India - United States Relations

[_Anonymous_]

Trump is course correcting by keeping Ukraine of NATO.

That was true even in Biden's tenure. Look at the number of statements issued by NATO the US & Ukraine in the run up to the war & even later .

He gets his cut: EU will bankroll $100b of US mil hardware for Ukraine as part of security guarantee.

You'd have to elaborate .

And how has that worked out for them? Trump is reversing most Biden-era decisions. He's gunning for a Nobel. The Ukrainians have lost most of their military-age men in combat and are now forced to mobilize older people.

Frankly even if this was a war of attrition by now Ukraine should've folded up . They're still executing daring strikes behind Russian lines & the Russians are still stuck in Eastern Ukraine more or less with the same amount of territory they took before the war broke out or immediately after .

It's one of the most inept campaigns conducted by the Russian leadership in recent times. Only the Russo Japanese war very early last century ranks just above this in terms of ineptitude.

Trump is adamant that Ukraine pay for US security assistance. The EU is more circumspect about their chances of winning on the battlefield via their proxy.

But the US & the European component of NATO have followed the lend lease model . All those weapons they're providing apart from cash aid is all to Ukraine's account which they'd have to repay .

The west plans to finance part of this debt thru seizure of Russian assets .

 

[Defc0n]

I think you're being unnecessarily harsh. The relationship was disrupted by a black swan event which was the incident in Pahalgam & its aftermath. Otherwise we'd still continue to have cordial relations with the Trump administration.

It may not have been warm given he's been turning on friend & for equally but we'd at least have a workable relationship going.

There are limits to which we can accommodate Trump's megalomania . Fauji Foundation faces no such limitations as they have literally nothing to offer except themselves & their land ,both of which USA requires sparingly as of now .

See Trump's humouring of Fauji Foundation especially their Field Marshal as an attempt to stoke insecurity in India & / or provoke jealousy.

Let Trump continue with his tariffs plan. As it is there are reports coming out from the US of the devastating impact it's had on the local economy affecting all sections including his own support base .

Soon those reports will turn into a veritable flood . If Trump doesn't take heed & course corrects he's in for a massive revolt from his own support base & the rank & file of the GOP.

Give it a few months maybe till the end of the year . That's the best case scenario . The worst case scenario would be a year from now . Either way his policies are doomed .

Besides it's not unlike Trump to pretend none of this happened if he's to kiss & make up . He may even blame his lackeys for misguiding him & throw someone under the bus .

It's a goddamned circus at the best of times in DC except now instead of a ring master we've a clown running the show.

Well, see this from our PoV - we cannot allow our foreign policy and internal matters to be held at ransom by some looney. New Delhi would have realised this now and hard! I don't see Trump's "kiss & make up" being an easy endeavour by any means. Like I said in my previous post, be it DJT or some future Prez, they might have to cede to more than what would like, in order to get things back on "pre-tarrif terms" with India.

 

[Subgradewalker]

The optimistic view from twitter. All good points. However, the amount of work needed will be mind-warping. UPSC....UPSC....how you make us cry.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1960722050823413968

But what I don't get is, does the nations like Bangladesh, Pakistan, kenya.. which are being hyped up to replace Indian exports.. can they even match the Indian production and sustain it?

For all the big talks.. bang and paks internal issues and policy have made it even more difficult for them to scale up to the proportions required to capture anything of value.
Bangladesh is already dependent on Indian ports and lands to optimise it's logistics costs.. and going by recent trends.. they won't be able to utilise tarrif differential due to high cost, degradation of internal dynamic and policy environment needed to sustain such operations.

Only nations I can see capable is either vietnam, which itself is reliant on china-india for inputs. And China.
But doing any of it is self defeating for Trump as it will increase the goods deficit with China, the kind of optics Trump supporters takes into consideration. And why can't Indian companies just export to countries with less tarrifs and white label there ( indian companies in foreign) and export. Even with extra tarrifs on rerouting will be cheaper than direct from India. And tbh..most of it is paper manipulation. Any corrupt African nation can do it.

And that's not taking into account the inflation it will bring to USA. So while there's a lot of hoo hallah over the tarrif differential.. it's will not be as severe as people predict and that's when the prediction shows mild consequences only. And then you have a govt which is taking this time to actually being reforms and trade strategies( intent only so far) to widen it's exports basket and manufacturing capability and capacity. If they take this time to reduce beauracracy.. that will be even more wonderfull.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Well, see this from our PoV - we cannot leave our foreign policy and internal matters to be held at ransom by some looney. New Delhi would have realised this now and hard!

None of our governments past or present have compromised on our core interests. There may be something here or there but by far & large we've stuck to our guns even when we were much more weaker .

I don't see Trump's "kiss & make up" being an easy endeavour by any means.

You're underestimating shamelessness. Trump's policy - jisne ki sharm uske phoote karm , jisne ki behayaee usne khayi doodh malai. Fauji Foundation follows the same thought process .

Don't believe me ? Ask maamu . @safriz. Every serving or retired Fauji knows this to be a truism exercising this in their daily lives.

No wonder Trump & FM Asim Manure get along .

Alhamdulillah !

Like I said in my previous post, be it DJT or some future Prez, they might have to cede to more than what would like to in order to get things back on "pre-tarrif terms" with India.

They won't have to cede anything nor would we , any more than is necessary ,in any case . It'd just be back to normal .

 

[Subgradewalker]

Well, see this from our PoV - we cannot leave our foreign policy and internal matters to be held at ransom by some looney. New Delhi would have realised this now and hard! I don't see Trump's "kiss & make up" being an easy endeavour by any means. Like I said in my previous post, be it DJT or some future Prez, they might have to cede to more than what would like to in order to get things back on "pre-tarrif terms" with India.

They will try to pressure thru helping opposition first..like they do everytime, everywhere. If that fails..only then they will be serious about it. But yeah, there's no way now that patriotic Indian beauracracy and policy makers can let ties go back to usual w/o US meeting some public or private commitments/concession

 

[Shan]

But what I don't get is, does the nations like Bangladesh, Pakistan, kenya.. which are being hyped up to replace Indian exports.. can they even match the Indian production and sustain it?

For all the big talks.. bang and paks internal issues and policy have made it even more difficult for them to scale up to the proportions required to capture anything of value.
Bangladesh is already dependent on Indian ports and lands to optimise it's logistics costs.. and going by recent trends.. they won't be able to utilise tarrif differential due to high cost, degradation of internal dynamic and policy environment needed to sustain such operations.

Only nations I can see capable is either vietnam, which itself is reliant on china-india for inputs. And China.
But doing any of it is self defeating for Trump as it will increase the goods deficit with China, the kind of optics Trump supporters takes into consideration. And why can't Indian companies just export to countries with less tarrifs and white label there ( indian companies in foreign) and export. Even with extra tarrifs on rerouting will be cheaper than direct from India. And tbh..most of it is paper manipulation. Any corrupt African nation can do it.

And that's not taking into account the inflation it will bring to USA. So while there's a lot of hoo hallah over the tarrif differential.. it's will not be as severe as people predict and that's when the prediction shows mild consequences only. And then you have a govt which is taking this time to actually being reforms and trade strategies( intent only so far) to widen it's exports basket and manufacturing capability and capacity. If they take this time to reduce beauracracy.. that will be even more wonderfull.

The post actually speaks about exploring new markets to reduce market dependency. It is one the things that will help off-set any kind of trade disruption that the country might experience when it comes to goods export.

While you make valid points, I can make counterpoints - try and trace the country of origin. This has been done in the past when NATO was imposing sanctions.

True way forward will be to actually put in diplomatic efforts and open up new markets for goods. This in turn will require massive effort from our government apparatus.
This is simplification at best. However, a longer explanation along with steps involved would be massive.

 

[Jaymax]

I think you're being unnecessarily harsh. The relationship was disrupted by a black swan event which was the incident in Pahalgam & its aftermath. Otherwise we'd still continue to have cordial relations with the Trump administration.

Its bigger than Pahalgam.

Trump hasnt forgiven Modi for the campaign snub (to be fair India was trying to look balanced towards both candidates). Washington sees Modi as an enabler of Russia. US can buy Russian energy with conditions, India buys it for good prices. India buys French, Russian and Swedish equipment and not American. All of these factors irritate the US.

Our career babu turned mantri was brought in for his expertise in diplomacy. He failed to deliver. Trump did not emerge from the havankund without warning, he was a part of the establishment before. India should have had the read on him and his antics. There are no second chances at this level.

PS - My read is Trump has made up his mind on Modi. Unless there is a reset (unlikely right now), you will see leaderji under increasing stress from now on.

 

[Shan]

Its bigger than Pahalgam.

Trump hasnt forgiven Modi for the campaign snub (to be fair India was trying to look balanced towards both candidates). Washington sees Modi as an enabler of Russia. US can buy Russian energy with conditions, India buys it for good prices. India buys French, Russian and Swedish equipment and not American. All of these factors irritate the US.

Our career babu turned mantri was brought in for his expertise in diplomacy. He failed to deliver. Trump did not emerge from the havankund without warning, he was a part of the establishment before. India should have the read on him and his antics. There are no second chances at this level.

You forgot two things:

Nomination for peace prize and credit for ceasefire. This has been on the news cycle so many times. It was kind of expected from India. India has let them down on both aspects.

 

[Subgradewalker]

The post actually speaks about exploring new markets to reduce market dependency. It is one the things that will help off-set any kind of trade disruption that the country might experience when it comes to goods export.

While you make valid points, I can make counterpoints - try and trace the country of origin. This has been done in the past when NATO was imposing sanctions.

True way forward will be to actually put in diplomatic efforts and open up new markets for goods. This in turn will require massive effort from our government apparatus.
This is simplification at best. However, a longer explanation along with steps involved would be massive.

I am not denying the need of diversification. That's The number one priority.

And I didn't say to hide the country of origin. I am saying white-labelling them and manipulation of papers as a small subset. I mean it's not like there's deep enmity or sanction per se b/w us. Even Pakistanis managed to trade with indians by rerouting.

But my main point remains on the issue if other markets can actually meet indian production and replace it in any substantial number. Even Pakistan will need to further exploit it's population to meet demand by slaving em away to keep cost low.
It's not just about the finished product right.. but from every inputs too.

Where will they get the raw materials.. China. So, USA will help China? By linking it's dollars to Pakistan on necessity of Chinese nod . And boost Chinese economy. Fkn stupid . If this really happens, I can imagine jaishankar having a field day in USA pointing this out to the Americans.

As for domestic manufacturing.. they will rely on automation to reduce prices.. but still result in inflation, low jobs etc. more concentration of wealth.

You forgot two things:

Nomination for peace prize and credit for ceasefire. This has been on the news cycle so many times. It was kind of expected from India. India has let them down on both aspects.

And that's why I term it as US' diplomatic failures. Not India. If you don't even know the red lines of your partner nation.. what kind of idiotic diplomacy are you running. Not everyone is like taiwan, dependent on US for its sovereignty.

 

[Jaymax]

You forgot two things:

Nomination for peace prize and credit for ceasefire. This has been on the news cycle so many times. It was kind of expected from India. India has let them down on both aspects.

Washington babudom has written Trump off. He is their useful idiot.

 

[Shan]

But my main point remains on the issue if other markets can actually meet indian production and replace it in any substantial number. Even Pakistan will need to further exploit it's population to meet demand by slaving em away to keep cost low.
It's not just about the finished product right.. but from every inputs too.

Where will they get the raw materials.. China. So, USA will help China? By linking it's dollars to Pakistan on necessity of Chinese nod . And boost Chinese economy. Fkn stupid . If this really happens, I can imagine jaishankar having a field day in USA pointing this out to the Americans.

This will be a very dry and realistic take:

Everybody is reliant on China for materials and assembly. The US has already buckled to certain Chinese demands. They have stated that they are willing to aid the Chinese in certain sectors provided they do not embargo magnets and rare minerals. Jaishankar can indeed have a field day with this aspect. However, it will be limited to media clips and news cycles. The CPC maintains a monopoly over processing and production of certain subset of goods that cannot be replaced in 2-3 years. This is leverage that cannot be wished away.

Pakistan is out of the picture as you've stated as is BD.

There are certain aspects to the China-US relationship that U.S cannot just overcome by shifting to S.E Asia or India as things stand today.

China continues to hold certain 'cards' that New Delhi does not hold.

And I didn't say to hide the country of origin. I am saying white-labelling them and manipulation of papers as a small subset. I mean it's not like there's deep enmity or sanction per se b/w us. Even Pakistanis managed to trade with indians by rerouting.

Agreed. Re-routing is something widely used.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Its bigger than Pahalgam.

Trump hasnt forgiven Modi for the campaign snub (to be fair India was trying to look balanced towards both candidates). Washington sees Modi as an enabler of Russia. US can buy Russian energy with conditions, India buys it for good prices. India buys French, Russian and Swedish equipment and not American. All of these factors irritate the US.

Our career babu turned mantri was brought in for his expertise in diplomacy. He failed to deliver. Trump did not emerge from the havankund without warning, he was a part of the establishment before. India should have had the read on him and his antics. There are no second chances at this level.

PS - My read is Trump has made up his mind on Modi. Unless there is a reset (unlikely right now), you will see leaderji under increasing stress from now on.

Compare the cabinet of Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0. you will find the reason behind almost every nation failing to get a reas on WH. Heck, even the Americans themselves can't get a read on WH these days. He deploys national guard on his whims.

It's not diplomacy anymore. You're simplifying it way too much. I don't think even canadians would've gotten a read that he will ask them to be their 51st state on social media .

 

[Shan]

Washington babudom has written Trump off. He is their useful idiot.

I jest, my good sir. How can a serf reject arrangements made? This is the aspect that sticks out.

 

[Subgradewalker]

This will be a very dry and realistic take:

Everybody is reliant on China for materials and assembly. The US has already buckled to certain Chinese demands. They have stated that they are willing to aid the Chinese in certain sectors provided they do not embargo magnets and rare minerals. Jaishankar can indeed have a field day with this aspect. However, it will be limited to media clips and news cycles. The CPC maintains a monopoly over processing and production of certain subset of goods that cannot be replaced in 2-3 years. This is leverage that cannot be wished away.

Pakistan is out of the picture as you've stated as is BD.

There are certain aspects to the China-US relationship that U.S cannot just overcome by shifting to S.E Asia or India as things stand today.

China continues to hold certain 'cards' that New Delhi does not hold.


Agreed. Re-routing is something widely used.

Agreed. But there's a difference in maintaining the status quo and giving more leverage to Chinese. Cause the inflation will pick up. And I don't what policy Trump has in mind to reduce it and what kind of govt spending directives/priorities he has in mind to even do that.

 

[Shan]

Agreed. But there's a difference in maintaining the status quo and giving more leverage to Chinese. Cause the inflation will pick up. And I don't what policy Trump has in mind to reduce it and what kind of govt spending directives/priorities he has in mind to even do that.

He will try. However, he has nothing to show so far. Also, the inflation has already up by a slight margin. Middle Class is already up in arms.

 

[Paro]

Just watch it till the end

 

[Shan]

Talks continue after the implementation of the tariff. The government is trying to mitigate the effects. There has been no retaliation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1960709171999072704

 

[Saaho]

Our career babu turned mantri was brought in for his expertise in diplomacy. He failed to deliver. Trump did not emerge from the havankund without warning, he was a part of the establishment before. India should have had the read on him and his antics. There are no second chances at this level.

Once more this is not Jayshankar's issue. The issue is Trump 2.0, Project 2025 and heritage foundation. Remember, Trump is not being an arsehole to India alone, it has issues with entire world including America's closest allies. I would have agreed to your assessment of Jayshankar if it was only limited to India. But India is only one of the countries. Brazil has been hit with similar tariff. Not to mention Canada. And for Canada it is way more insulting.

Trump 2.0 is acting like a school yard bully, nothing more.

 

[CATS @hunter]

Yeah they are trying to improve their relationship with China. So they are throwing India under the bus. It was bound to happen one day. Atleast it happened sooner than later. We should be glad we got the wake up call early. I hope our adminstration keep our relationship with US in a more transactional domain from now.

Their relationship won't improve, USA will never want to be in the 2nd place, the next govt will reverse the Trump actions, republicans ain't gonna win next time, and the sole reasons goes to Trump, some of the States in the USA were swinging States in the last election, but now The voters alredy made up their minds, the relation with Russia & China is shallow, Trump May like the relationship with Russia and China but not the CIA and USA forces or thier bureaucracy, relationship with Russia are not gonna get approve by EU, EU maybe a vassal right now but still they don't gonna like the US cozying up with Russia, Trump single handedly start the Ragnarok of USA hegemony, the next govt have gonna do the hardwork, the bridges are already burnt right now, from EU to middle east, Oceania to Asia Pacific, South America, africa and india, all of this because the organge moron is egoistic bully, extremely stupid, narrastic & rascist

 

[screambowl]

I had told earlier MEA is no more calling the shots, now the fate is in the hands of bureaucracy.