India - United States Relations

[YoungWolf]

Imo, we should cultivate a US think tank to push a pro-India narrative in the Republican camp like the Americans have been doing w/ORF in India. Lobbying isn't proving very effective.

We're not spending enough on lobbying in the US. For a country like ours, our "lobbyist expenditure" in the US looks like that of a poor country desperate to "buy" influence, not a powerhouse which has enough money to sway the narrative in it's favour, should it so desire. Our spending is in a couple of millions/yr ballpark but in order to have an effective pro-India lobby in the US, we need to not only spend 10x more but also hire the best in the business, and they won't do our bidding for cents on the dollar.

I agree with your take on cultivating a pro-India think tank in the US, but once again, it'd take sustained, long-term investments and efforts for years to come. Can't afford to penny pinch or bail out prematurely on such ventures.

 

[Ashwin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1960687879102820841

 

[Subgradewalker]

From the US perspective, EU members if NATO have always shirked their responsibility towards the alliance, spending less than the mandated 2% of GDP. This caused a lot of friction between them in Trump's 1st term. Now, Trump is using tarrifs to make EU pay for the largely free ride at American expense.

It's not about the finances per se. And USA have got a lot in return for what it gave to EU/NATO after 1945. US basically got a bloc as a foreign bases which had influence reaching far wide. The kind USA lacked then. It built it's rep on the connections of Europe during cold war, since most of them were colonial powers.

They still got a lot of common interest and common mindset to stay stable for a while.. but the coming times will surely test USA like never before. Even USSR wasn't able to test USA , the way China can.

 

[Shan]

People upload videos bashing India to get views. Irrespective of the content whether pro or con, you will get comment engagement. Indians also actively participate in driving these channels and videos.

There was a guy from Japan whom I was talking with who said - upload any video critical of India or a post and you will get atleast a decent number of views (much better than otherwise). It has been going on for a while as per him (they were taught this by their content creation team).

As the tensions have flared up, you can expect such instances on SM platforms to try and gain traction and a get a better grip on the narrative.

 

[Speedster1]

It's not about the finances per se. And USA have got a lot in return for what it gave to EU/NATO after 1945. US basically got a bloc as a foreign bases which had influence reaching far wide. The kind USA lacked then. It built it's rep on the connections of Europe during cold war, since most of them were colonial powers.

They still got a lot of common interest and common mindset to stay stable for a while.. but the coming times will surely test USA like never before. Even USSR wasn't able to test USA , the way China can.

To decouple from China, both the US and Euro need each other. They have both lost key industrial expertise like building icebreaker, for example. Right wing parties are gaining over incumbents in France (Le Pen), Eng (Farage) and Scotland. So in future, there may be more common ground on both sides of the Atlantic. Demographic change is a huge threat though.

 

[babablacksheep]

To decouple from China, both the US and Euro need each other. They have both lost key industrial expertise like building icebreaker, for example. Right wing parties are gaining over incumbents in France (Le Pen), Eng (Farage) and Scotland. So in future, there may be more common ground on both sides of the Atlantic. Demographic change is a huge threat though.

Right wing parties tend be more nationalist unlike left wing with globalism agenda.
Not exactly cooperation in a sense you think, they may have somewhat more understanding.

 

[vstol Jockey]

What the world has not realised till now is that India has started a tsunami in financial world. AND once again India did it on 5th Aug a fav date of Modi. India started Rupee vostro accounts for any nation and any currency on 5th Aug. Now all BRICS countries can deal in their local currency with anyother BRICS member without using $. 44% of worlds economy has dumped $ and nations which are not part of BRICS can also use the same financial system by bypassing SWIFT and reverting to Vostro accounts to bypass $. Once over 50% world economy bypasses USD as a currency, USA will see extremely high inflation as the reserve currency status of USD will collapse and with that that of Euro and Pound. Western world will go into extremely high inflation and their economies will collapse just like that of Venezuala. The effect of Nuke Strike done by Modi on 5th Aug on USD will be seen in next 4-5 months. Especially this Diwali. Trump will have to bow to Modi and seek pardon and forgiveness for what he tried to do to India.

 

[Defc0n]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1960717386765480250

Man, US folks are going all out! I wonder what going to happen when the Tump-term comes to an end, the next Prez candidates must be shi**ing bricks thinking about the future right now!

 

[Jaymax]

I have saying this for years on this very site that America is our biggest covert enemy only to be mocked by pro-Yankee lobby here. My same reply was to all members who wanted IAF to procure F-35s.

It is good that Trump's tantrums(or hidden motives) have unmasked the real America to our authorities who saw duing and post the latest Ops that who are our real friends and enemies when sh*t hits the fan.

Sooner or later, we need to prepare for a war with US. It could be 1971 redux, who knows?

There wont be a war with the US anytime soon.

This mess is the result of overhyped mediocrity on one end and an unbelievably comic bunch of amateurs (think a chimp holding an AK rifle) on the other.

India showed its cards too soon....
Pak read the room better and understood what needed to be done.

So while Pak earns goodwill and forex from the world's oldest profession India is now back to the 1980s US-India mode.

 

[D68]

I see this as a potential turning point for India.

More than Trump dismantling IN-US ties in a matter of days, Indians should be paying close attention to Western narrative after Op Sindoor. We have literally provided photographic evidence of our of our claims, yet Westerners continue to propagate Pakistani claims of 5-7 IAF jets shot down with zero proof on major social media platforms.

Time is ripe for Indians to strengthen our industrial and scientific base. I hope this and successive governments make concrete efforts to make this a reality.

 

[Shan]

So while Pak earns goodwill and forex from the world's oldest profession India is now back to the 1980s US-India mode.

I have doubts about the oil and crypto aspects of any deal made with the Pakistani state. A lot of hype was made about this particular aspect. Even the Chinese have dismissed all these claims. Sure, they might get handouts and loans.

 

[Jaymax]

I have doubts about the oil and crypto aspects of any deal made with the Pakistani state. A lot of hype was made about this particular aspect. Even the Chinese have dismissed all these claims. Sure, they might get handouts and loans.

They played the game they have been masters of since the 60s. All the wining and dining and later entertainment for Arabs has trained them well in pleasuring Important Men.

Pak's credit rating has been improved - which means it can raise new debt without IMF's restrictions. Pakistanis are feeling happy that they can borrow more. US has allowed them to go further in debt without making a single IMF concession.

This is a 2 cat fight with a monkey taking the bread again. Neither cat is winning irrespective of the spin you put.

 

[Shan]

Pak's credit rating has been improved - which means it can raise new debt without IMF's restrictions. Pakistanis are feeling happy that they can borrow more. US has allowed them to go further in debt without making a single IMF concession.

So, ultimately, the Pakitani's have fooled themselves and their awam irrespective of how things are viewed. Good ole times. Let the gravy train run for the fauji foundation.

 

[Jaymax]

So, ultimately, the Pakitani's have fooled themselves and their awam irrespective of how things are viewed. Good ole times. Let the gravy train run for the fauji foundation.

As I said before - its a rehash of the 80s. Dont be surprised if there is another Pressler like amendment to dump the clingy working girl in a few years.

 

[Defc0n]

So, ultimately, the Pakitani's have fooled themselves and their awam irrespective of how things are viewed. Good ole times. Let the gravy train run for the fauji foundation.

They played the game they have been masters of since the 60s. All the wining and dining and later entertainment for Arabs has trained them well in pleasuring Important Men.

Pak's credit rating has been improved - which means it can raise new debt without IMF's restrictions. Pakistanis are feeling happy that they can borrow more. US has allowed them to go further in debt without making a single IMF concession.

This is a 2 cat fight with a monkey taking the bread again. Neither cat is winning irrespective of the spin you put.

Only problem with this picture is that Pakistan is now "kind of under the protection" of US. The sudden inflow of cash and support will most definitely embolden them to do something rash and get US to pressurise India to not flatten Pakistan. The main problem is this - an economically strong (not actually strong, but the "gravy train" as mentioned above) makes Pak military leadership under a fanatic (Munir) an extremely dangerous neighbour.

I am expecting a big incident in India in near future where a huge number of casualty (civilian or military or both) are inflicted followed by a pre-emptive strike by Pak followed by US asking India to stand down. That's where the whole problem starts for us - India will be in a catch-22 situation, act and get hit by sanctions and restrictions - a lot of defence related stuff is now reliant on US (engines etc) and if we do indeed stand down, the internal situation goes out of hand - a great tool to ensure the current gov is toppled by using this as a means to anger the country men.

All the speech of CDS and other important people hinting about "Preparation for war" and today Trump saying, "They might start again" directly points to this. Another plus, Trump gets to say that he "stopped another war" and grab more attention!

I really, really hope that our politicians, diplomats and military are getting properly prepared for such a situation.

 

[RationalGuy]

Only problem with this picture is that Pakistan is now "kind of under the protection" of US. The sudden inflow of cash and support will most definitely embolden them to do something rash and get US to pressurise India to not flatten Pakistan. The main problem is this - an economically strong (not actually strong, but the "gravy train" as mentioned above) makes Pak military leadership under a fanatic (Munir) an extremely dangerous neighbour.

I am expecting a big incident in India in near future where a huge number of casualty (civilian or military or both) are inflicted followed by a pre-emptive strike by Pak followed by US asking India to stand down. That's where the whole problem starts for us - India will be in a catch-22 situation, act and get hit by sanctions and restrictions - a lot of defence related stuff is now reliant on US (engines etc) and if we do indeed stand down, the internal situation goes out of hand - a great tool to ensure the current gov is toppled by using this as a means to anger the country men.

All the speech of CDS and other important people hinting about "Preparation for war" and today Trump saying, "They might start again" directly points to this. Another plus, Trump gets to say that he "stopped another war" and grab more attention!

I really, really hope that our politicians, diplomats and military are getting properly prepared for such a situation.

If Pakistan does such a thing, it wont matter what US says. Remember, our Sukhois and Rafales don't fly on American engines dude . India will 100% hit back.

I actually did an entire simulation of such an event using ChatGPT. Not that its accurate in any way but was fun nonetheless.

Anyways, doing such a pre emptive strike right after your proxies do an attack is literally a declaration of war. India will definitely strike Pakistan from all 3 fronts, the ground, air and sea. If India was scared what the US thinks, we would have never had a missile or nuclear program at all. And now with Modis behavior it's clear he is not scared of the US either.

What's the worst that will happen? GE404 and 414 stops? Well then Tejas will be delayed for years yes, but we will just buy more Rafales and speed up Super Sukhoi upgrade while pursuing M88 4 for Tejas Mk2. It's not an ideal situation but India has many options on its table. Its not helpless that it will blindly listen to the US.

 

[Shan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1960717386765480250

Man, US folks are going all out! I wonder what going to happen when the Tump-term comes to an end, the next Prez candidates must be shi**ing bricks thinking about the future right now!

They are making fun of you and taking digs at the state of affairs. This is not new by the way. It is a reflection of the coverage that your country receives. Look at any Western TV show, it will start with Dharavi, cut to a railway station, or a bus station, pan out and then focus on actual SEZ where the economic activity is taking place even if topic under discussion is something like new infrastructure being built.

If diplomacy continues, as it has in the past - things will be brushed aside. Slowly but steadily things will brought to a normal status as it was pre-tariff status.

 

[Defc0n]

They are making fun of you and taking digs at the state of affairs. This is not new by the way. It is a reflection of the coverage that your country receives. Look at any Western TV show, it will start with Dharavi, cut to a railway station, or a bus station, pan out and then focus on actual SEZ where the economic activity is taking place even if topic under discussion is something like new infrastructure being built.

If diplomacy continues, as it has in the past - things will be brushed aside. Slowly but steadily things will brought to a normal status as it was pre-tariff status.

Will be the case with some one sane at the whelm of things in United States of America. This MAGA gang - starting with DJT can hardly be described as sane - and right now, it looks like an ego tussle to be very honest. The damage he has already done is significant and Indians no longer trusts US (they never fully did, but things were changing slowly). New Delhi has seen the writing on the wall and in future it will take US to cede more than it will be willing to get things back on good (pre-tarrif) terms with India. At least, this is my view on the situation.

 

[Shan]

The optimistic view from twitter. All good points. However, the amount of work needed will be mind-warping. UPSC....UPSC....how you make us cry.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1960722050823413968

 

[_Anonymous_]

There wont be a war with the US anytime soon.

This mess is the result of overhyped mediocrity on one end and an unbelievably comic bunch of amateurs (think a chimp holding an AK rifle) on the other.

India showed its cards too soon....
Pak read the room better and understood what needed to be done.

So while Pak earns goodwill and forex from the world's oldest profession India is now back to the 1980s US-India mode.

I think you're being unnecessarily harsh. The relationship was disrupted by a black swan event which was the incident in Pahalgam & its aftermath. Otherwise we'd still continue to have cordial relations with the Trump administration.

It may not have been warm given he's been turning on friend & for equally but we'd at least have a workable relationship going.

There are limits to which we can accommodate Trump's megalomania . Fauji Foundation faces no such limitations as they have literally nothing to offer except themselves & their land ,both of which USA requires sparingly as of now .

See Trump's humouring of Fauji Foundation especially their Field Marshal as an attempt to stoke insecurity in India & / or provoke jealousy.

Let Trump continue with his tariffs plan. As it is there are reports coming out from the US of the devastating impact it's had on the local economy affecting all sections including his own support base .

Soon those reports will turn into a veritable flood . If Trump doesn't take heed & course corrects he's in for a massive revolt from his own support base & the rank & file of the GOP.

Give it a few months maybe till the end of the year . That's the best case scenario . The worst case scenario would be a year from now . Either way his policies are doomed .

Besides it's not unlike Trump to pretend none of this happened if he's to kiss & make up . He may even blame his lackeys for misguiding him & throw someone under the bus .

It's a goddamned circus at the best of times in DC except now instead of a ring master we've a clown running the show.