AUKUS : US, UK and Australia forge military alliance to counter China

Picdelamirand-oil

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PM’s trip to Indonesia cancelled amid fallout over AUKUS alliance
September 18, 2021 - 14:35PM



Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s trip to the Indonesian capital Jakarta has been cancelled as the fallout over the AUKUS defence pact continues.
Mr Morrison planned to stop at Indonesia on his way back from Washington next week.
But the Indonesian government said President Joko Widodo was unavailable due to scheduled trips to provinces outside the capital.
Mr Widodo has previously expressed alarm over Australia’s plan to arm itself with a nuclear submarine fleet, saying he’s “deeply concerned over the continuing arms race and power projection in the region”.
It is understood the prime minister spoke with his Indonesian counterpart about the development by phone this week.
He also reached out to the prime ministers of Singapore, Japan and India.
However, government officials do not believe the cancellation of the trip is linked to Indonesia’s unease over the plan.
 

Ashwin

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PM’s trip to Indonesia cancelled amid fallout over AUKUS alliance
September 18, 2021 - 14:35PM



Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s trip to the Indonesian capital Jakarta has been cancelled as the fallout over the AUKUS defence pact continues.
Mr Morrison planned to stop at Indonesia on his way back from Washington next week.
But the Indonesian government said President Joko Widodo was unavailable due to scheduled trips to provinces outside the capital.
Mr Widodo has previously expressed alarm over Australia’s plan to arm itself with a nuclear submarine fleet, saying he’s “deeply concerned over the continuing arms race and power projection in the region”.
It is understood the prime minister spoke with his Indonesian counterpart about the development by phone this week.
He also reached out to the prime ministers of Singapore, Japan and India.
However, government officials do not believe the cancellation of the trip is linked to Indonesia’s unease over the plan.
Meanwhile on the same day.

 

thinkingcap81

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That's very bad for us. We need the Super Hornet competing with the Rafale and Typhoon. It's because of the SH that the French need to provide a competitive price, in case it gets shortlisted. If only the Typhoon competes, then Dassault gets some additional leeway in pricing since the Typhoon is at least 25% more expensive. If we want the US jets off our backs, then it has to be on our terms, not someone else's terms.
Good point. But SH will always compete. I was thinking of a situation where SH is virtually shoved down our throats since of late we are coming much more closer and also becoming dependent on US. 36 Rafales were chosen before we became as close as today plus we had gone through the MMRCA 1.0 and had chosen Rafale. The current situation gives us some room for manoeuvre. Depends on how we negotiate.
It's the same story with the P-75I, although I don't see how the US can provide any sort of compensation here. The point is if the French do not have a competitor, you can kiss your bank balance goodbye. Australia learnt this the hard way.
Agreed. Some European stuff are costlier than US ones.
This is a problem between US and France, so we shouldn't interfere in any way. The SSN export itself opens up a whole new can of worms. Imagine if China and Russia decide to supply nuke subs to Pakistan and Iran resply. I don't really know what the Americans are thinking right now.
Eventually China would have leased a nuke sub to Pak, especially if Pak can blackmail them - i think that Pak has mastered the art of blackmailing much superior powers. Now even the fauj and bloody civilians of Pak are delirious over the Afghan outcome - forget about the covilians being powerless and unhappy with the fauj, they are so much more in sync now - it's a confirmation of a soft coup by the Pak deep state.

Not too hopeful about Russia leasing a nuke to Iran as China and Pak will not agree to it, and neither will US.

Biden has proven himself to be a cold-minded thinker - he just doesn't give a damn about any country but US. He's a sophisticated form of Trump with the added knowledge of geopolitics.
That ain't happening. The French will throw a sissy fit and will be placated. U.S MIC is quite ruthless when it comes to defence deals. So the Super-hornet can't just be discarded..
As i said above, SH isn't going anywhere. We might have more bargaining power now.
 
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randomradio

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Good point. But SH will always compete. I was thinking of a situation where SH is virtually shoved down our throats since of late we are coming much more closer and also becoming dependent on US. 36 Rafales were chosen before we became as close as today plus we had gone through the MMRCA 1.0 and had chosen Rafale. The current situation gives us some room for manoeuvre. Depends on how we negotiate.

People think the GoI will make a political deal and go for the SH for the IAF, but they are nowhere close to being correct. Whenever a political deal is made, it's for the latest tech, not contemporary tech. So if one argues that the US will try to scuttle the Rafale by offering the F-35 instead, then yeah, that's a possibility, but the SH, no way.

Going for anything that's nearing the end of its production run is a bad idea. It's also why we decided to upgrade the MRCA to MMRCA and brought in the Rafale, Typhoon and SH. 'Cause the M2000 line was coming to a close in a few years. SH's could end in just a few years, at the very least the USN has already made its last purchase, with final delivery in 2024. Germany's order of 45 jets can take the line to 2027 or so, but that's about it. Spares and support will increase in price once the main production line shuts down. The worst case scenario for India is we will be the last buyer of the jet. Any cost increase will be thrown on us, which is guaranteed.

An excellent buy for India is any jet that will see its production line going for a minimum of 20 years from the time we receive our first jet. We recieved the MKI in 2002, the production line should be active at least until 2026 or 2027, excellent. We received the Rafale in 2019, the production line could easily cross into the 2040s, excellent. We basically need to buy a jet where we won't end up being the last user.

Eventually China would have leased a nuke sub to Pak, especially if Pak can blackmail them - i think that Pak has mastered the art of blackmailing much superior powers. Now even the fauj and bloody civilians of Pak are delirious over the Afghan outcome - forget about the covilians being powerless and unhappy with the fauj, they are so much more in sync now - it's a confirmation of a soft coup by the Pak deep state.

Not too hopeful about Russia leasing a nuke to Iran as China and Pak will not agree to it, and neither will US.

Biden has proven himself to be a cold-minded thinker - he just doesn't give a damn about any country but US. He's a sophisticated form of Trump with the added knowledge of geopolitics.

Either of them getting a nuke sub is a problem to us.
 
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BMD

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Oops, I think we broke it.

 

AbRaj

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There's no going back for Australia.

The Australia that killed Quad the first time is now all in.
This trio is much more aligned and logical than QUAD
isnt there some thing called nuclear non-proliferation ? no not when done by the west.
This should also pave way for us for direct TT with russia for nuke subs instead of leases.
just assume if same deal would’ve been done between India and Russia. US will already be threatening us with SANCTIONS and what not.

That said, its clearly better deal for Australia’s perspective. Now Royal Australian Nevy will be a Very potent Force in IOR and possibly beyond.
 

randomradio

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Need something bigger than Barrakuda. We need longer endurance SSN unlike France which has lots of regional allies and Bases across the globe for support and replenishment.

Bigger equal less noisy but more money.

SSNs have unlimited endurance by default. You've got it confused with SSKs.
 
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AbRaj

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Bigger equal less noisy but more money.

SSNs have unlimited endurance by default. You've got it confused with SSKs.
Isn’t bigger sub will have more weapon load, more sophisticated sonar and other EWS and sensor suit , food and oxygen stores, larger crew and probably more speed too ?
 

randomradio

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Isn’t bigger sub will have more weapon load, more sophisticated sonar and other EWS and sensor suit , food and oxygen stores, larger crew and probably more speed too ?

Yes, to the larger sensors.

What we really want is to increase the refuelling cycle of the reactor. The French have managed to increase it from 7 years on the Rubis to 10 years on Barracuda. We also should be at 7-10 years with the Arihant, probably closer to 7 than 10, we will be lucky to manage 10 on our future subs. But the Americans have built life-of-the-ship reactors, so the Virginia class gets its full 33-year life without any refuelling. Now they are aiming for 40 years. We will be lucky to reach 15 years or more, but it should be possible with French help. Whereas with American help, we should be able to design our own life-of-the-ship reactors and skip a stage entirely.

The newest Russians subs have full life reactors too, up to 25 years on the Yasen. Don't know to what extent they are willing to help. Perhaps we are paying them off with the second and potential third Akula for such a design.

@Picdelamirand-oil
Why doesn't the Barracuda have a life-of-the-ship reactor? I hope the PANG's getting such a reactor though.
 
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screambowl

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Now since US has moved out from Afghanistan, they will now aim other area. That's how it is. But not anytime soon. There are now capitalistic differences among NATO countries within and that's where China can actually fill in the gap.

If Chinese are cunning they will definitely try to exploit this situation. Or have already started. Finally, Biden is not as good businessman as Trump.
 

Picdelamirand-oil

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Yes, to the larger sensors.

What we really want is to increase the refuelling cycle of the reactor. The French have managed to increase it from 7 years on the Rubis to 10 years on Barracuda. We also should be at 7-10 years with the Arihant, probably closer to 7 than 10, we will be lucky to manage 10 on our future subs. But the Americans have built life-of-the-ship reactors, so the Virginia class gets its full 33-year life without any refuelling. Now they are aiming for 40 years. We will be lucky to reach 15 years or more, but it should be possible with French help. Whereas with American help, we should be able to design our own life-of-the-ship reactors and skip a stage entirely.

The newest Russians subs have full life reactors too, up to 25 years on the Yasen. Don't know to what extent they are willing to help. Perhaps we are paying them off with the second and potential third Akula for such a design.

@Picdelamirand-oil
Why doesn't the Barracuda have a life-of-the-ship reactor? I hope the PANG's getting such a reactor though.
This is harder to do with a reactor that uses low-enriched fuel.
 
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Lolwa

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Worries about secrets reaching Russia I imagine.
Nah more like we are already in bed with the Russians. It doesn't make sense for them to share tech with us when we already have the Russians. For all the indo-US bon-homie. We are far from being inside American orbit of influence. The French are much more inside American orbit than we are. We are just too big for the Americans to share such tech. It's logical. The maximum tech sharing with the Americans will only happen in aerospace,robotics,drones,infantry and armoured. Nowhere near the actual crown jewels like nuclear propulsion or other niche tech..
 
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