through these two processes. It's impossible for it to happen quickly through the normal procurement route.
I believe economy will be the main driver behind Modi's election campaign, not war. I don't think a war in 2021 will effect elections 3 years down the line. The Kargil victory didn't help Vajpayee's election campaign since most of the voters are not involved enough to care that much about our neighbours. Plus any action against China can be spun to favour the govt regardless of the outcome since the objectives of any war with China is not understood by the public. The Chinese have to practically take over all of Ladakh for the public to even understand what happened, and I doubt the Chinese are in a position to do that even with our current force structure.
Simply put, the army has the ability to stand their ground, even take some Chinese-controlled land if necessary, even if the IAF is unable to breakthrough Chinese defences. And the IAF has enough ability to perform air defence and support ground troops with their current inventory. And this is today, not necessarily 2 years down the line. Two years down the line, our current procurement will provide us a significant advantage over the Chinese in a limited war in one sector. IMHO, by 2023, we will be ready to fight a limited war on our terms with China based on our current rate of procurement and infrastructure buildup.
The point is not only the capability but having them in required numbers. How do you think our production lines will fare?
Having technical know-how and being able to develop them at a very fast pace are two very different ball game.
Also, regarding SAMs, where do you put our current investment in S400's ? Are our own systems close to the capability & performance of S400?
Again, the emergency procurements can do a patch work. According to you - leasing and buying few stuff here and the few stuff there, will that make our defence forces comfortable against a Chinese push? I will put it in a different way here - what are the objective(s) of the Chinese in Ladakh?
A naive analysis says that, they want to keep our both fronts active thereby draining us, resources which otherwise could have been utilised better are being put to maintain a huge army at that altitude. Also, do they have any long term plan? I have put up my analysis in the last post itself, so wont repeat it.
There is one thing that has remained constant with BJP administration, that is the focus on national security.
When you say - "Simply put, the army has the ability to stand their ground, even take some Chinese-controlled land if necessary, even if the IAF is unable to breakthrough Chinese defences" - do you also take in to consideration the duration? In a short conflict, yes, but what happens if it drags on for some time.
"Two years down the line, our current procurement will provide us a significant advantage over the Chinese in a limited war in one sector" - basing our defence on the assumptions that they will do it in one sector, that too, two years down the line? What happens if it happens this summer and in multiple sectors?
My opinion -
A defensive posture is not going to cut it. The Chinese need to be evicted from those lands, unless that happens, they will keep prodding us.
That needs both political will as well as proper military infra, a situation where the army feels comfortable going forward with an assault.
Unfortunately that is not possible with what the army is given to fight with.