India - United States Relations

Apart from Palki I do not see anyone putting out decent coverage of the Tariff issue. Most of the coverage has turned into shouting matches on the usual Indian english channels. The media landscape is truly a tragedy and it certainly is not due to the investment angle.

The views of youtube are certainly not increasing during these chaotic debates. I often fail to understand why anyone would bring seven odd panelists.

 
For weapons, we have alternative to Russia
For oil we have alternative to Russia
But we don't have an alternative market like USA.
 

For weapons, we have alternative to Russia
For oil we have alternative to Russia
But we don't have an alternative market like USA.
We do. It's India. Domestic market is an untapped potential of India. Imagine if just little urban population can drive economy, generate interest.. what a uplifting of society as a whole, not fragmented pockets like mumbai and bengaluru.. can do for India.

Private players need to actively invest in R&D, Innovation to move up the value chain and make domestic consumption the key driver of their revenue. And not as a re supplier of imported tech or goods.

So, in immediate term, it may seem like India is losing something big but have to understand that even USA can't rebuild it's manufacturing capacity immediately. This is a window of opportunity that can prove industry's mettle. But I don't know if our big industry players are ready for it.

Note : Few, who are actively doing something are then politicised ki india ko bech dia and all.. keeping other players hesitated.
This is small window that will decide if India remains dependent on others for advanced technology and products or have backbone. Vested interest don't want to lose their hold ( through govt and bureaucracy) over population but it's upto people now.

We shouldnt complain of brain drain and be against privatisation and R&D. Rather, have safeguard against monopolies and support to msme.

Not accusing anyone here. Just a very general and common opinion
 

The State Department is proposing requiring applicants for business and tourist visas to post a bond of up to $15,000 to enter the United States, a move that may make the process unaffordable for many. In a notice to be published in the Federal Register on Tuesday, the department said it would start a 12-month pilot program under which people from countries deemed to have high overstay rates and deficient internal document security controls could be required to post bonds of $5,000, $10,000 or $15,000 when they apply for a visa.
 
Its like selling the things inside your your right hand to left hand.
Gross misrepresentation of how economy works.

A) We aren't selling any high end or critical product to USA. Most of the sectors are being heavily automated. These were always unsustainable just like IT sectors reliance on Big Techs orders.
That's why you see China heavily investing in creating capabilities in higher value chain. Like advanced electronics, softwares, AI, advanced railway systems, cyber security, semi conductor etc. and it hasn't started now but since more than decade ago.

Otherwise their export dependent economy would have collapsed sooner without resistance. For all the talk of China+1.. +1 is hard because China now provides goods that are critical. Not just cheap labor anymore. Using cheap labor as advantage for export is a thing of past with closing window. Hence, you won't see any big transformation in Bangladesh or vietnam in long term. Even indian IT industry is facing loss with AI replacing the need of cheap low level programmers.

B) You are thinking India as a body and thinking that exchange of products inside is less impactful.. when that's the basis of economy and trade. "Consumption"

Let's break it down. While it's good to picture india as one body doing trade with a other body ( USA) .. it's not the foundation.
At the end of the day people earn by two common things.. providing services or providing goods. It doesn't matter if that buyer is indian or American. As long as one earns, he gets means to survive, grow and consume ( that's +1 customer for other providers).
He can employ too.. creating a positive cycle. How does govt earns? Through taxes.. voila. Revenue generation.

Now the issue is that as world is advancing technologically.. the needs are also advancing at both individual and societal level. And India lags behind in Indian sellers of the technology ( software+ hardware) of high level. Leaving us dependent on other economies for it. That means we are essentially paying other "body" helping their people economically with not enough wealth generation in India itself. Even for indigenously assembled or manufactured..if it's dependent on licensing from foreign OEM, the wealth generation remains sub-optimal. Add to that lack of govt authority over foreign entities.

Now you've two option.. sell your own product to mitigate losses ( which I have addressed above) or build indian, in India for India. Have a positive cycle of wealth generation in India. India has an advantage that it has high population resulting in potential of high number of customers, workforce etc.. but all that is just potential if untapped. And while govt has started focusing on it in recent years and flipped the narrative .. earlier population was considered a burden. And still needs huge reforms, policies, ecosystem to further progress. As mentioned in my above post.
 
Its like selling the things inside your your right hand to left hand.
Gross misrepresentation of how economy works.

A) We aren't selling any high end or critical product to USA. Most of the sectors are being heavily automated. These were always unsustainable just like IT sectors reliance on Big Techs orders.
That's why you see China heavily investing in creating capabilities in higher value chain. Like advanced electronics, softwares, AI, advanced railway systems, cyber security, semi conductor etc. and it hasn't started now but since more than decade ago.

Otherwise their export dependent economy would have collapsed sooner without resistance. For all the talk of China+1.. +1 is hard because China now provides goods that are critical. Not just cheap labor anymore. Using cheap labor as advantage for export is a thing of past with closing window. Hence, you won't see any big transformation in Bangladesh or vietnam in long term. Even indian IT industry is facing loss with AI replacing the need of cheap low level programmers. Indian IT sector failed at upgrading itself while China applying same model in past for manufacturing has upgraded itself to good degree. Hence, my skepticism about legacy corporates.

B) You are thinking India as a body and thinking that exchange of products inside is less impactful.. when that's the basis of economy and trade. "Consumption"

Let's break it down. While it's good to picture india as one body doing trade with a other body ( USA) .. it's not the foundation.
At the end of the day people earn by two common things.. providing services or providing goods. It doesn't matter if that buyer is indian or American. As long as one earns, he gets means to survive, grow and consume ( that's +1 customer for other providers).
He can employ too.. creating a positive cycle. How does govt earns? Through taxes.. voila. Revenue generation.

Now the issue is that as world is advancing technologically.. the needs are also advancing at both individual and societal level. And India lags behind in Indian sellers of the technology ( software+ hardware) of high level. Leaving us dependent on other economies for it. That means we are essentially paying other "body" helping their people economically with not enough wealth generation in India itself. Even for indigenously assembled or manufactured..if it's dependent on licensing from foreign OEM, the wealth generation remains sub-optimal. Add to that lack of govt authority over foreign entities.

Now you've two option.. sell your own product to mitigate losses ( which I have addressed above) or build indian, in India for India. Have a positive cycle of wealth generation in India. India has an advantage that it has high population resulting in potential of high number of customers, workforce etc.. but all that is just potential if untapped. And while govt has started focusing on it in recent years and flipped the narrative .. earlier population was considered a burden. And still needs huge reforms, policies, ecosystem to further progress. As mentioned in my above post.
 

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff held "useful and constructive" talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, a Kremlin aide said, two days before a deadline set by President Donald Trump for Russia to agree to peace in Ukraine or face new sanctions. Witkoff met Putin for around three hours on a last-minute mission to seek a breakthrough in the 3-1/2-year war that began with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
 
The simplest thing India can do right now is to enter in a trade agreement on specified goods with Russia and China. Mainly petroleum, petroleum products, auto parts (Russia needs them for autos and weapons too), Pharma and few agro / agro-products.

Also, formally launch BRICS currency and declare that all the trade in those goods will be in BRICS currency only for entire world. They want to buy Indian/Russian/Chinese goods, they buy in BRICS currency. Enter into currency swap deal with Russia and China on BRICS currency. Hit US where it hurts.
 
The simplest thing India can do right now is to enter in a trade agreement on specified goods with Russia and China. Mainly petroleum, petroleum products, auto parts (Russia needs them for autos and weapons too), Pharma and few agro / agro-products.

Also, formally launch BRICS currency and declare that all the trade in those goods will be in BRICS currency only for entire world. They want to buy Indian/Russian/Chinese goods, they buy in BRICS currency. Enter into currency swap deal with Russia and China on BRICS currency. Hit US where it hurts.
That's reactive. And only strengthens China. Trump knows that and hence he is leveraging it and even baiting to an extent.

Wise thing to do is to diplomatically side with global south, increase trade partnership with them. Stand our ground, levy digital taxes.. things that are not overboard for now. Diversify trade. But no brics currency. Rupee-rouble trade is already active. Joint statement in SCO targetting USA etc. A diplomatic faceoff. Maybe non-tarrif trade barrier and hitting where Trump feels it. i.e. lessen energy purchases from USA ( his backers and donors), Trump has been very vocal in supporting oil industry and went out of his way to sell us oil. while put off major defense deals on hold ( not cancel). Anyway, it's useless cause any deal signed will be delayed and used for arm twisting anyway.

Meanwhile focus inward and invite EU investments. Antagonise Trump, not against US establishment ( Congress) or Big tech. India needs technology rn..
No ally is happy with Trump. More attention you give to a monkey, it will act more. Be patient, ignore him as an individual vs individual ( that is what Trump wants, individual attention) , he will throw tantrum for a while. Even used pak as leverage.. let's see how low US can get as a "strategic partner".

Focus on domestic economy. While exporters will be hit who depend exclusively on US demand.. Indian economy is not export dependent. They are already focusing on building indian brands as per recent reports.

So yeah..
 
That's reactive. And only strengthens China. Trump knows that and hence he is leveraging it and even baiting to an extent.

Wise thing to do is to diplomatically side with global south, increase trade partnership with them. Stand our ground, levy digital taxes.. things that are not overboard for now. Diversify trade. But no brics currency. Rupee-rouble trade is already active. Joint statement in SCO targetting USA etc. A diplomatic faceoff. Maybe non-tarrif trade barrier and hitting where Trump feels it. i.e. lessen energy purchases from USA ( his backers and donors), Trump has been very vocal in supporting oil industry and went out of his way to sell us oil. while put off major defense deals on hold ( not cancel). Anyway, it's useless cause any deal signed will be delayed and used for arm twisting anyway.

Meanwhile focus inward and invite EU investments. Antagonise Trump, not against US establishment ( Congress) or Big tech. India needs technology rn..
No ally is happy with Trump. More attention you give to a monkey, it will act more. Be patient, ignore him as an individual vs individual ( that is what Trump wants, individual attention) , he will throw tantrum for a while. Even used pak as leverage.. let's see how low US can get as a "strategic partner".

Focus on domestic economy. While exporters will be hit who depend exclusively on US demand.. Indian economy is not export dependent. They are already focusing on building indian brands as per recent reports.

So yeah..
India must continue to pursue services + manufacturing exports growth. Right now we honestly don't have any cards vis a vis China or US except our large market. In the next 10 years we need to comprehensively build our national strength and economy. Until then, a direct confrontation with China or the US is not gonna be in our favour.

We can't piss Trump too much else he will stall our GE404 and GE414 engines and IAF will fall even further behind.
 
India must continue to pursue services + manufacturing exports growth. Right now we honestly don't have any cards vis a vis China or US except our large market. In the next 10 years we need to comprehensively build our national strength and economy. Until then, a direct confrontation with China or the US is not gonna be in our favour.

We can't piss Trump too much else he will stall our GE404 and GE414 engines and IAF will fall even further behind.
It's not about GE404 or MQ-9B but the chips and AI. Data Centers, Quantum partnership etc.. The technology of the future. Untill we have a stable semicon manufacturing, it's imperative to keep the tech coming and absorbing it.
Trade is just an excuse. Real fight is over who holds the dominance over critical tech. And if India wants a multi-polar order, it needs to be on par( minimum )with leaders.

And that's the way to unlocking exports potential and demand in coming decades.
 
The simplest thing India can do right now is to enter in a trade agreement on specified goods with Russia and China.
All of a sudden china become an ally? Current US president may be lunatic, but USA is not. USA & US current president isn't an enemy to India, but china & Chinese president is.

China had our 40k square kilometers of land, stopped export of neodymium to India which is an Essential part of EV industry, specialized fertilizers to India and did many calculated efforts to stop Indian growth.

Your argument of trade deal with china is like if any one have tensions with his brother,then he is going towards that guy for help who r@ped your sister in past .
It's not about GE404 or MQ-9B but the chips and AI. Data Centers, Quantum partnership etc.. The technology of the future. Untill we have a stable semicon manufacturing, it's imperative to keep the tech coming and absorbing it.
Trade is just an excuse. Real fight is over who holds the dominance over critical tech. And if India wants a multi-polar order, it needs to be on par( minimum )with leaders.

And that's the way to unlocking exports potential and demand in coming decades.
U read a lot from Pravin Sawhney.
 
That's reactive. And only strengthens China. Trump knows that and hence he is leveraging it and even baiting to an extent.
Not really, it is planning ahead. You think this will end with Trump? Trump is the only first idiot to jump head first into what is essentially an inflatory spiral to bump up American tariff revenue. Remember when Trump 1.0 introduced tariffs on China? On about 350 billion dollars worth of items? They never went away -- even after Biden came into power. For simple reasons, governments do not like to give away revenue. I can bet my top dollar that these tariffs will stay put. They may be lowered a bit but they will not go back to being what they were before.

We need to prepare for a world in which USA is more hostile towards us. We need a payment system which is not controlled by USA or by China -- even if it comes at a cost of dollar getting weaker and hence China getting stronger.

We need a multilateral currency. One that is not tied to USA. And this is the golden opportunity for that.

Wise thing to do is to diplomatically side with global south, increase trade partnership with them. Stand our ground, levy digital taxes.. things that are not overboard for now. Diversify trade. But no brics currency. Rupee-rouble trade is already active. Joint statement in SCO targetting USA etc. A diplomatic faceoff. Maybe non-tarrif trade barrier and hitting where Trump feels it. i.e. lessen energy purchases from USA ( his backers and donors), Trump has been very vocal in supporting oil industry and went out of his way to sell us oil. while put off major defense deals on hold ( not cancel). Anyway, it's useless cause any deal signed will be delayed and used for arm twisting anyway.
It is not either or. We can pursue global south and move away from dollar too. No need to levy new tariffs or taxes as it makes our own people suffer.

The problem is not just trade in itself. We hold a lot of dollars in form of Special Drawing Rights. Those are all tied up with American payment systems. If Trump kicks us out of that system ie SWIFT. Our 700 billion dollars worth of reserve becomes worthless and we will face hyperinflation. And before you say its impossible, remember, Trump just beat Canada, EU, UK and Japan, the closest US allies really bad.

Statements have ZERO impact because no one reads them any more. Actions have. Welcome to post diplomacy world.

Meanwhile focus inward and invite EU investments. Antagonise Trump, not against US establishment ( Congress) or Big tech. India needs technology rn..
No ally is happy with Trump. More attention you give to a monkey, it will act more. Be patient, ignore him as an individual vs individual ( that is what Trump wants, individual attention) , he will throw tantrum for a while. Even used pak as leverage.. let's see how low US can get as a "strategic partner".
US establishment and Trump are one and the same. There is no going back to normal from here now on. Trump is just the crazy son of a bitch who showed everyone that bullying works. Now if he dies tomorrow, his policies and strategies will stay put unless US suffers a major blow somewhere else which brings them back to negotiation table.

It's not really Trump vs India, it is US vs India now.

Big tech is not an issue at all. They are businessnes. They will simply follow profit and nothing else. The problem is US government now.

Focus on domestic economy. While exporters will be hit who depend exclusively on US demand.. Indian economy is not export dependent. They are already focusing on building indian brands as per recent reports.
As I said before, it is NOT either OR. You can move away from dollar, hit America where it hurts and focus on domestic too.
 
India must continue to pursue services + manufacturing exports growth. Right now we honestly don't have any cards vis a vis China or US except our large market. In the next 10 years we need to comprehensively build our national strength and economy. Until then, a direct confrontation with China or the US is not gonna be in our favour.
This is not a game of cards. It's more like checkers. You have plan ahead. Detaching yourself from USA is the only way out. Because US is not just demanding a trade deal, it is forcing India to have a foreign policy dictated from Whitehouse. That can not work. We dump Russia, tomorrow we have no one to depend upon for critical minerals, for critical military tech and energy.

One can not be so pragmatic that he justifies his own murder by pragmatism. Because in the end Pragmatists compromise on anything based on simple calculations. Look at Japan. That is what is a pure pragmatists future looks like.

We can't piss Trump too much else he will stall our GE404 and GE414 engines and IAF will fall even further behind.

I will say, time for dumping GE404 was in 2022. Next best time is now. HAL already manufactures RD-33MK under license. Its service life is same as GE-404 and not to mention its thurst output is same. It has FADEC and burns fuel cleanly with no visible smoke. Time to start a crash project to move Tejas to that engine while keeping our current assembly lines with F404 open. Spend some money, later you can sell that plane to wider customers who may have export restrictions from USA. Not to mention, it will force GE to speed up its delivery too.

Not to mention, India should put more money to get Kaveri working, this time for real. Buy beg borrow steal, use all way to get it working. Involve external companies but get that son of a bitch running with enough thrust. Spend money and buy time to get it to production as soon as possible.

On F414 etc, time for ToT was in 2019. That time has long gone. India's decision was to wait till ToT of F414 is finished and then utilize funds for development of AMCA. That is so stupid that I do not even know. China solved this problem already. They developed J-20 around AL-31 and now they have moved to WS-20 or something similar. Thats what we need to do. Get few F414 or even better get few RD-33MA with similar thrust profile and get crunching on development.
 
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All of a sudden china become an ally? Current US president may be lunatic, but USA is not. USA & US current president isn't an enemy to India, but china & Chinese president is.
No, not an ally. A part of multilateral/multipolar world. They want it, we want it. Having a currency other than dollar is just a step for that. Real world does not work in Ally-Enemy dichotomy. Realpolitik is the name of the game. China and India is facing same bully. About time we put in a financial system that is not controlled by that bully.

Your argument of trade deal with china is like if any one have tensions with his brother,then he is going towards that guy for help who r@ped your sister in past .
To put it in your analogy, it is more like building a road so that our sisters do not have to pass through Heeramandi, each time she goes to work. Apparently, both us and China have that problem now.

Do remember, China Japan also do a hell lot of trade and commerce since... forever. Japan LITERALLY raped Chinese in past.
 
Japan LITERALLY raped Chinese in past.
That japan is no longer existing now,even that China also no longer existing now. Regime change has happened in both countries after that mentioned horrific incident.

But 1962 🇨🇳 & 🇮🇳 is same in 2025 too, they proved that in 2020 Galwan incident. Also in 2025, by providing crucial intelligence to pak during op Sindoor.
China and India is facing same bully.
India & US is facing the same bully,the China.
So choose who is less evil between china& USA. My pick is USA.
 
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