China Signs 25-Year Deal With Iran in Challenge to the U.S.

randomradio

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They also have massively inferior range and take way longer to 'refill'. There are also end of life financial and environmental costs to consider.

The end of life environment cost is lesser than the case for the constantly polluting ICE. As for "refill", you have to first take into consideration that you can recharge an E at home, whereas for ICE you have to consider the time taken to actually travel to and fro from the bunk, waiting in line for your turn, paying for it etc. I'm sure even your local office will be asked to build infrastructure so you can recharge where you park your car. There's more inconvenience associated with ICE than with E, as long as the necessary fast-charging technology comes in.


Anyway I wanna stick to the topic on this one. From the oil industry's perspective, regardless of any problems associated with e-cars, the advantages are still plenty enough to cripple the oil industry. Even 15 years, with the scale of investments China is planning for Iran, has the potential to turn Iran into a developed country. You can imagine the kind of instability it will bring if Iran even achieves half of UK's GDP. Hell, right now they are funding three wars and holding an advantage in two of them.
 
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vstol Jockey

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The end of life environment cost is lesser than the case for the constantly polluting ICE. As for "refill", you have to first take into consideration that you can recharge an E at home, whereas for ICE you have to consider the time taken to actually travel to and fro from the bunk, waiting in line for your turn, paying for it etc. I'm sure even your local office will be asked to build infrastructure so you can recharge where you park your car. There's more inconvenience associated with ICE than with E, as long as the necessary fast-charging technology comes in.


Anyway I wanna stick to the topic on this one. From the oil industry's perspective, regardless of any problems associated with e-cars, the advantages are still plenty enough to cripple the oil industry. Even 15 years, with the scale of investments China is planning for Iran, has the potential to turn Iran into a developed country. You can imagine the kind of instability it will bring if Iran even achieves half of UK's GDP. Hell, right now they are funding three wars and holding an advantage in two of them.
Once the electric vehicles increase in numbers and batteries become cheap and able to hold more dense charge with very short recharging time, Oil prices will plummate and Iran will become a colony of China unable to repay the loan.
 

_Anonymous_

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Once the electric vehicles increase in numbers and batteries become cheap and able to hold more dense charge with very short recharging time, Oil prices will plummate and Iran will become a colony of China unable to repay the loan.
China already has the highest proportion of EV among vehicles. It's around 10% . They're one of the largest manufacturers of Li battery packs. They aim for near 100% EV by the end of this decade, give or take a few years. What exactly is this deal all about unless it's to cater to something immediate?

Perhaps the next 4-5 years. The kind of numbers thrown around in terms of investment , in this timespan particularly in the post Chinese virus era, is too good to be true if one is an Iranian & if it's too good to be true, it's too good to be true.
 
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randomradio

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Once the electric vehicles increase in numbers and batteries become cheap and able to hold more dense charge with very short recharging time, Oil prices will plummate and Iran will become a colony of China unable to repay the loan.

I actually don't believe the Iranians will put themselves in such a position. In comparison to Pakistan, their population is much richer, way more educated and has controlled population growth to a significant extent. To top that off, they actually have pride.

Their natural resource base is more than big enough to pay back all that investment in a very short time, unlike Pakistan. Oil and gas is 20% of their economy, so the remaining 80% will support any loans taken. The Iranians also have other natural resources to export. Let's also not forget that Iran has always had a trade surplus, so they have a pretty decent FDI stock, and their public debt is also reasonably low, along with very low foreign debt. And all this with limited foreign investment. Overall, they are the complete opposite of Pakistan.

If China supports their import substitution plans while allowing them to export their natural resources, I do not believe they will end up in a position of not affording large debt.
 

BMD

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The end of life environment cost is lesser than the case for the constantly polluting ICE. As for "refill", you have to first take into consideration that you can recharge an E at home, whereas for ICE you have to consider the time taken to actually travel to and fro from the bunk, waiting in line for your turn, paying for it etc. I'm sure even your local office will be asked to build infrastructure so you can recharge where you park your car. There's more inconvenience associated with ICE than with E, as long as the necessary fast-charging technology comes in.


Anyway I wanna stick to the topic on this one. From the oil industry's perspective, regardless of any problems associated with e-cars, the advantages are still plenty enough to cripple the oil industry. Even 15 years, with the scale of investments China is planning for Iran, has the potential to turn Iran into a developed country. You can imagine the kind of instability it will bring if Iran even achieves half of UK's GDP. Hell, right now they are funding three wars and holding an advantage in two of them.
There's a petrol station every few miles in the UK and you pay at the pump by card. Whilst overnight charging seems fine, you wait until everyone starts doing it, the infrastructure isn't even nearly ready. And whilst some people have yards and garages etc. some live in terraced houses and apartments with no yards or convenient plug in points.

3 wars? Syria, Yemen and ? China's policy is to buy other countries with debt.
 
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randomradio

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There's a petrol station every few miles in the UK and you pay at the pump by card. Whilst overnight charging seems fine, you wait until everyone starts doing it, the infrastructure isn't even nearly ready. And whilst some people have yards and garages etc. some live in terraced houses and apartments with no yards or convenient plug in points.

The infrastructure needed for the charging points is very minimal. Also, I'm talking about 5-10 minute charging time, not overnight. So those who park out in the streets can still find convenient locations for charging, no different from the petrol stations.

You will likely see charging stations in supermarket lots and such. So get your car charged while shopping.

Furthermore, in a petrol bunk you can only refill 1 or 2 cars at a time using one pump, depending on the design. There's nothing stopping a single e-charging kiosk to charge multiple cars at once, all you need is the connecting wires.

Hell, if you're parking in the street, you can even have a company charge your car on a regular basis wherever you want, since it's safe, not like a petrol truck. Some bloke can be paid to go around a neighbourhood charging cars overnight using a charging truck, that you booked using a mobile app the previous night, ready for use when you step out in the morning. What's the point of IoT if you don't use it? It will still be ridiculously cheaper than oil.

There's really no end to the flexibility.

3 wars? Syria, Yemen and ?

Israel of course.

China's policy is to buy other countries with debt.

It's unlikely to work on natural resource rich nations.
 
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randomradio

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We're seeing the first comments from opposition.


Well, he basically says the Biden administation are a bunch of pussies. So the criticism towards the US has already become very aggressive. Someone should remind the Israelis of the generous tech transfers they made out of greed to the Chinese since the 80s.

In the background I think I see a Qatari waiving his middle finger at the GCC. Oh, well, that's how it rolls. At least the Americans will sell more weapons to the GCC.
 
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BMD

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The infrastructure needed for the charging points is very minimal. Also, I'm talking about 5-10 minute charging time, not overnight. So those who park out in the streets can still find convenient locations for charging, no different from the petrol stations.

You will likely see charging stations in supermarket lots and such. So get your car charged while shopping.

Furthermore, in a petrol bunk you can only refill 1 or 2 cars at a time using one pump, depending on the design. There's nothing stopping a single e-charging kiosk to charge multiple cars at once, all you need is the connecting wires.

Hell, if you're parking in the street, you can even have a company charge your car on a regular basis wherever you want, since it's safe, not like a petrol truck. Some bloke can be paid to go around a neighbourhood charging cars overnight using a charging truck, that you booked using a mobile app the previous night, ready for use when you step out in the morning. What's the point of IoT if you don't use it? It will still be ridiculously cheaper than oil.

There's really no end to the flexibility.



Israel of course.



It's unlikely to work on natural resource rich nations.
5 minute charging time will work in lab conditions but when half the population, or even 10% of the population try it at the same time the back torque on power station generators will cause them to take a shit, at least it would if the grid distribution network didn't take an even bigger shit before then. That's the end to the flexibility. Uptake of EV isn't simply a matter of people buying them, the entire power generation and distribution network needs rethinking and upgrading massively, even for trickle charging, 5 minute charging is pie in the sky BS. We'll likely have fusion reactors in operation before we get near a system that can handle 5 minute charging for the population. And the amount of copper used in the cabling is going to be almost as phenomenal as the amount of steel used to hold the cables up. Not to mention the insulation (an oil by-product) required, or the oil-cooled transformers. Charging points are only the tip of the iceberg, arguably not even that.

I'd say Yemen is a dead heat at this point, with the emphasis on 'dead'.

It worked on Venezuela.
 

randomradio

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5 minute charging time will work in lab conditions but when half the population, or even 10% of the population try it at the same time the back torque on power station generators will cause them to take a shit, at least it would if the grid distribution network didn't take an even bigger shit before then. That's the end to the flexibility. Uptake of EV isn't simply a matter of people buying them, the entire power generation and distribution network needs rethinking and upgrading massively, even for trickle charging, 5 minute charging is pie in the sky BS. We'll likely have fusion reactors in operation before we get near a system that can handle 5 minute charging for the population. And the amount of copper used in the cabling is going to be almost as phenomenal as the amount of steel used to hold the cables up. Not to mention the insulation (an oil by-product) required, or the oil-cooled transformers. Charging points are only the tip of the iceberg, arguably not even that.

I'd say Yemen is a dead heat at this point, with the emphasis on 'dead'.

It worked on Venezuela.

You've overestimated the infrastructure needed. As the article I posted earlier said, even without an upgraded grid, it will still give 100 miles in 5 minutes, which is actually more than enough for pretty much everybody that drive in cities.

Even for long distance drivers, it's just 1 stop that's at best 15-20 min long for a 1000Km journey. And in exchange you save 10x on fuel. In the case of GB, 1000Km gets you anywhere. And I'm sure highway charging infrastructure will be much more powerful. All this with already invented technology.

The real clincher is the more than 10x reduction in operating costs.
 
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Saaho

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5 minute charging time will work in lab conditions but when half the population, or even 10% of the population try it at the same time the back torque on power station generators will cause them to take a shit, at least it would if the grid distribution network didn't take an even bigger shit before then.That's the end to the flexibility.
No, my dear, you know how peak loads are handled in power generation, don't you? A little thing called battery. Yes, power generation stations have massive batteries to support massive surge in current during peaks. Solution to any such surge demand is to add more batteries and large capacitors. During non peak times, let the batteries charge and then discharge during peak usage. Electric current in generation and feeding follows a pattern.

Its a thing.

Uptake of EV isn't simply a matter of people buying them, the entire power generation and distribution network needs rethinking and upgrading massively, even for trickle charging, 5 minute charging is pie in the sky BS.
Erm... no it is not. Handling surge does not need to be a grid only solution. Why? Because unlike cars which require their batteries to be light weight and non volumous, chargers can be somewhat bulkier and heavier using few other technologies unlike LiPo or Li-ion. You need your charger to deliver enough energy in a 5 minute surge? No problem! Let it accumulate energy during non-use period and deliver (as higher current) during charge delivery. This way you can have a high speed charger built every where, right in your home too.
 
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BMD

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No, my dear, you know how peak loads are handled in power generation, don't you? A little thing called battery. Yes, power generation stations have massive batteries to support massive surge in current during peaks. Solution to any such surge demand is to add more batteries and large capacitors. During non peak times, let the batteries charge and then discharge during peak usage. Electric current in generation and feeding follows a pattern.

Its a thing.


Erm... no it is not. Handling surge does not need to be a grid only solution. Why? Because unlike cars which require their batteries to be light weight and non volumous, chargers can be somewhat bulkier and heavier using few other technologies unlike LiPo or Li-ion. You need your charger to deliver enough energy in a 5 minute surge? No problem! Let it accumulate energy during non-use period and deliver (as higher current) during charge delivery. This way you can have a high speed charger built every where, right in your home too.
You've overestimated the infrastructure needed. As the article I posted earlier said, even without an upgraded grid, it will still give 100 miles in 5 minutes, which is actually more than enough for pretty much everybody that drive in cities.

Even for long distance drivers, it's just 1 stop that's at best 15-20 min long for a 1000Km journey. And in exchange you save 10x on fuel. In the case of GB, 1000Km gets you anywhere. And I'm sure highway charging infrastructure will be much more powerful. All this with already invented technology.

The real clincher is the more than 10x reduction in operating costs.
No, this absolutely isn't the way they're handled right now for the most part. Grid energy storage is a relatively new thing, some power stations are certainly investing in large batteries but it isn't there yet and it will take a long time to be there. But if everyone were to use EV, it isn't just a question of using peak clipping solutions, the actual total generation would need to go up, then you have to transmit that power to the point of use and I don't know what kind of assumptions have been made in the research randomradio refers to but I have taken part in research done by Northern Powergrid in the UK and the capability to transmit all that power doesn't exist. Yes you can use batteries on the grid itself too, but you still have to get the power from those batteries to the point of use, unless you propose having a battery everywhere, which would be an environmental catastrophe in the long run. Then there's the energy usage in mining all this lithium and producing the batteries. Lithium mining and disposal is already an environmental problem, and we aren't even at 1% of what is required for an EV future.
 
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randomradio

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No, this absolutely isn't the way they're handled right now for the most part. Grid energy storage is a relatively new thing, some power stations are certainly investing in large batteries but it isn't there yet and it will take a long time to be there. But if everyone were to use EV, it isn't just a question of using peak clipping solutions, the actual total generation would need to go up, then you have to transmit that power to the point of use and I don't know what kind of assumptions have been made in the research randomradio refers to but I have taken part in research done by Northern Powergrid in the UK and the capability to transmit all that power doesn't exist. Yes you can use batteries on the grid itself too, but you still have to get the power from those batteries to the point of use, unless you propose having a battery everywhere, which would be an environmental catastrophe in the long run. Then there's the energy usage in mining all this lithium and producing the batteries. Lithium mining and disposal is already an environmental problem, and we aren't even at 1% of what is required for an EV future.

Dunno about the UK or other developed countries, but I don't think upgrading the infra in developing countries will pose as much a problem because the cost of operating is a very significant issue, along with environment concerns.

Lithium isn't the only element being used. Also solid state batteries will be the future, and they are easily recyclable.

Regardless, most of the world is pursuing E technologies now. So the oil industry's clock is already ticking.
 
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BMD

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Dunno about the UK or other developed countries, but I don't think upgrading the infra in developing countries will pose as much a problem because the cost of operating is a very significant issue, along with environment concerns.

Lithium isn't the only element being used. Also solid state batteries will be the future, and they are easily recyclable.

Regardless, most of the world is pursuing E technologies now. So the oil industry's clock is already ticking.
Solid state batteries remove the risk of fire during the recycling process but at the moment recycling uptake is low and mining still causes environmental issues. Another unfortunate aspect is that China has very large lithium reserves.

More batteries also means more wiring and insulation, an oil by-product, with its own recycling problems. So the oil industry will still have business either way, it's just that the distribution between products will be different.
 

Hydra

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How long is oil going to last? The oil market will peak by 2040 with the current growth of alternate technology, especially e-vehicles. If some new breakthroughs are made in battery tech, then the oil market will peak even earlier. In China, electric cars are already about 10% of the overall car market, and we have just entered 2021.

Way more than 95% of petrol and more than 70% diesel refined in India for domestic use are meant for vehicles. And most refined petroleum products are used up for only these two fuels. 72% based on the chart.


A 100% switch to electricity would imply at least a 60% drop in the oil market. And we do not know how rapidly this drop will happen. The oil industry can't do as well as it does now in the long term riding on other byproducts.

Regardless of what Iran chooses to do, the investment will take the pressure off of them and also provide them an assured market. It's obviously better than not being able to sell anything while the eventual closing of the oil window approaches.

A more dangerous possibility is that the Iranians can become a significantly large oil exporter, enough to start rivaling other large exporters.
Oil industry will not collapse due to e vehicle, e vehicles will not help to reduce carbon foot print also.
Reason is
1) you need electric power to charge batteries, and the nain source of electricity is from fossil fuels, mainly coal then from petroleum based. The renewable energy is still in its infancy and nuke required exorbitant initial financial investment and technology, not all countries can afford nuke energy, and irony is not all those who can afford cannot go for it due to protests. So still fossil fuels will be used to generate electricity, the more you use electricity the more you gonna use fossil fuels.
Yeah the gasoline ( petrol in india) market may collapse, but in general petroleum industry will not affect much.
2) Fuel is just a part of petroleum industry, the polymer industry is almost completely depends upon the petroleum and we all knows how much we are using polymers in day-to-day life.
Once the electric vehicles increase in numbers and batteries become cheap and able to hold more dense charge with very short recharging time, Oil prices will plummate and Iran will become a colony of China unable to repay the loan.
Not gonna happen. The only way to reduce crude price to find a methodology to tap "gas hydrates ". The world wide gas hydrate reserve is huge,so huge that its believed that gas hydrate reserve is much higher than the combined petroleum & coal we used till date and the reserve left out.
 
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Saaho

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No, this absolutely isn't the way they're handled right now for the most part. Grid energy storage is a relatively new thing, some power stations are certainly investing in large batteries but it isn't there yet and it will take a long time to be there. But if everyone were to use EV, it isn't just a question of using peak clipping solutions, the actual total generation would need to go up, then you have to transmit that power to the point of use and I don't know what kind of assumptions have been made in the research randomradio refers to but I have taken part in research done by Northern Powergrid in the UK and the capability to transmit all that power doesn't exist. Yes you can use batteries on the grid itself too, but you still have to get the power from those batteries to the point of use, unless you propose having a battery everywhere, which would be an environmental catastrophe in the long run. Then there's the energy usage in mining all this lithium and producing the batteries. Lithium mining and disposal is already an environmental problem, and we aren't even at 1% of what is required for an EV future.
Okay couple of things.

1. Do you need additional capacity to power EV? Depends upon installed capacity in a country and potential capacity in the country. In many places like USA, excess generation is very much a thing and they have immense potential capacity to boot. Remember, "New World" is bigger. An example of this is narrated by this guy (and he uses wind-power example to boot!) :
. For many countries, this situation is not uncommon.

2. There are batteries and then well there are batteries. The ones used in EV vehicles are optmized for density (both volumetric and weight). It comes at a cost of using a metal that is a bit hard to find and hard to extract. There are batteries which are very easy to make, require very less maintenance and has NO polluting thing in it. Salt water batteries. They were once used a lot with wind turbines. They started out great in USA but the company had business problems and a Chinese company bought their patent. Aquion Energy - Wikipedia. Their batteries were great but were bulky and not suitable for cars. So in the economy of scale they got crushed by Li-Po batteries. If you can scale it, its a great battery with almost unlimited raw material to build from. Remember, you need weight and bulk limitation in your car battery. A charger / grid support can have a bulky batter tucked below it underground.
 

randomradio

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Solid state batteries remove the risk of fire during the recycling process but at the moment recycling uptake is low and mining still causes environmental issues. Another unfortunate aspect is that China has very large lithium reserves.

More batteries also means more wiring and insulation, an oil by-product, with its own recycling problems. So the oil industry will still have business either way, it's just that the distribution between products will be different.

Mining will never end. But oil is much more harmful compared to rare earth. The environmental effect of fossil over lithium is not comparable.

The byproducts will be needed, but not in the same scale as petrol and diesel. Oil won't be the multi-trillion dollar industry it is today after EVs take over. The politics behind oil will also tame considerably.

Oil industry will not collapse due to e vehicle, e vehicles will not help to reduce carbon foot print also.
Reason is
1) you need electric power to charge batteries, and the nain source of electricity is from fossil fuels, mainly coal then from petroleum based. The renewable energy is still in its infancy and nuke required exorbitant initial financial investment and technology, not all countries can afford nuke energy, and irony is not all those who can afford cannot go for it due to protests. So still fossil fuels will be used to generate electricity, the more you use electricity the more you gonna use fossil fuels.
Yeah the gasoline ( petrol in india) market may collapse, but in general petroleum industry will not affect much.
2) Fuel is just a part of petroleum industry, the polymer industry is almost completely depends upon the petroleum and we all knows how much we are using polymers in day-to-day life.

Within a decade, most of India's electricity generation will come from renewables and less polluting fuel sources like natural gas. Anyway a few dozen coal plants are less polluting than hundreds of millions of cars running on fossil fuels.
 
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randomradio

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@BMD



Total SE joined the ranks of oil companies anticipating a peak for the industry in the coming decade, saying demand growth will end around 2030.

Ubitricity integrates chargers into existing infrastructure, such as lamp posts and bollards.
“On-street options such as the lamp post charging offered by Ubitricity will be key for those who live and work in cities or have limited access to off-street parking,” Istvan Kapitany, executive vice president of Shell Global Mobility, said in the statement.


"RIL's strategy is to transform the Jamnagar refinery from a producer of transportation fuels to chemicals. The company ultimately wants to achieve a rate of more than 70 per cent in the conversion of crude to olefins and aromatics," it said.
 
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BMD

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Mining will never end. But oil is much more harmful compared to rare earth. The environmental effect of fossil over lithium is not comparable.

The byproducts will be needed, but not in the same scale as petrol and diesel. Oil won't be the multi-trillion dollar industry it is today after EVs take over. The politics behind oil will also tame considerably.
Depends on the energy used for the mining and where that comes from. At the moment, less than 1 in 1000 cars are EV even in developed countries, it's difficult to know what will happen when the other 99.9+% comes in.
@BMD



Total SE joined the ranks of oil companies anticipating a peak for the industry in the coming decade, saying demand growth will end around 2030.

Ubitricity integrates chargers into existing infrastructure, such as lamp posts and bollards.
“On-street options such as the lamp post charging offered by Ubitricity will be key for those who live and work in cities or have limited access to off-street parking,” Istvan Kapitany, executive vice president of Shell Global Mobility, said in the statement.


"RIL's strategy is to transform the Jamnagar refinery from a producer of transportation fuels to chemicals. The company ultimately wants to achieve a rate of more than 70 per cent in the conversion of crude to olefins and aromatics," it said.
I'm going to go on record now in saying that I think those projections will turn out wrong. Please bookmark this post.
 

BMD

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Okay couple of things.

1. Do you need additional capacity to power EV? Depends upon installed capacity in a country and potential capacity in the country. In many places like USA, excess generation is very much a thing and they have immense potential capacity to boot. Remember, "New World" is bigger. An example of this is narrated by this guy (and he uses wind-power example to boot!) :
. For many countries, this situation is not uncommon.

2. There are batteries and then well there are batteries. The ones used in EV vehicles are optmized for density (both volumetric and weight). It comes at a cost of using a metal that is a bit hard to find and hard to extract. There are batteries which are very easy to make, require very less maintenance and has NO polluting thing in it. Salt water batteries. They were once used a lot with wind turbines. They started out great in USA but the company had business problems and a Chinese company bought their patent. Aquion Energy - Wikipedia. Their batteries were great but were bulky and not suitable for cars. So in the economy of scale they got crushed by Li-Po batteries. If you can scale it, its a great battery with almost unlimited raw material to build from. Remember, you need weight and bulk limitation in your car battery. A charger / grid support can have a bulky batter tucked below it underground.
What happens when there's no wind, or equally, too much wind?

The way I see it, at the moment people run crap like TVs, washing machine sand kettles off EV, a few kW. Each car has several hundred kW, or even 1+MW for supercars. Call me sceptical but when the potential power draw is multiplied by several hundred that's going to cause problems. Except it's worse than that, these cars are supposed to be able to churn out that kind of power for maybe an hour, and there's talk of recharging it in 5-10 minutes!
 

randomradio

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I'm going to go on record now in saying that I think those projections will turn out wrong. Please bookmark this post.

RIL is already making the transition to low-fuel market conditions over the next 15 years. So the writing is already on the wall.

In most developing countries, fuel consumption will definitely rise from current levels, but it will fall in developed countries due to the rise in EVs and renewables, so it will even out to a certain extent.
 
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