Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict 2020

Volcano

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But it hasn't captured any land. I don't think that Azerbaijan even planned for this invasion. The way they have lost men seems that they were manipulated by the Turks to invade and take nagorno karabakh. Without the drones the performance of the Azeris have been lacking whether it is to infantry or armoured. The armenians have been able to hold them without much out side help.

Azerbaijan is winning the war. The amount of equipments lost by pro Armenian militants and Armanian military is huge and it cannot be replaced easily. They do not have enough man power to replace personal loss either. Total population of nagorno karabakh is just 1.5 Lakhs. Losses are mounting and it's not sustainable.

Azarbaijani drones are clearing entire battle fields. If the war last for 1 month or more, Azarbaijan can easily capture atleast half of nagorno karabakh.


Azerbaijani drones
 

Lolwa

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Azerbaijan is winning the war. The amount of equipments lost by pro Armenian militants and Armanian military is huge and it cannot be replaced easily. They do not have enough man power to replace personal loss either. Total population of nagorno karabakh is just 1.5 Lakhs. Losses are mounting and it's not sustainable.

Azarbaijani drones are clearing entire battle fields. If the war last for 1 month or more, Azarbaijan can easily capture atleast half of nagorno karabakh.


Azerbaijani drones
The drone propaganda is good and the Armenians are losing men but it's not a huge loss compared to the Azeris. The ground invasion of the Azeris has been repulsed so many times and they haven't capture anything. They are still fighting the same points they started with. The ground troops of Azerbaijan are demotivated and don't seem to be regular soldiers. The armenians have looked way better in the ground war. Drones are the only part of the war where the Azeris are not looking bad. Plus they are now getting fighters from Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan. And they haven't been able to capture much. Earlier the Azeri P.M said they captured Hadrut then the Armenian PR replied a tweet showing Hadrut was still in Armenian control. The way the Azeris are fighting until turkey doesn't introduce it's army and airforce, it will become a war of attrition and Azerbaijan population might experience war fatigue. A 1 month war will finish both their economies...
 

Volcano

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The drone propaganda is good and the Armenians are losing men but it's not a huge loss compared to the Azeris. The ground invasion of the Azeris has been repulsed so many times and they haven't capture anything. They are still fighting the same points they started with. The ground troops of Azerbaijan are demotivated and don't seem to be regular soldiers. The armenians have looked way better in the ground war. Drones are the only part of the war where the Azeris are not looking bad. Plus they are now getting fighters from Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan. And they haven't been able to capture much. Earlier the Azeri P.M said they captured Hadrut then the Armenian PR replied a tweet showing Hadrut was still in Armenian control. The way the Azeris are fighting until turkey doesn't introduce it's army and airforce, it will become a war of attrition and Azerbaijan population might experience war fatigue. A 1 month war will finish both their economies...

Armenian military seems better in ground, but fighting under enemy air superiority is not fun in modern battle field. Hundreds of tanks and armoured vehicles artillery already lost. Armenia is a small country and break away state is even smaller with just 150,000 peoples. War of attrition favours Azerbaijan.


It seems like Hills surrounding Hadrut is in Azerbaijan hands and city itself is under Armenians.

Azerbaijan military released a video showing their positions from Hills mostly. Azerbaijan ground force does seems to have taken the city.


Azerbaijan also converted old Soviet an 2 biplanes to drones and using them as bait and for suicide missions.
 

Lolwa

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Armenian military seems better in ground, but fighting under enemy air superiority is not fun in modern battle field. Hundreds of tanks and armoured vehicles artillery already lost. Armenia is a small country and break away state is even smaller with just 150,000 peoples. War of attrition favours Azerbaijan.


It seems like Hills surrounding Hadrut is in Azerbaijan hands and city itself is under Armenians.

Azerbaijan military released a video showing their positions from Hills mostly. Azerbaijan ground force does seems to have taken the city.


Azerbaijan also converted old Soviet an 2 biplanes to drones and using them as bait and for suicide missions.
Don't know the Armenians did come up with videoes wher the city was in their control. Coming down and invading the city would be interesting but the Azeri troops are not just as well motivated and determined compared to their Armenian counterparts. They are sending rookie recruits and militias as invading forces. I doubt Azerbaijan will make much of a dent in the Armenian defense until the Turks do not introduce themselves in the war. The war of attrition is pointless when you are fighting a force that is fighting for its survival. The Vietnamese lost way more men and machines still they prevailed and that was with the well oiled U.S war Machine. The Azeris are not that well trained or even motivated and their air superiority is limited to drones an aircraft related air war will result in the Armenians dominating be ause of the su30's they have the Azeris don't have any good aircrafts and are mostly dated. And you are also ignoring the artsakh defense force. The combined strength of artsakh defense force and the Armenian army is bigger than the Azeris.
 

Volcano

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Territory captured by Azerbaijan in Yellow and blue
IMG_20201019_150838.jpg


 

randomradio

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When I used to put this video up on PDF every chance I got, the first 10 seconds, no one used to understand the importance of it.


Sadly, while the IAF SAM network has been modernising at a very rapid pace, the army's modernisation has been stagnant. They only have 2 regiments capable of defeating such drones with high reliability. Hopefully, IA's remaining 2 regiments of Akash SAM are contracted this year. Apparently, QRSAM is to begin inductions from the end of 2021, whereas MRSAM will become ready for inductions after 2023 (1 regiment a year to 2028), so both will take until 2030 counting delays. Worst of all, the SPAD-GMS deal has been withdrawn.

The IAF will be 70% modern by 2023. With the Akash Mk2 covering the remaining 30% after 2023.
 

Volcano

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When I used to put this video up on PDF every chance I got, the first 10 seconds, no one used to understand the importance of it.


Sadly, while the IAF SAM network has been modernising at a very rapid pace, the army's modernisation has been stagnant. They only have 2 regiments capable of defeating such drones with high reliability. Hopefully, IA's remaining 2 regiments of Akash SAM are contracted this year. Apparently, QRSAM is to begin inductions from the end of 2021, whereas MRSAM will become ready for inductions after 2023 (1 regiment a year to 2028), so both will take until 2030 counting delays. Worst of all, the SPAD-GMS deal has been withdrawn.

The IAF will be 70% modern by 2023. With the Akash Mk2 covering the remaining 30% after 2023.

Army need to induct short range, cost effective SAMs in large numbers to deal with drones in the future battle field. These armed drones cost as low as a tank and bring far more firepower and flexibility to battle field.


Drones are destabilising battle field and counter measures are no where near where it should be. In future even smaller cheep drone swarm ammunition are gonna come in large numbers and infantry is going to be in big trouble.
 

randomradio

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Army need to induct short range, cost effective SAMs in large numbers to deal with drones in the future battle field. These armed drones cost as low as a tank and bring far more firepower and flexibility to battle field.


Drones are destabilising battle field and counter measures are no where near where it should be. In future even smaller cheep drone swarm ammunition are gonna come in large numbers and infantry is going to be in big trouble.

Large drones need MRSAM. PGMs and missiles need QRSAM. Small drones that swarm need CIWS, and CIWS can be DEW or projectile, or even SPAD-GMS. The army currently has none. Quite literally, none.

The only good thing is the army is getting upgraded Shilkas and guns, so there is some small amount of protection available, but it's obviously not enough, and these are merely the very last line of defence, not multi-tier capability that's actually required.

In a limited war, it's a little bit fine since the army will operate under IAF's SAM cover, not to mention fighter jets. But in a full scale war, areas not under the protection of SAMs will be extremely vulnerable. The only line of defence outside the IAF's SAM range would be fighter jets, but they are not always available. Another layer of defence is armed helicopters. But these are not available in the numbers needed that can create a 24/7 presence in the air, it may never be achieved anyway. So the only hope is ground fire, and that we do not have.
 
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Volcano

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Azerbaijan captures more territory. As I previously said in this thread, 1 month war will result in Azerbaijan capturing atleast half of NK

 

Volcano

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Azerbaijan forces captured almost entire Iranian border with breakaway Republic.

War of attrition started taking effect on Armania and now Azerbaijan advances are far rapid
IMG_20201023_181824.jpg
 
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Volcano

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Its equally sad & a concern for us. Sad part is Armenia is losing the game, worrying part is Azerbaijan is using effectively Turkish armaments & those hardwares may end up with Pakistan.

Yes. It gives a glimpse of how modern warfare might look like.

I hope IA Generals are keeping an eye. If their plan is still Armoured thrust with T-72s and T-90s, they are going to get slaughtered in modern battle field, filled with atgms and drones.

1) Tanks, outdated, vulnerable
2) Cheep drones causing devastation.
 
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randomradio

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Azerbaijan forces captured almost entire Iranian border with breakaway Republic.

War of attrition started taking effect on Armania and now Azerbaijan advances are far rapid
View attachment 18411

Blocking the Armenia-Iran border will be a devastating blow to Armenia. And it will block the ability of Russia to assist Armenia with supplies. I wonder if that's a red line for Russia.
 

randomradio

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Yes. It gives a glimpse of how modern warfare might look like.

I hope IA Generals are keeping an eye. If their plan is still Armoured thrust with T-72s and T-90s, they are going to get slaughtered in modern battle field, filled with atgms and drones.

1) Tanks, outdated, vulnerable
2) Cheep drones causing devastation.

Your advice is more relevant to the PA generals than the IA. I mean what you see is what the PA will experience, not the IA.
 

A Person

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Blocking the Armenia-Iran border will be a devastating blow to Armenia. And it will block the ability of Russia to assist Armenia with supplies. I wonder if that's a red line for Russia.
They're blocking the Artsakh-Iran border, not the Armenia-Iran border. To do the latter they'd have to occupy officially-Armenian soil, which is indeed a redline for Russia. While occupying Artsakh is technically legal for them to do since the breakaway republic does not enjoy official recognition and is considered part of Azerbaijan.
 

rone

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Yes. It gives a glimpse of how modern warfare might look like.

I hope IA Generals are keeping an eye. If their plan is still Armoured thrust with T-72s and T-90s, they are going to get slaughtered in modern battle field, filled with atgms and drones.

1) Tanks, outdated, vulnerable
2) Cheep drones causing devastation.
It won't work either for India and Pakistan Botha ode have well prepared and layered AD unlike Armenia India and Pakistan have every robust modern Sam and AAA systems these system became more pain in a.. For any drone power, the thing we have to look out for ew and sead missions by paf they have stand off jamer aircraft aa d20 which can help them to certine degree we only have fleet escort su30mki ew versions, we need to repurose or build stand off jamer aircraft on Gulfstream or Ember's air frames, future war more or less look like war game simulation it became more digitalized
 

Volcano

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It won't work either for India and Pakistan Botha ode have well prepared and layered AD unlike Armenia India and Pakistan have every robust modern Sam and AAA systems these system became more pain in a.. For any drone power, the thing we have to look out for ew and sead missions by paf they have stand off jamer aircraft aa d20 which can help them to certine degree we only have fleet escort su30mki ew versions, we need to repurose or build stand off jamer aircraft on Gulfstream or Ember's air frames, future war more or less look like war game simulation it became more digitalized

SAMs only cover a fraction of the front. We need way more SAMs to have any effective defence against cheep Drones. It is not possible to have any effective layered AD in most part of the front with the current numbers.

Just last week, Armania lost 3 batteries of S-300 against cheep Azeri Drones that cost even less than a Tank. It's a cheep weapon that brings a good bang for the buck. So it's inevitable that they will be used widely in the future battle field and there simply isn't enough airdefece systems.
 

Volcano

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Your advice is more relevant to the PA generals than the IA. I mean what you see is what the PA will experience, not the IA.

Sure, It is a problem for PA as well. Both PA and IA armour performance in 1965 and 71 in western front was horrible with few KM thrusts at best. Now a days, armour is more vulnerable than ever and scope of any such offensive is even more limited. With just 32 squadron, the ability of airforce to gain air superiority in short time is questionable. Any offensive in the current situation probably going to be way more harder than peoples anticipating. This whole notion of smashing Pakistan army's capabilities in 10-15 days and occupying chunks of territory looks more like a pipe dream than anything else.