Are you really this naive...China sits back during a two front confrontation? The premise was a two front war. As per Donald Trump we were hours away from exchanging nukes. That's the boss of NATO and President of Europe (to quote Truth Social).
Australia is in a funny place, We have the largest Islamic nation as our neighbour, we have China asserting it's dash lines claim on territory, We are a population of 27m and going by the chart, we are over half the conventional capability of India, I have no idea how that is worked out,
We are short of manpower, but make up for it with tech, I guess?
Why would China throw nukes, when Pak can do it for them, It would start with the proxy two front
If they don't, we definitely will (at both of them). We're not Australia. We still have half a brain left.
No, I think you know that already and I did say conventional, Australia helped the US with their nukes in WW2, We have the capability if we cancel the anti nuke agreements, but two of our partners have nukes, do we really need them to spur a south east asia arms race, A nuke powered Indonesia?
Talk when you are armed. As it stands today, Aussies have zero nukes. Then cancel them. What partners...the one sitting in the white palace will sell you at the right price.
uk has nukes and is our partner, Is trump a hiccup or has the US changed is a good question, We will have to wait and see,
Take US out of AUKUS and things just become awkward. So at the end of the day, the Americans call all the shots, the rest of the folks ride their coattails. For once the Chinese OSINT folks were right, if America truly does start pulling back from alliances, it is over for the rest.
a old question remains : are the UK nukes under a double launch key (one in the POTUS pocket) ??? It changes everything.
What is the objective of AUKUS? Will AUKUS get involved in Taiwan? If the Chinese attack Taiwan, will Australia back the Americans in a war? Japan and SK simply do not have depth in manpower and territory.
If India, backs out of the Quad then you need an Indonesia. Will Australia work with Indonesia against a common threat? Will the Indonesians agree to work with you? The problem that the Americans will have with China now, is they will see how Indian bureaucracy can really do to slow down things. We will buy stuff that we need, everything else will slow down.
So coming back to my query. What will an Aukus achieve without an India or Indonesia. Nothing. Trump played right into the hands of the Chinese by pushing India towards Russia.
Without an India or Indonesia, AUKUS is dead in the water. If you want to take the battle to the Chinese you will need one of these 2. Indonesia has the manpower and can develop economically. But it cannot open a second front.
The only country which can bring in military, economic strength in a second front on its own is India. But without India, Indonesia is a close second in the military (it can be quickly built up) and distant second on the economic side.
Why would Paxtan throw nukes across pops even if they keep shouting from the roof tops that's exactly what they'd do ? They love their a r s e s too much to indulge in such gamesmanship plus there's billions of dollars of business interests they've in Paxtan.
Personally speaking I'd love if they attempt a stunt like that or even successfully carry out a nuke strike or 2 . Gives us the excuse to completely annihilate them .
As it is with existential wars building up in the latter half of this century we can ill afford two islamic neighbours who've a very high estimate of themselves & at the same time harbour delusions of grandeur viz taking over all of India & converting everyone here to Islam.
But let's get back to Australia & the pivotal role it'd play in the defence of Taiwan without which all is lost for the Quad .
After all RAN ships & submarines have the endurance to take them on a non stop circumnavigational trip around the globe at least once isn't it & the AA with it's ~ 25,000 serving personnel & probably an equal amount of reserves are giving the Chinese knocking knees besides being a source of great confidence to Taiwan .
Then there's the RAAF which as per pops is the best AF this part of the world with or without wunderwaffe F-35 . It's all of 96 FA strong with 24 Super Hornets & the rest comprising of wunderwaffe.
PLAN & PLAAF combined must see this as an even bigger threat than the USAF & USN combined along with the JSDF.
PS - I knew you'd step up to replace Paddy someday. Was only a matter of time & a few dozen Fosters with pizzas. Quite obviously , the pizzas are to blame here .
If Trump isn't a puppet of Putin, he's doing everything a puppet would do to break down what the US has done since WW2
Russia doesn't have any tariffs on their billions of dollars export to the US, Which Trump has said he wants to invest more US in Russia
I think you misunderstand what AUKUS is
There is pillar one, which is the sub
More important is Pillar 2
AUKUS Pillar 2, Japan and South Korea
On 16 September 2021, Australia, the UK and the US signed the AUKUS trilateral security partnership. Although not a formal military alliance, AUKUS enables members to develop and transfer advanced military capabilities. AUKUS is intended to facilitate ‘integrated
Pillar 2 originates from ‘The Technical Cooperation Program’ of the Five Eyes countries. It is organised under 8 working groups – ‘innovation’, ‘information-sharing’, and the 6 ‘advanced capabilities’ listed in Australia’s National Defence Strategy:
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The Americans online (particularly the red hats) are already shouting that their leader needs to take over as the new custodian of Greenland, Aussie land, and Canada as well. So much for all the alliance based unity. The boot given to the EU has already caused massive outrage. I think the priorities and values within different parties in this coalition are already surfacing. However, hey, we're not from the developed world and also our military is not 'upto' UK/NZ/AUS standard. It would be best if we sat this one out as these powers contend against one another.
Trump isn't the puppet of Putin. He's the puppet of the Qataris, Saudis and China.
Even if they are, they will just flat out deny that this is the case. Then they'll proceed to make fun of the French. The very same French who can actually act as a deterring factor towards the Russians as they have their own nukes (w/o needing to pander to anyone else for support).