Air Engagement of Operation Sindoor : Analysis

Super Sukhoi is 15 years away from being FULLY realised.
We are adding incremental updates to MKI to keep it updated in light of the new threats faced.
We don't know how effective the Su-57 is . We're only going by what we read & it really boils down to what we choose to believe on it given opinions in the MSM & SM on it is from end to end of the spectrum.

Secondly there's the issue of the war in Ukraine. The contracted S-400s of which 2 regiments were pending & which were finally supposed be delivered next year has now seen another revision in delivering time lines. We're getting one next year & the last regiment in 2027.

Not many reports coming out on Russia's own production status of the Su-57 for the past year or two. Add to that we've no news on the testing & more importantly the certification of the AL-51 on their latest model M of the Su-57.

There are too many gaps which need to be filled for is to get a couple of squadrons from the Russians & as of now I've only touched upon the problems on the Russian side. Our own MoD is not quite known to be agile in closing such deals.

Add technical & commercial negotiations to the mix. It's a bridge too late , too far IMHO.
Both GOI & Russia are well aware of these bottlenecks. That is why a roadmap is being charted for acquisition of Su-57. PAF's J-35s won't cause too much trouble to IAF but PLAAF's J-36 & J-50 along with updated J-20As with WS-15s and GaN radars are a serious problem for us. That's why Su-57 with Indian avionics is being considered to deal with all above threats and give a breathing space to IAF up until 2040(when AMCA becomes fully combat ready).

PS: Did you read the acknowledgement of Dassault Chief Eric Trappier(posted by @Herciv) when he said that Rafale isn't essentially better than the Russian fighters? This was after they got some feedback from IAF about our Ops. What does it mean? Simply everything Vstol said about MKI & Rafale was correct. If MKI is so combat effective then Su-57 with our avionics is simply going to be a game-changer just like MKI & BrahMos, two of other Indo-Russian JVs/Collaborations are.
 
We are adding incremental updates to MKI to keep it updated in light of the new threats faced.
How capable are these incremental upgrades to take on the J-20 + J-16 combo ? For on our part we plan to go up against them with our own ( un upgraded / partially upgraded ) MKI + Rafale combo & as we understand from Operation Sindoor , the Rafales for one reason or another hasn't quite lived up to its promise.

If this is the situation against Paxtan you can imagine what it's going to be like against China . Having said that I'm not worried about Paxtan or PAF to be precise even if they inducted the F-35 with the HQ-19 & whatever AWACS system the Chinese off load on to them .

Neither do I believe the IAF will lose its sleep over it irrespective what they project to the media . It just means higher attrition rates for us. This causes another problem.

Higher attrition rates against Paxtan when we're due to go up against China by say 2030 doesn't augur well for I doubt with our cumbersome defence acquisition procedures we'd get those replacements in time.

Now add to that production issues of different kinds in both France & Russia - the countries we're most likely to turn to in such situations.
Both GOI & Russia are well aware of these bottlenecks. That is why a roadmap is being charted for acquisition of Su-57.

PAF's J-35s won't cause too much trouble to IAF
Agreed. Said as much in the above paragraph.

but PLAAF's J-36 & J-50
You can leave this out of the equation. By the time these FAs are inducted which I see happening only in the mid 2030s whatever we have going against China will be done with one way or another

along with updated J-20As with WS-15s and GaN radars are a serious problem for us. That's why Su-57 with Indian avionics is being considered to deal with all above threats and give a breathing space to IAF up until 2040(when AMCA becomes fully combat ready).
What you're suggesting has been discussed before & my opinion conveyed then. We lack resources to handle 2 separate 5th Gen FA programmes simultaneously.

Moreover the idea behind getting those Su-57s is prompt induction within say 3-4 years of the order. If we're going to revive the FGFA program which is what you're suggesting that's a good decade to a decade & a half to fully realise what we desire.

What's the point inducting both the FGFA & the AMCA Mk-2 around the same time ?!
PS: Did you read the acknowledgement of Dassault Chief Eric Trappier(posted by @Herciv) when he said that Rafale isn't essentially better than the Russian fighters? This was after they got some feedback from IAF about our Ops. What does it mean? Simply everything Vstol said about MKI & Rafale was correct. If MKI is so combat effective then Su-57 with our avionics is simply going to be a game-changer just like MKI & BrahMos, two of other Indo-Russian JVs/Collaborations are.
Provided we get them NOW. Not 10-15 years later which is what it would be with the kind of modifications you're suggesting. This is the reason I suggested we get the Su-57M in an as is where is basis .

No monkey models & we need the freedom to integrate SOME of our weapons onto it (possibly avionics too IF NEEDED except it shouldn't take up a lot of time ), which in turn means all these modifications must be kept to the bare minimum.

Any deep modifications / upgrades is time consuming & works against the idea of quick induction besides being self defeating tbh.
 
We are adding incremental updates to MKI to keep it updated in light of the new threats faced.

Both GOI & Russia are well aware of these bottlenecks. That is why a roadmap is being charted for acquisition of Su-57. PAF's J-35s won't cause too much trouble to IAF but PLAAF's J-36 & J-50 along with updated J-20As with WS-15s and GaN radars are a serious problem for us. That's why Su-57 with Indian avionics is being considered to deal with all above threats and give a breathing space to IAF up until 2040(when AMCA becomes fully combat ready).

PS: Did you read the acknowledgement of Dassault Chief Eric Trappier(posted by @Herciv) when he said that Rafale isn't essentially better than the Russian fighters? This was after they got some feedback from IAF about our Ops. What does it mean? Simply everything Vstol said about MKI & Rafale was correct. If MKI is so combat effective then Su-57 with our avionics is simply going to be a game-changer just like MKI & BrahMos, two of other Indo-Russian JVs/Collaborations are.
We need stop gap LO fighter until AMCA arrives, now I am beggining to think this. Even if it's the worst LO it's better than no LO. But it'd a burning problem of how. Russia will milk us dry and it will be biblical in scale compared to previous programmes. If we go with Su 57 we can expect to be bled a lot and tons of last minute demands/payments. If only we had focused on AMCA earlier, we wouldn't be in such a shitty situation today. CDR and IAF approval done in 2016 but whopping 8 years for programme approval is unacceptable. India will pay a price for this attitude now one way or the other.
 
How capable are these incremental upgrades to take on the J-20 + J-16 combo ?
Good enough for a defensive battle under our own IADS umbrella.
For on our part we plan to go up against them with our own ( un upgraded / partially upgraded ) MKI + Rafale combo & as we understand from Operation Sindoor , the Rafales for one reason or another hasn't quite lived up to its promise.
No. Rafale did quite well. There were some shorcomings which shall be addressed in due course. Rest is simply OPSEC and shouldn't be discussed here.
If this is the situation against Paxtan you can imagine what it's going to be like against China . Having said that I'm not worried about Paxtan or PAF to be precise even if they inducted the F-35 with the HQ-19 & whatever AWACS system the Chinese off load on to them .

Neither do I believe the IAF will lose its sleep over it irrespective what they project to the media . It just means higher attrition rates for us. This causes another problem.

Higher attrition rates against Paxtan when we're due to go up against China by say 2030 doesn't augur well for I doubt with our cumbersome defence acquisition procedures we'd get those replacements in time.

Now add to that production issues of different kinds in both France & Russia - the countries we're most likely to turn to in such situations.



Agreed. Said as much in the above paragraph.


You can leave this out of the equation. By the time these FAs are inducted which I see happening only in the mid 2030s whatever we have going against China will be done with one way or another


What you're suggesting has been discussed before & my opinion conveyed then. We lack resources to handle 2 separate 5th Gen FA programmes simultaneously.

Moreover the idea behind getting those Su-57s is prompt induction within say 3-4 years of the order. If we're going to revive the FGFA program which is what you're suggesting that's a good decade to a decade & a half to fully realise what we desire.

What's the point inducting both the FGFA & the AMCA Mk-2 around the same time ?!

Provided we get them NOW. Not 10-15 years later which is what it would be with the kind of modifications you're suggesting. This is the reason I suggested we get the Su-57M in an as is where is basis .

No monkey models & we need the freedom to integrate SOME of our weapons onto it (possibly avionics too IF NEEDED except it shouldn't take up a lot of time ), which in turn means all these modifications must be kept to the bare minimum.

Any deep modifications / upgrades is time consuming & works against the idea of quick induction besides being self defeating tbh.
We will get Su-57Es within this decade but thankfully with full source-codes so that we could intergrate any weapons with it. Su-57MKI(2-seat version) is going to be made in India from 2030-35. From then onwards AMCA shall take over. The roadmap is being secretly discussed and the world will know in due time;)
 
. If we go with Su 57.
If we do decide for go for su57, than 5 years are enough for minor changes in design that will have significant benifit in rcs reduction, simultaneously developing varients of our avionics( like a varient of Virupaksha radar being prepared for super sukhoi) and sub systems to mki the su57, along with preparation for domestic production line.
First squad of su57( delivery in 2030-31, directly from russia), can be original design with our systems, from 2nd or 3rd squadron we can have delivery of domestic su57mki with modified airframe for better stealth( from 2032-2033).
All ~100+ su57 delivered by 2036-37, and First AMCA delivery to also begin in 2035-36.

But for all this to happen, we need to sign the deal "now", along with government being open to risk taking, and also bringing it in mission mode etc to minimise any delay, but we know realistically all this is not possible for India.
So it's just a fantasy I guess.
 
We need stop gap LO fighter until AMCA arrives, now I am beggining to think this. Even if it's the worst LO it's better than no LO. But it'd a burning problem of how. Russia will milk us dry and it will be biblical in scale compared to previous programmes. If we go with Su 57 we can expect to be bled a lot and tons of last minute demands/payments. If only we had focused on AMCA earlier, we wouldn't be in such a shitty situation today. CDR and IAF approval done in 2016 but whopping 8 years for programme approval is unacceptable. India will pay a price for this attitude now one way or the other.
Su-57 being a bad Stealth jet is just propaganda. Don't fall for it. For years we heard how Euro-Canards were so awesome against junk Russian fighters but now Dassault Chief has himself admitted that Rafale isn't necessarily better than Russian fighters. Anybody who says Su-57 is crap doesn't understand Russian engineering or doctrine.

Su-30MKI is the best 4.5 jet ever designed. Su-57 is its follow-up. You can only guess how good it is. Anyways, IAF is a very practical force. They know what's right for them and a roadmap for next 10 years is currently being charted, about which the world will know in due course.
 
Su-57 being a bad Stealth jet is just propaganda

Even russian doctrine would benifit with a more stealthy design.
Just because it's stealth is "acceptable" for russian doctrine, doesn't mean more stealth is not desirable.
 
I am getting more and more bullish on MWF. I think it can substitute Rafale and MKI in many role. @Rajput Lion , Bro. you had compared MWF with Rafale and I had countered it by saying that evenif it performs 70% of Rafale, I shall be very happy. However, with new Information regarding its AI capabilities and other is surfacing, I am compelled to admit that what you were saying was right. Even IAF chief said that both the aircrafts are almost equal in performance. Hats off to you.
Fully upgraded MKI will be superior than Rafale.
Is it so sure ?
As said day one IAF never imagine such a PAF opposition, so Rafale fitted for ground stricke with just MICA in auto defense.
later, it was PAF that refuse to fight, so even if Meteor were under the wings, no target to shoot.
Whole squadrons were involved in the strike package? And after delivering their payload, what were they doing? Why weren’t they part of the BARCAPs or extending the anti-air bubble?
 

Even russian doctrine would benifit with a more stealthy design.
Just because it's stealth is "acceptable" for russian doctrine, doesn't mean more stealth is not desirable.
The computer simulation you've quoted doesn't show that Su-57's stealth is bad. Yes, it is not like F-35 but then that is a given. Even J-20 doesn't have F-35 level stealth yet PLAAF is adding more than 200 J-20s into their fleet.

Su-57 is designed to kill other stealth jets. That's why it is proper J-20/35 killer for us. To penetrate advance IADS, we'll need Rafale F5 + Neuron 2 or Su-57MKI + Okhotnik-Bs.
 
The last I saw from indan air force was that it had a RCS of 0.5
Wrong and downright laughable. Russians said that F-22's overall RCS was 0.3m2 while Su-57's was 0.5m2 from all-aspect average likely of scale models. Real jet's RCS is much lower and once Su-57M1 comes online with Raptor like flat-nozzles, its all-aspect RCS will also improve significantly.

Even the simulation shows -27dBsm frontal RCS. Real Felon has way better value than that. So frontal RCS is even below -30dBsm. It's proper stealth from front.
 
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The computer simulation you've quoted doesn't show that Su-57's stealth is bad. Yes, it is not like F-35 but then that is a given. Even J-20 doesn't have F-35 level stealth yet PLAAF is adding more than 200 J-20s into their fleet.

Su-57 is designed to kill other stealth jets. That's why it is proper J-20/35 killer for us. To penetrate advance IADS, we'll need Rafale F5 + Neuron 2 or Su-57MKI + Okhotnik-Bs.

J20 has better stealth than su57.

One of the biggest weakness of su57 is its naked irst, which when working, increases it's rcs by a lot.

Su57 will barely hold itself against invading j20,f35 with the support of integrated ground based air defense systems, and L band "presence detector"( though using those su57 will also expose it's presence) small arrays it has, and even those L band "presence detector at most" are for relatively short range, back up solution, they are not "stealth killer" in any significant way, neither does multiple(3) small aesa radars on sides and back, while they increase its situational awareness, but su57 will still be at disadvantage of being detected first, if it had j20 level frontal stealth, It would be satisfactory but it does not posses that.
It's barely a "stealth" jet with it's irst closed, with it's irst open it rcs increases multifold, which also means su57 cannot use it's passive Irst without compromising stealth.

J20, f35 even without those L band arrays and distrubed aesa radars, would still be much better in defensive role supported by ground based and other aerial assets.




the way stealth fighters are supposed to operate is to not expose themselves, electronically too, getting data from other systems or exposing one stealth jet( activating its sensors) from a package of multiple stealth jets, so having better stealth is important.

Now I'm not saying those unique features that su57 has are not beneficial, they are, but they don't overcome the disadvantages it's compromised stealth brings.

A su57 with all the same features, bit with design modifications with better stealth and irst enclosed in eots/crystal dome will be better than j20 imo, but in its current form it's not.
Plus better stealth also helps against other enemy assets like ground based radars, awacs etc that will feed data onto enemy stealth jets.



What su57 do relatively excel in compared to f35 is escaping/dodging if it's locked onto & a missile( especially IR missile)is fired at it, is Dircm will also help in those cases.
But it also much higher chances of being locked into first.
 
Even J-20 doesn't have F-35 level stealth yet PLAAF is adding more than 200 J-20s into their fleet.
Indeed, but even plaaf would also love if they can bring rcs of j20 down more, and in later j20 models they have made structural changes not just for additional systems but also for rcs.

Su57, while better than any other non stealth platform, is not a "stealth killer" or an equivalent that can take on f35 with it's unique traits according to russian doctrine, it can barely hold itself "inside russian territory supported for all the other systems" against invading f35s.
 
Indeed, but even plaaf would also love if they can bring rcs of j20 down more, and in later j20 models they have made structural changes not just for additional systems but also for rcs.

Su57, while better than any other non stealth platform, is not a "stealth killer" or an equivalent that can take on f35 with it's unique traits according to russian doctrine, it can barely hold itself "inside russian territory supported for all the other systems" against invading f35s.
It's designed to kill F-22 just like Su-27 was designed to kill F-15. Russians don't fail in their goals. They have world's best IADS, best hypersonic weapons, best ICBMs and there is no reason why Su-57 would fail to meet its goal. Look how Su-30 MKI and BrahMos became two game-changing weapons of the latest Ops after MKI was trashed by everyone for its so called huge RCS, lol.

Regarding Su-57's stealth; the IRST ball can rotate backwards when not in use and its back side is covered in RAM. So, don't think it is any problem. Anyways, the point is that for us it is good enough to kill Chinese Stealth jets and give us breathing space till AMCA is full combat ready(~2040). Very soon we shall hear some progress regarding this front.
 
We will get Su-57Es within this decade but thankfully with full source-codes so that we could intergrate any weapons with it. Su-57MKI(2-seat version) is going to be made in India from 2030-35. From then onwards AMCA shall take over. The roadmap is being secretly discussed and the world will know in due time
IMHO any imports beyond 2030 doesn't meet our needs. We've already enough in the pipeline to cater to emerging threats then. Our need is immediate, not a decade later.
Su57, while better than any other non stealth platform, is not a "stealth killer" or an equivalent that can take on f35 with it's unique traits according to russian doctrine, it can barely hold itself "inside russian territory supported for all the other systems" against invading f35s.
In our case the Su-57 will go up against the J-20 not the F-35 & since the former two are LO as opposed to VLO I believe the Su-57 with the aid of the IACCS & other sensors we're adding like the VHF / UHF radars,OTHR , SBS etc will be in a position to take the Chinese on .
 
IMHO any imports beyond 2030 doesn't meet our needs. We've already enough in the pipeline to cater to emerging threats then. Our need is immediate, not a decade later.
Su-57 import should happen within this decade. PAF would also get 40 odd J-35As within this decade. From 2030-35/40, Su-57MKI(hopefully 2-seat version) would be domestically produced just like MKI with full Indian systems and avionics. It would be a semi-domestic jet just like our MKI and a complement to AMCA rather than its competition.
In our case the Su-57 will go up against the J-20 not the F-35 & since the former two are LO as opposed to VLO I believe the Su-57 with the aid of the IACCS & other sensors we're adding like the VHF / UHF radars, SBS etc will be in a position to take the Chinese on .
It's is designed to kill both F-22 & F-35. J-20 & J-35 would be toast.
 
It's designed to kill F-22 just like Su-27 was designed to kill F-15.
J20 can kill f22, f35 can kill f22.
The only thing 5th gen in f22 is stealth and super cruise.
In terms of sensors, it's the most outdated stealth jet in service.

Even a non stealth f18sh EW growler varient got a kill against f22 in an exercise, the same EW growler won't stand a chance against f35.


Look how Su-30 MKI and BrahMos became two game-changing weapons of the latest Ops after MKI was trashed by everyone for its so called huge RCS, lol.
First "Against pakistan".
Second Su30 mki mainly because of brahmos carrying standoff capabilities, were not buying stealth jet for "standoff capabilities".


the IRST ball can rotate backwards when not in use and its back side is covered in RAM. So, don't think it is any problem
But when it is used, it increases the rcs of su57 to an extent, that it can be called a LO jet, the lowest rcs LO jet, but
not a vlo/stealth jet.
With an eots dome, you can use irst passively while still maintaining stealth, though at the cost of some performance loss.



Anyways, the point is that for us it is good enough to kill Chinese Stealth jets and give us breathing space till AMCA is full combat ready(~2040).
Compared to other available options that we can buy, it is the best option, Capabilities wise.
But it's not an equal to j20.
But if we're already gonna mki the su57, then we can also demand some design changes in su57 to make it more stealthy, bring it's frontal stealth equal to j20, then combined with it's other features it would become better than j20.

Post in thread 'Air Engagement of Operation Sindoor : Analysis' Air Engagement of Operation Sindoor : Analysis
 
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since the former two are LO as opposed to VLO I
Both are vlo.

But while j20 is decently vlo( though little bit behind f35 in stealth from front), but su57 is "barely" vlo.

Su57's stealth is low enough that a fighter jet sized radar( taking a standard 1500 trm aesa radar here, with 150+km tracking range against 0.5m2 target) can detect it beyond wvr distances.
And when irst of su57 is working, it can be detected at even 100+km away by that standard radar.


While both j20 and f35 can only be detected within wvr distances by that standard radar, and at those distances irst had better chances of detecting stealth jets than radars, even when environmental conditions are not great.
 
J20 can kill f22, f35 can kill f22.
The only thing 5th gen in f22 is stealth and super cruise.
In terms of sensors, it's the most outdated stealth jet in service.
F-22 is still the most feared and deadiest aerial adversary any jet would face today.
Even a non stealth f18sh EW growler varient got a kill against f22 in an exercise, the same EW growler won't stand a chance against f35.
One off cases don't make a difference.
First "Against pakistan".
Second Su30 mki mainly because of brahmos carrying standoff capabilities, were not buying stealth jet for "standoff capabilities".
MKI did amazing work in air-to-air domain as well. If it wasn't for MKIs, we would have lost more than one Rafale to be precise.
But when it is used, it increases the rcs of su57 to an extent, that it can be called a LO jet, the lowest rcs LO jet, but
not a vlo/stealth jet.
As per the simulation done by @Stealthflanker, even with IRST ball in use, its frontal RCS is around -27dBsm IIRC. So, it is stealth. And this is only a computer run simulation, actual Felon is way more stealthy than that.
With an eots dome, you can use irst passively while still maintaining stealth, though at the cost of some performance loss.
EOTS is basically to hunt mobile SAMs. Su-57 is designed basically for air-superiority.
Compared to other available options that we can buy, it is the best option, Capabilities wise.
But it's not an equal to j20.
I would still rate a Felon in IAF's hands above any J-20 or J-35.

But if we're already gonna mki the su57, then we can also demand some design changes in su57 to make it more stealthy, bring it's frontal stealth equal to j20, then combined with it's other features it would become better than j20.

Post in thread 'Air Engagement of Operation Sindoor : Analysis' Air Engagement of Operation Sindoor : Analysis
Let's see what our demands are. But having an EOTS with a 2-seat version is a good idea.
 
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F-22 is still the most feared and deadiest aerial adversary any jet would face today.
How is that a argument?
No body with actual knowledge fears f22 against su57, j20.
It's general populace hype.


One off cases don't make a difference.
They do, they expose vunrabilities, vunrablity that f22 is relatively easy to jam, the same vunrability that f35 doesn't have.

MKI did amazing work in air-to-air domain as well. If it wasn't for MKIs, we would have lost more than one Rafale to be precise.
Yeah, Let's try do that against stealth jets also then.



As per the simulation done by @Stealthflanker, even with IRST ball in use, its frontal RCS is around -27dBsm IIRC
No, where did you get the number?
It's rcs in simulation is between 0.3-0.8m2.
If we apply ram that absorb 20dbsm( standard)
Then the no. We get is -15 to -20 dbsm at most, not -27dbsm, and that is when irst is also assumed to be covered by this ram, I.e. closed irst.
Open irst causes rcs spike of 0.1m2, I.e 10dbsm.
1000013494.png

Essentially, with irst closed and assumed RAM su57 has frontal rcs in range of 0.01-0.03 m2.
With
With irst open it's rcs becomes more than 0.1m2, essential entering LO level, most stealthy LO but not VLO.

In comparison.
J20 when we apply -20dbsm ram, has rcs value in 0.001-0.005 m2 range.
F35 will be 0.0005-0.001m2 range.

As you can see j20'a frontal rcs is much closer to f35 than to su57.
Su57 with irst closed is barely vlo.
J20 in terms of stealth, while lower than f35, is in same realm of f35, not su57.







EOTS is basically to hunt mobile SAMs. Su-57 is designed basically for air-superiority.
Eots is a stealthy crystal dome has houses irst and laser designator I'm case of f35.
Su57 also has irst, but is not housed in any stealthy dome unlike f35 and j20.
And already showed to effect of irst when it's working on rcs of su57.

I would still rate a Felon in IAF's hands above any J-20 or J-35.
I wouldn't, not in its current form.

Let's see what our demands are. But having an EOTS with a 2-seat version is a good idea.
Better than other options than we have I guess, but putting thar irst in a stealthy housing is a must demand we should make.