US invasion of Venezuela 2026
- Thread starter Ankit Kumar
- Start date
bro like what? nah this world isnt real, im living in some nightmarish comedy skit for sure
Looks like EIC talks like EIC Walks like EIC, definitely it's east India company,
So we can expect first war of independence & purna Swaraj venuezela movement
Actually this isn't a far fetched scenario. It's not going to be easy either. There's some resistance in Venezuela . If the US manages to put it down & start extracting oil within a year , you're definitely looking at them coming down on Iran like a ton of bricks.
China won't do anything as they aren't in a position to do squat. What they can do instead is tighten the levers they've viz supplies of REM , etc .
Russia Accuses U.S. of Stoking 'Military-Political Tension' With Tanker Seizure - The Moscow Times
Russia on Thursday accused the United States of stoking tensions and threatening international shipping with its seizure of a Russian-flagged oil tanker in the North Atlantic a day earlier.
Russia on Thursday accused the United States of stoking tensions and threatening international shipping with its seizure of a Russian-flagged oil tanker in the North Atlantic a day earlier.
The U.S. has said the ship carried oil for states like Venezuela, Russia and Iran in violation of Western sanctions and seized it after an American raid toppled Moscow's ally Nicolás Maduro in Caracas.
Moscow's Foreign Ministry said the move will "only result in further military and political tensions," adding that it was worried by "Washington's willingness to generate acute international crisis situations."
The U.S. seizure came as Washington grew frustrated with Moscow as little progress on its diplomatic push to end the war in Ukraine has been made.
It is exactly that, earlier it was neo-colonialism where they would arm twist to get trade agreements in their favor. Now all that facade is being shed.
And so the other shoe falls:
Trump greenlights Russian sanctions bill, paving way for 500% tariff on countries supporting Moscow: Graham
Indian news reporting claiming this is anti-India should look at this larger picture.
On the down side, the era of cheap Russian oil for India may be coming to an end -- unless India wants to fight this which I do not believe will be in its interests. But on the up side, India's ONGC can now get access to the oil it owns in Iran & Venezuela which were previously sanctioned.
Trump Says U.S. to Start ‘Hitting Land’ in Military Campaign Against Cartels
Speaking to Fox News’ Sean Hannity on Thursday, the President threatened land strikes, naming Mexico as a potential target, without elaboration.
What is the guarantee that USA will allow us to purchase Oil from Iran and Venezuela? What if they simply put a blockade on all 3 and tell you to purchase from them? Nothing stops them from running a monopoly...India refineries are a competition to the US refineries which can process heavy crude why would USA would be eager to sell us Venezuelan crude when they can monopolize it. Let's not be super happy about these developments.
1. What will that get them? I don't know if anyone remembers but In sept-nov, when oil thing was at its high , India had told US that India won't budge on oil issue unless Iranian and Venezuelan oil enters the market. I don't believe that people in ministry would've thought that US would go hard power, given the trump rhetoric back then, but it essentially solved that point.
2. Just because they captured the venezulean oil fields, it won't ramp up the infra miraculously, needed to substantially substitute the needs. So, even with marginal increase, the overall supply remains similar. If US uses this crude to sell petroleum products to Europe, it will free West Asian supply. The loss to china from Venezuelan oil can be countered by increasing Russian oil, which could be freed if India increases oil purchase from west asia instead. These are all hypothetical, pointing out several ways and geopolitical connections which takes cares of supply-chain. Remember, China will be hit harder since it's the major beneficiary from Iran and Venezulean oil right now. So, the world's second biggest economy and rival of USA will play it's games. Hopefully, India does whatever is best for our long term interests.
3. The oil cartel is strong. If Trump does something that threatens the overall profits, they can either decrease or increase the oil extraction and supply. They have the infrastructure available for it. At the end of the day, India imports crude oil, it will only import crude oil. Not the processed version that it's own refineries does.
My working theory so far:
Since US has openly used hard power for maintaining its "sphere of influence" and less than expected response from China so far, if we assume that China-US ( G2) has come to some unofficial agreement behind the scenes for it.. China could give up a bit in Latin America in exchange for increasing influence over Russia. I say this, because right now India is doing what it can to be there with Russia through trade, but if oil order goes substantial down, and russia redirects it to China, it's dependency on Chinese yen increases.
This adversarial narrative and move from US has essentially laved way for China to get back into Indian sphere, pushing back US.
Let's see how things unfolds.. for now, China has strong connection in Latin America through Brazil, Arg etc.. and huge resources. While US got hold over pacific and Pak-afg.
Africa seems to be the frontier now, with China far far ahead of US and West.
This isn't India centric. But G-2
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Absolutely, the US is all about monopolizing and making money so it will sell refined oil to not only India but China as well. And you're quite right that Indian heavy refiniries could end up being collateral in this game between US/China so it will be up to the politicians to work out a deal with Trump.
Sometimes you end up taking a punch because the guy in front of you is getting a can of whoop-@$$. But if that dude taking the beating is your enemy, doesn't it still remain music to your ears? (Chinese $100B investment vs Indian <$1B)
Ultimately this was a bitch slap to the Chinese that you're biologically 5ft tall -- stop behaving as if you're 10ft. You're not going to build a base near me. You're not going to cheat with discounted oil that I have sanctioned. And you're going to resume trading REEs and REMs (which opens up another path for India should China continue to weaponize it against India as well - start thinking about shell companies in the US!).
While we would all like to live in Sat Yug, as the saying goes:
"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must"
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@redpanda @jmaxwell_
just saw this
www.patrika.com
just saw this
Trump administration allows India to buy Venezuelan oil amid 500 per cent tariff threat
US President Donald Trump has announced permission for India to purchase oil from Venezuela, signalling a resumption of India's oil imports from the country before sanctions were imposed on Venezuela.
Have you guys have noticed something ? Trump went in for the least risky , cheapest & easiest way to de fang a potential vassal if not wholesale vassal of a rising enemy !
By indulging in the classical daam from Chanakya Neeti's Saam , Daam , Dand , Bhed. He paid off Maduro's aides & had him kidnapped after some Hollywood style special effects which claimed the lives of some 100 Venezuelans.
The US in such cases in the past would launch an invasion like it did in Grenada & Panama which'd last a few weeks if not months to subdue a country of Venezuela's proportion in spite of its weakened state.
However Maduro's been replaced by his own team. We've no indication that they'd toe Washington's line. As of now they're not exactly chiming in with Trump's demands which is on expected lines for if they do they run the risk of being accused of being collaborators & traitors.
But the most interesting part is Trump using this incident to beat his chest gorilla style trying to intimidate everyone from Mexico to Greenland. He's merely trying to get the best deal possible thru sheer intimidation.
This isn't a murderous conqueror like Hitler or Timur but a road side bully flexing his muscles. It's what the Chinese call - killing a chicken to scare the monkeys.
Let's see if other countries especially those he's directly threatened fall for his ruse for Trump's bark is worse than his bite .
By indulging in the classical daam from Chanakya Neeti's Saam , Daam , Dand , Bhed. He paid off Maduro's aides & had him kidnapped after some Hollywood style special effects which claimed the lives of some 100 Venezuelans.
The US in such cases in the past would launch an invasion like it did in Grenada & Panama which'd last a few weeks if not months to subdue a country of Venezuela's proportion in spite of its weakened state.
However Maduro's been replaced by his own team. We've no indication that they'd toe Washington's line. As of now they're not exactly chiming in with Trump's demands which is on expected lines for if they do they run the risk of being accused of being collaborators & traitors.
But the most interesting part is Trump using this incident to beat his chest gorilla style trying to intimidate everyone from Mexico to Greenland. He's merely trying to get the best deal possible thru sheer intimidation.
This isn't a murderous conqueror like Hitler or Timur but a road side bully flexing his muscles. It's what the Chinese call - killing a chicken to scare the monkeys.
Let's see if other countries especially those he's directly threatened fall for his ruse for Trump's bark is worse than his bite .
Ottawa is a common wealth state of UK and head of state is the British Monarch. And right now Britain is a strong ally of US.
You're spot on. Like a TV mob boss - why deal with a large messy affair when a simple demonstration is sufficient? Trump has put everyone on notice:
1. Venezuela. He has kept the govt intact other than the extraordinary rendition of the head of state. This is not about drugs or bringing freedom to the Venezuelan people. This is about China and oil.
2. Guyana. Recently found oil. Was under threat from Venezuela/Chicom. Drill baby drill - with contracts going to US companies.
3. Cuba. Cut off from Venezuelan petrodollars which was keeping it afloat. Will destabilize in due time and cowtow to US.
4. Colombia. Gustavo changed his tune real fast once Trump threatened him.
5. Mexico/Canada. Message to start toeing the line.
6. Argentina. Millei already in pocket.
7. Greenland. You want a two front war, EU?
8. ME. The amount of direct control of oil (Canada, Venezuela, Guyana, US, Nigeria ...), OPEC doesn't have the power they think they do. New fault lines created between UAE and Saudis.
But if they think Trump is bluffing, just a reminder that he bombed 7 countries in 2025.
Actually I think Trump is bluffing but I doubt many of the nations he's confronted have the nerve to call his bluff.
Be that as it may , the US led world order is in tatters as are many of the alliances including NATO.
There're reports France wants out of NATO. If not now you can be sure the alliance will come undone in a short while.
Whoever is going to succeed Trump will have an uphill task trying to patch up the damages he's left behind & even then deep suspicions will persist.
David Frum of Bush fame helps explain why Trump is not only trying to tear up NATO but also bringing my country to civil war as he uses ICE to liquefy soccer moms.
Tbh his goals are right even if he's going about it the wrong way apart from being the wrong person to do the job. US's debt levels are unsustainable. It's just a major crisis away from unravelling the economy.
US also has been deeply involved in financializing the economy wherein on the pretext of unlocking shareholder value & all that blah they've de industrialised ( somehow this disease of financialization of the economy is a purely Anglo disease . UK is suffering from more or less the same disease which has led to its de industrialisation) & what's more have helped create a Frankenstein in China by off shoring their industries there , perhaps the first & only time in the recorded history of the world that a country has helped create its own rival.
And this is the US we're talking about where strategic affairs is an industry in its own right with everyone involved being highly opinionated . Do you think an incident of this magnitude happened all of a sudden without anyone noticing ?
Trump or rather his advisory team's ideology stems from the same isolationist streak that dominated the US in the inter war years especially post the Great Depression where they refused to be involved in the affairs of Europe. Eventually things took a different turn & we know what followed.
Trump seems to want to re industrialise the US & cut off its external obligations except neither can be accomplished in one term . It's a 20 year project at the very least & enjoys little support from the elite be they in the bureaucracy the industry the academia or the deep state.
I suspect that's the reason Trump's in a hurry going about things in his usual ham handed manner. Frankly I'd be very surprised if he completes his term. I mean JFK & Nixon paid a price for far less follies & this guy has been dismantling the entire apparatus the US diplomatic corps & deep state have spent a few generations building.
As far as Frum's take on the situation goes , he's being economical with the truth . There was no need for NATO once the USSR was dissolved. If the US was truly serious about European security it'd have involved Russia in whatever security architecture it drew up post the dissolution of the USSR.
However the US wanted to continue exercising hegemony over Europe for which you need an existential threat . Hence Russia was kept out of all such security arrangements with NATO expanding eastwards knowing fully well that historically Russia has been the object of 3 invasions from the West off which the latter two were existential wars particularly against Germany in WW-2 .
That's precisely the reason Stalin created a buffer in Eastern Europe thru the Warsaw Pact to prevent a recurrence of such a land invasion. That's what the Russians have been paranoid about since the end of Russian red lines were repeatedly ignored to provoke a reaction. We know how the rest of the situation panned out.