China Signs 25-Year Deal With Iran in Challenge to the U.S.

Hydra

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Mining will never end. But oil is much more harmful compared to rare earth. The environmental effect of fossil over lithium is not comparable.

The byproducts will be needed, but not in the same scale as petrol and diesel. Oil won't be the multi-trillion dollar industry it is today after EVs take over. The politics behind oil will also tame considerably.



Within a decade, most of India's electricity generation will come from renewables and less polluting fuel sources like natural gas. Anyway a few dozen coal plants are less polluting than hundreds of millions of cars running on fossil fuels.
The electricity we producing isn't enough for our own domestic requirements I fear,even renewable resources.
And regarding coal powerplant, you are parly correct. It has high carbon footprint,but that will not affect majority of population directly since they were located far away from cities & metros. So I will prefer to live in a city run on electric vehicles.
China is playing the game well and America is loosing it for now.

The deal also include "Joint research and development of weapons between China and Iran. The best option for China to keep US pressure down is by distracting America with other issues. Iran is already kicking Saudi *censored* in Yemen. In China help Iran to make more modern weaponry, Iran can drag American resources further into Middle east and away from China.
Iran will not become a military power , Pakistan will not tolerate it, Saudis will not tolerate it. Israel will not tolerate it,and US too. China Iran cooperation in military hardware development is a death sentence to Iran.
 

randomradio

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I am around from time to time. The Iran-China deal is something that I expected to happen much sooner, as it was an inevitable outcome of the US walking out of the JCPA. In fact the timing makes me believe that China was just biding its time, waiting for the Iranian fruit to ripen fully before plucking it, and they're acting now out of fear that Biden could undo Trump's action and restore a working nuclear deal. It is in China's long-term interests to keep as many countries as possible fully out of the western sphere of influence, and there's no better way to achieve that than by making sure the west itself cuts all ties and exchanges with these countries. Iran, in particular, is an especially interesting country for China due to its strategic position and energy reserves. I also expect in the coming years, Iran's regional proxies (Hamas, Houthis, etc.) will increasingly become China's regional proxies.

Lebanon is probably next on the menu.

I had always pegged the deal to be signed a few months after Oct 2020 though, irrespective of Trump's job status, especially during the post-election period. I am also expecting some military deals signed within the year, although I believe the JCPOA will play a part in any potential delay.

Interesting thing about Hamas and the Houthis, I'm not sure if the Chinese will actually want to indirectly engage with the GCC and the West though. Rather there's a possibility they will try to reign in proxies.

I think there's a "Marshall Plan with Chinese characteristics" coming up for Syria.
 

BMD

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Dec 4, 2017
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It depends on the car.




Decades? No. A few years? Yes.

Possible by 2030 in almost all middle income and advanced economies? Yes.

Any infra build up is entirely dependent on market forces. If people opt for EVs, then the infra will cater to that need very quickly.
I wouldn't say they were real world values, if you take the Model 3, the figures are some 33% lower than actual test data.

A few years, come off it! You think the UK can stick batteries at every power station and every major substation, as well as smart voltage control, upgrade all transformers, have smart network monitoring, vehicle to grid and all the other stuff mentioned here in a few years?



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It took 5 years just to roll out smart meters successfully FFS. :ROFLMAO: It would take more than 5 years just to plan something on this level. It takes 15 years to build a fighter jet and you think the entire power generation and distribution architecture of an entire country can be planned and upgraded in a few years? Again, feel free to book mark this post.

If the market demand was something like more sugar puffs or cornflakes it sure would, but this isn't that.
 

randomradio

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A few years, come off it! You think the UK can stick batteries at every power station and every major substation, as well as smart voltage control, upgrade all transformers, have smart network monitoring, vehicle to grid and all the other stuff mentioned here in a few years?



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It took 5 years just to roll out smart meters successfully FFS. :ROFLMAO: It would take more than 5 years just to plan something on this level. It takes 15 years to build a fighter jet and you think the entire power generation and distribution architecture of an entire country can be planned and upgraded in a few years? Again, feel free to book mark this post.

If the market demand was something like more sugar puffs or cornflakes it sure would, but this isn't that.

A few years is all it needs. You are complicating something that's not difficult to achieve.

You are ignoring all that has already been achieved by the laying of underground cables for the internet. Creating a charging ecosystem is actually easier than creating a fiber backbone since the electricity grid already exists and can already handle high loads.

All the supercharging network needs is a small hub for every street with wires for every home connected to your local transformer, not even that with a more modern transformer. And those using street parking only need wiring going into lamp posts from the distribution transformer. Everything already exists. It's merely the local provider's headache to get the upgrade done. I doubt there's a single supplier in the world who doesn't want to add a 20-150KW consumer. You are quite literally saying electricity companies have no interest in making money.

Companies invest a lot of money connecting every household in a country to the internet and all they get in return is a small subscription every month. Otoh, the connection to the electricity grid is cheaper since they only have to worry about last mile connectivity and the consumer buys a car worth tens of thousands of dollars in return. When it comes to the internet, each ISP comes up with its own independent fiber backbone, but with the electricity grid, it's just 1 grid shared by all companies, which makes it significantly cheaper. Which company is stupid enough to miss such a chance?

Transformers are cheap compared to the cost of the EVs. Companies will be more than happy to do the upgrade and rake in the moolah. And the transformer is paid for in just 3 years versus its life cycle of 25-40 years. Also, home chargers do not need 5-minute charging, that's for the bunks and the boonies.
 
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BMD

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A few years is all it needs. You are complicating something that's not difficult to achieve.

You are ignoring all that has already been achieved by the laying of underground cables for the internet. Creating a charging ecosystem is actually easier than creating a fiber backbone since the electricity grid already exists and can already handle high loads.

All the supercharging network needs is a small hub for every street with wires for every home connected to your local transformer, not even that with a more modern transformer. And those using street parking only need wiring going into lamp posts from the distribution transformer. Everything already exists. It's merely the local provider's headache to get the upgrade done. I doubt there's a single supplier in the world who doesn't want to add a 20-150KW consumer. You are quite literally saying electricity companies have no interest in making money.

Companies invest a lot of money connecting every household in a country to the internet and all they get in return is a small subscription every month. Otoh, the connection to the electricity grid is cheaper since they only have to worry about last mile connectivity and the consumer buys a car worth tens of thousands of dollars in return. When it comes to the internet, each ISP comes up with its own independent fiber backbone, but with the electricity grid, it's just 1 grid shared by all companies, which makes it significantly cheaper. Which company is stupid enough to miss such a chance?

Transformers are cheap compared to the cost of the EVs. Companies will be more than happy to do the upgrade and rake in the moolah. And the transformer is paid for in just 3 years versus its life cycle of 25-40 years. Also, home chargers do not need 5-minute charging, that's for the bunks and the boonies.
I'm not complicating anything, I did a 4 year study with Northern Powergrid that involved trialling some of this stuff on a small scale (it overran by 15 months too BTW). Electrical power distribution and data connection networks aren't even nearly the same thing. The safety standards and testing requirements for one, the fact people use electrical power continuously. And some areas still suffer from slower internet. Different current draws require different cables, different circuit protection and maybe even different voltages for transmission. It isn't the same companies doing the upgrade that are selling EVs either, or even retailing the electrical power. Generation, distribution and supply are separate businesses in the UK. Don't confuse what you read somewhere with reality.
 

randomradio

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Nov 30, 2017
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I'm not complicating anything, I did a 4 year study with Northern Powergrid that involved trialling some of this stuff on a small scale (it overran by 15 months too BTW). Electrical power distribution and data connection networks aren't even nearly the same thing. The safety standards and testing requirements for one, the fact people use electrical power continuously. And some areas still suffer from slower internet. Different current draws require different cables, different circuit protection and maybe even different voltages for transmission. It isn't the same companies doing the upgrade that are selling EVs either, or even retailing the electrical power. Generation, distribution and supply are separate businesses in the UK. Don't confuse what you read somewhere with reality.

Superchargers would use DC, so it's safe. As I said, it requires a new hub with a new wire. Only the transformer needs an upgrade. So transformer - hub - wire - home charger. And that's only if the supercharger is even needed at home. And then it's likely to be used only in richer neighbourhoods.

Generation, distribution and supply may be from different companies, but they are all on the same standard. Or are you saying each district in the UK follows different standards? The wall connector takes care of different standards at the socket level anyway.

Even without changing the transformer, existing infra can easily handle the regular 7KW-11KW chargers for home use.

I suppose your study was conducted when many technologies did not even exist.

This guy's talking about already existing, deployable tech.
 

BMD

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Dec 4, 2017
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Superchargers would use DC, so it's safe. As I said, it requires a new hub with a new wire. Only the transformer needs an upgrade. So transformer - hub - wire - home charger. And that's only if the supercharger is even needed at home. And then it's likely to be used only in richer neighbourhoods.

Generation, distribution and supply may be from different companies, but they are all on the same standard. Or are you saying each district in the UK follows different standards? The wall connector takes care of different standards at the socket level anyway.

Even without changing the transformer, existing infra can easily handle the regular 7KW-11KW chargers for home use.

I suppose your study was conducted when many technologies did not even exist.

This guy's talking about already existing, deployable tech.
They're all on the same standards, but there's no direct market incentive for a distribution company to upgrade the distribution network unless funded to do so by the government, or by suppliers. Each region's distribution network is managed by a separate company, then you have the transmission network (the HV spine), which is government ran. There's going to have to be a lot of discussions along the way.

It was conducted 10 years ago, the technology existed but rolling it out even for a small scale trial is difficult and time consuming. The software currently used to design upgrades didn't even factor in any of this technology. I'm not disputing that the tech is deployable but you're oversimplifying the process of roll out and you can't just tell the country you're shutting down their electricity supply for X many years while you *censored* about either on the grid.
 

randomradio

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Nov 30, 2017
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They're all on the same standards, but there's no direct market incentive for a distribution company to upgrade the distribution network unless funded to do so by the government, or by suppliers. Each region's distribution network is managed by a separate company, then you have the transmission network (the HV spine), which is government ran. There's going to have to be a lot of discussions along the way.

Whatever's govt run will get the upgrades necessary. Whatever's privately run will get upgrades sooner because the market will demand it.

It was conducted 10 years ago, the technology existed but rolling it out even for a small scale trial is difficult and time consuming. The software currently used to design upgrades didn't even factor in any of this technology. I'm not disputing that the tech is deployable but you're oversimplifying the process of roll out and you can't just tell the country you're shutting down their electricity supply for X many years while you *censored* about either on the grid.

The entirety of Bangalore is being worked on to push overhead electricity cables underground at the subdivision level. And the company periodically shuts down power for a few hours when work is on in certain specific areas. My area lost power for 3 hours 2 weeks ago.

Go through this link to get an idea.

7250Km in 18 months.


The city’s power infrastructure is being overhauled in a big way. By 2022, all the overhead electricity cables will be replaced with underground power cables in all subdivisions of Bescom as part of the Bengaluru Smart Energy Efficient Power Distribution Project.

Stuff that you are assuming is impossible or will take decades is already being implemented, and in a matter of months or a few years. UK already has more charging stations than petrol stations today.

 

BMD

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Whatever's govt run will get the upgrades necessary. Whatever's privately run will get upgrades sooner because the market will demand it.



The entirety of Bangalore is being worked on to push overhead electricity cables underground at the subdivision level. And the company periodically shuts down power for a few hours when work is on in certain specific areas. My area lost power for 3 hours 2 weeks ago.

Go through this link to get an idea.

7250Km in 18 months.


The city’s power infrastructure is being overhauled in a big way. By 2022, all the overhead electricity cables will be replaced with underground power cables in all subdivisions of Bescom as part of the Bengaluru Smart Energy Efficient Power Distribution Project.

Stuff that you are assuming is impossible or will take decades is already being implemented, and in a matter of months or a few years. UK already has more charging stations than petrol stations today.

I've worked in the industry, it won't happen by 2030 like. I've work in gen too. It's taken one coal-fired power station 15 years to convert 4 of 6 boiler to wood pellets, they're putting in 4 gas turbines to replaced the other 2, which will take another 10 years. The DNOs might have a plan by 2030 to actually begin work. But I shouldn't worry because the uptake of EV won't be that rapid anyway. The deadline of 2030 will be pushed back by popular request, and even when ICE is phased out, many will still use existing vehicles or buy used. ICE cars will be around until after 2050 one way or another, even in the EU.
 

randomradio

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I've worked in the industry, it won't happen by 2030 like. I've work in gen too. It's taken one coal-fired power station 15 years to convert 4 of 6 boiler to wood pellets, they're putting in 4 gas turbines to replaced the other 2, which will take another 10 years. The DNOs might have a plan by 2030 to actually begin work. But I shouldn't worry because the uptake of EV won't be that rapid anyway. The deadline of 2030 will be pushed back by popular request, and even when ICE is phased out, many will still use existing vehicles or buy used. ICE cars will be around until after 2050 one way or another, even in the EU.

If there's a hard deadline, say 2030, then it will get pushed back. But India has decided to not apply any deadline, it's better for the market itself to make the transition on its own, like how people have adopted smartphones with sh!tty battery backup even though previous phones could stay on for days.

As for ICE, cars in India have been given a 15-20 year lifespan, after which it must be scrapped. So even if there's a hard deadline of 2030, ICE cars can still be used up to 2050. But I doubt ICE will be able to compete with EVs even by 2025 given the current rate of advancement. If battery backup improves to 350-500Km on a single charge with the potential to recharge at least 25-40% of it in 5-10 minutes at dedicated charging stations, never mind up to 80% in 5 minutes, then ICE is dead. The only ones who will actually buy ICE after that point will be enthusiasts, conspiracy theorists and paranoids.

Western countries can make the transition even quicker than India can. My opinion is private EVs will outsell ICEs in advanced economies from 2025 onwards. It's already happened in Norway and the Netherlands. And globally, it should be possible by 2030. What was expected to happen only after 2025 or 2030 has already started happening. Which is why most oil companies are predicting the oil market peaking before 2030.

 
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BMD

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If there's a hard deadline, say 2030, then it will get pushed back. But India has decided to not apply any deadline, it's better for the market itself to make the transition on its own, like how people have adopted smartphones with sh!tty battery backup even though previous phones could stay on for days.

As for ICE, cars in India have been given a 15-20 year lifespan, after which it must be scrapped. So even if there's a hard deadline of 2030, ICE cars can still be used up to 2050. But I doubt ICE will be able to compete with EVs even by 2025 given the current rate of advancement. If battery backup improves to 350-500Km on a single charge with the potential to recharge at least 25-40% of it in 5-10 minutes at dedicated charging stations, never mind up to 80% in 5 minutes, then ICE is dead. The only ones who will actually buy ICE after that point will be enthusiasts, conspiracy theorists and paranoids.

Western countries can make the transition even quicker than India can. My opinion is private EVs will outsell ICEs in advanced economies from 2025 onwards. It's already happened in Norway and the Netherlands. And globally, it should be possible by 2030. What was expected to happen only after 2025 or 2030 has already started happening. Which is why most oil companies are predicting the oil market peaking before 2030.

I wouldn't bet on advanced countries making the transition sooner, it's easier to start from scratch than redo everything. There are no laws on maximum car life in the EU or UK, since it's more environmentally friendly to use an old car due to the energy wasted in producing a new one.

The electric revolution will come but it will be very slow, and whilst EV owners currently pay zero road tax, that won't last when uptake passes a certain point, same with congestion charges.

There are other problems to fix with EV, like consistency of performance with charge as well as range. Quoted performance figures are only valid with full charge, whereas ICE cars get slightly faster as you use more fuel.
 

randomradio

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I wouldn't bet on advanced countries making the transition sooner, it's easier to start from scratch than redo everything. There are no laws on maximum car life in the EU or UK, since it's more environmentally friendly to use an old car due to the energy wasted in producing a new one.

The electric revolution will come but it will be very slow, and whilst EV owners currently pay zero road tax, that won't last when uptake passes a certain point, same with congestion charges.

There are other problems to fix with EV, like consistency of performance with charge as well as range. Quoted performance figures are only valid with full charge, whereas ICE cars get slightly faster as you use more fuel.

The transition is already happening. Rather developed countries are way ahead in making the transition. Supercharging stations have come up all over the place already.

The taxes, congestion charges etc will be designed in such a way that it will always be cheaper to go for EV.

Why would you want to drive your car "faster"? EVs will comfortably take you to the speed limit and keep you there. Range won't matter with superchargers. Majority of the people don't care about max range anyway.

There's no point in discussing this further. EV infra is coming up all over the world, and oil refining companies are already switching to non-fuel products. The writing is clearly written on the wall.
 

randomradio

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randomradio

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BMD

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The transition is already happening. Rather developed countries are way ahead in making the transition. Supercharging stations have come up all over the place already.

The taxes, congestion charges etc will be designed in such a way that it will always be cheaper to go for EV.

Why would you want to drive your car "faster"? EVs will comfortably take you to the speed limit and keep you there. Range won't matter with superchargers. Majority of the people don't care about max range anyway.

There's no point in discussing this further. EV infra is coming up all over the world, and oil refining companies are already switching to non-fuel products. The writing is clearly written on the wall.
Here and there yes, but nowhere near everywhere.

Until there is so much EV that it can no longer be free.

Why wouldn't I want to drive my car faster?

Long-term it is but the timescales are longer than projected.
 

Ginvincible

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What do you guys think about the Iran-China deal?
It's a sign of an emerging trend. Don't like deals with the West? Turn to China.

While this cooperation agreement is mostly just China developing Iranian gas fields and trying to branch it's BRI through Iran and into Turkey, it gives Iran more breathing room to negotiate on nuclear deals and whatnot. China gets some peace of mind that Iran won't go nuts and block off the Straight of Hormuz (which would honestly cripple China the most).

I don't think China is going to get any deep military cooperation with Iran, and they probably won't sell any arms that would make the GCC nations raise eyebrows. Iran has great power ambitions and I don't think China is interested in the minutia of ME politics beyond keeping trade lanes open and Western influence out.

It's also worth pointing out that Iran does enjoy playing large powers off each other. Even during the height of the Iran sanctions, they were still courting Total and Shell by granting them concessions in order to dissuade Europe from cooperating with US sanctions.
 

Saaho

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I'm not complicating anything, I did a 4 year study with Northern Powergrid that involved trialling some of this stuff on a small scale (it overran by 15 months too BTW). Electrical power distribution and data connection networks aren't even nearly the same thing. The safety standards and testing requirements for one, the fact people use electrical power continuously. And some areas still suffer from slower internet. Different current draws require different cables, different circuit protection and maybe even different voltages for transmission. It isn't the same companies doing the upgrade that are selling EVs either, or even retailing the electrical power. Generation, distribution and supply are separate businesses in the UK. Don't confuse what you read somewhere with reality.
BTW, in all of this discussion did anyone though of a more practical approach? You know like swapping battery packs for charging? Building Charging network is not the only way to speed up delivering charge in cars.
It is certainly very practical in electric bikes and scooter.
For countries like India electric bikes and scooter might be the next stop.
 

BMD

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BTW, in all of this discussion did anyone though of a more practical approach? You know like swapping battery packs for charging? Building Charging network is not the only way to speed up delivering charge in cars.
It is certainly very practical in electric bikes and scooter.
For countries like India electric bikes and scooter might be the next stop.
It's possible, I have a lawnmower that works like that but I'd wager that a lawnmower battery is considerably lighter than a car battery. In fact, quick Google says a Tesla P100D battery is 625kg. So unless you are Bruce Banner, Clark Kent or Steve Rogers, a battery swap is probably out, unless it can be automated, which would probably be near as expensive as buying a second car and swapping car instead. Also of note is that the battery weighs more than the original Rover Mini.