Brexit and Future of UK : Discussions

BMD

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Technically, there's nothing stopping the UK from unilaterally revoking Article 50 as long as they do it before March 29. That was the verdict of the ECJ.
If they voted 300+ vs <85 against a second referendum they're very unlikely to revoke Brexit.
 

A Person

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The big problem of the UK is that politicians are more concerned with their career than their country. That's a classic everywhere, of course, but for something as big as this, the level of amateurism on display is unforgivable.

I'm not saying the whole thing shouldn't have happened. But it should have been managed properly.

First: define Brexit. Theresa May had her nonsensical slogan "Brexit means Brexit" which is a tautology, not a definition. Find out what Britain really wants. Hard or soft Brexit? Make a decision at this step. You need to build a national consensus.

Second: research the consequences. For example, if you're no longer in the EU, you no longer get access to military-tier access to Galileo. Ironically, this is a rule that the UK itself imposed, at the request of the USA who didn't want a GPS competitor to proliferate to third countries. So find out what the UK will lose, and make an inventory of it.

Third step: plan for how to mitigate negative consequences and fully benefit from positive consequences.

Fourth step: go. Once you have a clear idea of what you want to get and what you want to do, you can invoke Article 50 and negotiate with minimum fuss. While negotiations are ongoing, prepare. If you want to get out of the single market, for example, you've got two years to build up your border infrastructure. Communicate your plans to your citizens, too, so that they too can prepare. You need to get an aircraft certification organism up and running? Well do so, it'll have to be ready on Brexit day!

Instead, what happened was that everyone was wasting time, asking for pie-in-the-sky eat-your-cake-and-have-it-too stuff, forgetting about all the complications like the Good Friday Agreement, Gibraltar, and so on until reminded about it by the EU, and just improvising stuff at the last minute, negotiating an agreement that you then reject while also rejecting the idea of leaving without an agreement.

I hope the report is rejected so that this sorry spectacle can finally stop.
 
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What UK - ought to have done & its politicians behaved in such a crucial matter - is long gone? They have already created a fiasco.
On what will or can happen next at best is as follows.
1) UK parliament before 21st march -
1A) discusses & agrees to a postponement in principle but cant - Result Hard Brexit
1B) discusses & agrees to a postponement in principle
-Revokes a postponement option in Article 50
-Makes a tangible & workable plan that Soft brexit can indeed happen in future (room full of blind people, are equally unlikely to all travel North in unison, without holding each other hand)
2) Brings the option Before EU
2A) UK has asked for a postponement, but with no real plan how it can in future - Result rejection & Hard Brexit
2B) Nothing short of a planned UK new public referendum plan for reexamining that UK indeed wants to exit or not exit EU, may get EU to to a postponement, rest is prolonging unnecessary
Thus will be political suicide for existing parliamentarians, if thats what they indeed propose at such late hr
Highly unlikely - one of few escaping to live another day option.
3) Post EU rejection of postponement , option for UK
3A) Call a emergency parliament session & pass the brexit resolution, which they royally rejected earlier twice with near landslide votes - for soft brexit
3B) Month end comes & Hard Brexit

So you see the options for UK for soft brexit have indeed become slim for which UK parliament needs to
- Makes a tangible & workable plan that Soft brexit can indeed happen in future
- Vote for a new public referendum plan for reexamining Brexit issue
- Or in emergency parliament session approve the earlier Soft Brexit deal, which earlier 2 times they rejected with landslide votes.
Else it HARD Brexit all the way
 
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Picdelamirand-oil

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A little more humor,

23/06/2016: "Do you want to get off the plane?
- We fly with unsavory people.
- Outside, we will be free to choose which company we want to fly with,
- we'll use the money saved to buy a vacation."

"Yes", say 52% of the British, against 48%, the rest will not even vote, knowing that you don't get out of a plane flying at 800 km/h at 30,000 feet.
.
- 29/03/2017 : Theresa May announces that we will be jumping out of the plane in two years' time. So she thought that a parachute could be useful and started talking to the pilots to see if we could find one.
.
- March 17 to 11/03/2019: May and the crew agree to manufacture a parachute with the means of the ship. However, Ms. May's fellow pilots are of different opinions: some think that a square parachute will be more effective than a spherical one, others think that after all, they are under no obligation to jump, others think that a parachute is completely superfluous.
.
- 12/03/2019 : D-18 Mrs. May's companions in misfortune meet and decide whether to use the spherical parachute. For the above reasons, they decide that they do not.
.
- 13/03/2019: Tonight, the same people are meeting again. The question is important: do we all agree that no one wants to crash to the ground after the big jump?
.
Meanwhile, the Captain and the crew helplessly followed the unrealistic tragedy that the group of British travellers were playing before their eyes.
 
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A little more humor,

23/06/2016: "Do you want to get off the plane?
- We fly with unsavory people.
- Outside, we will be free to choose which company we want to fly with,
- we'll use the money saved to buy a vacation."

"Yes", say 52% of the British, against 48%, the rest will not even vote, knowing that you don't get out of a plane flying at 800 km/h at 30,000 feet.
.
- 29/03/2017 : Theresa May announces that we will be jumping out of the plane in two years' time. So she thought that a parachute could be useful and started talking to the pilots to see if we could find one.
.
- March 17 to 11/03/2019: May and the crew agree to manufacture a parachute with the means of the ship. However, Ms. May's fellow pilots are of different opinions: some think that a square parachute will be more effective than a spherical one, others think that after all, they are under no obligation to jump, others think that a parachute is completely superfluous.
.
- 12/03/2019 : D-18 Mrs. May's companions in misfortune meet and decide whether to use the spherical parachute. For the above reasons, they decide that they do not.
.
- 13/03/2019: Tonight, the same people are meeting again. The question is important: do we all agree that no one wants to crash to the ground after the big jump?
.
Meanwhile, the Captain and the crew helplessly followed the unrealistic tragedy that the group of British travellers were playing before their eyes.
- 29/03/2019: And at last - the pilot has had enough of this charade & kicks the lot off the plane without the parachute, out in the cold misty night & legend has it that they are still searching for a soft landing from 30,000 ft
And they landed on top of this pointy one, gosh it will hurt in the bum :ROFLMAO:
1552725382337.png
 
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BMD

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First: define Brexit.
For most Brexiteers Brexit basically means the same as sovereignty for most people:

1) Control of immigration/deportation and borders;

2) Control of all national judicial matters;

3) Control of all national legislative matters;

4) Control of making trade deals;

5) Control of all UK revenue;

6) Control of UK EEZ as regards fishing;

7) Maintenance of territorial and internal market integrity.

As regards UK-EU relations it's simple - Full tariff and barrier free trade of goods and services including financial services or WTO with a view to blocking as many EU goods as possible.
 

A Person

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Why not? I have no dog in that argument. Hard or soft is of no real relevance to me.

But do you really think 100% of all Brexiters wanted all of these things, taking into account the tradeoffs that it meant? Let's be honest here.

For example, skip to 10:15 here for the flower trader's tale.
"What's at stake for you?"
"Everything. My family, my house, my staff. We've been trading for 33 years, and I did vote to leave"
"Do you regret that?"
"I definitely have second thoughts now."
"But when you voted 'Leave', did you not think 'this is going to affect my family'?"
"I didn't really think about it like that. I didn't really think about the business side of it."
Video is very against Brexit, obviously; but I think that's still a point you can't deny. Many Brexiters did not really think about it.

Which is why I said it was important to define Brexit. Give a clear plan of what things you want to get, and, more importantly, what things you are willing to lose for this. There would be a lot of debate to be had here, because you have an opinion but other Britons don't necessarily have the same, and the most important thing is to get everyone on the same page.

Because if you don't get everyone on the same page, then you get what you did get: a government that negotiate an agreement that the parliament rejects, and that's just a waste of time for everybody involved.
 

randomradio

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Fourth step: go. Once you have a clear idea of what you want to get and what you want to do, you can invoke Article 50 and negotiate with minimum fuss. While negotiations are ongoing, prepare. If you want to get out of the single market, for example, you've got two years to build up your border infrastructure. Communicate your plans to your citizens, too, so that they too can prepare. You need to get an aircraft certification organism up and running? Well do so, it'll have to be ready on Brexit day!
I think there is time for all that. IIRC, there is a two or three year wait time before UK loses access to the EU after B-Day. So they can build up their infra and such during this period.
 

randomradio

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Why not? I have no dog in that argument. Hard or soft is of no real relevance to me.

But do you really think 100% of all Brexiters wanted all of these things, taking into account the tradeoffs that it meant? Let's be honest here.

For example, skip to 10:15 here for the flower trader's tale.
"What's at stake for you?"
"Everything. My family, my house, my staff. We've been trading for 33 years, and I did vote to leave"
"Do you regret that?"
"I definitely have second thoughts now."
"But when you voted 'Leave', did you not think 'this is going to affect my family'?"
"I didn't really think about it like that. I didn't really think about the business side of it."
Video is very against Brexit, obviously; but I think that's still a point you can't deny. Many Brexiters did not really think about it.

Which is why I said it was important to define Brexit. Give a clear plan of what things you want to get, and, more importantly, what things you are willing to lose for this. There would be a lot of debate to be had here, because you have an opinion but other Britons don't necessarily have the same, and the most important thing is to get everyone on the same page.

Because if you don't get everyone on the same page, then you get what you did get: a government that negotiate an agreement that the parliament rejects, and that's just a waste of time for everybody involved.
The truth was in that Gogglebox snippet.

I don't understand how the ignorant become part of the decision making process. It's like that Swiss referendum for Gripen.
 
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Not really, most Brexiteers want a no deal exit.
Good choice, who wants to lose 50billion pound, when you can lose 500Billion.:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
The figures are hypothetical or are they really!!
Guess Irish will become then the next prosperous region, making a killing at UK expense
 
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BMD

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Good choice, who wants to lose 50billion pound, when you can lose 500Billion.:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
The figures are hypothetical or are they really!!
Guess Irish will become then the next prosperous region, making a killing at UK expense
We don't even have £500bn worth of exports going to the EU.
 

A Person

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I think there is time for all that. IIRC, there is a two or three year wait time before UK loses access to the EU after B-Day. So they can build up their infra and such during this period.
There's a transition period only if there is a withdrawal agreement. Which, at this point, means either accepting May's deal, or, theoretically, changing government so that a delay can be obtained to negotiate another. There's not enough time for anything else.

With a no-deal Brexit, however, there's no transition period.
 

BMD

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Why not? I have no dog in that argument. Hard or soft is of no real relevance to me.

But do you really think 100% of all Brexiters wanted all of these things, taking into account the tradeoffs that it meant? Let's be honest here.

For example, skip to 10:15 here for the flower trader's tale.
"What's at stake for you?"
"Everything. My family, my house, my staff. We've been trading for 33 years, and I did vote to leave"
"Do you regret that?"
"I definitely have second thoughts now."
"But when you voted 'Leave', did you not think 'this is going to affect my family'?"
"I didn't really think about it like that. I didn't really think about the business side of it."
Video is very against Brexit, obviously; but I think that's still a point you can't deny. Many Brexiters did not really think about it.

Which is why I said it was important to define Brexit. Give a clear plan of what things you want to get, and, more importantly, what things you are willing to lose for this. There would be a lot of debate to be had here, because you have an opinion but other Britons don't necessarily have the same, and the most important thing is to get everyone on the same page.

Because if you don't get everyone on the same page, then you get what you did get: a government that negotiate an agreement that the parliament rejects, and that's just a waste of time for everybody involved.
Yes. Even most of the people who voted Remain don't really like the EU.
 

BMD

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There's a transition period only if there is a withdrawal agreement. Which, at this point, means either accepting May's deal, or, theoretically, changing government so that a delay can be obtained to negotiate another. There's not enough time for anything else.

With a no-deal Brexit, however, there's no transition period.
The £40bn bill is only if there's an agreement too though. And the payment during that transition is also subject to an agreement. So with no agreement, the EU will have to find another £62bn short-term and then £11bn/year thereafter, plus another place to send £400bn worth of exports each year.
 

randomradio

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There's a transition period only if there is a withdrawal agreement. Which, at this point, means either accepting May's deal, or, theoretically, changing government so that a delay can be obtained to negotiate another. There's not enough time for anything else.

With a no-deal Brexit, however, there's no transition period.
Yep. Looks like a lot of people will be stuck between a rock and a hard place after everything is done and dusted.
 
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The £40bn bill is only if there's an agreement too though. And the payment during that transition is also subject to an agreement. So with no agreement, the EU will have to find another £62bn short-term and then £11bn/year thereafter, plus another place to send £400bn worth of exports each year.
Thats why EU will still be able to push its exports through to UK via the Irish Backgate of open borders, EU wont suffer much, Irish makes killing on UK expense.
while UK exports, with UK labels wont be get that treatment when it has to move off Irish coasts through official channels. So UK wont have a backgate for exports to mainland EU, except Irish state.

And UK cant abolish the open borders with Irish any time soon - as that's whats the price was for ceasing hostilities by IRA as primary demand.

Loss to UK wont be one time, but communicative & much deeper, as many industries, which were built in UK catering majorly to EU demands, will lose bulk of its market (thats all big industries). Hence they will either have to permanently shut shop or relocate out of Britian, over even choose if UK is more important to their long term plans or is EU & move there - hence cost is cumulative as total cost on UK economy. Behind bravado, any sound assessment by economists are ignored. Its called a bubble, Hard brexit will burst it, get ready for negative GDP growth for few years.
 
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BMD

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Thats why EU will still be able to push its exports through to UK via the Irish Backgate of open borders, EU wont suffer much, Irish makes killing on UK expense.
while UK exports, with UK labels wont be get that treatment when it has to move off Irish coasts through official channels. So UK wont have a backgate for exports to mainland EU, except Irish state.

And UK cant abolish the open borders with Irish any time soon - as that's whats the price was for ceasing hostilities by IRA as primary demand.

Loss to UK wont be one time, but communicative & much deeper, as many industries, which were built in UK catering majorly to EU demands, will lose bulk of its market (thats all big industries). Hence they will either have to permanently shut shop or relocate out of Britian, over even choose if UK is more important to their long term plans or is EU & move there - hence cost is cumulative as total cost on UK economy. Behind bravado, any sound assessment by economists are ignored. Its called a bubble, Hard brexit will burst it, get ready for negative GDP growth for few years.
That just demonstrates a complete lack of local knowledge. ROI ports don't even have the capacity to handle ROI-EU trade (that's why 80+% of it comes via the UK), they couldn't even begin to handle EU-UK trade, and even if they did there's no way in hell the crappy country roads between ROI and NI could handle it and trying to export it between NI and the UK would be an even larger impossibility.

The trade between ROI and NI is very limited and naturally limited by the infrastructure available.

Those companies will be replacing the imports coming from the EU to the UK, which will now face tariffs and NTBs, and there's far more coming in than going out. There's twice as many goods imports to replace as exports to lose.