MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions
- Thread starter Picdelamirand-oil
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If IAF spends ₹2 lakh crore on Rafales, forget large possible orders for Tejas Mk2. I don't think there would be enough budget left for 300-400 Mk2.
IAN'S job is not to give business to HAL or promotion to who ever involved in Tejas program. It's the job of GOI.
Engine tech comes with it, cost of autonomy.
We cannot be in a position where half our fleet could be grounded.
The race is against time. Mk2 will come after 12 years, Indian airforce needs to prepare within 2 years for bigger challenges with sufficient numbers of active aircrafts with in ready to fight mode, there is an imminent threat. Increase the petrol prices for 5 months by Rs. 4 will get you more than 2 lakhs crores for MK2.
That's 23 billion spread over 15 years. That's the weakest attack on Rafale as a MRFA contender.
I would attack the deal on 2 merits
1. Non Stealth design procurement/signing in 2028 (earliest we can sign it)
2. Lack of control over the aircraft. Control levels anything less than that of Jaguar/Su30MKI is useless.
If you guys recollect, in 2016 when this deal was signed, I had clearly mentioned a figure of 225 Rafale for IAF & IN combined.
Best case scenario that the deal is inked in 2028, add 12-18 months to get DRAL facility ready for Rafale assembly. Another 36 months for the build period of 1st airframe.
2032 is the year we get 1st Rafale.
Thats the best case scenario.
It will easily take from then till 2040 to roll out the 114 units.
Luckily, France's plans for FCAS are in complete disarray, and Rafale is their only combat ac. They will continue to invest in the ac until SCAF comes online.
India could pitch for co-developing future Rafale variants + SCAF as part of a comprehensive partnership. In any case, we're just about getting started with conceptualizing our own 6G jet.
India could pitch for co-developing future Rafale variants + SCAF as part of a comprehensive partnership. In any case, we're just about getting started with conceptualizing our own 6G jet.
Or we can get initial units from France directly, From 2030
Like 30-40 from France, 70-80 built in India.
Initial production rate of 18-20 fighters, later increased to ~30 per year.
And we can have have all delivered by mid 2030s(2035-2036).
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Mk-2 isn't gonna get orders before 2032 in the most optimistic timeline, AMCA not getting inducted before 2040. IAF is realistic about the incompetence of ADA and HAL.
There has already been multiple discussions on the complex nature of factors cusing delay.
Its not a responsibility of a single player.
Better refined timeline will be.
We get 36 directly from France from 2030.
12 per year, all delivered by end of 2033.
Indian factory starts producing rafale from 2032.
8 in first year from 2032-2033.
16 in 2033-2034.
24 in 2034-2035.
30 in 2035-2036.
Total 114 delivered by end of 2036.
Indian Navy will start getting deliveries of already signed Rafale M in 2028-29.
What makes you think that we will sign a deal in 2028 and get 30 Rafales in 2030?
That's where you are wrong. You need to spread the production long enough that operation of a production line becomes viable.
This might not be an issue if the assembly is being done by a govt agency. (Like the case of assembly of just 12 more Su30MKI by HAL).
But this is not how a private line will work.
There are only 2 way forward in this.
1. Either you pay 1.5x the cost , and then get the aircrafts from a new line within 5 years.
2. Spread out the assembly to 8-11 years for that line to be viable.
What makes me think, is it i beleive we'll sign the deal this year.
IAF has sent a proposal. That's...., do you understand how the procurement works?
DRDO and associated industry has been ready to sign the deal for 6 Mk1A Netra. But we still don't have enough clearances.
MDL and Naval Group have completed the negotiations for 3 more subs and we haven't yet signed them.
These requirements are as important as that of MRFA.
What makes you think that PMO-MoD-IAF will break its usual routine this time?
Well lets just say, modi will visit France in near future.
Both additional scorpene subs and 114 rafale will be signed.
All the negotiations for rafale already completed in background over years.
This proposal is not the same as, start of procurement.
Its only to show official paperwork