Can India really threaten Pakistan over water?

RATHORE

Lion of Rajputana
Dec 2, 2017
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USA
What China would do to us as retaliation doesn't seem very relevant. China is going to do what it wants regardless. We have yet to divert any rivers from Pakistan and already some people now suspect that China may be damming the Brahmaputra without any provocation. So I don't know if tip-toeing around Pakistan is going to save us when it comes to Chinese water wars.

However, it's true that as of yet, India does not seem to have the ability to divert and properly use all of the rivers that go to Pakistan; and there's also the specter of Earthquakes in the region. So I think India should now work full blast towards developing such capabilities, and solutions to seismic issues.

Such a move could be justified due to Pakistan's engagement in terrorism. You directly tie Pakistan's access to water with their involvement in or cessation of terrorism. And the world is increasingly becoming a place where might is right, multiple countries have gotten away with blatantly wrong actions just due to strength; and compared to them, India is hardly doing anything wrong. Not to mention, with each passing day fewer and fewer countries give a damn about what happens to the dysfunctional, terror ridden mess that is Pakistan.
 
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ranadd

Member
Dec 4, 2017
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58
Even though that fellow is trolling, he does have a point.

In a non trollish way, Politicians may use some harsh words. But they or the government does not have the means to follow it up.

Money. Say we want to divert the rivers or create a canal system or create catchment areas, where is the budget?

Time. Lets just say GOI has the money(which they dont). How will the project execution go? There will be red tape after red tape.

Topics like this are just woulda, shoulda, coulda feel good topics.

India is still a piss poor backward nation. Indians are the most laziest, divided, regressive and reactive kinda people.
 
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Kshithij Sharma

Well-Known member
Dec 4, 2017
756
551
India
Even though that fellow is trolling, he does have a point.

In a non trollish way, Politicians may use some harsh words. But they or the government does not have the means to follow it up.

Money. Say we want to divert the rivers or create a canal system or create catchment areas, where is the budget?

Time. Lets just say GOI has the money(which they dont). How will the project execution go? There will be red tape after red tape.

Topics like this are just woulda, shoulda, coulda feel good topics.

India is still a piss poor backward nation. Indians are the most laziest, divided, regressive and reactive kinda people.
You don't seem to understand the meaning of budget at all. Speaking shit like the last sentence doesn't make a point but shows your shallow mindset and lack of any knowledge to speak in facts and reason.

Budget is never a big deal as this is about investment. Also, all the resources needed for the project is available within India like cement, steel etc. Budget constraints come only when imports are into play. Otherwise, taxation rise and other means can be used to raise resources.

Again red tape is due to poor quality traitorous government, not a standard procedure. If orders from top come in to get it done quickly, it will be done. Red tape is a nonsensical excuse as people are non violent and excuses work
 

Guynextdoor

Banned
Dec 19, 2017
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India should not threaten Pakistan over water even verbally. The Indus water treaty must be maintained. And pak should not support China in their efforts to divert Brahmaputra or we will have grounds to scrap iwt
 

ranadd

Member
Dec 4, 2017
67
58
You don't seem to understand the meaning of budget at all. Speaking shit like the last sentence doesn't make a point but shows your shallow mindset and lack of any knowledge to speak in facts and reason.
You are right. I don't much much experience other than managing budgets with my CFAs for last 10 years. Some of our capex used to come from certain places mentioned in these forums frequently. But, I honestly don't need to know much when we have a CFO to do that job.

I am a realistic person when it comes analysis.

Budget is never a big deal as this is about investment. Also, all the resources needed for the project is available within India like cement, steel etc. Budget constraints come only when imports are into play. Otherwise, taxation rise and other means can be used to raise resources.
You call me shallow yet you have not worked in a single heavy engineering project. This single line actually proves that. I would give you a tiny hint, the new bridge coming up in mumbai. There is a significant portion of equipment, consultants and materials being imported for 2 of the 3 packages. Pretty sure for 3rd as well. And those are the top engineering firms in the nation.

And coming to this project. India has never done anything to this scale. Do I need to go on?

Wait till I show few people the gems this forum produce.

Again red tape is due to poor quality traitorous government, not a standard procedure. If orders from top come in to get it done quickly, it will be done. Red tape is a nonsensical excuse as people are non violent and excuses work
I am part of something that is doing this before 1991. I want to believe, that we know what red tape is. But if you are saying otherwise..

I hope.. against all my wishes.. that you are joking. This again shows how little you know. Just a heads up, We were once contributors to a project that is the pride of the nation. Even to this day. It was and still is directed from the highest office of the nation. The program is still going on.

Buddy. You are a fountain of knowledge & Truth. Please stop quoting me. You are right, I am wrong.

Welcome to the ignore list. Sorry, I just don't have time to deal with noobs.
 

suryakiran

Team StratFront
Dec 1, 2017
657
736
Bangalore
There is a significant portion of equipment, consultants and materials being imported for 2 of the 3 packages. Pretty sure for 3rd as well. And those are the top engineering firms in the nation.
Any idea which group of the 5 will likely get the contract?
 

Shashank

Well-Known member
Dec 4, 2017
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Indus Waters Treaty: don’t lose the game

India and Pakistan have reached an impasse over issues of the Kishenganga and Ratle power plants. Their last meeting in the “good offices” of the World Bank last August and September yielded no progress and there has been no movement on the Indus Waters Treaty since.

There are two opposing points of view regarding the forum to resolve concerns regarding the design of the two power plants. Pakistan has moved to establish an international court of arbitration (CoA) while India argues that the matters must be heard by a neutral expert. Reports indicate that India has refused four different options of forums presented by the Bank.

The impasse has persisted since July 2016, when it was discussed at the secretary-level talks. A better understanding has been made difficult by the deterioration in bilateral relations following the Uri attack on September 18, 2016. India had accused Pakistan of masterminding the attack near the Line of Control. A week later, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi commented that “blood and water cannot flow together” while cancelling, for several months, scheduled meetings of the Indus Water Commission. Some reports indicated that India was even reconsidering their participation in the treaty.

What is clear is that the treaty is being dragged into the broader Indo-Pak relationship. It is necessary to understand the tactics that are being used against Pakistan and how we can overcome them.

Pakistan faced a setback with the decision of the neutral expert appointed in the Baglihar case in 2007. It had claimed that the Baglihar plant did not conform with the criteria prescribed in the treaty and, more crucially, that gated spillways in the design would allow India to control the flow of River Kishenganga, by way of drawdown flushing, in violation of India’s obligation to “let flow” the waters of the western river. Rejecting Pakistan’s arguments, the neutral expert determined that the conditions of the site, including the hydrology, sediment yield, topography, geology and seismicity, required a gated spillway.

However, in the Kishenganga arbitration case (2013), the ICA observed that the treaty gave no indication that a neutral expert’s determination had precedential value beyond the scope of the particular issue before it. On the other hand, it clarified that its own decisions would be binding with respect to the questions presented before it. In doing so, the ICA restricted the impacts of the Baglihar determination to the facts of the case and averted, in the words of Ijaz Hussain, an “enormous catastrophe” for Pakistan.

In Kishenganga, the CoA was called to determine the “ultimately legal” nature of the drawdown flushing for sediment control. It held that “the issue of drawdown flushing at the [Kishenganga Dam] would in all probability not comply with the flow restrictions of...the treaty” and “identified at least one operative provision that prohibits the depletion of dead storage for drawdown flushing”. By recalling that “flushing is… one of a number of techniques available for sediment control”, the ICA elaborated “that India’s right to generate hydroelectric power on the western rivers can meaningfully be exercised without drawdown flushing extends beyond the specifics of the [Kishenganga Dam] to other, future, run-of-river plants”.

The Kishenganga Award has also clarified that requests for the appointment of a neutral expert cannot not serve to impose procedural hurdles in accessing the CoA. The court held that nothing in the treaty requires questions to be solely decided by a neutral expert first, and that it could also consider such questions.

The Kishenganga Award effectively blocks India from benefitting from the determination in the Baglihar case by restricting all future dam designs. The intransigent Indian position in the current impasse can, therefore, be seen as a desperate attempt to force an adjudication by a neutral expert instead of a CoA, as the forum of the neutral expert is the only place within the treaty where India can possibly expect a favourable outcome on the drawdown flushing design of its future dams.

The impasse must also be seen in light of the deterioration of Indo-Pak relations following the Uri attack in September 2016. India immediately blamed Pakistan for the attack. But it did not respond to Pakistan’s earlier formal request to establish a CoA for the Kishenganga and Ratle disputes until October 2016 when it responded by requesting that a neutral expert be appointed instead.

On November 10, 2016, India criticised the Bank “for its decision to favour Pakistan” in relation to the establishment of the CoA. The Bank has a limited procedural role in relation to the treaty, but was now, nonetheless, caught up in the imbroglio.

A week later at a political rally on the banks of the Ravi, Modi declared that he would not let a drop of the waters of River Ravi to flow into Pakistan. The waters of the Ravi are already allocated to India under the treaty and the elections in Indian Punjab – in which a BJP alliance lagged behind a resurgent Congress Party – were on the horizon. On December 10, the Bank called for a “pause” in the treaty proceedings as “both processes initiated by the respective countries create[d] a risk of contradictory outcomes that could potentially endanger the treaty”.

On March 8, 2017, the Indian National Investigation Agency found the two accused “Pakistani boys” had accidentally wandered across the borders and were not, in fact, involved in any terrorist activity. During the same week, the Congress Party trounced the BJP alliance in the Punjab election and India announced that it would resume treaty talks with Pakistan.

In this context, it can be seen that the Indian government used the Uri attack as a political distraction to prevent Pakistan from approaching the COA. Its ratcheting up the rhetoric on the treaty by cancelling scheduled talks and calling the Bank biased can also been seen as a failed attempt to rouse political support in the Punjab election. Pakistan must resist the forces attempting to draw the treaty – a technical document best left untouched by politicians – into the broader Indo-Pak relationship.

The country must see through the ruse of India’s insistence that only a neutral expert should be appointed for the Kishenganga and Ratle disputes. Its stance that the disputes should be adjudicated by the ICA rests on firm legal foundations. Drawdown flushing is against the terms of the treaty.

Pakistan must not be distracted from its negotiation position through India’s political strategy or the Bank’s response to it. The Bank already has considerable investments – and influence – in the country, which should not be allowed to influence our position. By keeping the Bank’s role limited to its procedural mandate, Pakistan can reduce the risk of the international body employing its influence to determine the course or outcome of future treaty negotiations.

This article is an abridged version of a policy brief written for the Jinnah Institute.

Indus Waters Treaty: don’t lose the game
 

Shashank

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Dec 4, 2017
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Jhelum water inflow declines alarmingly

ISLAMABAD: After 52 years, Pakistan has experienced mammoth reduction in the Jhelum water inflows from 8,000 cusecs to 1,900 cusecs on Sunday (Feb19) but on Monday it slightly scaled up to 2,000 cusecs, raising the eyebrows of many in the country as all other rivers have normal flows.
However, a senior official of Pakistan’s Permanent Commission of Indus Waters (PCIW) attributed the decline in water inflows in Jhelum River to less rainfall, below average snowfall and low temperatures in the catchment area which is situated in Indian Held Kashmir.
Asked if India is in process of filling the reservoir of the just-completed Kishenganga hydropower project, he said that it depends upon the rise in temperature in the catchment area and the water flows are not gaining the momentum at the moment. However, water experts apprehended that the massive dip in water inflows may be the result of filling of Kishenganga Dam by Indians as other rivers have normal flows. IRSA spokesman Khalid Idrees Rana said that historically water flows in Jhelum river stay at 7,000-8,000 cusecs per day in these days, but now they have dropped down to an alarmingly level of just 2,000 cusecs.
However, the data shows during peak winter season water flows hovered in the range of 7,000-8,000 cusecs and specifically on December 26, 2017, the water flows stayed at 7,900 cusecs, but in January 2018, the flows dropped massively to be in the range of 4600 to 4,000 cusecs. By mid- February, when spring season starts approaches, the water flows drastically went down raising many a eyebrows. This means that India had started the process of filling of dam from January, 2018.
However, PCIW is totally unaware of the filling of the dam by India as it has failed to get information of any existing and future projects being erected on Pakistan’s rivers in the last four years particularly after Pakistan going to World Bank asking for the constitution of the court of arbitration (CoA) on the designs of Kishenganga and Ratle hydropower projects. The World Bank has failed to constitute the court of arbitration on account of India’s opposition as New Delhi is insisting that the matter should be resolved at the forum of Neutral Expert. Since then, Modi government is keeping Pakistan in the dark about the design of the future projects on eastern rivers. So Pakistan is not in a position to verify if India is filling the Kishenganga Dam.

Jhelum water inflow declines alarmingly
 

Hari Sud

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Aug 4, 2018
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Upcoming Water Crisis in Pakistan

Pakistan is not only financially stressed, militarily stressed, but a dangerous water shortage is on the horizon. Inside five years, there likely is either rationed drinking water or agriculture will receive lesser water resulting in lower food production.

Pakistani Punjab has four rivers crisis-crossing its land mass. Monsoon rains are in abundance, except during El-Nino year. Also rivers are fed by glaciers melt, hence water has been all year around and in abundance. That had been true for the last many millennia. Now comes the human intervention of the last 60 years - the Global Warming is affecting the Monsoon pattern, like this year these are erratic but still in abundance. The Global Warming is also melting away the glaciers which feed the rivers. Initially the flow increased, but as the glaciers melt away the water flow has decreased, as much as 50%. These two are the half the problems which Pakistan is facing. The others are the inefficient use of water and design of canals which irrigate the grain fields.

These canals were built by the British in the late eighteen hundreds. They found the excellent top soil and flat topography to build canals. These canals were built from west to east, hence the water of the Jhelum River will irrigate land to the east right up to Chenab River and the water of Chenab will irrigate land to the east all the way to Ravi River etc. There was a deliberate scheme in the British mind. They did not wish to hand over control of River and canal water to the local governments. They wished people to the east be dependent on water immediately to the west, least one day the locals grab the water as well as canals, the rivers and declare themselves independent. The British kept the capability to turn off the water flow from the river immediately to the west. Had it been the other way around then at any given time they could have faced a nearly independent farm economy and a state. Water flow kept the control in their hands.

These canals were built with 1800s technology, hence were not lined letting more than half the water to seepage during its flow to the farms. Since water was in abundance, nobody thought about the seepage issue at all, even after the British left. Today 85% of available water in Pakistani Punjab is used for agriculture, of which 55% is lost in seepage. Remaining 15% is used for domestic, industrial and construction purposes.

Since after the signing of Indus Water Treaty in the early sixties, Pakistan was allowed to build storage capacities to store excess water for the dry season. This they did not do, as much of the cash was spent on military and other useless ventures like intervention in Afghanistan, hence capability to store surplus water was ignored. This was not a serious issue until global warming melted away the glaciers which were feeding the rivers, hence the river water flow declined to half to what it was in early to mid nineteen hundreds.

Now the water scarcity problems of today.

In fact, Pakistan has no abundant water storage capacity, except two large dams. Also, it has the most inefficient canal systems feeding the agricultural land and bad..... bad management for the available water. Rising population has put a huge pressure on domestic use water. If it was one season or two due to the failure of rains, it is understandable. But it is not, if it is bad management.

Compared to that Indian Punjab have newly built dams, canals (all partially lined to prevent seepage) and can store water for 100 days as opposed to just 15 days in Pakistani Punjab. ...... what a contrast. Before partition, the Pakistani Punjab was twice more prosperous than Indian Punjab. Now it is the other way around. Monsoon vagaries affect both Punjab the same way, hence other than bad management, there is no other reason for the decline of Pakistani Punjab.

What can be done?

That excessive emphasis on Military in Pakistan has to stop. Even if the World Bank or India or China extend their helping hand to fix the problem, that hidden hand of the Pakistani military to grab the money will have to be removed, rather the military has to be confined to the barracks. The economy will have to play a dominant role with civilian authority in charge. They should copy the Indian model to build dams on the rivers for water storage and power generation. India has built or building three dams on River Chenab to store water and generate power. Pakistan has none in 800km run of the river thru Pakistani Punjab. Their focus is about picking up a fight on water issues with negative results and themselves do nothing.

Time is fast passing and thirsty and hungry people will be running around in search of food and water and create another refugee problem for somebody else to come and fix it. Hence, begin now or wait for the people to swallow you in a revolution. The key is to begin with downsizing the military and remove them power. Make Kashmir as a non issue and learn from India. In five years time, India will be $5 trillion economy. Pakistan will be stuck at the low end on the economic scale.

God bless the people of Pakistan and help them remove military from the power equation.