Macron wants strategic Paris-Delhi-Canberra axis amid Pacific tension

[Ginvincible]

I just browsed this thread and I am a bit skeptical. France and India have a lot of areas they can work together on and I agree that France and India have a shared interest in containing China's influence in the Indo-Pacific, but to what extent? I believe this is a game that France doesn't have a lot of skin in compared to nations like India and Australia. I won't say that France is unreliable, but they don't have nearly as much to lose. Furthermore, it is not in their interest to empower India too much. It's highly likely that France's concern about China today will become France's concern about India in a few decades.

On the topic of Russia...

If the effects of global warming continue without a dramatic decrease, every nation will want to be Russia's friend in a few decades. As it stands, within the next century the Siberian permafrost will melt, exposing the fertile land and rich mineral deposits that lay beneath it (it's also pretty bad for the atmosphere because of release of trapped gasses but thats really a discussion for another thread). Time will tell if the foreign interest manifests itself in investment or invasion in the Russian Far East.

Regardless that's a far away future and it's hard to predict how France and Russia will engage each other long term on European matters, let alone how France and India will form Indo-Pacific alliances.

 

[A Person]

but to what extent?

To this extent:

Note the strategic partnerships France has sought recently are with India and Australia.

Furthermore, it is not in their interest to empower India too much. It's highly likely that France's concern about China today will become France's concern about India in a few decades.

Why? Are you saying India is going to become a totalitarian revisionist country bent on territorial expansion?

 

[Ginvincible]

To this extent:

Note the strategic partnerships France has sought recently are with India and Australia.

Point taken. Overseas territories are important strategic assets with many citizens.

Why? Are you saying India is going to become a totalitarian revisionist country bent on territorial expansion?

Does India have to be a totalitarian revisionist country bent on territorial expansion for Western nations to care about it gaining too much influence and trade power? Western people of the 70s and 80s thought of Japan the same way western people of today think of China. If Japan of the 1970s-80s wasn't basically a US protectorate, and had a more independent foreign policy, then the vocal anti-Japanese sentiment in the populace might have carried into the government.[/QUOTE]

 

[RATHORE]

Does India have to be a totalitarian revisionist country bent on territorial expansion for Western nations to care about it gaining too much influence and trade power? Western people of the 70s and 80s thought of Japan the same way western people of today think of China. If Japan of the 1970s-80s wasn't basically a US protectorate, and had a more independent foreign policy, then the vocal anti-Japanese sentiment in the populace might have carried into the government.

This is true, and one actually sees similar feelings/attitude towards India and even Indian immigrants (mainly techies on H1B's) albeit on a much much smaller scale in the US. But I don't think India or Indians will ever be viewed as negatively as China is. And overall I think in the case of France, they're more comfortable with countries like India rising and charting an independent path (they helped us quite a bit) towards a more multipolar world.

 

[LoneWolfSandeep]

Furthermore, it is not in their interest to empower India too much.

I dont know which world you live in, but looking at picture in 2-3 decades time, it be in best interest of Russia/EU & even USA, to build India as a counter force to China. More India rise, more Russia/EU/USA can breath easy as less Dragon breathing down there neck .

British seem to still hung over the colonial past, as do their media & cant come to grip of future realities. there are so confused & lost, anyone need not look beyond Brexit fiasco to see real lack of directions. Reviving cold war & rallying behind USA is all they know, hope they realize the future ought not to be Unipolar (aka China) or BiPolor (aka China/USA) but instead Multipolar (China/EU/India/Russia/USA)

Multipolarity of like minded democratic countries is key, bound by common interests.

Atleast 3 of 4 (EU/India/Russia/USA) will require to combine to counter china in near future. And i dont see any option minus India as viable.

Honestly canberra is not a good bet, its too much financially compromised from within to China - its Head/Heart will never meet in reality. Nothing more than wannabe.

 

[_Anonymous_]

This is true, and one actually sees similar feelings/attitude towards India and even Indian immigrants (mainly techies on H1B's) albeit on a much much smaller scale in the US. But I don't think India or Indians will ever be viewed as negatively as China is. And overall I think in the case of France, they're more comfortable with countries like India rising and charting an independent path (they helped us quite a bit) towards a more multipolar world.

It's not a question of whether we are viewed as a revanchist power or not. It's more to do with a threat to western hegemony and perhaps a sub conscious racism that's not too far from the surface. It's typical to what you see in rural India where the erstwhile feudal elite are suddenly faced with the subaltern castes acquiring power and wealth almost overnight , thereby upturning the social order which has stood for centuries.
For whatever the veneer the present feudal elite wears, deep down they know there's no mistaking the fact that they know it's only a matter of time before the hold on power that these elites now command will slip too. There's this deep sense of apprehension unlikely to be assuaged.


Besides let's face it, for all the Tom tomming about democratic liberal values and all that blah, civilizationally what's common between India & France or even with the US or with Russia for that matter. There's little commonality with the UK too save for the fact that they ruled us for 2 centuries, common law in practise here, inheirited democratic traditions and the usage of the English language. Heck, there's little in common with China too in spite of them being next doors except for family values, certain cultural commonalities and values.

 

[_Anonymous_]

I dont know which world you live in, but looking at picture in 2-3 decades time, it be in best interest of Russia/EU & even USA, to build India as a counter force to China. More India rise, more Russia/EU/USA can breath easy as less Dragon breathing down there neck .

British seem to still hung over the colonial past, as do their media & cant come to grip of future realities. there are so confused & lost, anyone need not look beyond Brexit fiasco to see real lack of directions. Reviving cold war & rallying behind USA is all they know, hope they realize the future ought not to be Unipolar (aka China) or BiPolor (aka China/USA) but instead Multipolar (China/EU/India/Russia/USA)

Multipolarity of like minded democratic countries is key, bound by common interests.

Atleast 3 of 4 (EU/India/Russia/USA) will require to combine to counter china in near future. And i dont see any option minus India as viable.

Honestly canberra is not a good bet, its too much financially compromised from within to China - its Head/Heart will never meet in reality. Nothing more than wannabe.

There's a deep sense in the Western world which nobody will admit to is that in their zeal to put down the USSR, they overdid the promotion of China. You will find post facto rationalism in that the US promoted China as a destination for investment and thereby boosted their rapid industrialization in the hope that China would eventually , with reasonable prosperity , turn into a stable liberal democracy with a capitalistic economy . In other words they'd adopt western systems and like Japan accept the US as it's Overlord.

9/11 happened and the US's attention & by extension that of the West was diverted for nearly 2 decades. By the time the West gathered its wits, China was in a different league. I don't know how many of you recall the fact they in the initial days of the George W Bush presidency, there was something known as the Hainan Incident.

Hainan Island incident - Wikipedia


The US was trying to contain China by bullying it. The sense, ideas & priorities were right but fate intervened and 9/11 happened. When the history of this century is written , it'd say that the biggest gainer of 9/11 was China.


To come back to India, in the light of the above info, you can be sure that the west , with the benefit of hindsight, wouldn't Go all out to embrace India and ensure its growth as it did to China . All technology shared will be adequate & never more than what's required and the same will go for investment which would never be handsome.At the same time , let's face it, we haven't done ourselves many favours.The West isn't likely to repeat the same mistake twice.

 

[LoneWolfSandeep]

There's a deep sense in the Western world which nobody will admit to is that in their zeal to put down the USSR, they overdid the promotion of China. You will find post facto rationalism in that the US promoted China as a destination for investment and thereby boosted their rapid industrialization in the hope that China would eventually , with reasonable prosperity , turn into a stable liberal democracy with a capitalistic economy . In other words they'd adopt western systems and like Japan accept the US as it's Overlord.

9/11 happened and the US's attention & by extension that of the West was diverted for nearly 2 decades. By the time the West gathered its wits, China was in a different league. I don't know how many of you recall the fact they in the initial days of the George W Bush presidency, there was something known as the Hainan Incident.

Hainan Island incident - Wikipedia


The US was trying to contain China by bullying it. The sense, ideas & priorities were right but fate intervened and 9/11 happened. When the history of this century is written , it'd say that the biggest gainer of 9/11 was China.


To come back to India, in the light of the above info, you can be sure that the west , with the benefit of hindsight, wouldn't Go all out to embrace India and ensure its growth as it did to China . All technology shared will be adequate & never more than what's required and the same will go for investment which would never be handsome.At the same time , let's face it, we haven't done ourselves many favours.The West isn't likely to repeat the same mistake twice.

West wont make the same mistake twice - as u quoted [hope that China would eventually , with reasonable prosperity , turn into a stable liberal democracy with a capitalistic economy]
coz India is already all of that above, neither India it doing widescale industrial espionage across globe, reverse engineering, taking over majority of global ports or has Expansionist tendencies unlike China.
India will get there with support (early) or without (in due time) - everyone can freely choose who they are most comfortable with. Be it in China camp or a counterbalance camp (aka India+)

 

[_Anonymous_]

West wont make the same mistake twice - as u quoted [hope that China would eventually , with reasonable prosperity , turn into a stable liberal democracy with a capitalistic economy] coz India is already all of that above, neither India it doing widescale industrial espionage across globe, reverse engineering, taking over majority of global ports or has Expansionist tendencies unlike China.
India will get there with support (early) or without (in due time) - everyone can freely choose who they are most comfortable with. Be it in China camp or a counterbalance camp (aka India+)

True, we don't indulge in the kind of activities that they do. But that's not how international geopolitics work. There's little reward for being a good boy. My larger point remains that having propped up China, the West isn't likely to go all out to promote India. And there's certainly no question of being in India's camp. They want India in their camp.

 

[LoneWolfSandeep]

True, we don't indulge in the kind of activities that they do. But that's not how international geopolitics work. There's little reward for being a good boy. My larger point remains that having propped up China, the West isn't likely to go all out to promote India. And there's certainly no question of being in India's camp. They want India in their camp.

When I said India+ camp it meant on equatable basis with other powers
.
Lets examine from various countries prospecpective -
USA - long term conterbalance to China - calls India a major & perhaps the only truly option for future USA security, including Japan, but stressing India
Russia - Believe Russia/India always had a understanding in this matter
Japan - India & USA is who they turn too for long term Via China
France/EU - Didnt France & India recently have a naval base sharing agreement with India, to what effect.

So from which ever country prospective you see - India is a common element hence quoted (aka India+) not (India led)
India will never fall in any camp, unless its based on equatable basis, whoever wants to lead it, reevaluate, as its not happening

 

[RATHORE]

civilizationally what's common between India & France or even with the US

You're right to a great extent; although I definitely believe that our core ideology/spirit as a civilization meshes quite well with that of the French Thinkers of the Age of Enlightenment (whose ideas formed the basis of the French Revolution, American Revolution and later those countries' Constitutions).

 

[_Anonymous_]

You're right to a great extent; although I definitely believe that our core ideology/spirit as a civilization meshes quite well with that of the French Thinkers of the Age of Enlightenment (whose ideas formed the basis of the French Revolution, American Revolution and later those countries' Constitutions).

But those commonalities by itself doesn't reinforce a sense of fraternity.They're feel good factors. Right now, the French are allied with India or seeking deeper engagement to confront China, for want of a better word. Once that goal is met, do you think they'd facilitate our growth or assuming we don't need their help having achieved our national goals on our own, will that sense of deep engagement or that fraternal spirit continue? That was my larger point.

 

[LoneWolfSandeep]

But those commonalities by itself doesn't reinforce a sense of fraternity.They're feel good factors. Right now, the French are allied with India or seeking deeper engagement to confront China, for want of a better word. Once that goal is met, do you think they'd facilitate our growth or assuming we don't need their help having achieved our national goals on our own, will that sense of deep engagement or that fraternal spirit continue? That was my larger point.

China is not going anywhere, so nothing changes with French/India engagement any time soon in this century.
Unless you implying China breakup like Soviet, sure then world & India geopolitical alignments with shift based on new realities. Its on a big BUT & IF scenario, not based on eminent reality. Till then its mutual gain only working together - lets not be sentimental its not for eternity, nothing is

 

[BMD]

Russia is aware what the economy & military power, China will have in 20-30 years & its secretly very worried - They have gone on war in past & any truce with china only means China settle it when they have upper hand. As they say avenge the shame, till then smile.
Same case with India-China. hence India-Russia
USA has been a unreliably partner of late for EU & rest of world - USA has already sanctioned some EU banks & in one case $8billion was the price. France/EU coundnt do anything to stop USA financial bullying.
Russia is land surplus country, it has no hunger for more, infact Russia sold alaska region to USA earlier if anyone reads history. So no EU has no real threat from Russia. Its played up in media for decades now due to NATO pact. But in 2-3 decades times China be 4-5 times bigger threat than Russia. And China has expansionist tendencies & not a democracy either.

Infact USA has good relations with India as do Russia, when trump came to power, USA lost a grand opportunity to create a USA-India-Russia alliance, which Russia was giving open signs it is interested, but USA secret state has hijacked that option & started another cold war of sorts with Britain as ally.

Its logical - powered by France/Germany the EU will come to a understanding with Russia for mutual protection in future. Just as India has with Russia.

Only fools plan for today only, visionary plan for 2-3 decades. And the real threat is in 2-3 decades. when no single grouping be sufficient.
Its China-China-China only.
Hence logical Paris-Delhi axis in Indo-Pacific & soon a Paris-Moscow or is there one already in place but secret

I'd say it's the other way round. The EU has been an unreliable partner for the US. You'll find the EU also fined several US companies. The sanctions relate to Iran.

Russia had to sell Alaska to the US because they feared Britain would take it given Canada in 19th century. Please pay attention to the links I've already posted on the Baltics, not to mention Ukraine and the Balkans. Russia is very active there. They have also hosted several joint military drills with China.


US 'closely tracking' as Chinese navy in the Baltics for war games with Russia
US 'closely tracking' as Chinese navy in the Baltics for war games with Russia
Chinese warships will join Vladimir Putin’s navy in the Baltic Sea on Friday ahead of war games which are being watched closely by Western powers.

Russia launches biggest war games in decades | The Japan Times
Russia launches biggest war games in decades
MOSCOW - Russia began its biggest war games since the fall of the Soviet Union on Tuesday close to its border with China, mobilizing 300,000 troops in a show of force that will include joint exercises with the Chinese army.

China, Russia Launch Naval Drills In Far East
China, Russia Launch Naval Drills In Far East

Russia broke the INF Treaty by deploying land-based cruise missiles exceeding 500km in range.

India or the EU relying on Russia for protection is like asking the fox to guard the hen house. Russia will always choose China over India. The problem is that Russia and China share an ideology of state before democracy. The land dispute they will manage because neither of them has an option. Russia has too many nukes for China to invade it.

The EU is useless as a military power.

 

[BMD]

But those commonalities by itself doesn't reinforce a sense of fraternity.They're feel good factors. Right now, the French are allied with India or seeking deeper engagement to confront China, for want of a better word. Once that goal is met, do you think they'd facilitate our growth or assuming we don't need their help having achieved our national goals on our own, will that sense of deep engagement or that fraternal spirit continue? That was my larger point.

Perhaps India will join the EU.

 

[BMD]

So would you say that in the future, there will be an Eurasian block of Western Europe + Russia, an Oceanian block of the Five Eyes, and an East Asian block of China and satellite countries?

The most likely alliance by far is Russia, China (plus satellites) and DPRK vs NATO plus Australia, Japan, ROK and ROC. Russia is not ideologically aligned with Western democracy, or Indian democracy and Turkey is a perfect example of what happens when a member of an organisation has vastly different values.

 

[LoneWolfSandeep]

I'd say it's the other way round. The EU has been an unreliable partner for the US.

Oh you mean EU not following USA unilateral dictate, makes them unreliable, interesting. Sorry cant expect whole world to be USA sniffing tail like Britain.

You'll find the EU also fined several US companies.

Who did who first is question? EU didnt fire first salvo.
Your basis of argument is all wrong, hence wrong conclusions too

 

[LoneWolfSandeep]

Perhaps India will join the EU.

Good Pot you smoking there , here have a reality will hit soon, have faith

 

[BMD]

Oh you mean EU not following USA unilateral dictate, makes them unreliable, interesting. Sorry cant expect whole world to be USA sniffing tail like Britain.

The EU not pulling their weight as regards defence spending, i.e. not meeting the agreed 2% of GDP threshold.

Who did who first is question? EU didnt fire first salvo.
Your basis of argument is all wrong, hence wrong conclusions too

Err.... yeah they did actually.

Five reasons why Europe fines Google and the US tech sector
A Brief History of the Impact of E.U. Antitrust Fines on Tech Stocks

The EU has actually helped the Chinese get competitive in the tech sector by fining US companies.

 

[LoneWolfSandeep]

Err.... yeah they did actually.

Five reasons why Europe fines Google and the US tech sector
A Brief History of the Impact of E.U. Antitrust Fines on Tech Stocks

Thats a funny prospective - getting away from topic of US dictate not being followed & resultant fines to quoting legitamise fines for unfair/fraud practices by companies unrealted to event.
If i quoted VW paid $25 billion to USA, how it be relevant to discussion, they cheated & played unfairly & paid price. USA has a history of sanctions & Fines - if you like can dig from 1950's too.
But is any of theses companies fines related to Unilateral Dictate not followed by other & then resultant fines??

Through 3rd party unilateral sanctions, USA tried to dictate India not to buy Russian arms, what happened Quad got cold reception & India bought $10 billion worth of equipment from Russia in 6 months.