Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina Quits, Army Coup Amid Massive Protests

[BMD]

What Ukrainians could have done to Russian speakers in Donbas had the Kremlin not interfered, the Islamists are doing to Hindus in BD today. We have videos to show for it. Look them up on X.

Things are gonna get worse once new elections are over.

JFC, don't ever try comparing what people in Europe might do with what happens in Bangladesh. Ukraine was only interested in getting its territories back, which Russia had invaded in 2014, and joining the EU, there was zero interest in any genocide or any purpose to one. The Russians were a minority in Ukraine, they could not affect its democratic direction, nor would an EU application have been successful following a genocide.

People who believe Russia's claims of genocide are dumber than shit, they make shit look like a Mensa candidate by comparison. Without Russia's mini pre-invasion in 2014 there wouldn't even have been a Donbass War or a Ukraine War, the former was just to create a BS pretext for the latter. Without Russia twisting Yanukovych's arm in 2013 there wouldn't even have been protests. If Yanukovych had just followed his election mandate, there wouldn't have been any protests. Putin twisting his arm was what made him dishonour his election mandate and that was where everything started going wrong. Everything traces back to Putin, everything.

 

[randomradio]

Unlike Russia, IAF/IA/IN can produce total 'shock and awe' against BD. How long do you think they would last against us(if we use brute force)?

Yes, BD is much weaker, but we lack other qualities that makes Russia a great power, and the biggest one is energy independence. Our overall dependency on the West for survival is much higher than Russia was.

Assuming we become energy independent, we can do pretty much whatever the heck we want, assuming a lot of other weaknesses are fixed within 15 years or so.

 

[randomradio]

JFC, don't ever try comparing what people in Europe might do with what happens in Bangladesh. Ukraine was only interested in getting its territories back, which Russia had invaded in 2014, and joining the EU, there was zero interest in any genocide or any purpose to one. The Russians were a minority in Ukraine, they could not affect its democratic direction, nor would an EU application have been successful following a genocide.

People who believe Russia's claims of genocide are dumber than shit, they make shit look like a Mensa candidate by comparison. Without Russia's mini pre-invasion in 2014 there wouldn't even have been a Donbass War or a Ukraine War, the former was just to create a BS pretext for the latter. Without Russia twisting Yanukovych's arm in 2013 there wouldn't even have been protests. If Yanukovych had just followed his election mandate, there wouldn't have been any protests. Putin twisting his arm was what made him dishonour his election mandate and that was where everything started going wrong. Everything traces back to Putin, everything.

You are being naive if you think the Ukrainains think like Western Europeans.

 

[Saaho]

Yes, BD is much weaker, but we lack other qualities that makes Russia a great power, and the biggest one is energy independence. Our overall dependency on the West for survival is much higher than Russia was.

Assuming we become energy independent, we can do pretty much whatever the heck we want, assuming a lot of other weaknesses are fixed within 15 years or so.

Uh.. If west denies India hydrocarbons, there is always Venezuela and Russia. And Iran too. Energy is not that big of a problem if India starts breaking sanctions.

Problem is, current Indian government will never go against business interests and there are no counter business lobby to the likes of Ambani and Adani since India has no military industrial complex. This is a god given opportunity to capture portions of Bangladesh which will solve our so called "chicken's neck" problem.

 

[BMD]

You are being naive if you think the Ukrainains think like Western Europeans.

You are being naive to compare them to Bangladesh and J&K issues. They are a lot like EU citizens and that was their goal, they voted for in 2010, they protested for it in 2013 and they still want it today. That's what the war is about, the rest is just lies and excuses concocted by the Kremlin.

As an Indian, living thousands of miles away, you are being naive to think you know how they think or anything about the cause of the war. You only get the pro-Russia perspective mirrored by the Indian media and the Russian perspective is literally Putin's perspective, because they don't have a free press.

 

[Ginvincible]

Uh.. If west denies India hydrocarbons, there is always Venezuela and Russia. And Iran too. Energy is not that big of a problem if India starts breaking sanctions.

Problem is, current Indian government will never go against business interests and there are no counter business lobby to the likes of Ambani and Adani since India has no military industrial complex. This is a god given opportunity to capture portions of Bangladesh which will solve our so called "chicken's neck" problem.

You got it. The biggest issue is that India lacks industrial self-sufficiency, not just military industrial but all industrial. An invasion of Bangladesh a la the Russian invasion of Ukraine would incur the wrath of the US/Europe. India couldn't survive Russia/Iran style sanctions. Even refining and processing hydrocarbons would slowly diminish due to India's imports of components to support those sectors.

India's population is also poor relative to Russia and Iran - there is not as much social development either so cohesion will be an issue. Unlike Venezuela, the Indian government can't just let dissidents and suffering civilians escape because where would they go?

India is in no position to engage in any misadventures. Unless there is a literal genocide like 1971, India cannot do anything to Bangladesh.

 

[Shan]

You got it. The biggest issue is that India lacks industrial self-sufficiency, not just military industrial but all industrial. An invasion of Bangladesh a la the Russian invasion of Ukraine would incur the wrath of the US/Europe. India couldn't survive Russia/Iran style sanctions. Even refining and processing hydrocarbons would slowly diminish due to India's imports of components to support those sectors.

India's population is also poor relative to Russia and Iran - there is not as much social development either so cohesion will be an issue. Unlike Venezuela, the Indian government can't just let dissidents and suffering civilians escape because where would they go?

India is in no position to engage in any misadventures. Unless there is a literal genocide like 1971, India cannot do anything to Bangladesh.

What India can do is simple - do trade warfare. Been checking this whole thing out. Bangladesh itself is pretty weak. The entire economy is dependent on garment exports. Choke it using whatever means and it is a done deal. Why go for conventional warfare, Saaho?...if you catch my drift. Your neighbour to the west is already experiencing that model.

 

[Shan]

https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/500-mn-in-overdue-power-debt-not-sustainable-adani-group-to-bangladesh-124090900417_1.html

Trade and Economics favour the Indians. Just use these channels and you pretty make Bangladesh a non-player. The only other neighbour Myanmar is already out of play due to their civil war. The loans on the BD govt. are already giving them jitters.

Bangladesh’s total power liabilities have now reached $3.7 billion, with $492 million owed to Adani. The country’s total debt to the conglomerate could rise to as much as $800 million, the report added.

 

[Ginvincible]

What India can do is simple - do trade warfare. Been checking this whole thing out. Bangladesh itself is pretty weak. The entire economy is dependent on garment exports. Choke it using whatever means and it is a done deal. Why go for conventional warfare, Saaho?...if you catch my drift. Your neighbour to the west is already experiencing that model.

Bangladesh is already poised to struggle economically in the future. Automation in textile manufacturing and competition from SEA is eating away at Bangladesh's market share. They do other things as well but not in enough volume to employ people, grow the economy, or maintain a favorable balance of payments. Whatever trade limitations are imposed by India will be supplemented by China or the West. Currying favor with Bangladesh is great for anybody who wants a strategic position in India's armpit.

Even if India implements trade restrictions, and nobody fills in the gap, that "neighbour to the west" you reference has proven that a populous nation can survive indefinitely begging for alms internationally while still making trouble in the neighborhood.

Realistically though, Bangladesh is 1 bad hurricane away from being a failed state.

 

[Shan]

Bangladesh is already poised to struggle economically in the future. Automation in textile manufacturing and competition from SEA is eating away at Bangladesh's market share. They do other things as well but not in enough volume to employ people, grow the economy, or maintain a favorable balance of payments. Whatever trade limitations are imposed by India will be supplemented by China or the West. Currying favor with Bangladesh is great for anybody who wants a strategic position in India's armpit.

Even if India implements trade restrictions, and nobody fills in the gap, that "neighbour to the west" you reference has proven that a populous nation can survive indefinitely begging for alms internationally while still making trouble in the neighborhood.

Realistically though, Bangladesh is 1 bad hurricane away from being a failed state.

As long as the trouble is manageable and can be chipped away. The boil in the armpit is not going anywhere...slow and steady treatment with an evolving strategy will yield results. There is only one choice for BD - Murica. Indians - prepare to order more arms...You already know whom to contact...the big boys who make big guns. Feed them enough and may be the state department goes like mehh....we'll leave it like it is. Order those F-35s and make it rain!!!!

What do you think of this plan?

 

[randomradio]

Uh.. If west denies India hydrocarbons, there is always Venezuela and Russia. And Iran too. Energy is not that big of a problem if India starts breaking sanctions.

We are not rich enough to play that game yet. Energy prices are so critical that even Europe suffers from even slight rise in prices.

We currently spend about $130B on oil imports. That will rise to around $180-200B by 2030. These prices are at $70/barrel. Our overall infrastructure expenditure is less than that. So you can imagine the sort of pressure the govt is under. A sanctioned Russia is selling its oil to us at a discount, but if we get sanctioned, that same oil will come to us at a premium.

So we need to do two things simultaneously. GDP growth that overshadows energy prices, so a $1T spend on infrastructure would need $300B in oil imports. And create alternative sources of energy so our oil import peaks at 8 or 9 million bpd instead of 10+. Sanctions would then mean premium oil prices but consumers rapidly switching over to alternative sources like ethanol and hydrogen.

Furthermore, the US can physically stop oil ships headed towards India. So we need military muscle as well.

Problem is, current Indian government will never go against business interests and there are no counter business lobby to the likes of Ambani and Adani since India has no military industrial complex. This is a god given opportunity to capture portions of Bangladesh which will solve our so called "chicken's neck" problem.

Even assuming we had energy independence today, we lack the military muscle to challenge the US at sea. Russia has plenty of nuclear submarines, enough to threaten/destroy Western shippng. There's also a lot of work being done to take care of the 0.5 front issue, that's quite a few years away.

If we are planning on dealing with BD militarily, we need to create new assets from scratch, both on our side as well as their side a la Ukraine. So forget economy, we are not ready even on the military front.

In any case, BD will give us plenty of opportunities if that's what they want. The interim govt is pretty useless, we will get nothing by ousting them. Things are gonna get way worse once BNP and Jamaat come to power.

 

[randomradio]

You are being naive to compare them to Bangladesh and J&K issues. They are a lot like EU citizens and that was their goal, they voted for in 2010, they protested for it in 2013 and they still want it today. That's what the war is about, the rest is just lies and excuses concocted by the Kremlin.

As an Indian, living thousands of miles away, you are being naive to think you know how they think or anything about the cause of the war. You only get the pro-Russia perspective mirrored by the Indian media and the Russian perspective is literally Putin's perspective, because they don't have a free press.

Lol. Keep believing this nonsense. Better start learning how to fight, they are coming for you. Learn some first aid skills too.

 

[randomradio]

You got it. The biggest issue is that India lacks industrial self-sufficiency, not just military industrial but all industrial. An invasion of Bangladesh a la the Russian invasion of Ukraine would incur the wrath of the US/Europe. India couldn't survive Russia/Iran style sanctions. Even refining and processing hydrocarbons would slowly diminish due to India's imports of components to support those sectors.

India's population is also poor relative to Russia and Iran - there is not as much social development either so cohesion will be an issue. Unlike Venezuela, the Indian government can't just let dissidents and suffering civilians escape because where would they go?

Getting a majority middle class will solve those issues. It's like the minute we achieve energy independence, the rest of the stuff will be in place, whether it's military and civilian industrial tech and the military capabilities like SSNs, AMCA, a satellite network, funds to raise larger armies, forex reserves etc.

India is in no position to engage in any misadventures. Unless there is a literal genocide like 1971, India cannot do anything to Bangladesh.

Even if there's a genocide, as long as Modi's in power the sanctions will come. The only exception is if the Republicans come to power.

Right now, the BD military supports India. So there's not a lot to worry about when it comes to security.

 

[Saaho]

We are not rich enough to play that game yet. Energy prices are so critical that even Europe suffers from even slight rise in prices.

Lol. We are indeed playing that game. Buying from Russia and showing middle finger to USA. Besides, if prices of fuel increases for India, it will be reflected in the products sold to Europe.

US can not do this without taking Russia and Venezuela and Iran into confidence. Also, they have long term sanctioned Iran, Russia and Venezuela. So yeah, we will have options.

We currently spend about $130B on oil imports. That will rise to around $180-200B by 2030. These prices are at $70/barrel. Our overall infrastructure expenditure is less than that. So you can imagine the sort of pressure the govt is under. A sanctioned Russia is selling its oil to us at a discount, but if we get sanctioned, that same oil will come to us at a premium.

You are forgetting that we export a substential bit of the oil we import as petro products. Lets account for that. For instance in FY24 we exported 84 billion dollars worth of petro-products. The actual crude consumption domestically is lower than $130B you are quoting. We export about quarter of petroleum products we produce. So actually, our local economy has only need for less than 100 billion dollars worth of petroleum. For an economy of size 4 trillion dollars thats like 2.5% of our GDP.

India's Infra expenditure in FY24 was $133B, BTW.

So no, west does not really have as much leverage as you think it has. Lastly, we are moving towards electric and not to mention, our railways are now most electrified in the world. By 2030, it is expected 15% of vehicles will be EV, lowering India's dependence on crude.

 

[randomradio]

As long as the trouble is manageable and can be chipped away. The boil in the armpit is not going anywhere...slow and steady treatment with an evolving strategy will yield results. There is only one choice for BD - Murica. Indians - prepare to order more arms...You already know whom to contact...the big boys who make big guns. Feed them enough and may be the state department goes like mehh....we'll leave it like it is. Order those F-35s and make it rain!!!!

What do you think of this plan?

We don't have any plans on creating a long-term dependency on America in strategic sectors. Forget strategic, even in regular sectors, we are aiming for local build and maintain plans, like Stryker.

So unless absolutely necessary, we don't want to get into a situation where we buy 40 F-35s and become dependent on the US for the next 50 years. We have already made that decision with Apaches, Chinooks, C-17s and C-130Js. Rather it's better to do it with currently unttainable technologies like the B-21 and Virginia, if absolutely necessary.

Anyway, first we have to wait for elections, see if Trump wins, and then we gotta wait for the post-Trump environment. By then we will know where we stand relative to our adversaries before making dumb dependency-creating decisions.

People tend to forget that the US is our long term enemy.

 

[Saaho]

Furthermore, the US can physically stop oil ships headed towards India. So we need military muscle as well.

US can stop shipment from Russia? From Iran? Not possible. Not in the world where both of these countries are completely anti USA. We will do exactly what we are doing with Russia. We will have fleet from Russia or Iran bring the crude to a safe harbour and then load it in our tankers and bring it to our ports. Right now, in an open war, US is not able to stop shipment of oil out of Russia or even Iran and we are supposed to believe that they will be able to enforce sanctions militarily in peace time? Not gonna happen.

Even assuming we had energy independence today, we lack the military muscle to challenge the US at sea. Russia has plenty of nuclear submarines, enough to threaten/destroy Western shippng. There's also a lot of work being done to take care of the 0.5 front issue, that's quite a few years away.

If we are planning on dealing with BD militarily, we need to create new assets from scratch, both on our side as well as their side a la Ukraine. So forget economy, we are not ready even on the military front.

In any case, BD will give us plenty of opportunities if that's what they want. The interim govt is pretty useless, we will get nothing by ousting them. Things are gonna get way worse once BNP and Jamaat come to power.

Let me ask this way. Were we ready in 71? No one is ever ready for military campaign. A swift and decisive capture of Bangladeshi territory is what we need and what we should do.

 

[RASALGHUL]

A swift and decisive capture of Bangladeshi territory is what we need and what we should do.

Why?
I mean it will be such a stupid & Idiotic move.
The Islamists- Radicals in Bangladesh aren't great in number.
The radicals will have effect of like Auto-immune Diseases on Bangladesh.
Let the Army or More secular party handle them, meanwhile We should solely focus on Economy.

 

[BMD]

Lol. Keep believing this nonsense. Better start learning how to fight, they are coming for you. Learn some first aid skills too.

Who is coming? Russia can't afford a direct war with NATO, no matter how much it wants to.

It's not nonsense, it's the truth. The utter dogshite you believe is nonsense. A democracy means people get 'what' they voted for (as much as possible), not just 'who' they voted for. What Yanukovych did was the coup, a policy coup, he had no democratic mandate for the policy of joining the EEU.

Let me ask you, do you agree that Yanukovych promised to work towards joining the EU during the 2010 election - "Our priorities are integration into the EUropean Union"? Do you think it's okay for him to U-turn and join the EEU instead without securing a fresh majority?

 

[randomradio]

US can stop shipment from Russia? From Iran? Not possible. Not in the world where both of these countries are completely anti USA. We will do exactly what we are doing with Russia. We will have fleet from Russia or Iran bring the crude to a safe harbour and then load it in our tankers and bring it to our ports. Right now, in an open war, US is not able to stop shipment of oil out of Russia or even Iran and we are supposed to believe that they will be able to enforce sanctions militarily in peace time? Not gonna happen.

All that comes at a premium cost, no discount, we gotta pay more. And the US will be able to stop our ships. Allied nations can even stop shipments temporarily citing one rule or the other further raising costs.

Yeah, perhaps they will not stop supply, but if we end up paying 10 or 20% more than the rest of the world, we can kiss our export industry goodbye. We can even kiss our remmittances goodbye, our IT earnings too will take a hit. 'Cause sanctions.

So we won't just be paying more for oil, but we will also not be earning enough forex to purchase it in the first place. We are absolutely not ready to break ties with the West without energy independence. I think by 2035 or so, we will be more than halfway there. Our goal is to achieve it by 2047, but it could be a lot faster than that.

China's in the same boat, but their oil bill relative to their economic strength is vastly superior to India's. And they can't be sanctioned like India can 'cause their industry is independent. It will take us 10 more years to get to China's level.

Let me ask this way. Were we ready in 71? No one is ever ready for military campaign. A swift and decisive capture of Bangladeshi territory is what we need and what we should do.

In 1971, the Soviet Union supported us. Today we have nobody.

Why?
I mean it will be such a stupid & Idiotic move.
The Islamists- Radicals in Bangladesh aren't great in number.
The radicals will have effect of like Auto-immune Diseases on Bangladesh.
Let the Army or More secular party handle them, meanwhile We should solely focus on Economy.

Yep. And we can put the squeeze on them via other means for now.

 

[randomradio]

Who is coming?

The people running your country.

Russia can't afford a direct war with NATO, no matter how much it wants to.

Conventionally, they are 5-6 years away. Nuclear, they are ready right now.

It's not nonsense, it's the truth. The utter dogshite you believe is nonsense. A democracy means people get 'what' they voted for (as much as possible), not just 'who' they voted for. What Yanukovych did was the coup, a policy coup, he had no democratic mandate for the policy of joining the EEU.

Let me ask you, do you agree that Yanukovych promised to work towards joining the EU during the 2010 election - "Our priorities are integration into the EUropean Union"? Do you think it's okay for him to U-turn and join the EEU instead without securing a fresh majority?

Yes to both.

That's the problem with being economically and militarily weak. Resistance is impossible.

Yanukovych was keen on joining the EU. But the West made proposals that would weaken Yanukovych's political base. And there was absolutely no guarantee of actually joining the EU even after doing the EU's bidding. Yanukovych found out there's no such thing as a free lunch, which Zelensky also found out by April 2022.

Forget NATO, there wasn't even an option for Ukraine to join the EU. The EU planned to push Yanukovych out of power and string Ukraine along with a carrot and stick approach for a decade-plus. The US/UK goal was always to drag Russia into Ukraine and use them as the boogie monster to put the EU in line. The first goal was to weaken Russia. The second goal was to kill the European middle class and usher in a communist regime via the Great Reset. Then no more France, UK, Germany etc, Europe would be just one country run by a communist-style oligarchy. Guess when this second plan was initiated... 2015.

Rebuilding the Asylum System | by George Soros - Project Syndicate

George Soros lays out a comprehensive plan to manage the surge in refugee flows worldwide.

www.project-syndicate.org

Funny how everything's started to fit.