India - United States Relations

jetray said:
This is what happens when you dont impose counter tariffs like china. They think we are silent bcos we will be the one who will fold up and talk to them first. So obviously they keep ratcheting up the rhetoric thinking it will put more pressure.

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I don't think that "counter tariffs" is practical or even sensible for India.

We can squeeze medical supplies but that will create massive massive negativity for us that it is not worth doing... we need an export like .... rare earths or fertilizers.

May be... just may be... we can reduce refined petroleum products export and store them locally.... trouble is, this is blunt tool and not targeting specific to USA.
 
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Sooner or later the tariffs will not be affecting, because it will be only on handful of products the way it is going.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

US reciprocal tariffs: Donald Trump signs order granting exemptions to some goods

Indias exports of the newly-exempt 50-odd items amount to about $20 million annually. The products include highly specialised: nitrile compounds used in pharmaceuticals and agrochemicals; nickel waste and scrap recycled into stainless steel and batteries; lidocaine, a local anaesthetic; nick el...
economictimes.indiatimes.com economictimes.indiatimes.com
 
screambowl said:
Sooner or later the tariffs will not be affecting, because it will be only on handful of products the way it is going.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

US reciprocal tariffs: Donald Trump signs order granting exemptions to some goods

Indias exports of the newly-exempt 50-odd items amount to about $20 million annually. The products include highly specialised: nitrile compounds used in pharmaceuticals and agrochemicals; nickel waste and scrap recycled into stainless steel and batteries; lidocaine, a local anaesthetic; nick el...
economictimes.indiatimes.com economictimes.indiatimes.com
Click to expand...
And that my brothers, is TACO.
 
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Saaho said:
I don't think that "counter tariffs" is practical or even sensible for India.

We can squeeze medical supplies but that will create massive massive negativity for us that it is not worth doing... we need an export like .... rare earths or fertilizers.

May be... just may be... we can reduce refined petroleum products export and store them locally.... trouble is, this is blunt tool and not targeting specific to USA.
Click to expand...
It makes a lot of sense, I am talking about imports into India. We import dry fruits & nuts from US. In fact we can get it for more cheaper from afghanistan or iran but buy from US. Find more such non critical sectors especially oil , slap a higher tariff.
 
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jetray said:
It makes a lot of sense, I am talking about imports into India. We import dry fruits & nuts from US. In fact we can get it for more cheaper from afghanistan or iran but buy from US. Find more such non critical sectors especially oil , slap a higher tariff.
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Any trade barrier almost always ends up hitting our own people. we have protective barriers to protect critical fields like agriculture.

I think there is one place we can hit. Its Aircrafts. Boeing has a massive order from Tatas, they can delay those planes and look for second hand airbuses in interim. That will be an immediate and visible retaliation.
Other place is aircraft engine tech. i think we are already moving to french for partnership in making engine.
So yeah...
 
Saaho said:
Any trade barrier almost always ends up hitting our own people. we have protective barriers to protect critical fields like agriculture.

I think there is one place we can hit. Its Aircrafts. Boeing has a massive order from Tatas, they can delay those planes and look for second hand airbuses in interim. That will be an immediate and visible retaliation.
Other place is aircraft engine tech. i think we are already moving to french for partnership in making engine.
So yeah...
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We don't have much trade leverage with the US & neither do they with us. If Trump tinkers around with IT support systems he risks jeopardizing all those Silicon Valley set ups which aided his campaign . We won't be touching this sector any time soon too .

Pharma is self explanatory which leaves defence. If Trump touches that aspect of our relationship we'd be in deep trouble no doubt given our upcoming appointment with China but then Trump would've irrevocably damaged Indo US ties.

Up until now it's still a trade dispute & a limited one at that . The idea from our perspective is to keep it at that at worst , at best to resolve it without long lasting damage to our interests .

What we need is patience , a virtue at the best of times , more so now in the age of 24x 7 news media & SM with a story breaking out every 15 minutes .

The action on the validity of Trump's tariffs has moved to the SCOTUS . Even otherwise the toll it's taking on US agriculture , big & especially small business has already started making waves in the media. It's only poised to get worse .

See Trump's & his courtiers daily rants in this light. It's to bully hold outs like India. Finally you've to remember one of the reasons the US commands enormous respect around the world is coz of the security guarantees it provides its allies.

The EU said as much when agreeing to the unilateral business deal in Trump's favour as justification in the hope that the US won't throw Zelensky under the bus & continue backing Ukraine especially Europe's support to him.

Ditto for Japan & RoK . Now comes news the new defence policy is going to be a 180° turn from traditional US position. They're going to focus more on homeland security than pursue international obligations & / or interests.

That screws up Quad , Japan , Taiwan , RoK etc much more than it does Europe against the Russians for while the latter doesn't have designs as on date on Europe even though Europe is crying wolf , China has territorial claims on the all aforementioned parties which in turn means all those unilateral one sided deals they've struck with Trump is Trump suckering them while throwing them under the bus.

This latest defence policy is going to cause a storm across party lines in the US . It all but encourages Chinese aggression giving them a Carte Blanche to do as they please.

If there's a deep state in the US this is crossing several red lines at once for it diminishes the pre eminent position of the US , something the former has spent decades since the end of WW-2 building up only for a maverick to come dismantle it in the very first year of his presidency .

This will have severe repercussions on the US if Trump doesn't course correct which I don't see him doing . This in turn will prompt those elements to undermine Trump & you've no clue how far they're prepared to go . Check out how Kennedy & Nixon were taken care of for perspective.
 
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_Anonymous_ said:
We don't have much trade leverage with the US & neither do they with us. If Trump tinkers around with IT support systems he risks jeopardizing all those Silicon Valley set ups which aided his campaign . We won't be touching this sector any time soon too .

Pharma is self explanatory which leaves defence. If Trump touches that aspect of our relationship we'd be in deep trouble no doubt given our upcoming appointment with China but then Trump would've irrevocably damaged Indo US ties.

Up until now it's still a trade dispute & a limited one at that . The idea from our perspective is to keep it at that at worst , at best to resolve it without long lasting damage to our interests .

What we need is patience , a virtue at the best of times , more so now in the age of 24x 7 news media & SM with a story breaking out every 15 minutes .

The action on the validity of Trump's tariffs has moved to the SCOTUS . Even otherwise the toll it's taking on US agriculture , big & especially small business has already started making waves in the media. It's only poised to get worse .

See Trump's & his courtiers daily rants in this light. It's to bully hold outs like India. Finally you've to remember one of the reasons the US commands enormous respect around the world is coz of the security guarantees it provides its allies.

The EU said as much when agreeing to the unilateral business deal in Trump's favour as justification in the hope that the US won't throw Zelensky under the bus & continue backing Ukraine especially Europe's support to him.

Ditto for Japan & RoK . Now comes news the new defence policy is going to be a 180° turn from traditional US position. They're going to focus more on homeland security than pursue international obligations & / or interests.

That screws up Quad , Japan , Taiwan , RoK etc much more than it does Europe against the Russians for while the latter doesn't have designs as on date on Europe even though Europe is crying wolf , China has territorial claims on the all aforementioned parties which in turn means all those unilateral one sided deals they've struck with Trump is Trump suckering them while throwing them under the bus.

This latest defence policy is going to cause a storm across party lines in the US . It all but encourages Chinese aggression giving them a Carte Blanche to do as they please.

If there's a deep state in the US this is crossing several red lines at once for it diminishes the pre eminent position of the US , something the former has spent decades since the end of WW-2 building up only for a maverick to come dismantle it in the very first year of his presidency .

This will have severe repercussions on the US if Trump doesn't course correct which I don't see him doing . This in turn will prompt those elements to undermine Trump & you've no clue how far they're prepared to go . Check out how Kennedy & Nixon were taken care of for perspective.
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Interesting. Is that defense policy change due to chinese inducting hypersonics and ICBMs decoy mirvs etc technology? Cause China's the only one which can threaten the homeland so far.

I read about Mar-lago accords theory.. they wanna devalue dollar slowly and use trade tarrifs barrier as negotiations in other countries following indian strategic interests. It include scott bessent as the propogator

Everyone here should read about it atleast once. Will give you an idea on the real extended intention behind tarrifs.
Then there's a paper from heritage foundation that guides people like Navarro.
 


'We continue to have good relations with US': Piyush Goyal hopeful of resolving tariff row​



Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has downplayed concerns over the steep 50% tariff imposed by the United States on Indian goods, urging calm and stressing that negotiations are ongoing to reach a “balanced and fair agreement.”


“There is no need to panic,” Goyal said in an interview with ANI on Thursday. “We continue to have good relations with the United States, and I am sure we will be able to resolve some of these issues and come to an equitable, balanced and fair agreement.”

The reassurance comes as Indian exporters face mounting pressure following President Donald Trump’s decision to double tariffs on Indian goods—from an initial 25% to 50%—citing New Delhi’s continued imports of Russian crude. The secondary tariff came into force on August 27 and applies to all Indian goods entering the U.S. market or withdrawn from bonded warehouses for domestic sale.


Goyal declined to set a timeline for the resolution. “There is never a timeline in negotiations,” he said. “You should do it patiently, as you are doing it for the long term.”


The tariff escalation coincided with major tax reforms at home. The 56th GST Council meeting on September 3 decided to rationalize India’s GST structure by merging the 12% and 28% slabs into a simplified two-tier system—5% and 18%. Compensation cess on coal, carbonated beverages, and mid- to large-sized cars was also scrapped.

Goyal emphasized that the timing of the reforms and the U.S. tariff hike was purely coincidental. “Such reforms cannot happen overnight… It's a matter of chance that the two have coincided,” he said.


The GST restructuring is expected to ease compliance while providing relief across key sectors. However, exporters now face a volatile global trade environment, with Washington’s punitive tariff move adding new uncertainty to India-U.S. economic ties.
 
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I apologise if this offends anyone - We really tend to loose our composure whenever threatened a wee bit. This particular IT bill proposed by a Senator was just a proposal. However, here we are - every Indian media house started commenting on it. They fan fires like no one else can.

The politicians are so out of touch that they cannot handle things behind the scene. A simple comment would have sufficed. 'We will do what is necessary to....'

https://twitter.com/x/status/1964609796700807320
 
Subgradewalker said:
Interesting. Is that defense policy change due to chinese inducting hypersonics and ICBMs decoy mirvs etc technology? Cause China's the only one which can threaten the homeland so far.
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Trump is not interested in militarily confronting China. He's more in the isolationist tradition of the US thought process which went extinct or at any rate subterranean once WW-2 broke out.

I don't see it as a long term project as no other major political figure has ever articulated such a policy & that's true of both the political parties in the US , including Trump in the run up to last year's presidential elections or even in his previous term which is probably the reason he didn't voice his policy on the issue then for he'd have stirred up an unnecessary controversy & alerted sections of the US establishment to it who then would've tried to derail his campaign much like the Russian interference allegations which dogged his previous campaign & lasted the entire stretch of his previous term .

In retrospect his actions to eviscerate & emasculate the State Department & the National Security Council apart from other such organs of the US state besides packing them with his lackeys make sense.

On the face of it his policies make eminent sense as a confrontation with China would be severely damaging to the US for even if it wins the war , it may well never recover it's former position of the sole Super Power of the world or from the long term effects of the war in realms other than defence.

However , my contention is the US has invested far too much to walk away from a confrontation with China. I'd go so far as to venture he's just opened up a Pandora's Box . The very same Cold War warriors who engineered the Ukraine war & have sustained it this far would be the ones to mount a push back. Trump can underestimate them at his own peril.
Subgradewalker said:
I read about Mar-lago accords theory.. they wanna devalue dollar slowly and use trade tarrifs barrier as negotiations in other countries following indian strategic interests. It include scott bessent as the propogator

Everyone here should read about it atleast once. Will give you an idea on the real extended intention behind tarrifs.
Then there's a paper from heritage foundation that guides people like Navarro.
Click to expand...
Haven't come across it but could be so , though how exactly can the US regain its pre eminence in mfg prowess with China around is a question worth a few trillion dollars .

In trying to recast the entire system in his mould , he'd only succeed in undoing the existing system without accomplishing much or anything at all in pursuit of his goals.

Suits us very fine for we want both China & the US to cancel each other out in the upcoming war over Taiwan with Europe & Russia achieving the same outcome over Ukraine.

This inconvenience we're facing then is temporary. That should be our perspective on the entire issue of tariffs.
 
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Subgradewalker said:
I read about Mar-lago accords theory.. they wanna devalue dollar slowly and use trade tarrifs barrier as negotiations in other countries following indian strategic interests. It include scott bessent as the propogator
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What do they get out of devaluing dollar? And if they want to do it, there are tools that will promote extremely fast development in USA at the cost of currency value loss and inflation.

The entire "Make USA a manufacturing hub again" is a dead end idea. US does not have young population for that anymore.
 
Saaho said:
Cognitive dissonance... MAGA has gone GAGA.
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How will they get cheap workforce? When they outsource then it's simple calculation that for 2500 dollars they get 3 people writing scripts or doing fitting work at some work shop ( no insurance included, no unemployment benefit, no day night shift allowance of extra 500 dollars net. ) In US they have to pay 4000 USD to one person for the same work ( including unemployment benefits and tax).

If Hyundai had legally employed the workers, the plant would have gone bankrupt by now. Of course there is no justification for breaking a law. This can end up very bad.
 
Don't forget about the automation. With AI+robots, replacing human workforce in repetitive tasks is no longer a tough task. Human like robots are in advanced stages of development and training and can probably replace plethora of low paying jobs across the sectors.
All the big investments we see in headlines in USA aren't gonna go towards substantial job creation but automated factories. The point of vulnerability though for US is the lack of numbers of high skilled IT workforce ( non-immigrant and white). But their strength has always been the non-IT engineering.

And that's the main strategy US have been working on sinces ages now. Even china is doing so. Both have been getting ready for their aging population besides the military ofc.
 
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