New Delhi veut accroitre le format de la Marine indienne de 30 % d’ici à 2030 pour faire face à la Chine
New Delhi wants to increase the size of the Indian Navy by 30% by 2030 to take on China
Over the past twenty years or so, the Indian Navy has undertaken a vast effort to modernise and expand its fleet. Several emblematic programmes have been launched during this period, including P75 for 6 Kalvari-class conventional submarines derived from Naval Group's Scorpene, the 45,000-tonne aircraft carrier INS Vikrant and the Kolkata-class destroyers of Project 15A.
While efforts and budgets have undoubtedly increased, the Indian Navy still suffers from two major handicaps. The first is related to the difficulty in the country of making rapid progress on major programmes, mobilising large sums of money.
Obstacles to the Indian Navy's progress
Many obstacles, both political and industrial, often delay or even derail defence programmes, even though they are critical. For example, the P-75i programme, which is supposed to build six new anaerobic propulsion submarines, has still not selected its main contractor, even though it was launched four years ago.
The second disadvantage is the meteoric growth of the Chinese fleet, which is being kept under control far faster than it can itself progress. This creates an obvious magnifying glass effect on its own difficulties, and tends to increase the political tensions surrounding these security issues.
Indeed, although frequently presented as aligned with China within the BRICS, New Delhi is above all directly threatened by the rise in power of the People's Liberation Army, whether on the Himalayan high plateaux, the scene of recurring tensions between the two countries, or with regard to Beijing's intensive military support for Islamabad, India's sworn enemy since its creation.
The challenge of the Chinese and Pakistani navies
The Indian Navy, for its part, is directly threatened by a Chinese Navy whose format is evolving as rapidly as its modernisation, and which is also actively sharing its own advances with its Pakistani ally.
In recent years, the Pakistani Navy has ordered, in addition to the four Barbur-class corvettes derived from the Turkish Ada, eight Hangor-class AIP Type 039A submarines and four Tughril-class Type 054 AP anti-submarine frigates.
In fact, the combat ships that make up the Indian Navy today are woefully inadequate to meet the security challenges facing China in the Bay of Bengal and Pakistan in the Arabian Sea.
In the space of two decades, the Chinese Navy has gone from a coastal defence fleet to a direct rival of the US Navy on the world's oceans.
The current 127-ship fleet is due to be increased to 160 ships by 2030, an increase of 25% planned for the next seven years, and to reach 175 naval units, or even 200, by 2035.
68 naval vessels on order to date
To achieve this, Indian shipyards can currently draw on a particularly full order book, with 68 naval units officially on order to date.
These range from the 7,400-tonne Visakhapatnam class destroyer (2 delivered, 2 under construction) to the 700-tonne Anti-Submarine Warfare Shallow Water Craft (ASW-SWC) corvettes (16 units), not forgetting the 7 6,500-tonne Nilgiri class stealth frigates and the 5 large 44,000-tonne support ships currently known as the HSL class.
However, most of these ships will simply replace units already in service that have reached their limits, such as the Raiput-class destroyers and the 7 Veer-class missile corvettes that entered service in the 1980s.
It is therefore essential for the Indian Navy to rapidly launch certain critical programmes, such as the AIP P75i submarine programme, as well as programmes for destroyers, frigates, corvettes and OPVs to follow on from the classes currently on order.
Additional Kalvari class submarines and Vikrant class aircraft carriers
This gap between operational necessity and programmatic reality is at the heart of the future order for 3 additional Scorpene submarines announced by Narendra Modi during his official visit to France for the 14 July celebrations.
It is this pressure, in part, that is currently weighing on the future of India's new aircraft carrier, with the Admiralty preferring to build a new ship in the class of the 45,000-tonne INS Vikrant, rather than a new, and therefore long and expensive, 65,000-tonne aircraft carrier equipped with catapults, as previously mentioned.
This is also the reason why the Indian Navy is prioritising the construction of a fleet of nuclear attack submarines among all its future programmes, a field in which France seems to have been asked to help, and which has weighed heavily in the order for the 3 additional Scorpene submarines to come.
Be that as it may, if the Indian Navy is indeed to rise to the Chinese challenge, and its fleet of more than 360 ships today is set to grow to more than 500 by 2035, it will have to find the means to overcome all the difficulties, particularly political and industrial, which are considerably hampering its development.
In this respect, it should be noted that these same difficulties are also affecting India's air and land forces, with all the armed forces engaged in a race against time to keep pace with Beijing and Islamabad, who are for their part advancing at breakneck speed.