Now where are those who kept saying that AMCA + Rafale were good enough for IAF to take on PLAAF?
I am still saying this, Su-57MKI is coming. Just wait and watch.
I am still saying this, Su-57MKI is coming. Just wait and watch.
IAF looking to acquire 2-3 squadrons of fifth-generation fighter jets from foreign sources
- Thread starter Ashwin
- Start date
Yuh my friend who looks like and is a beggar and from Somalia can buy my Mercedes. Man Indians are such paranoid and emotional people. J36 and J50 are crown jewel of Chinese tech, they didn't even give J20 and banned it for exports you think they will give J36 or J50? Ig coming from a poor society makes us think in such paranoid and ridiculous ways, we always assume the worst without even rationally analyzing the facts and context.
No. As i said only if we can integrate F35 with our AWACS, Astras should we take it. OK maybe America wont let us integrate F35 to comms with Su 30 but integration with NETRA AWACS is must, otherwise another gold plated lone wolf jet like Rafale.
If america says yes to Awacs and ASTRA integration, then we're in buisness.
No one knows that what India is looking for, the top level itself is confused as of now. Don't want to spend too much on imports but same time want best out of it. Tough decision.
Given that it's almost official that we're looking for a stop-gap 5th gen jet fighter, people really need to get into perspective what stop-gap means. I had hoped we could do without a foreign 5th gen taking away precious resources for AMCA, but here we are.
We're looking to induct a small number of fighters, 2-3 squadrons at most, meaning 40-60 fighters. With such a limited numbers, there's no point investing in extensive, multi-billion dollar modifications for the jet (Rafale doesn't count as the plan was always to get more of them, >100). MKI-fication would cost a lot in terms of financial and technological resources, take up a lot of time (5-7 years even if you sign for it tomorrow), will take away crucial resources from the AMCA programme and the delivery timelines will coincide AMCA MK1's service induction. As such, any extensive modifications costing billions on top of upfront purchase and 5-7yrs is out of question. It'll NEED to be inducted before 2030, otherwise the entire concept of "stop-gap" is rendered moot.
It'll be a quick induction, 2-3 squadrons worth of jets (40-60) at most. The only modifications IAF will be negotiating hard for is Astra & RudraM integration (former more so than latter), and possibly local MRO. If it's the F-35, S-400 won't pose any issue whatsoever, if we're offered something along the lines of the Israeli F-35I style deal. If it's the Su-57, it HAS to come with AL-51F, otherwise it's a no-go. Russo-Ukraine conflict, payment issues and potential sanctions threat will complicate matters, as will Russia's ability to produce & deliver the jets on required timelines (they're yet to deliver the remaining 2 sqdns of S-400).
To sum it up, MKI-fication of any of the potential contenders is unviable, as is it's induction after 2030. It has to come before 2030 with only the "must-have" mods.
We're looking to induct a small number of fighters, 2-3 squadrons at most, meaning 40-60 fighters. With such a limited numbers, there's no point investing in extensive, multi-billion dollar modifications for the jet (Rafale doesn't count as the plan was always to get more of them, >100). MKI-fication would cost a lot in terms of financial and technological resources, take up a lot of time (5-7 years even if you sign for it tomorrow), will take away crucial resources from the AMCA programme and the delivery timelines will coincide AMCA MK1's service induction. As such, any extensive modifications costing billions on top of upfront purchase and 5-7yrs is out of question. It'll NEED to be inducted before 2030, otherwise the entire concept of "stop-gap" is rendered moot.
It'll be a quick induction, 2-3 squadrons worth of jets (40-60) at most. The only modifications IAF will be negotiating hard for is Astra & RudraM integration (former more so than latter), and possibly local MRO. If it's the F-35, S-400 won't pose any issue whatsoever, if we're offered something along the lines of the Israeli F-35I style deal. If it's the Su-57, it HAS to come with AL-51F, otherwise it's a no-go. Russo-Ukraine conflict, payment issues and potential sanctions threat will complicate matters, as will Russia's ability to produce & deliver the jets on required timelines (they're yet to deliver the remaining 2 sqdns of S-400).
To sum it up, MKI-fication of any of the potential contenders is unviable, as is it's induction after 2030. It has to come before 2030 with only the "must-have" mods.
What looks like stop-gap, won't remain stop-gap. We very well may procure over 120 2-seat Su-57MKIs, especially if Russia is honest about providing TOT of Al-51F1 engines. We should also demand R-77M as now it has fully become operational.
2/3 squadrons are likely to be an emergency procurement and I see less chances of it going to 6-7 odd squadrons. Long term bet for any 5th gen. platform should be an Indian platform. You cannot be beholden to other countries anymore. The Russo-Ukraine war has sorted some things out for us. Otherwise the government would not be doing geopolitical gymnastics with the French and British for aero engines. It has taken India a considerable time to get these things sorted.
One reason why I think this will be a keenly fought contest is that DT has been making changes to ITAR.
Imo, we wouldn't have got very far with MQ-9B (armed vs unarmed previously + local production+ consultancy for DRDO progs) had some key compromises not been reached on ITAR.
ITAR review gives India a chance to align with US allies
The Trump Administration's willingness to review ITAR regulations presents an opportunity to elevate India's status for defense sales. Amending the US Arms Export Control Act could enhance Indo-US defense cooperation, aligning it with India's STA1 status and facilitating easier access to...
If we play our cards well, we may even be able to get our own FACO line, like the one in Italy.
Just like we have 270 odd Su-30s and will likely have 300-400 overall Tejas series fighters in total(both being 4.5 gen). There is also scope for 120-180 Su-57MKI(2-seat) and 250-400 AMCA stealth heavyweight & medium weight 5th gen fighters(respectively) in our fleet. Su-57 is in different weight class when compared to AMCA. The M1 variant has reportedly wider fuselage for bigger internal weapons bay that could house 8-10 BVR missiles and bigger bombs/surface-to-air weapons. Against popular (mis)conception, I don't think Su-57 can replace AMCA or vice-versa.
The original plan was to get ~ 180 Rafales & ~ 200-250 FGFA between 2030-35 . AMCA was always scheduled for delivery post 2030 in almost the same timelines as we're seeing now. The quantity for the AMCA remains unknown as far as our previous plans go.
Cut to 2025 , we've only 36 Rafales , no FGFA , no AMCA & no sign of the rest of the MMRCA / MRFA contract.
Coming to the present if the objective is a stop gap arrangement , we get the FAs in limited nos of between 2-4 squadrons in an as is condition be it the F-35s or the Su-57 with minimal modifications except those deemed absolutely essential to integrate it into our networks & to arm it with we consider essential for the role we're expecting of it as far as indigenous weapons go.
What you're suggesting is the very opposite of what needs to be done.
Because I don't believe in either 'short-game' or 'short-gain'. Having 40-50 silver-bullet fighter fleet is worthless when our enemy is adding 100+ heavyweight 5th gen fighters every year.
Thus, I don't beileve in any stop-gaps. Once we acquire Su-57s, the initial number may be just 50-60, but the eventual number would be ~ 200.
Plan B, start with what you already possess to reduce the time, by now ndian should have been flying a 5th gen aircraft. The high time has already passed this is red alert now. By the time all these fancy AMCA, F35 come it will be 2040, you can't wait that long because adversaries have the 5th gen flying.
Employ Kaveri for a 5th gen stealth fighter, be it little smaller, without wet thrust, this can be done way before AMCA comes. IIT can develop engine control module they have this capability. Because this is the only area which is troubling. Along with that keep the super sukhoi project going on, because any how you will have to upgrade the Su30s sometime in future. Surely money is not a problem for indegenous projects.
Deal with france already signed, AMCA will be a 5.5+ gen aircraft by the time it rolls out. It's arlight.
Employ Kaveri for a 5th gen stealth fighter, be it little smaller, without wet thrust, this can be done way before AMCA comes. IIT can develop engine control module they have this capability. Because this is the only area which is troubling. Along with that keep the super sukhoi project going on, because any how you will have to upgrade the Su30s sometime in future. Surely money is not a problem for indegenous projects.
Deal with france already signed, AMCA will be a 5.5+ gen aircraft by the time it rolls out. It's arlight.
Right now the objective is to survive the present onslaught. For that we may wish for 200 nos 5th Gen FAs but we aren't getting them in the time schedule we may want them for various reasons all of them known & need not be repeated.
Once we're through dealing with this clear & present danger we can take a call on how many more of the silver bullets we need after due appraisal of all the on going programs - whether indigenous or imported & their progress.
India is not a NATO nation nor is India a complete legacy driven nation (USSR). There needs to be a certain level of strategic clarity that the defence establishment and those associated with it or concerned about it need to understand - "You need weapon systems/platforms that work well with your systems, your aircrafts, your AD, your vision for the forces, and work against your adversary". The French will take their pound of flesh but will make things work. The future fleet of IAF has new challenges on the horizons.
I do not praise the Chinese usually but their vision (as enabled by their economy) has really allowed them to bring to fruition things like J-20 and J-35. They work well with their ISR, AD, and missile packages.
If AMCA fails to materialize and you need 12-10 squadrons of Imported 5th gen. platforms, I would urge you to think critically about the kind of future the IAF faces. MKI by itself is a time consuming process. Do you really have the resources to run so many projects simultaneously?
2-3 squad. 5th gen. imports are an emergency procurement and must remain as such.
The same goes for stealth drones and loitering munitions. If the government does not take them seriously, it will find itself bringing knives to a gun fight.
Standardisation is really biting India in the *censored*. IAF is not backed by any known power. However, it must instil fear into hostile elements whether by building a Frankenstein based on brute power or a suave swordsman that relies on precision.
I do not praise the Chinese usually but their vision (as enabled by their economy) has really allowed them to bring to fruition things like J-20 and J-35. They work well with their ISR, AD, and missile packages.
If AMCA fails to materialize and you need 12-10 squadrons of Imported 5th gen. platforms, I would urge you to think critically about the kind of future the IAF faces. MKI by itself is a time consuming process. Do you really have the resources to run so many projects simultaneously?
2-3 squad. 5th gen. imports are an emergency procurement and must remain as such.
The same goes for stealth drones and loitering munitions. If the government does not take them seriously, it will find itself bringing knives to a gun fight.
Standardisation is really biting India in the *censored*. IAF is not backed by any known power. However, it must instil fear into hostile elements whether by building a Frankenstein based on brute power or a suave swordsman that relies on precision.
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What kind of numbers is the Italian FACO line putting out? If we don't have the scale (100+), then a local prod will only make things more expensive than necessary. Don't get me wrong, a local production line would be great to have but I doubt IAF/MoD will be too fussed about it.One reason why I think this will be a keenly fought contest is that DT has been making changes to ITAR.
Imo, we wouldn't have got very far with MQ-9B (armed vs unarmed previously + local production+ consultancy for DRDO progs) had some key compromises not been reached on ITAR.
ITAR review gives India a chance to align with US allies
The Trump Administration's willingness to review ITAR regulations presents an opportunity to elevate India's status for defense sales. Amending the US Arms Export Control Act could enhance Indo-US defense cooperation, aligning it with India's STA1 status and facilitating easier access to...m.economictimes.com
If we play our cards well, we may even be able to get our own FACO line, like the one in Italy.
Yeah, a FACO line may be too optimistic but local spares production on similar lines as TASL S-92, Apache are a possibility.
After the recent SOS/fiasco involving the UK RN F-35, LM might weigh the benefits of producing atleast some F-35 parts in India to support customers like Singapore, Israel and potentially UAE. They may even pay for some of the infra costs.
Strategic clarity? This word does not exist in the dictionary of Indian policy makers. Till last year whole RSS, BJP, including the government was cursing Maldives, the trumpets of boycotting Maldvies for holidays were beaten 24x7. Many Indians cancelled their holidays to Maldives for the nation. And here you are exactly after one year, the PM of India himself visiting Maldives and promising better trade, infrastructure assistance and capital to Maldives. What message it will go to public that the leader has double standards? One side you prepare whole nation, boost adrenaline of nationalism into their veins and then light up a dud skyshot. Maldives knew it from day one how to play the Indians.
The same is the scenario with defence procurement, they have ample of money, Money was never a problem but the problem is flickering mindset of Indian leaders for short term gains. You think India can't develop a 5th gen aircraft, it is wrong. India could have developed it long ago but the leaders were not ready to give the job to indigenous designers.
Here chief designer of LCA is clearly heard saying they are fully capable of developing a 5th gen aircraft, and even 6th gen know how is there.
F35 : we ll not get source code for Indian weapons integration or testing.
It's true stealth ,can bought for the stop gap time we need.
But LiNK with indian network is must , being 5th gen it's sortie availability rate is less and its internal weapons load pylons are few and cannot do all the job on its own.
Without networking via some methods, i think it ll be a deal breaker.
Rafale : I think we still only get a limited source code for indigenous weapon integration.
Sortie Availability rate are highest.
Will be the main battle fighter in any offense.
Makes sense to have make in India to support its availability.
If we can get source code with MRFA , it ll be excellent weapon of choice. We can integrate latest R&D Trump cards .
Su 57 : We can integrate Su 30 upgrades into Su 57, Su 30 upgrade program is already running.
We can even retire first batch of 40-60 Su 30 mki + 12 attrition loss and replace it with Su 57 Mki . ( 200 Su 30 upg + 80 Su 57 Mki ,
It has the added advantage of simultaneously Upgrading Su 30 mki + adding new Su 57 Mki )
But We won't get it in the time frame it's required as stop gap.
Tejas Mk1A and Mk 2 : We get the numbers.
High availability rate. Advanced than 80 % of our current fleet . private sector team participation .
Most important of all , we can integrate every tiny bit of latest R&D without waiting for foreign OEM testing/ expensing huge sum ..+ we can make it truly versatile in firing every weapon we have ..
But we haven't signed US GE 414 / French JV engine yet.
AMCA : it the spear head of R&D in latest tech, dripping down to Tejas and Sukhoi series .
Truly the fighter we are hoping for..
Will be last of all above fighter to induct.
Still the critical Engine deal is Not signed yet.
It's true stealth ,can bought for the stop gap time we need.
But LiNK with indian network is must , being 5th gen it's sortie availability rate is less and its internal weapons load pylons are few and cannot do all the job on its own.
Without networking via some methods, i think it ll be a deal breaker.
Rafale : I think we still only get a limited source code for indigenous weapon integration.
Sortie Availability rate are highest.
Will be the main battle fighter in any offense.
Makes sense to have make in India to support its availability.
If we can get source code with MRFA , it ll be excellent weapon of choice. We can integrate latest R&D Trump cards .
Su 57 : We can integrate Su 30 upgrades into Su 57, Su 30 upgrade program is already running.
We can even retire first batch of 40-60 Su 30 mki + 12 attrition loss and replace it with Su 57 Mki . ( 200 Su 30 upg + 80 Su 57 Mki ,
It has the added advantage of simultaneously Upgrading Su 30 mki + adding new Su 57 Mki )
But We won't get it in the time frame it's required as stop gap.
Tejas Mk1A and Mk 2 : We get the numbers.
High availability rate. Advanced than 80 % of our current fleet . private sector team participation .
Most important of all , we can integrate every tiny bit of latest R&D without waiting for foreign OEM testing/ expensing huge sum ..+ we can make it truly versatile in firing every weapon we have ..
But we haven't signed US GE 414 / French JV engine yet.
AMCA : it the spear head of R&D in latest tech, dripping down to Tejas and Sukhoi series .
Truly the fighter we are hoping for..
Will be last of all above fighter to induct.
Still the critical Engine deal is Not signed yet.
They gave the job to develop a 4th Gen and 4.5 gen FA. IAF haven't recieved a full squadron worth yet.
And LCA was conceptualized decades ago. From which angle it would've made sense to ask them do design and develop a 5th or 6th gen FA?
Would you not criticise any fund sanctioned for a 5th gen FA just a decade ago? When HAL was having issues with LCAMk1.. let alone 1A or MK2.
You think HAL lacks money?? It has around 4K Cr. Sitting in the bank.
AMCA was cleared few days ago only, even though tech existed ages ago, almost a decade ago. The funding were cleared for building the ecosystem only after Op Sindoor after backlash by people when there was news that Pakistan could acquire Chinese 5th gen J35.
How? Will it have DAS and EOTS from day 1 apart from supercruising? What makes it 5.5 gen when I don't see it being even 5th gen with F414, external EO pods and unlike DAS systems on Mk1? DRDO wants to complete trials for this by 2034 and somehow induct by 2035, so a proper 5th gen isn't coming before 2040 equipped with bare minimum of what F-35 or Chinese 5th gens achieved almost a decade ago. By that time China might have 1000+ 5th gens and a dozen 6th gen squadrons.